Hard Pass On Geographic Divisions

Sometimes, I think Rob Manfred breaks news just to give fans a heads up that change is coming to MLB.  Other times, I think it's just to troll people.  His comments during the Little League Classic on Sunday night fall into the latter category.  It achieved its purpose.  It got people all fired up, mostly against the idea, and there's been two days of mock divisions drawn up.  But, to me, it was all just to get the reaction.  Because there's no way the owners would go for an East/West alignment instead of the American and National Leagues.

Now, will there be expansion sometime within the next 10 years?  Most likely.  Baseball hasn't expanded since 1998 and it's no secret that they'd like to add two teams.  And that expansion, whenever it happens, will obviously have to result in realignment, probably into eight divisions of four.  Don't expect much beyond that, though.  Because the drastic realignment Manfred suggested, despite some "experts" suggesting it's further along than many might think, will be a very hard sell.

This isn't the NBA or NHL we're talking about.  Those two leagues have always been divided almost entirely along geographic lines.  It's more like the NFL, which has been the AFC and NFC since the merger in 1970.  That merger, of course, was the combining of two completely separate entities--the AFL and NFL.  Just like how the American League and National League are, for the most part, two completely separate entities.

And settling on the divisional alignment after the AFL/NFL merger wasn't exactly an easy task.  The Steelers, Browns and Colts all agreed to move the AFC, but that was about the extent of it.  Things got so complicated with how they'd configure the NFC that it ultimately came down to Pete Rozelle's secretary picking one of the options out of a hat.  That's how we ended up with the Dallas Cowboys in the NFC East, which makes absolutely no sense geographically, but you also can't picture that division without the Cowboys.  (That was also the only one that kept the four current NFC North teams together, and it's impossible to picture those four ever being separated.)

The National League was founded in 1876.  That's 150 years of history.  The American League was founded in 1901 and has 125 years of history of its own.  Going to an "Eastern Conference" and "Western Conference" wouldn't just erase a lot of that history (and for what reason?), it would eliminate rivalries that are built on that history (again, why?) and, frankly, confuse people more than anything else.

It's because of that history that the All*Star Game and World Series actually mean something.  The AL and NL didn't even play by the same rules until 2022!  The lines have been a little blurred because of the universal DH and the new schedule format in which you face every other team in the Majors every year, but that distinction is still important.  Winning the "Eastern Conference" pennant doesn't have the same cachet as winning the National League pennant.  Likewise, the AL and NL always wanted to beat each other in the All*Star Game.  It's why baseball's All*Star Game, ridiculous "swing-off" tiebreakers aside, is actually still relevant while the other three got so stupid they could do away with them entirely and I doubt anyone would even notice.

To eliminate the leagues and base divisions entirely on geographic is easier than it sounds, and you can bet there would be plenty of pushback from all sides.  Do you really think the Cubs and Cardinals, who've been grouped together for 125 years, would really go for being separated?  Same thing with the Orioles, who've been in the same division as the Yankees and Red Sox since the AL East was formed in 1969.  You try telling them that they won't be in the same division anymore!

Matchups like Yankees-Mets, Dodgers-Angels and Cubs-White Sox would lose something, too.  Part of what makes those series between intracity or intrastate rivals so special is because they're in two different leagues and don't face each other that often.  Those matchups would lose something if they weren't just in the same league, but the same division.  Beyond that, it would be impossible for them to meet in the World Series.  Which is just stupid on so many levels.

I'm not even sure how they think these divisions would work, either.  Manfred mentioned something about travel and having two West Coast teams play postseason games in that late time slot, but there are only eight teams in the Mountain or Pacific time zone.  Houston and Texas are in the AL West, but they're in the Central time zone.  So, even if you put one of the expansion teams out west, there would still be seven teams in the Central time zone in the Western Conference, and you'd still have an Eastern/Central time zone team playing the Western Conference pennant winner in the World Series.  (This is the same sport where the Atlanta Braves were in the NL West for 25 years suddenly caring about travel.)

When the NHL realigned in 2013, they put all 16 Eastern time zone teams in the same conference and everybody else in the Western Conference.  Baseball couldn't even do that, though, unless both expansion teams were in the East (which seems unlikely), since there are only 14 teams in the Eastern time zone.  So, you'd be putting most, if not all, of the teams in the Central time zone in the Western Conference, which would entirely defeat the purpose!

Meanwhile, who's asking for this?  Who's been watching baseball thinking, "You know what MLB needs?  Geographic divisions!"  Especially when the existing divisions ARE geographic!  The entire point of having the Astros switch leagues a decade ago was because they were the furthest west and they needed somebody to move to balance the leagues at 15 teams apiece!  And, like I said, getting teams to agree to realignment within their existing leagues will be enough of a challenge when the time comes.

That travel thing is nothing more than a ridiculous (and convenient) excuse, too.  Unless they want to change the schedule back to where you're only playing the teams in your league, everybody will still have to make multiple cross-country trips per season.  The West coast teams will have more travel regardless simply because there aren't as many of them and they're further apart.  Giving them more games in the Pacific time zone and fewer in the Eastern time zone won't change that.  Seattle's still a lot further away than everyone.

His point about the postseason really made no sense!  Manfred used Boston-Anaheim as an example of an East Coast vs. West Coast series that would potentially have a 10:00 start time where Red Sox fans have to stay up (I feel compelled to mention here that when the Red Sox played the Angels in the 2009 ALDS, Game 3 at Fenway started at noon Eastern, 9 AM Pacific, but I digress).  Yes, but you'd at least have the Red Sox fans staying up, likely giving the game higher ratings as a result. 

Also, they hardly ever even schedule 10:00 Eastern playoff games!  The Dodgers have played another NL West team in the Division Series five years in a row (when 7:00 Pacific start times would conceivably not be a problem).  You want to know how many of those games have started at 10:00 Eastern?  One!  In 2022 against the Padres.  Most of the Dodgers' NLDS games have started at either 5:00 or 6:00 Pacific.  And all LCS games are scheduled for either 4:00 or 8:00 Eastern, so it's only the Wild Card or Division Series we'd even be talking about here!

They've moved away from 10:00 postseason starts regardless of who's playing in them, partially because of the lower ratings.  Which is something they've been able to do because FOX and TBS split the postseason.  What Manfred saying that says to me is that he wants to add 10:00 games.  Not take them away.  Which would only be convenient for people on the West Coast.  Having games start (and, thus, end) later wouldn't get more people to watch them.  It would do the exact opposite, in fact.  (The lowest-rated NLCS in history was Diamondbacks-Rockies in 2007, when no game started earlier than 9:00 Eastern.)

Expansion is inevitable.  Everyone acknowledges that.  That expansion will result in realignment.  Everyone understands that, too.  But that realignment shouldn't be as drastic as the Commissioner is suggesting and some seem to think is a done deal.  Because logistically, it doesn't really make sense.  Beyond that, though, if it ain't broke, don't fix it.  And MLB's system of an American and National League, each with an East, Central and West division isn't broken.  So, why "fix" it?  Especially when that's only gonna make things worse!

Six Weeks to Go

We've reached mid-August.  Which means back-to-school and preseason football.  It also means we've reached the three-quarter mark of the MLB season.  Every team has roughly 40 games left, and the teams currently in playoff position do look like the 12 best teams in baseball.  While the playoff races are by no means over, I think we're looking at battles for division titles and positioning more than teams currently on the outside challenging for wild cards.

And, once we get to the postseason, anything can happen.  I really don't think there will be a clear favorite heading into October.  Because, while some of the playoff teams are in better shape than others, they're all flawed.  They're all just as capable of making a run as they are of crashing out in their opening series.

Blue Jays: Toronto is the biggest example of what I'm talking about.  The Blue Jays aren't nearly as good as they think they are.  They're practically unbeatable at home, which will be their clearest advantage in the playoffs.  They're also impossible to strike out, so, since they put the ball in play, you have to play rock solid defense against them.  Being sound fundamentally, tough to beat at home, and having solid pitching makes the Blue Jays a very tough out.  Tough, but not impossible.

Red Sox: Boston is also really good at home, but sub-.500 on the road.  So, it's incredibly important for them to catch the Blue Jays and/or hold off the Yankees and Mariners if they want to play at Fenway.  I'm also not sure about Boston's pitching behind Garret Crochet.  They'll get in, but they won't be a favorite.

Yankees: As annoying as Brian Cashman and Aaron Boone's constant votes of confidence about a team that's been awful for two months are, the Yankees have never really been in danger of dropping out of the playoffs.  And, if they can play like they did in April and May, look out!  If not, they've got early exit written all over them.  If they hit like they can, get good starting pitching and the bullpen actually does its job, though, look out!  That's what makes this team so frustrating to watch.  Everyone knows what they're capable of, but they're so inconsistent.

Tigers: Detroit has been the best team in the American League all season and has the best rotation in the AL.  The Tigers have dropped off after their torrid start, but they've built such a lead and the rest of the AL Central is so weak that they have nothing to worry about.  And that pitching can take them far.  Detroit will be a very dangerous team in October.

Astros: Despite losing so many players for extended periods due to injuries, it's been business as usual in Houston.  Losing Josh Hader for the year was a big blow, though.  Especially since that likely takes Bryan Abreu out of that setup role where he's been so valuable.  It's really questionable whether they'll hold off the Mariners.  Still, this is the Astros we're talking about.  They're in the ALCS every freakin' year for a reason.  Although, seeing them have to navigate the playoffs while not holding one of the top two seeds could be interesting.

Mariners: This is my pick to win the AL pennant.  Which is something the Mariners have never done.  Can the only team that's never been to the World Series finally get there?  They have the pitching, and now they have the lineup to go with it.  Seattle is that team nobody will want to face in the playoffs.  I think they need to win the AL West, though.  Otherwise, the travel will be a killer.

Phillies: Last season, I was very high on the Phillies heading into the postseason and they ended up losing the Division Series to the Mets.  Their big issue last year was the bullpen.  This year, they went out and got the Twins' Jhoan Duran to be their closer.  If they hadn't done that, the same fate would be awaiting them.  However, with the upgraded bullpen, an excellent rotation and a solid lineup, Philadelphia will be among the favorites.

