A Stanley Cup Final Rematch

In 1983, Wayne Gretzky made his first Stanley Cup Final appearance and the Oilers lost to the Islanders.  In 1984, Edmonton won the rematch.  In 2008, Sidney Crosby made his first Stanley Cup Final appearance and the Penguins lost to the Red Wings.  In 2009, Pittsburgh won the rematch.  In 2024, Conor McDavid made his first Stanley Cup Final appearance and the Oilers lost to the Panthers.  Will the trend continue in 2025?

It's crazy how there's only been three Stanley Cup Final rematches in the last 40 years and each one has a chance to follow a similar script.  The future Hall of Fame captain who lost on his first try taking on the same team as the year before.  And, if history does repeat itself, Canada's 32-year Stanley Cup drought will finally be over.

The Panthers back in the Stanley Cup Final for the third consecutive season, as the Prince of Wales Trophy has, like many Northerners before it, retired to the State of Florida.  Six straight years with either the Lighting or Panthers playing for the Cup.  And, with the Panthers' style of play and how conducive it is to playoff dominance, it's conceivable that this could continue for a while (or at least until the salary cap catches up to them). 

As we've seen over the past three postseasons, the Panthers just wear you down.  Their defense is what makes them so hard to beat in a best-of-seven.  Especially if they get the lead and can lock down even more.  Having Sergei Bobrovsky certainly helps, but he also doesn't really need to do much because they let so few shots actually get through.

Florida's 12-5 in the playoffs.  They've allowed two or fewer goals in 10 of those 17 games, including three shutouts.  And they completely overwhelmed Carolina in the Eastern Conference Final.  I don't know if it was the Hurricanes, the Panthers or a combination, but Carolina looked exhausted the entire series.  More than that, the Hurricanes were totally overmatched.  Florida was the better team from the moment the puck dropped in Game 1.

Edmonton, meanwhile, has been the best team in the entire playoffs.  Since going down 0-2 in the first round against the Kings, the Oilers are 12-2.  And one of those losses was because of their terrible third period in Game 1 against Dallas.  You take out that period, and the Oilers outscored the Stars 22-6 the rest of the series!  It was complete domination.

They're the highest-scoring team in the playoffs by a wide margin.  It isn't just the usual suspects, either.  McDavid has 26 points and Draisaitl has 25, but 20 different players have points and 19 have scored.  The goals have been pretty evenly distributed, too.  Eight different Oilers have at least five goals and nobody has more than seven.  So, it's not just the top guys.  The offense can come from anywhere.  All four lines and all six defensemen.

Let's not forget about their goaltending.  Because it's been tremendous!  Stuart Skinner was awful in those first two games against LA and was replaced by Calvin Pickard.  Pickard went 6-0 before getting hurt in Game 2 against Vegas, which put Skinner back in net.  He's been sensational since, going 6-2 with three shutouts, including a 1-0 overtime victory in the clincher against the Golden Knights.

I'd say this is a matchup of Edmonton's offense against Florida's defense, but the Panthers have held up their end of the bargain on the offensive end, as well.  They scored at least five goals in all four of their wins over Carolina, and have either five or six in seven of their 10 games since dropping the first two against the Maple Leafs.  In fact, they've scored five or six goals in nine of their 12 playoff wins.  And, they, too, have been getting contributions from everybody.

If there's an X factor for Florida, it's the fact that they have a few key players who weren't on the roster last season.  Brad Marchand has obviously won the Cup in Boston, but Seth Jones hasn't.  Nate Schmidt hasn't either.  The rest of the Panthers want it just as badly for them as they do for themselves.

But, of course, the Oilers are extra motivated after falling short last year.  They know that McDavid can't be considered in the same category as Gretzky and Crosby until he wins the Cup.  And you know all of Canada will be rooting for Edmonton to finally end that 32-year streak.  Then there's 40-year-old Corey Perry.  He won the Cup in Anaheim, but has lost in the Final four times in the last five years with four different teams.  Will he make it five in six or finally get his name put on the Cup for a second time?

Last year, Florida won the first three games before Edmonton rallied to force a Game 7.  This year's series should be much different.  For starters, the first two games are in Edmonton.  That shouldn't really be an issue for the Panthers.  They've started all three series on the road and are 8-2 on the road in the playoffs.  The Oilers are 6-1 at home, though, and that home ice advantage could definitely come into play.  Especially with the amount of travel the teams will need to do if it goes the distance.

Games 1 & 2 will be huge.  Neither team is winning four out of five, so neither can afford to go down 0-2.  Especially Edmonton.  Because the Panthers will just wear them down if that happens.  It also feels weird to say it'll come down to the goaltending between the two highest-scoring teams in the playoffs, but doesn't it always come down to the goaltending?  Skinner will need to come up big, and the Oilers will need to take advantage of the few offensive chances they do get.

Ultimately, though, I think the fact that these teams played last year will be the biggest difference.  There's a reason why Gretzky and Crosby won the rematches.  The 1984 Oilers and 2009 Penguins were better teams than they were the year before.  So are the 2025 Oilers.  Conor McDavid does indeed follow in their footsteps and win the Stanley Cup for the first time in his career.  Oilers in seven.