The Australian Open really sneaks up on you. You get through all of the business of Christmas and New Year's then, BAM!, they're playing tennis halfway around the world where it's the middle of the summer and daytime while there are sub-freezing temperatures in the middle of the night where you're watching. It's become even more jarring since they went to the Sunday start (aka Saturday night in the U.S.). And this year, to add to the fun, the Australian Open warmup tournaments started before the calendar flipped to 2025!
I can still remember when the Australian Open final was on the same day as the Super Bowl! Now it starts on the same day as the Wild Card round. The finals are still the same time they've always been. It just seems so much earlier in relation to the NFL schedule. And the fact that the year starts, then there's immediately a Grand Slam tennis tournament will always catch you a bit off guard.
Anyway, we're here, and it's time for the 2025 Australian Open. The tournament has actually already started. And it's still the most unpredictable Grand Slam of the four. For a while, Novak Djokovic would just show up and win. Then last year, he lost to Jannik Sinner in the semifinals. Sinner would go on to win the title, and the US Open, and finish as the year-end No. 1. Djokovic, meanwhile, would go without a Grand Slam title for the first time 2017 (although, he did get the Olympic gold, which was the thing he most wanted in 2024).
As a result, Djokovic's ranking has slipped so far that he's only the No. 7 seed here. Not that anyone thinks that matters. As long as he's in Australia, he's among the favorites. Although, he's no longer the favorite. There are several other contenders capable of lifting the trophy. It's also weird that, with Nadal and Murray now officially joining Federer in retirement, the 37-year-old Djokovic is suddenly the "old" guy.
He's an "old" guy who's still got plenty left in the tank, though. Djokovic plays less now (another reason why his ranking has dropped) and focuses primarily on the Grand Slams. He's still sitting on 24 Grand Slams, which is tied for the all-time record, and 99 career titles. It would only be fitting for him to reach both milestones by winning the tournament where he's had his most success for an 11th time.
With all that being said, it won't be an easy road for Djokovic. So, if he's going to win an 11th Australian Open title, he'll have to earn it. If the seedings hold, Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz would meet in the quarterfinals, with the winner then facing Alexander Zverev (the Tokyo Olympic gold medalist and the best player on Tour yet to win a Slam).
It's not like things on the other side of the draw are much easier, either. Sure, we avoided the possibility of a Djokovic-Sinner semifinal rematch (or a potential quarterfinal matchup). Instead, we could get a rematch of last year's final between Sinner and Daniil Medvedev. Sinner came back from two sets down to win that one for his first career Grand Slam title. Medvedev's won a US Open and been to the final of both hardcourt Slams multiple times, so you know he's a very capable hardcourt player. And he's a very legitimate contender for the title.
So, this isn't your typical Australian Open where Djokovic just shows up and wins the tournament. I can really see any of those five winning, which isn't something I'm used to saying about the Australian Open on the men's side. And, while I don't necessarily consider them "favorites" on the same level as the others, a run by US Open finalist Taylor Fritz or top Aussie Alex de Minaur wouldn't surprise me. Really, this is the most unpredictable men's Australian Open in quite a while.
Ultimately, though, I think Sinner and Djokovic are the two best hardcourt players in the world right now. It would be great to see them go head-to-head in a rematch of last year's semifinal, this time in the final. And I'm not counting Djokovic out. He's actually got a bit of a chip on his shoulder this year, which is dangerous for everyone else. He wins Australian Open No. 11, Grand Slam No. 25 and tournament No. 100 of his brilliant career.
On the women's side, there's no debate about who's the best hardcourt player in the world. It's Aryna Sabalenka, and it isn't even close. She's the two-time defending champion and also won the US Open last year. Sabalenka is now No. 1 in the world, as well, which makes her the clear favorite.
If not Sabalenka, who else then? How about Zheng Qinwen? She lost to Sabalenka in the final last year, then went on to win Olympic gold and make the quarterfinals at the US Open. Zheng is seeded fifth here. Although, she did get a bit of a bad draw with Sabalenka in her quarter. The winner of that match is a good bet to win the title.
Both of the top Americans, Coco Gauff and Jessica Pegula, are in the other quarter on that side of the draw. Gauff was a semifinalist here and Pegula was a finalist at the US Open last year. They've definitely both got a shot. But they're also in a very difficult section that also includes Naomi Osaka and Paula Badosa. I really can see any of the four taking on the Sabalenka-Zheng winner.
Most of the threats on the women's side are on the top half of the draw. Someone on the bottom half obviously has to make the final, though, and if there's an upset somewhere along the way, who knows what can happen? And the bottom half does have both Iga Swiatek and Vika Azarenka, so I wouldn't say nobody has a chance. I just think it's far less likely. And there's always that random women's semifinalist, which I think the bottom half of the draw will provide us with.
After her dominant run at the top of the women's game for several years, Swiatek has been overtaken by Sabalenka for the No. 1 ranking. She hasn't always played the best in Melbourne, either. Outside of a semifinal appearance in 2022, she hasn't been past the fourth round in five other trips. Azarenka won her only two Grand Slam titles in Australia, but that was more than a decade ago and she's 35 years old. Although, she's always been an outstanding hardcourt player, and this wouldn't be the first time she's made an unexpected deep run.
There are a few others to keep an eye on. Elena Rybakina is the 6-seed and she was a finalist here in 2023. Jasmine Paolini had a career year last year, starting with a fourth-round run here. How will she follow it up? That's a lot of points to defend. Ons Jabeur, meanwhile, saw her ranking drop when she had to end her 2024 season early due to injury. This is her first tournament back. If she's healthy, she's not a bad sleeper pick.
Who are we kidding, though? It's Sabalenka's tournament to lose. As long as she gets by Zheng (which she should), her path to a third straight Australian Open title is pretty smooth. She gets it done against Rybakina in the final, further cementing her hold both on No. 1 and on her status as the best women's hardcourt player in the world.
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