Mets: All the Mets need to do is get in.  Like New York's other team, they were otherworldly in April and May before falling off a cliff in the summer.  Everyone knows the Mets are plenty capable of turning it around, especially with that lineup.  The question is whether they'll get the pitching.  If they do, their seed doesn't matter.  As they proved last year.

Brewers: I have no idea how Milwaukee is this good.  Nor do I have any idea how long this ridiculous run will last.  I'm also worried the Brewers have another first round exit in their future.  This is a team that's about to make its seventh postseason appearance in eight seasons, yet hasn't won a playoff series since sweeping the Rockies in the 2018 NLDS.  And whoever they face in the Division Series this season will be good and plenty capable of beating them.

Cubs: For a while, Cubs fans thought that this year would be just like 2016.  Then reality set in, the Brewers stopped losing entirely, and the Cubs dropped to a wild card position.  As a wild card, they're likely looking at playing either the Phillies, Mets or Padres.  I don't see them beating any of those three teams.  Which is why, while I see them making the playoffs, I can't see the Cubs making a deep run once they get there.

Dodgers: San Diego making them fight for the NL West title could be the best thing for the Dodgers.  The defending champs won't coast into the postseason.  Because they can't.  Talent-wise, they're obviously the best team.  What will their pitching look like, though?  That seems to always be the question.  And, don't forget, last year notwithstanding, this team does have a history of getting knocked out of the playoffs early.  That short series can be dangerous.

Padres: Don't be surprised to see a Seattle-San Diego World Series.  Because I think the Padres might be the best team in the National League right now.  (Yes, I'm aware the Brewers have had two winning streaks of at least 11 games since the All*Star Break.)  I like everything San Diego did at the deadline.  And all those moves were made with the postseason in mind.  Still, there isn't much that separates the six National League playoff teams.  So, the Padres winning the pennant and losing in the Wild Card Series seem equally plausible.

Marching Towards A Lockout

A few weeks ago, Rob Manfred was in the Phillies clubhouse meeting with the players when he was cursed out and told to leave by Bryce Harper.  What was it that got Harper so heated?  A salary cap.  The owners want one.  For the players, it's a non-starter.  As soon as Manfred brought it up, Harper immediately shut the conversation down.  Which tells you all you need to know about how the players feel about even discussing a salary cap.

Manfred's visit to the Phillies was just one stop on his tour of all 30 teams.  The goal was to gauge the players' concerns/priorities heading towards negotiations for the new Collective Bargaining Agreement.  The current CBA, which was signed in 2022 after a three-month lockout, runs through the end of next season.  And everyone is already bracing themselves for another lockout after the 2026 season.  Noting I'm not saying the possibility of a lockout.  Because it would be absolutely shocking if there isn't one!  And it's expected that this one will last longer than the last.

Tony Clark, the Executive Director of the MLBPA, indicated that the owners have already made it clear they intend to lock out the players when the CBA expires in December 2026.  At the All*Star Game, Pete Alonso admitted that, while no one is talking about it, the players have resigned themselves to the high likelihood it'll happen.  They're preparing themselves for it to be a long one, too.  Because the players will fight tooth & nail against a salary cap.  Manfred, meanwhile, is being coy and has never used the term "salary cap" in public.  The players all know the owners want one, though.  And it'll be at the heart of the CBA negotiations.

Major League Baseball, of course, has never had a salary cap.  Among the four major sports, i's the only one without one.  Instead, they have the luxury tax system, where teams can spend whatever they want, but if they pass certain thresholds, they're charged different amounts depending on how much they go over.  While some teams use the luxury tax as a sort of soft cap, others like the Dodgers and Mets have no issue paying the luxury tax.  Player salaries have skyrocketed as a result.

It's fairly obvious why the players like the current system.  Juan Soto has 51 million reasons a year to like it.  As long as they're willing to pay the luxury tax penalties, there's nothing stopping owners from signing multiple players to massive contracts.  Large market teams like the Dodgers, Yankees, Mets and Phillies have taken full advantage of that.  They have World Series aspirations every year and spend like it. 

Other teams have taken a different approach.  They spend the bare minimum on salaries while still collecting their portion of the revenue sharing pie.  That's beyond frustrating for the players.  Although, during the last CBA negotiations, they were also opposed to the seemingly obvious solution of a salary floor.  Why?  Because they think once a salary floor is in place, a salary cap won't be too far away.

The owners are frustrated on both ends.  There are plenty of teams that aren't happy about those who choose not to spend, but have no issue taking in their share of revenue sharing money.  There are also those teams that don't like the large market clubs' ability to freely spend, which they think give those teams an unfair advantage.  And those competitive balance concerns are the owners' biggest issue heading into CBA negotiations.

Making that payroll disparity an even bigger concern moving forward are the continued worries about regional sports networks.  We've already seen a few teams have their local TV rights taken over by MLB, and the thinking is that there'll likely be more in the future as the RSN model continues to be threatened.  The large market teams with solid RSNs don't have that problem.  And it further gives them an advantage since they bring in TV revenue that teams in smaller markets can't match.  The owners of those mid-level teams (the ones who can't be big spenders, but aren't actively not spending money) would like to see those scales balanced, at least somewhat.

So, they're at an impasse.  And it's not something that'll easily be solved in the next year and a half before the current CBA expires.  The owners will push for a salary cap that I'm not even sure they all want.  They also want assurances that teams can't just pocket their revenue sharing dollars while not making any effort to be competitive on the field.  And, if the owners can't even agree, how are they gonna present something to the players, who'll have their own list of things that they want addressed?

That's why there's absolutely no confidence that anything can get done without a lockout.  The sides are so far apart on the most basic issues and neither seems very willing to budge.  There's also some unresolved tension from the last CBA negotiations and the resulting lockout.  As a result, both sides expect the negotiations to be contentious.  Especially since they aren't even close to agreeing on basically any point.

Ultimately, though, this comes down to the owners.  Only ownership can initiate a lockout, and all it takes is eight unhappy owners to make it happen.  That's pretty much a certainty.  Because you'll have teams like the Dodgers that have no issues with the current system and, like the players, don't want a salary cap.  You'll also have teams like the Marlins who don't spend any money and don't want a salary floor.  Even if those two groups band together, there are still plenty of teams in the middle that aren't fans of the current system.  And they'll be the ones with all the power regarding whether there's a lockout or not.

What makes the looming threat of a lockout even more frustrating is how, overall, Baseball is in a very healthy position financially.  In 2024, the sport brought in $12.1 million.  So, you would think there's motivation on the owners' part to maintain that place of strength.  It's actually just the opposite, though.  Because the system is broken and the teams in the middle know it.  And they feel a lockout is the only way to fix the problem. 

Getting 30 different owners with competing priorities all on the same page is easier said than done.  And, frankly, that's the biggest issue at play here.  The players actually agree with the general sentiment that there's a competitive balance problem.  They don't like the Dodgers deferring 90 percent of everybody's contract or the Mets spending more money on Juan Soto than the Marlins are spending on their entire roster, either.  The only thing they're adamantly against is a salary cap.

If the owners push for a salary cap, they'll have quite a fight on their hands.  The Commissioner, for all his faults, does seem to somewhat understand that.  The problem is he needs to get the owners to see it and make them come to some sort of compromise among themselves.  Until that happens, the chances of there not being a lockout are slim to none.  That's why, even though the CBA doesn't expire for another 16 months, the writing is on the wall.  Brace yourselves.  A lockout is coming.

The Corporate Olympics

In 1984, Los Angeles completely changed the Olympic Movement.  By financing the Games with private and corporate funding, as well as using existing venues and infrastructure, LA showed that you can host the Olympics and actually make a profit.  That model became a template that future Olympic host cities followed.  In 1984, Los Angeles will completely change the Olympic Movement again.  And once again, it'll be by the use of corporate dollars.

The 2028 Olympics will be the first with venue naming rights.  The Honda Center in Anaheim, home of the Ducks during hockey season, will be hosting Olympic volleyball...when it will be called the "Honda Center."  The temporary squash venue in the Universal Studios parking lot, meanwhile, will be called the "Comcast Squash Center at Universal Studios."  Comcast, of course, is NBC's parent company.  (It's also worth noting that LA28 and NBCUniversal are working together to coordinate Olympic sponsorships.)

This is obviously a historic change, and it's being done with the IOC's full support.  Honda and Comcast are just the first two naming rights sponsors to be announced, but you'd have to figure there will be plenty more.  Other qualifying LA28 partners will be able to keep their name on existing venues, while up to 19 temporary venues will also have naming rights on offer, with participants in the IOC's existing The Olympic Partner program getting first dibs.

A few key clarifications were also made.  The first is that existing venues will either keep their regular name or, should a naming-rights deal with that company not be reached, be given a generic one like in Olympics past.  So, there's no chance three of LA's most iconic venues--Dodger Stadium, the LA Coliseum and the Rose Bowl--will suddenly have corporate names during the Olympics.  Nor will SoFi Stadium be referred to as (for example) Coca-Cola Stadium.  It'll either be SoFi or "2028 Stadium" (the temporary Olympic name it was given on the competition schedule that was released last month).

This isn't a requirement, either.  I don't know why a venue naming-rights sponsor would pass on the opportunity, but, if the price is too high or they can't come to an agreement with the organizers, they have the assurance that some other corporation won't be able to come in and slap their name on the venue during the Olympics.  If they don't want to do it, it'll just be the generic name that would've been used anyway under the previous rules where corporate venue names can't be used.

Existing IOC rules about maintaining a clean field-of-play will still apply, as well.  Which means no sponsor names or logos on the playing surface.  I've always loved that about the Olympics.  The field of play has nothing on it but simple, Olympic branding.  That will continue.  Although, this does presumably mean they won't need to cover up the scoreboard (assuming it has the sponsor's name/logo on it) or, more importantly, cover up the venue's name on the outside.

It's been a long-standing and well-known rule that corporate names aren't allowed by the IOC or FIFA.  This is a practical and reasonable provision to protect IOC and FIFA sponsors.  It prevents free advertising for a non-IOC/FIFA sponsor or, worse, for the competitor of an IOC/FIFA sponsor.  Although, the result is an often ridiculous generic name for the venue ("Dallas World Cup Stadium," anyone?) that will only be used on TV and in anything printed.  People attending the event will still refer to the venue by its actual name or nickname, regardless of what its "official" name during the competition is.

That's a point LA28 President Casey Wasserman was quick to emphasize.  Gymnastics will be at the Lakers' and Kings' home arena (which I will always call "Staples Center," even though that's not its name anymore).  People aren't suddenly going to start calling it "Downtown Gymnastics Arena" during the Olympics just because that's the name the IOC is using.  Ditto about all the NFL stadiums being used at next year's World Cup.

I do wonder, though, how Toyota (an IOC sponsor) feels about its competitor, Honda, getting a naming rights opportunity during the Olympics.  Assuming the IOC will continue allowing venue naming rights moving forward, this is a question that will have to be answered.  Sometimes there's no conflict.  Delta is the Official Airline of Team USA, so it won't be an issue for the Delta Center to keep its name when the Winter Games return to Salt Lake City in 2034.  But what will happen when there is one?  Or will this be a situation like the NFL/NBA, where team sponsors are often different than the league sponsors.

Still, while this is a somewhat surprising development, it's also something that feels like it was a long time coming.  And inevitable.  Venue naming rights aren't a phenomenon exclusive to the United States or even North America.  I'd argue that more sporting venues around the world than not have corporate names.  It's rare to not have multiple venues at an Olympics referred to by a generic name for those two weeks (there's always at least one).

And, from the sounds of Wasserman's comments in the release, it appears this isn't a one-time thing, either.  LA's in a unique position in that these Olympics are being completely privately funded without any governmental support.  That's why these corporate partnerships are so important.  They're a necessary extra revenue source.  That extra revenue won't just benefit the LA Games.  It'll benefit the entire Olympic Movement.

They wisely won't let it get out of control, either.  Giving the corporations that already have naming rights to the facilities the first opportunity to keep them during the Olympics is a reasonable accommodation.  I'd argue that it makes things even more worthwhile for them, especially since they wouldn't otherwise see any benefit from such a major event being held in the venue.  If they pass (and I'm not sure why any of them would), it's not like it'll be open bidding.  That corporate free-for-all could lead to a financial windfall, but this gives existing Olympic sponsors more bang for their buck, which gives corporations more incentive to be an Olympic sponsor.

Broadcast rights are the biggest source of IOC revenue.  That doesn't figure to change.  Individual Olympic host cities don't reap much of a benefit from that, though.  When it comes to the cost of running the Games, they're mostly on their own.  Which is why corporate sponsorships are so necessary.  And venue naming rights are a far more lucrative opportunity for both the sponsor and the organizing committee alike.  There's money to be had in naming rights.  Which is why they've been sold at virtually every major league venue (and many college venues) in the U.S.

Don't be surprised if this is the start of a trend, either.  You know FIFA saw this announcement and thought about how much more money they could've made had they allowed Met Life, SoFi, AT&T, etc., to keep their names on their venues during the World Cup (for an additional price, of course).  So, while the LA28 Olympics will be the first with venue naming rights, they won't be the last.  And World Cup venue naming rights will almost certainly follow.

The Upcoming Hall of Fame Conundrums

Now that the Baseball and Pro Football Hall of Fame induction ceremonies are both in the rearview mirror, it's time to start looking ahead to January and February, when the Classes of 2026 will be announced.  I'm curious to see how the voting will go in each.  Because both sports are heading into a very interesting few years...for completely opposite reasons.  Baseball doesn't have a clear-cut first-ballot Hall of Famer on the horizon.  Football has so many that it's going to create a logjam it'll take years to clear.

Let's start with baseball.  Ichiro was as clear-cut a first-ballot Hall of Famer as there can be.  The next one to hit the ballot is Albert Pujols in 2028, followed by Miguel Cabrera in 2029.  The next three ballots not only don't feature a clear-cut first-ballot candidate, there's a question of if anybody will get in on any of them.  While that scenario is unlikely, it does mean that we'll probably have smaller classes with guys who've been waiting a while coming up over the next few Hall of Fame elections.  

The Pro Football Hall of Fame, meanwhile, most decidedly does NOT have the same problem!  First-year eligible candidates for the Class of 2026 include Drew Brees, Larry Fitzgerald, Frank Gore, Phillip Rivers and Jason Witten.  That could be a Hall of Fame class right there.  (And, while coaches are a different category voted on separately, Bill Belichick is also eligible for the first time in 2026.)  Then you have Ben Roethlisberger, Rob Gronkowski and Adrian Peterson (among others) in 2027.  And, in 2028, two of the spots are already taken by first-ballot locks--J.J. Watt and some guy who played quarterback for the Patriots and won a bunch of Super Bowls.

Not all of those guys will get in on the first ballot.  And those who don't will then roll over into the next year, making those ballots even more loaded than they already will be.  Which means some of these players who otherwise would've been first-ballot locks will end up waiting multiple years before they finally get that knock on their door and give that speech while wearing their gold jacket.  Not to mention the backlog that already exists, and it's conceivable that there could be years where all 15 finalists eventually end up making the Hall of Fame.

Complicating matters even more in football is how they have a maximum class size, so they're already limited in the number of players who can be inducted in a given year.  And, as we saw this year, they changed the voting system and having the maximum number of inductees is no longer guaranteed.  So, if they don't have a maximum class, that increases the backlog even more.  Which is both good and bad.  Because, while some players will have an extra long wait, it does guarantee that we'll have some outstanding Pro Football Hall of Fame classes in the coming years.

This isn't the first time this has happened in baseball.  From 2010-13, a total of four players were voted in by the writers, including a shutout in 2013.  Then three players were elected on the first ballot in each of the next two years (five of the six were starting pitchers).  After the shutout in 2013, the writers elected a total of 22 players in the next eight classes before another shutout in 2021, then only one player voted in by the writers in both 2022 and 2023.  They've elected three in each of the last two years.  It might be three total over the next three.

Once we hit 2028, though, it'll again be an onslaught of first-ballot locks.  Yadi Molina could easily get in on the first ballot with his buddy Pujols.  Zack Greinke is also eligible for the first time in 2029.  And, let's not forget who else is coming up the pipeline pretty soon.  While they haven't retired yet, Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer and Clayton Kershaw are all nearing the end of their careers.  If they all retire together, that'll be one outstanding Hall of Fame class!  (It's also possible they may be the last three starting pitchers elected to the Hall of Fame for quite a while.)

Going back to the years between the two times the writers didn't select anybody, those large classes could've easily been bigger.  Because Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Alex Rodriguez, Mark McGwire, etc., were all on those ballots, too.  The Steroid Era players created quite a backlog, especially because voters are limited to 10 selections.  That backlog only started clearing up after the Steroid Era players exhausted their eligibility.  Now, we're at the point where there's no longer a backlog.  The list of candidates simply isn't as strong.  Although, it also means that players who've been waiting a while stand a better chance of getting in.

In football, it's the exact opposite.  The list of finalists for the Hall of Fame will be so good that we'll see players waiting years who otherwise would've been first-ballot locks.  Take next year for example.  They're not putting in five first-ballot guys.  Fitzgerald will get in.  Brees probably will too.  The others may end up all having to wait.  How long is the question.  Because the candidates coming up behind them are equally strong.

Football's coming up on a backlog similar to the one baseball had when the Steroid Era guys were still on the ballot.  The next three years will be stacked.  In 2029, Aaron Donald joins the fray, but after that, it clears up a bit.  (If Aaron Rodgers retires after this season, he'll become eligible in 2031.)  Still, though, simply because of the quality of the field, some guys might not be getting in until then at the earliest.  And I'm talking about obvious sure-fire guys like Frank Gore and Ben Roethlisberger.  I haven't even mentioned the second-tier Hall of Fame-quality players like Andrew Whitworth, Luke Kuechly, Clay Matthews and Adam Vinatieri.  Plus all the guys who are already eligible and haven't gotten in yet. 

These stand to be loaded classes.  Football's maximum of five doesn't seem to be changing, so we're already guaranteed to see some otherwise first-ballot locks not get in on the first ballot.  Which is guaranteed to shock some of their supporters.  And, as much as I criticize the Pro Football Hall of Fame voters and the way the voting is conducted, I don't envy them and the task they have in front of them over the next few years.  Separating some of these candidates will be close to impossible.  And, I fear, will result in split votes.  Which will mean not enough reach the 80 percent required for election.  Which will mean we get classes that aren't the maximum.  Which will mean those quality candidates end up staying on the ballot for another year...when they'll be joined by a whole new group of quality candidates.  

Baseball's "softer" ballots coming up in the next few years, meanwhile, are good news for those borderline candidates who've been on the ballot for some time.  Things bode well for Carlos Beltran and Andruw Jones to get over the 75 percent threshold.  You'd also have to think someone like Chase Utley may see his vote total shoot up dramatically.  Would they stand to make such a leap with an Ichiro or an Albert Pujols or a Miguel Cabrera on the ballot?  Seems doubtful.

Since the online tracker has become a regular part of the Baseball Hall of Fame election, people have wondered why/how writers can vote for a guy one year and not the next or start voting for someone after years of not voting for him.  This is why/how.  Because it's not about whether a player is a Hall of Famer or not.  It's about how they compare to the other candidates up for election that year.  Sometimes the quality of the field is so good that you have Hall of Famers with absolutely no chance at induction.

We had that in baseball for quite a few years.  Now, baseball's entering a lull while football's Hall of Fame voters will have an impossible task on their hands.  The quality of the Pro Football Hall of Fame candidates will be so good that they can't get it wrong.  Which all but guarantees someone will think they did.  All because somebody they thought should be a first-ballot lock will end up having to wait an extra year.  Or two.  Or three.

Olympic Sports' NCAA Future

We're about a week away from the start of the 2025-26 NCAA season, the first where student-athletes will be receiving direct payments from their school's Athletic Department (in addition to their NIL deals).  It's up to the Athletic Departments to decide which athletes will get paid and how much, but the expectation is that most of it will be funneled into football and men's and women's basketball.  Which, along with new scholarship limitations, has people legitimately worried about the future of some Olympic sports at the highest level of the NCAA.

The scholarship thing may actually have the biggest impact.  In the past, the NCAA had scholarship limits.  For the most part, full scholarships were only offered in football and basketball.  Other teams were given a certain number of athletic scholarships that they could spread across the roster however they saw fit.  The result was a lot of partial scholarships, which would often be combined with academic scholarships to cover the full cost of attendance.  That's no longer the case.

Under the terms of the House settlement, there are no more partial athletic scholarships.  All scholarships must be full rides.  The previous scholarship limits have been replaced by roster limits.  There's a maximum number of players teams can have on the roster.  They can't carry the fourth goalie or the extra bullpen catcher since those guys now require scholarships.  No more walk-ons (who every school wants since they're paying full tuition).

This is obviously going to have a huge impact on so many sports.  Particularly men's sports since schools will still need to meet all Title IX requirements.  Division I baseball, for example, will have a maximum roster size of 34 players starting this season, all of whom will be on full scholarships.  The previous limit was 40.  So, teams will have at least six fewer players each.  Likely more than that since some of the 40 were either on partial scholarships or walk-ons.

That's great news for the Division II and III programs where those players will transfer.  However, it means Division I baseball will look extremely different.  As will every other sport that will have significantly smaller rosters.  And we've already seen some of those reductions (which affect some women's programs, too).

Washington State's track & field team has eliminated sprint and field events and will be a distance-only program moving forward.  This applies to both the men's and women's teams, and is a direct result of the House settlement.  Washington State has decided to take its limited scholarships and reduced roster and focus on the distance events.  With Washington State no longer sponsoring their event (which was the entire reason they came to the school in the first place), a number of the Cougars' sprinters, jumpers and throwers have already transferred.  Which is a trend that we'll likely continue to see as schools and programs shift their focuses.

Expect other track & field programs to follow Washington State's lead.  Sure, there will still be the schools like Oregon, Arkansas and Texas that see the value in a comprehensive track & field program and continue to emphasize all four areas of the sport.  There are others, though, that will determine that it's not feasible to do so with limited scholarships and roster sizes.  And, as a result, they'll end up doing exactly what Washington State did and focus on just the distance events (cross country has its own scholarships that are separate from track & field, and a distance runner can get a cross country scholarship while a jumper can't.)

Track & field and swimming are the two sports with the greatest percentage of international athletes.  While there are international athletes in every sport, it's the individual sports of track & field and swimming where they're most prominent.  The field at the NCAA Championships is usually the same quality as what you'll see at the World Championships or Olympics (with an equally diverse number of countries represented).  Many of them go immediately from wearing their NCAA uniform to competing for their nation on the continental or global stage, then back again. 

These international athletes were already receiving full scholarships, so that won't change.  But will we see fewer of them coming over and being given those scholarships with limited rosters?  Especially since that means an American won't be receiving that scholarship?  So, it's not just American student-athletes who are being affected. 

International athletes help programs win at the NCAA level, so there will still be a significant number who come over.  I have a feeling it won't be as many, however.  There will always be a place for those difference-makers who are good enough to compete on the world stage.  With limited exceptions, they may end up being the only ones competing in the NCAA for American universities pretty soon, though.  And that may be where the House settlement is felt the most.

One of the NCAA's greatest attributes is how it's such a good development system for so many Olympic sports.  Not just Team USA.  There are so many Olympians from so many countries who compete in the NCAA in a given year.  Every four years, the NCAA and its member schools proudly proclaim the number of Olympians, the countries they're representing and their sport.  And rightfully so!  Just as they've got every reason to be proud should any of those athletes win a medal.

While I've only mentioned track & field and swimming, the same applies for the other Olympic sports.  Whether it's fencing, gymnastics, rowing, wrestling, triathlon, beach volleyball or diving, there's a good chance somebody currently competing in the NCAA either was an Olympian in Paris or will be in LA.  Some go on to become Olympians in another sport.  And the U.S. National Team in virtually every team sport is made up of athletes who first competed in the NCAA.  There are plenty of non-American team-sport Olympians, too.

It's a legitimate concern that this Olympic feeder system will take a hit because of the new NCAA rules.  Olympic sports aren't revenue-generators.  Does that mean those programs will become expendable as NCAA institutions need to reconsider their finances to cover direct payments to athletes?  We've already seen plenty of big-time schools cut or reduce programs for budgetary reasons.  It would be shocking if there weren't more.  Which will mean fewer opportunities for those student-athletes.  Which, in turn, impacts the entire sport at the NCAA level.

Football and basketball players will be the biggest beneficiaries of the direct payments to athletes.  Everyone just takes that fact for granted.  You know schools will find a way to take care of their most successful programs outside of those two sports, too (LSU baseball, Penn State women's volleyball, Oklahoma softball, for instance).  But, the fear is that will be at the expense of Olympic sports athletes.  I'm sure some schools will figure out a way to compensate everyone, whether they play football or golf.  But there are likely others who won't.  And, if that happens, who's getting short-changed?  Because you know it won't be football or basketball!

ESPNFL

The long-teased inevitable deal between the NFL and ESPN is finally official.  ESPN now owns NFL Media, including NFL Network and NFL RedZone.  The NFL, meanwhile, is now an equity partner in the NFL, with the biggest league of them all owning a 10 percent stake in the Worldwide Leader.  It's a massive deal to say the least.

As soon as the deal was announced (and long before it was official), the biggest concern most fans had was what would happen with RedZone.  Don't worry.  They made sure to make it known RedZone isn't going anywhere and neither is Scott Hanson.  The only thing that's changing with RedZone is now that it's Disney-owned, it'll be included with the other Disney channels in carriage negotiations with cable providers.  Which is actually a pretty big win for the NFL.

ESPN, of course, is also launching its own standalone streaming service later this month (for $30 a month!).  They needed content for that streaming service.  Now they have access to the NFL Films library, as well as more NFL games.  (Plus a whole slew of WWE events that they also just picked up.)  Does that make it worth $30 a month?  That's what both sides are banking on.

NFL Films itself, however, will still be owned by the league.  So will NFL.com and NFL+, the league's direct-to-consumer streaming platform (which, I'm assuming, is so that they can retain those rights to stream games internationally).  NFL Fantasy, meanwhile, shifts under the ESPN umbrella.  The interesting thing, though, is that some of this falls under a second non-binding agreement, which presumably means the NFL can license more or less content to ESPN and NFL Network as it sees fit.  ESPN is also moving into NFL Network's former studio space in LA (which is probably why they got rid of their own LA studio a few months ago).

Another aspect of the deal involves actual NFL game coverage.  ESPN gained three more games, all of which it will sublicense to NFL Network.  They'll also move four games from their current package to NFL Network.  This presumably puts an end to the Monday Night Football doubleheaders and the simultaneous games on ESPN and ABC.  (I'd imagine the ABC simulcasts will stay, especially since Super Bowl LXI will air on ABC in 2027.)  Likewise, the ESPN+ exclusive game will be going away.

There are seven games per season on NFL Network.  This season, the in-house package includes the five international games in Europe and a Saturday afternoon doubleheader in Week 17.  Nothing was mentioned about additional games on NFL Network, though.  Just that ESPN games were being shifted over there.  And four ESPN games that are being moved, plus the three additional ones, gives you a full NFL Network package of seven games.  They just won't be all on Sunday mornings and Saturday afternoons.

That's notable because it leads right into the NFL's likely desire to add another media partner during its next media rights negotiations.  They've already sold single games to every streaming service imaginable, and they've created windows such as the Black Friday game (Amazon Prime) and Christmas doubleheader (Netflix), and this is the second year they're having a Week 1 game in Brazil, which will be broadcast on YouTube.

Everybody wants a piece of the NFL action, but there's only so much inventory to go around.  And carving out a new package for a new partner wasn't exactly going to be easy.  By moving some of ESPN's games to NFL Network, though, covers the NFL Network allotment while opening up a small package that the league will now be able to sell separately.  That likely means the Sunday morning international games in Europe will be their own separate package for potential new partners to bid on while everyone else (assumingly) maintains their current packages.  Another media partner, obviously, means more money for the league.

While I'm sure there are many details that remain to come out, it seems likely that we'll see NFL Network personalities on ESPN and vice versa.  Rich Eisen, who was at ESPN for years before joining NFL Network, has already teased that he's "coming home."  Although, it wouldn't be surprising if NFL Network, which eliminated most of its studio programming well in advance of the pending merger, simply phased out all original non-game content and all NFL Network personnel officially shift to ESPN.  That would free up their analysts to do college games on the ESPN networks, too, and increase the number of people who can appear on their studio shows.

In a separate deal, ESPN signed a multi-year extension of its NFL Draft rights, which now run until 2030.  What I'm curious about is how this new relationship affects NFL Network's coverage of the Draft.  They've always produced their own.  Will it just be a simulcast of ESPN's broadcast moving forward?  Ditto about the Pro Football Hall of Fame induction.  And how about the events like the Combine that air only on NFL Network?  I'm assuming that's where they'll continue to air on linear TV, while also available on ESPN's streaming service.

With ESPN and the NFL now literally in bed with each other, it's a reasonable question to wonder how that will impact the network's coverage of the league moving forward.  ESPN has made assurances that it'll "maintain its journalistic integrity" and "cover the league fairly," while also insisting that the NFL didn't make any demands regarding ESPN's approach.  I guess we'll find out, but I just can't really see ESPN being critical of the NFL.  (Although, I can also see them being overly critical just to prove their point that they won't take it easy on the league.)

What this almost certainly means, though, is that we'll see even more NFL coverage on ESPN, especially with the streaming service launching.  There are only so many hours in the day.  Only 72 hours of content can air on linear TV across ESPN, ESPN2 and NFL Network on a given day.  But they can put an endless supply on the streaming service.  And that endless supply includes 28 regular season NFL games, plus the draft, plus some preseason inventory.  It's a lot of football.  Which is something people have a seemingly endless appetite for.  ESPN and the NFL are confident that will continue to be the case.

We all knew this deal was coming.  So, it's not exactly a surprise that they finally made it official.  The details of the deal are fascinating, though.  Both the NFL and ESPN clearly benefit from this expanded relationship.  It could completely change the landscape, too.  The NFL was the first league to launch its own network.  Now they've sold it and become partners with ESPN, instead.  Will the other leagues, all of which have their own network now, follow the NFL's lead again?

All of this needs to be approved and signed off on before the merger can officially go into effect, so it'll still be several months at least before everything is finalized.  Which means nothing will be different for the 2025 season.  That timing works out fine for ESPN, though.  Because, assuming everything's in place in time for next season, the first year of their expanded relationship with the NFL will coincide with their first Super Bowl.  Which, I'm sure, was just a coincidence.

Love For the Lefties

It's been a week and a half since the Baseball Hall of Fame induction, and something they said at the end of the broadcast has really stuck with me.  CC Sabathia and Billy Wagner are just the 19th and 20th left-handed pitchers to be elected.  They're the first lefties to be inducted together since Sandy Koufax and Lefty Gomez in 1972.  (The only other time two lefties went in together was in 1947, Lefty Grove and Carl Hubbell.)

That's really a mind-boggling stat if you think about it.  There are 351 Hall of Famers.  Only 20 (not counting Babe Ruth) are left-handed pitchers.  That's a little over 5 percent.  And that number might not become 21 until Clayton Kershaw gets in (unless Tommy John is elected by the Eras Committee before then).

The more I thought about it, though, it did make sense.  I never realized it until it was mentioned, but there really are that few.  Every time I tried to roll through the list of Hall of Fame lefties in my head, I didn't even get to all 20.  The most I could rattle off top of my head was only about 15.

Being a Baseball Hall of Famer is a pretty exclusive list.  Being a left-handed pitcher in the Baseball Hall of Fame is really exclusive!  How do those lefties compare to each other though?  Well, like most things, it's entirely subjective.  The list has already been narrowed down to 20 for us, though, so we can narrow it down from there.

10. CC Sabathia: While most people agreed that CC was a likely Hall of Famer when he retired, not many thought he'd get in on the first ballot.  Well, he did.  And I'd venture to say that he's the 10th greatest lefty immortalized in Cooperstown.  CC pitched for 19 years and put up statistics we may never see again.  He had 250 wins and 3,000 strikeouts.  He was the best pitcher in baseball for Cleveland, then won a World Series as the Yankees' ace.  Perhaps most impressively, Sabathia completely changed his pitching style later in his career and was just as successful as his overpowering early days.

9. Lefty Gomez: I'm not sure Lefty Gomez gets enough credit for how good he was.  Yes, he pitched on those great Yankees teams of the 1930s that were loaded with offensive stars (Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig, Bill Dickey, Joe DiMaggio, etc.).  But someone had to pitch, and Lefty Gomez was the ace of those staffs.  He went 6-0 in the World Series and his career winning percentage was .649.  Gomez started the first three All*Star Games and five of the first six (he also had the first RBI in All*Star Game history).

8. Tom Glavine: We may never see a pitching staff like the one the Braves had during their 90s dynasty again.  Three Hall of Fame starters, all of whom were elected in their first year of eligibility.  Glavine was there first.  He endured the losing seasons before Atlanta got really good.  So, it was only fitting that he threw eight innings of one-hit ball in the Game 6 clincher of the 1995 World Series and was named World Series MVP.  It was with the Mets, though, that Glavine earned his 300th win.

7. Carl Hubbell: Any baseball fan knows what happened in the 1934 All*Star Game.  Carl Hubbell, pitching in his home park, struck out five Hall of Famers in a row.  At one point, he posted 24 consecutive wins for really good New York Giants teams of the 1930s.  Hubbell was a two-time NL MVP and who knows how many Cy Youngs he would've won had that award existed then?

6. Whitey Ford: Whitey Ford is the greatest pitcher in Yankees history.  Period.  End of sentence.  He's the franchise's all-time leader in wins (236) and has the fourth-best winning percentage (.690) in Major League history.  He also holds numerous World Series pitching records and was a six-time champion during one of the Yankees' most dominant eras.  Ford's career ERA of 2.75, meanwhile, is the third-lowest in the live-ball era.

5. Lefty Grove: Probably the first truly great left-handed pitcher and just the second lefty elected to the Hall of Fame, Grove was the ace of Connie Mack's Philadelphia Athletics that won back-to-back World Series in 1929 & 1930.  In a three-season span from 1929-31, he went a ridiculous 79-15!  Grove led the AL in ERA a record nine times, in strikeouts seven times and in wins four times.  He was the first left-hander to reach the 300-win mark.

4. Warren Spahn: Spahn & Sain and Pray for Rain.  That was the mantra if you went against the Braves in the 40s and 50s.  His 363 wins are the sixth-most in history, most all-time by a lefty, and the most by any pitcher who wasn't born in the 1800s.  He also had more than 2,500 strikeouts, which was the most-ever by a lefty at the time of his retirement and is still fifth on that list.

3. Steve Carlton: An argument could be made that Steve Carlton should be in the No. 1 spot.  For me he's No. 3.  He wasn't just the best lefty of his era (with all due respect to Ron Guidry), he was arguably the best pitcher PERIOD in the 70s and early 80s.  Carlton won a World Series early in his career with the Cardinals, then was the ace of that legendary 1980 Phillies team.  His 329 wins and 4,136 strikeouts are both second-most all-time among left-handers.

2. Randy Johnson: When you think of dominant pitchers, Randy Johnson's name is one of the first to come to mind.  For starters, he scared the crap out of you.  Just ask John Kruk or that bird (well, actually, you can't ask the bird).  The Big Unit threw a perfect game at 40.  He won four straight Cy Youngs.  He came out of the bullpen in Game 7 of the 2001 World Series on no days' rest and earned the win.  And, oh yeah, he's second all-time in strikeouts.

1. Sandy Koufax: There could only be one for the top spot.  Sandy Koufax only played 12 years and retired at 30.  Just imagine how insane his numbers would've been had he played longer!  He was THE dominant pitcher of his era and is arguably the greatest pitcher ever (left-handed or right-handed).  Three Cy Youngs, an MVP, four no-hitters (including a perfect game), four World Series rings and two World Series MVPs.  And, again, his counting numbers would be so much higher had he pitched into his 30s.

On Top of the Swimming World (Sort Of)

The World Swimming Championships just concluded and the United States led the way in both gold medals (9) and total medals (29).  Just like at the Paris Olympics.  Yet, despite winning the Best Team trophy, the meet was considered a disappointment for the Americans.  Just like at the Paris Olympics.

Michael Phelps and Ryan Lochte were very pointed in their criticism on social media, and Rowdy Gaines said basically the same thing on the broadcast throughout the meet.  Rowdy gave the team's effort a grade each night, and, especially on the first few nights, that grade wasn't good.  It got higher as the meet went on and the U.S. collected more medals, but his overall impression still wasn't great.  He was also quick to note, however, that there's still plenty of time until the LA Olympics.  And that it's not all negative.

There were plenty of reasons for the Americans' troubles in Singapore.  A big one is the fact that a majority of the team was sick with acute gastroenteritis at early in the week.  The timing of the illness obviously wasn't ideal, as it affected swimmers' training and recovery schedules.  Some medal contenders had to withdraw from their primary events because of their sickness.  As they recovered later in the week, the performances improved.  This is not an excuse, mind you.  It's merely an explanation.

And, just like in Paris, there were some events where the Americans just got beat.  The United States finished with 11 silver medals.  In four of those events, the gold medalist set a championship record.  In two others, the gold medalist was either Summer McIntosh or Leon Marchand, the two dominant swimmers in the world right now.  And another was an American sweep.  So, it's not crazy to think that some of those silvers easily could've been gold...which would've made the medal table look very different.

It's also important to note that this was the fourth consecutive year with a World Championships.  There was both an Olympics and a Worlds last year.  A lot of top swimmers already sit out the post-Olympics Worlds, and that was especially the case this year.  So, Team USA was missing a lot of its biggest stars.  Especially on the men's side.  Which means the team was weaker than it otherwise would've been.  Which, again, is not an excuse.  

With all that being said, however, the criticism of the team was entirely valid.  Especially with a home Olympics coming up in three years.  And the team's performance in Singapore was lackluster.  By any other standard, that effort at the World Championships would've been considered a success.  We're not talking about any other standard, though.  We're talking about what's come to be expected from USA Swimming.  Which isn't what we saw in Singapore.  Or Paris.

At the Olympics last year, the American men won a total of two gold medals and, notably, didn't get an individual gold until Bobby Finke set a world record in the 1500 freestyle--literally the last individual event of the meet!  At this year's World Championships, you know how many total gold medals the American men won?  One!  Luca Orlando in the 200 butterfly.  That's it. 

They didn't even win a relay, the first time that's ever happened.  In fact, they only won two bronzes in the three relays and were off the podium altogether in the 4x200 freestyle.  And, in the medley relay, they only got the bronze because of a crazy anchor leg by Jack Aleksy that moved the U.S. from fifth to third.  It's not just that they didn't win any of the relays, either.  It's that instead of going into the relays among the favorites, the consensus was that they'd be lucky just to medal--which turned out to be prophetic.

That's just the tip of the iceberg, though.  There was a grand total of one American finalist in the three men's backstroke events.  The backstroke.  An event that the U.S. used to dominate!  There were multiple events where the American men didn't even reach the semifinals!  Not winning medals is one thing.  Even not making the final is somewhat understandable.  But, at the very least, you should be able to get out of the prelims.

Things weren't much better in the breaststrokes.  The U.S. also failed to medal in any of the men's breaststroke events.  Of the six swimmers in the three events, only two even made the semifinals (they'd both make the final).  The 200 butterfly, where Urlando won gold, was the only non-freestyle event where the U.S. had multiple finalists.  Of the 17 individual men's events, seven didn't have an American finalist.

If you think this was exclusive to the men's team, think again.  The U.S. set the world record in the mixed medley relay while winning gold in Paris.  It's an event where you'd expect the U.S., at the very least, to be on the podium.  But in Singapore, the "A" team (perhaps consisting of, say, Regan Smith, Josh Matheny, Gretchen Walsh and Jack Aleksy) didn't even get the chance.  Because the "B" team that swam in the prelims ended up 10th.  Unacceptable!

Fortunately, outside of the mixed medley relay, the struggles were mainly limited to the men's team.  The women won six individual golds and set a world record in the medley relay (which clinched the top spot ahead of Australia on the gold medal table).  Of the 20 women's events including the three relays, the U.S. won at least one medal in 17 of them, including two medals in all three backstrokes.  And, in the three where they didn't, the top American was fourth once and fifth twice.

So, things are not as dire as they seem.  The women's team was strong in Paris, was strong in Singapore, and figures to remain strong in the leadup to LA.  The men's team, however, struggled in Paris and struggled again in Singapore.  That's two major global championships in a row in back-to-back summers where the U.S. men failed to live up to the standard that's expected of them.  And, for the men's team, the clock is ticking until the 2028 Olympics, which are just three short years away.

Maybe this is just a lull.  American fans got spoiled by Michael Phelps and Ryan Lochte, then Caeleb Dressel.  The best men's swimmers in the world right now, however, aren't American (although, they do train in the U.S. with American coaches).  But, with the LA Games approaching, the American men need to get out of this lull fast.  Otherwise, things will get uglier than they already are.

A Busy Deadline

Wow!  There was a lot of movement at the Trade Deadline!  By a lot of teams!  Two unexpected reunions (Carlos Correa to Houston, Eugenio Suarez to Seattle) were the headliners, but that's just the tip of the iceberg.  So many contenders decided to go for it.  Teams that aren't contenders became buyers (Cincinnati?!).  Some teams decided to both buy and sell.  And some guys we fully expected to be on the move stayed exactly where they were when the day began.

This was also one of the strangest Trade Deadlines for me.  A few years ago, I was at a Yankees-Diamondbacks game on the day of deadline.  Zack Greinke started for Arizona, then was traded mid-game during a rain delay.  That has nothing on what happened this year, though!  I was at the Yankee game again.  There was a rain delay again.  When they came back from the rain delay, Tampa Bay took Jose Caballero out of the game...because he had been traded to the Yankees during the rain delay!

The Yankees were one of the busiest teams at the Deadline.  They'd already addressed their glaring holes by trading for Ryan McMahon on Amed Rosario before adding Austin Slater and Caballero.  Everyone knew they still needed help in the bullpen, the most glaring weakness on the team.  And boy did they add to the bullpen!  During the rain delay, they closed deals for David Bednar (who they've long coveted), Camilo Doval and Jake Bird, a clear upgrade over the parade of crappy relievers they'd been trotting out there.

While the Yankees definitely improved, I can't say it was a complete win because they didn't land a starter.  Luis Gil is coming off the IL, so that could be viewed as similar to a Trade Deadline acquisition.  But a postseason rotation of Max Fried, Carlos Rodon, Marcus Stroman and Gil still doesn't seem like enough, even with a significantly improved bullpen.  Despite that, I'd still have to consider them "winners" at the Deadline since they became a better team.

So, who else are the Trade Deadline winners?  Well, nobody is a bigger winner than the Seattle Mariners.  They were the winners in the Eugenio Suarez Sweepstakes, and they also got Josh Naylor from Arizona in a separate deal.  That gives the Mariners a pretty lethal lineup to go with their already solid starting rotation.  After these moves by the all-in Mariners, it's not a stretch to see Seattle catching Houston in the AL West!

Speaking of Houston, the Correa deal is an absolute shocker.  He'll play third base in the short term while Isaac Paredes is out and his contract runs through 2028, so it sure looks like this reunion is for the long term, as well.  And, with Correa effectively replacing Paredes, plus the low-key additions of Ramon Urias and Jesus Sanchez, as well as the pending returns of Jeremy Pena and Yordan Alvarez, the Astros aren't exactly conceding the AL West to the Mariners.

And, while we're at it, let's throw Texas in the mix!  The Rangers are tied with Seattle for the last wild card spot and can be a scary opponent for anybody in October should they get there.  They were the ones to land Arizona starter Merrill Kelly, whose postseason experience they saw first-hand in the 2023 World Series.  A rotation of Nathan Eovaldi, Jacob deGrom and Kelly is pretty good in a short series!  Especially since Texas also made upgrades to its already solid bullpen in Danny Coulombe and Phil Maton.

Then there's San Diego.  The Padres always keep it interesting at the Deadline.  That's for sure!  Their already strong bullpen was made even better with the addition of Mason Miller, but they didn't stop there.  Two starters (J.P. Sears and Nestor Cortes), a left-handed bat (Ryan O'Hearn), a backup catcher (Freddy Fermin) and the left field problem that they've had all year (Ramon Laureano).  Is it enough to pass the Dodgers?  Probably not.  Is it enough to make them a playoff team (an entertaining one at that)?  Definitely.

Like the Yankees, New York's other team had some glaring issues that needed to be addressed.  The Mets did just that.  Their bullpen has been a mess outside of Edwin Diaz.  Enter Ryan Helsley, Tyler Rogers and Gregory Soto!  They've been lacking a center fielder all season.  Enter Cedric Mullins!  Considering how good the Mets already were, upgrading their two most significant areas of need makes them legitimate World Series contenders.

It's also easy to see the Phillies holding off the Mets.  Because Philadelphia got the thing it needed the most--a closer.  The Phillies got a good one, too, in the Twins' Jhoan Duran.  They also increased their outfield depth with the addition of Harrison Bader.  The Phillies already boasted an incredibly strong starting rotation, and the top of their lineup is as good as anybody's.  The NL East race is gonna be fun!

There is one NL East team that would have to be considered a Deadline loser, though.  Atlanta.  The Braves made it very clear that they no longer have a use for Marcell Ozuna and they were looking to trade him.  Yet Ozuna is still on Atlanta's roster.  So is Raisel Iglesias.  Meanwhile, Rafael Montero isn't.  Other than that, the Braves didn't really do much of anything (other than trading for Carlos Carrasco).  Maybe they're banking on being competitive next year (which isn't a terrible strategy).  This year, they already had no chance of catching the Mets and Phillies.  Being quiet at the Deadline sure didn't increase them.

One seller that surprised me was San Francisco.  The Giants weren't that far out of it a week ago.  Then they went on a six-game losing streak and waived the white flag.  Not only did they ship out Doval, they also sent Mike Yastrzemski to Kansas City.  The Giants, who made a big all-in splash with the Rafael Devers trade, gave up on the 2025 season six weeks later by trading away their closer and right fielder.

Most of the other teams that did the selling were expected.  Arizona, obviously, was the biggest seller with the most significant names being shipped out.  (As well as a smaller deal that sent Shelby Miller and Jordan Montgomery to the Brewers.)  In addition to Mullins and the moves they'd already made, Baltimore shipped Charlie Morton to the Cubs.  Minnesota's not catching Detroit, so the Twins traded their moveable pieces, but, oddly, kept Joe Ryan.  And I'll give Cleveland a pass for not moving Emmanuel Clase since he became impossible to trade after everything about the gambling came out.

Of course, only two teams will end up making it to the World Series, and only one of those two will win it.  And that'll ultimately be what decides who had a successful Trade Deadline and who didn't.  It's also a given that not all of these trades will work out, while others will be the exact missing piece that a team needed.  So, even though it's way too early to judge, there are plenty of teams that have plenty of reason to feel better about their World Series chances tonight than they did this morning.

Peacock Sports

One of the most interesting pieces of sports media news that I've seen in quite a while came out the other day when it was reported that NBC is considering launching a linear channel focused on sports programming.  In this era where everything is moving away from linear to exclusively streaming, it was shocking.  Especially since this is the same network that shuttered both NBCSN and Olympic Channel not too long ago.  At that time, NBC moved some of the content that aired on NBCSN and Olympic Channel to its other cable networks while making all of its sports programming available on Peacock.  The goal, obviously, was to drive Peacock subscriptions.

The timing of this, should it happen, isn't a coincidence, either.  NBCUniversal is in the process of spinning off its cable channels into a new company called "Versant."  Versant will include every cable channel currently under the NBC umbrella with the exception of Bravo.  Most significantly, USA and CNBC, the two main cable channels NBC uses for sports content, as well as Golf Channel (which is self-explanatory), are included in the deal.  NBCUniversal has promised to "fulfill its obligations" with its existing sports properties, but you have to wonder how that relationship will work moving forward if they're two completely separate entities.

Would NBCUniversal even be considering this if it weren't splitting off its cable properties (specifically USA)?  I'm not so sure.  So, I think not having those channels available for NBC Sports programming is definitely coming into play here.  They'll need to have a linear presence for those events somewhere, and the existing options (USA & CNBC) may not necessarily be guaranteed in the future.  So why not create a new option to fulfill those preexisting commitments?

And, of course, the NBA On NBC is returning this season.  As a part of the NBA deal, Peacock will have a pretty significant number of exclusive games that NBC will obviously want to make available to the largest audience possible.  Especially since they paid more for the NBA than they do for Sunday Night Football!  NBC has to pay for its NBA rights somehow (they've already raised the price of Peacock by $3 a month which is not unrelated).

It's worth noting that this new channel (which I'm calling "Peacock Sports" for convenience sake) is intended as a complement to Peacock rather than a replacement.  The idea is that it won't be available in the basic bundle like NBCSN was (and similar channels ESPN and FS1 are).  Rather, it'll only be on a sports-specific premium tier.  The thought process, which is actually a pretty reasonable position to take, is that it'll actually increase the potential audience for Peacock Sports because it would get both those who've made the switch to streaming and those who haven't made the switch because they've remained loyal to the cable bundle.

On paper, this makes a lot of sense.  Sports programming is very heavily featured on Peacock, so there would be plenty of content.  That was one of the problems with NBCSN and Olympic Channel, especially in that last year after NBC lost the NHL rights.  They didn't have enough programming to fill 24 hours, so they ran infomercials overnight, a lot of filler programming, and multiple replays of the same events.  Peacock Sports could easily do that, even if it means not necessarily showing everything live.

Just think about the amount of programming NBC already has that's exclusive to Peacock.  They'll have the NBA in the Fall and the WNBA next summer, as well as an exclusive NFL game each season.  They've had the Premier League for years.  The Big East and Big Ten.  One Notre Dame football game every season.  The Tour de France.  All the Olympic sports.  And, if NBC, as rumored, is in the mix for Sunday Night Baseball, you can add that to the list.

Most of the NBC/Peacock contracts already have dedicated windows for games.  That wouldn't change with a Peacock Sports linear TV channel.  In fact, it would form the foundation of their schedule.  Then, they could fill in the remaining hours with non-live Olympic sports programming (which could also be live for certain major events or if it fits in the schedule) or shows like Pro Football Talk or The Dan Patrick Show (which served as mid-afternoon filler on NBCSN).

Peacock literally has six sports-specific channels in addition to all of their live game offerings.  I haven't even mentioned their extensive library of sports documentaries yet, either.  It seriously would NOT be hard to find 24 hours' worth of programming to put on this channel!  Especially if it's intended to be a supplement for Peacock's offerings.  (All Peacock content is already available both live and on-demand, so if they want to watch something live that isn't on Peacock Sports or won't be on the linear TV channel until later in the day, they still can.)

Between the content that's currently on USA and CNBC, as well as events that are exclusive to Peacock, it's actually pretty easy to envision what a day on Peacock Sports might look like.  A Fall Saturday could have the Premier League in the morning, then a Big Ten football game in the afternoon.  They could have the second half of that Tuesday NBA doubleheader (or the first half for the people getting the West Coast game).  Sunday Night Baseball during football season.  The primary Olympic cable coverage, etc.  (Plus whatever other sports properties NBC may eventually also pick up.)

While streaming is the present and future, the cable bundle isn't dead yet.  Nor is it fading away into the sunset as quickly as some would like to believe.  And it's sports fans who are the most loyal viewers to their existing cable bundle.  This is NBCUniversal's acknowledgement of that.  So, why not make an attempt to reach out to some of them without cannibalizing Peacock (which already simulcasts Sunday Night Football and all other NBC Sports programming anyway)?  It'll only increase your potential audience by appealing to both.

Even with the prevalence of streaming, there are definite advantages to cable that simply don't exist with streaming.  The most significant of which is channel guides.  If it's on TV (as opposed to just streaming), it shows up on the channel guide.  People can either seek it out or randomly stumble upon it.  You can't do that with streaming.  With streaming, if you want to watch something, you have to know when it's on and where to find it.

That's always been my biggest point of contention about streaming.  Especially streaming exclusives.  While they're not a big deal for many people, there are plenty of others who find them extremely annoying.  It's incredibly frustrating when you want to watch the game on TV, but can't!  And, as NBCUniversal has found out, people aren't gonna sign up for Peacock just to watch one game.

Keep in mind, too, that nothing is confirmed yet.  We don't know if it's actually happening or when it'll launch if it does happen.  Although, now that it's being discussed publicly, I'd be surprised if it doesn't happen.  And it wouldn't just be a win for linear TV.  It'd be NBC's subtle acknowledgement that shuttering NBCSN, while it might've seemed like a good idea at the time, was a mistake.

Baseball's Most Impactful Free Agents

In the days leading up to the Hall of Fame induction, one of the stats that was often mentioned as perhaps the biggest argument for CC Sabathia's first-ballot election was his dominant three-year stretch with three different teams from 2007-09.  They even mentioned it on his plaque!  CC won the Cy Young and led Cleveland to Game 7 of the ALCS in 2007, was traded to Milwaukee at the trade deadline in 2008 and pretty much single-handedly got the Brewers into the playoffs, then signed with the Yankees as a free agent in 2009 and was the definition of an ace for a World Series championship team.

It was arguably one of the greatest free agent signings in MLB history.  It was certainly one of the most impactful.  So, you know what that means.  It inspired a Top 10 list!

Free agency has been a part of Major League Baseball since the 70s, and, while there have been some very high-profile misses, there have also been some amazing success stories!  Dynasties have been formed because of free agent signings.  Players have thrived after going to a new place.  But who have been the best/most impactful in the 50-year history of free agency?

Please note that this doesn't include players who were traded and ended up re-signing with the team they were traded to.  So, no Justin Verlander or Pedro Martinez.  Ditto, no players who became free agents, but chose to re-sign with their current team (meaning no Aaron Judge or Mike Trout).  These are 10 players who signed with a new team as a free agent and found nothing but success.  (And, yes, there are significantly more than 10 players who could've been on this list, so don't get on me for who's not included.)

10. Ivan Rodriguez (Marlins): Pudge only played one season for the Marlins...and they won the World Series that season!  Having a 20-year-old rookie named Miguel Cabrera sure didn't hurt, but Florida doesn't win the 2003 World Series without Pudge Rodriguez.  His 2003 campaign was the best offensive season by a catcher in Marlins history, and he was the NLCS MVP.  After the season, Pudge cashed in on a four-year deal with the Tigers, which is why his 2003 season, as impactful as it was, only has him at No. 10.

9. Jack Morris (Twins/Blue Jays): Everyone knows how much I love Jack Morris.  He gets on here because of back-to-back seasons with new teams that both won the World Series.  After 14 years in Detroit, the Hall of Famer signed with his hometown Minnesota Twins in 1991.  We all know what happened that season.  Then he signed a two-year deal with the Blue Jays in 1992 and was a part of two more World Series championship teams.

8. Roger Clemens (Blue Jays): Boston thought Clemens was in the "twilight" of his career after the 1996 season, prompting him to sign a four-year deal with the division rival Blue Jays.  All he did was win the pitching Triple Crown and Cy Young in both seasons with Toronto before being traded to the Yankees, where he won two World Series rings in 1999 and 2000.  He ended up pitching until 2007.  Of course, many people suspect there were reasons for that beyond just his pitching ability.  But, enhanced or not, the Rocket's two years in Toronto proved he was very much not as done as the Red Sox thought.

7. Shohei Ohtani (Dodgers): Ohtani's going here for now, but could easily move up depending on how things go for the rest of his Dodgers career.  But there's no question his first season after singing that record deal was something special.  A unanimous NL MVP and the Dodgers' first full-season World Series title in 36 years.  He proved to be worth every penny of the $2 million they spent on him last season.  (You know my thoughts on the Dodgers' ridiculous deferred contracts that will definitely be a hot topic in the upcoming CBA negotiations.)

6. CC Sabathia (Yankees): I'd likely have CC higher had the Yankees won more than just the one World Series during his time in Pinstripes.  He led the Major Leagues in wins and was the ALCS MVP that season, then he continued to be one of the best pitchers in the American League for the next few seasons.  CC ended up pitching 11 years for the Yankees and went 134-88.  With all due respect to Gerrit Cole, he's the most impactful free agent pitcher in franchise history.

5. Reggie Jackson (Yankees): Speaking of impactful Yankees free agents, their first big splash was Reggie Jackson, a guy who was made for New York!  His first year with the team, 1977, was rocky.  Then came the 1977 World Series, when Reggie forever became "Mr. October."  They won the World Series again in 1978 and clinched another pennant in 1981.  In 1982, he became a free agent again and signed with the Angels...who won their first-ever division title that season.

4. Max Scherzer (Nationals): He's still going strong at 41 and will have his own plaque in Cooperstown eventually.  And he was arguably the best pitcher in the game during his six-and-a-half years in Washington.  Scherzer threw two no-hitters during his first season with the Nationals in 2015.  Then he won back-to-back Cy Youngs in 2016-17 (and arguably should've won a third straight in 2018).  In 2019, the Nationals won the World Series, with Scherzer starting Game 7.  That eventual Hall of Fame plaque should have a curly W on it.

3. Barry Bonds (Giants): Say what you want about Barry Bonds.  There's no denying he's one of the greatest players in history.  And there's no denying that his move to the Giants in 1993 is perhaps the biggest free agent signing in history.  He was the NL MVP with Pittsburgh in 1992, then won it again in his first season with San Francisco.  Bonds would go on to win four more MVPs (consecutively from 2001-04).  He ended up spending 15 years in San Francisco and reached all of his career milestones, including the single-season (73) and all-time (762) home run records in a Giants uniform.

2. Greg Maddux (Braves): Maddux won the NL Cy Young with the Cubs in 1992, then signed with the Braves that offseason.  Atlanta had already launched its dynasty, making back-to-back World Series appearances in 1991-92.  Maddux was the final piece, giving them that legendary rotation of three Hall of Famers.  Even Glavine and Smoltz would admit that Maddux was the best of the three.  He won the Cy Young in each of his first three seasons with the Braves, including Atlanta's championship year of 1995.  Maddux also won the Gold Glove in the first 10 of his 11 seasons in Atlanta.

1. Randy Johnson (Diamondbacks): There's only one free agent signing that had more of an impact on both player and team success than Greg Maddux to Atlanta.  That was Randy Johnson to Arizona.  The Big Unit joined the Diamondbacks in 1999, their second season.  Arizona won a surprise NL West title that season and he won the first of four consecutive Cy Youngs.  In 2001, he had that legendary performance in that classic World Series, including a Game 7 win in relief the day after he was the winning pitcher in Game 6.  He also pitched a perfect game in 2004 and led the NL in strikeouts five times as a Diamondback.  It was the most dominant portion of a dominant career.

MLS & the FIFA Calendar

Ever since its launch, MLS has been criticized by the global soccer community for two particular things.  The first is its lack of promotion and relegation, which is a common feature of every other top-level soccer league around the world.  The second is its schedule, specifically how the MLS season is in the summer and not aligned with the FIFA international match calendar.  Promotion/relegation ain't changing anytime soon.  The schedule, though.  That change may be coming sooner than we think.

At the MLS All-Star Game earlier this week, MLS Commissioner Don Garber acknowledged that it would be a "seismic shift."  However, he also pretty much admitted that the change will happen at some point.  And, when it does, it'll be permanent.  He stopped short of saying when it'll happen, but did indicate that with next summer's World Cup being held in the U.S., the timing could be perfect to do it then.

MLS has always resisted the calls from the international community to change its schedule and align with the FIFA calendar.  That has become increasingly difficult in recent years, though.  MLS takes breaks for the individual FIFA match weekends throughout the year, but plays right thru the summer tournaments.  As a result, MLS teams often end up having to play regular season games without some of their top players because they're off on national team duty.

There's a FIFA break in November, which is right in the middle of the MLS Cup Playoffs, an awkward time to say the least.  That pushes the MLS Cup to the first Saturday in December (aka, college football conference championship weekend).  As the MLS season has gotten longer, the MLS Cup has been moved later and later.  And, with their November-December schedule, the MLS Cup Playoffs go right up against the heart of NFL and college football season (as well as the start of college basketball).  Needless to say, they get overshadowed.

The timing of the MLS season is also awkward when it comes to the transfer window.  European seasons end in May and the summer transfer window opens right after the Champions League Final, which is right in the middle of the MLS season!  That's why players who leave European clubs for MLS don't join their MLS team until June.  Likewise, players who want to leave MLS for Europe either have to join them at midseason in December or leave their MLS team early (or, the unlikely third option, sit out until the start of the following European season).

This obviously creates an interesting dynamic when it comes to playing for national teams, too.  Since guys who play in MLS are on a completely different schedule, they're at a different place in their training cycle at the FIFA breaks.  When the European guys are in the middle of the season, the MLS guys are just ramping up.  And vice versa during the October/November FIFA breaks.  And, of course, the missed regular season MLS games for FIFA summer tournaments.

However, transitioning to a winter/spring schedule isn't as easy as it sounds.  Which is part of the reason MLS has been reluctant to make the change.  Because, despite the challenges, the summer schedule has worked for MLS for nearly 30 years.  And a winter/spring schedule would face several challenges that are unique to North America...especially for a sport that's played outdoors!

For all the complaints about the heat during the Club World Cup, the opposite is true during the Winter!  There are a lot of MLS teams in places where it gets awfully cold in the Winter!  You've got three teams in Canada, two in New York, Minnesota, Salt Lake City, Denver, Chicago, Columbus, Boston, Seattle and Portland (along with some other cold-weather cities I'm probably forgetting).  That's nearly half the league!  There's no question that they'd have to put in a fairly lengthy winter break.  Regardless of when and how long that break is, though, you'll still have those teams playing home games in December, January and February.

Moving the season would also put MLS right in the middle of the most crowded time on the sports calendar.  The entire NFL and college football seasons run from August-January.  The NBA and NHL regular seasons both run from October-April.  And college basketball goes from November-March.  In the summer, meanwhile, it's just Baseball, the WNBA and the NWSL (and MLS) for two months between the end of the NBA/NHL seasons and the start of football season.

One of the arguments in favor of the move is that it would be moving the MLS Cup Playoffs away from football season.  However, playing them in April/May would put them right up against the NBA and Stanley Cup Playoffs!  So, they're getting overshadowed by another sport's postseason either way!  The difference is a Winter/Spring schedule puts the MLS regular season against the regular seasons of those more popular leagues...and asks fans to uncomfortably sit outdoors in cold-weather cities for those regular-season contests.  It would kill attendance!

Adjusting the schedule to align with the FIFA calendar might appease FIFA.  But it would make MLS even less relevant domestically than it already is.  In the Summer, there isn't much else going on, so MLS can step in and help fill that void.  In the Winter, so much else is going on that it isn't a stretch to say MLS could fall into the abyss.  Sure, you could argue there's a small void in February/March between the end of football season and March Madness, but that's when the MLS season currently starts, so they're already playing then!

Let's not kid ourselves here, either.  Changing the schedule would make FIFA happy, but it wouldn't do much to raise MLS's stature worldwide.  It's not like this would suddenly bring MLS to the same level as the top European leagues.  It would make things slightly easier for players who want to go from Europe to MLS, but the top American players will still play in Europe where the quality of competition is higher.

Which brings me to one last point worth noting.  MLS draws a lot of its talent from the college ranks.  NCAA men's soccer is a Fall sport.  The MLS SuperDraft is in December after the College Cup (which is actually later than the MLS Cup.)  So, those college players aren't available until January/February.  If you're moving the start of the MLS season to August/September, they could go a full 7-8 months without playing competitive games instead of the 2-3 months they currently have (unless the college coaches get the Spring season that they've been pushing for and only they want).

All of these are legitimate concerns.  And they're all part of the reason why MLS has been hesitant to go along with FIFA's international calendar.  But I also get why they're willing to make the move sooner rather than later.  I hope they know what they're doing, though.  Because it has the makings of a big mistake that could backfire tremendously.

MLB Expansion Issues

Major League Baseball isn't in a hurry to expand.  That doesn't stop people from asking Rob Manfred about it, though.  At his All*Star Game press conference, the commissioner was once again asked about it, and he once again reiterated his position.  MLB won't consider expansion until the A's and Rays get their stadium situations figured out.  Progress has already started on the A's new ballpark in Las Vegas, but the Rays backed out of their plans for a new stadium because of the damage to Tropicana Field, so they're very much in limbo.

With all that in mind, expansion won't be on the agenda until Manfred's tenure as commissioner is over.  Will MLB eventually go to 32 teams, though?  Most likely.  Will that happen sometime in the 2030s?  Probably.  Even though expansion seems inevitable, figuring out how to work it isn't as easy as it sounds.

Let's start with "where?", which is obviously the most pressing question.  Nashville has been making a big push and would have to be considered a favorite to get one of the two expansion teams.  As for who gets the other one, Montreal is the obvious sentimental favorite.  Or do you put another team on the West Coast?  Portland would make sense as a geographic rival for Seattle.

Here's where our first problem comes in, however.  You'd have to figure that they'd go to four divisions of four in each league, so there would have to be some sort of realignment.  Portland could easily fit into the AL West.  Montreal could go back where the Expos were in the NL East.  Nashville could go into either league's newly-created South division, but that's where things get complicated.  Because who's moving divisions?  And will it be reluctantly?

For argument's sake, let's put the new teams in Montreal and Portland.  With Montreal in the NL East and Portland in the AL West, here's what the divisions might look like: AL East-Baltimore, Boston, Yankees, Toronto; AL North-White Sox, Cleveland, Detroit, Minnesota; AL South-Houston, Kansas City, Tampa Bay, Texas; AL West-Athletics, Angels, Portland, Seattle; NL East-Montreal, Mets, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh; NL North-Cubs, Colorado, Milwaukee, St. Louis; NL South-Atlanta, Cincinnati, Miami, Washington; NL West-Arizona, Dodgers, San Diego, San Francisco.

As you can see, some of those divisions are somewhat awkward.  This is the same sport that had Atlanta in the NL West for 25 years, though, so it's not like they aren't used to that.  And I have Cincinnati in the NL South instead of St. Louis because there's no way the Cubs and Cardinals would agree to any divisional alignment where they aren't together.

Now let's try Montreal and Nashville, which makes things a bit trickier.  Because in this scenario, the eight westernmost teams are split 5/3.  As a result, one of the NL West teams has to shift to the AL.  Should that happen, I think the most likely candidate would be Arizona, which would then put both expansion teams in the National League and give us divisions that look like this: AL East-Baltimore, Boston, Yankees, Toronto; AL North-White Sox, Cleveland, Detroit, Minnesota; AL South-Houston, Kansas City, Tampa Bay, Texas; AL West-Arizona, Athletics, Angels, Seattle; NL East-Montreal, Mets, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh; NL North-Cubs, Cincinnati, Milwaukee, St. Louis; NL South-Atlanta, Miami, Nashville, Washington; NL West-Colorado, Dodgers, San Diego, San Francisco.

On paper, those divisions make the most sense.  Far more than the Montreal/Portland alignment and far more than the Nashville/Portland alignment you're about to see.  In this scenario, we've got Portland in the AL West and Nashville in the NL South: AL East-Baltimore, Boston, Yankees, Toronto; AL North-White Sox, Cleveland, Detroit, Minnesota; AL South-Houston, Kansas City, Tampa Bay, Texas; AL West-Athletics, Angels, Portland, Seattle; NL East-Mets, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Washington; NL North-Cubs, Colorado, Milwaukee, St. Louis; NL South-Atlanta, Cincinnati, Miami, Nashville; NL West-Arizona, Dodgers, San Diego, San Francisco.

You'll notice that the divisions, by and large, are the same regardless of which two cities get the expansion teams.  And they're mostly staying as true as possible to the current divisional alignment.  So, I don't really foresee that being much of an issue no matter where the new teams play or how they figure out the divisions.  That's not really as much of a problem as the schedule. 

We're in the third season of the current schedule format where each team plays at least one series against everyone else in the Majors.  They tweaked it slightly this season so that you play six games against your interleague partner--three at home, three away--instead of four (two and two).  However, the math doesn't work to have the home & home with your interleague partner if two expansion teams are added, which I can see being an issue.  Because no team will want to lose the three guaranteed sellouts that come with hosting their interleague rival.

The math is otherwise pretty straightforward.  It basically keeps the current format with slight modifications: 4 series/13 games against your division opponents (12 series/39 games), 2 series/6 or 7 games against the remaining teams in your league (12 series/75 games).  That leaves 48 games left for interleague play, which divides perfectly into 16 three-game series.  However, that only accounts for one series against your rival, not two.

If teams only play six games against each non-division team in their own league, they'd only be at 159 games.  Those three games could, theoretically, be used for a second series against your interleague partner.  That's not as easy as it sounds, though.  Teams need to play a certain number of four-game series because they only have a set number of off days.  Turning three four-game series into an extra three-game series doesn't just add three off days, it pushes the season back (or up) three days because everybody's playing one additional series.  Again, easier said than done since they'd need the MLBPA's sign-off to extend the length of the season. 

Could it be done?  Yes.  But there would be pushback either way.  If you want to drop one of the two series against your interleague rival, the owners (especially those of certain teams) won't be happy.  If you want to extend the season, the players have to agree.  Some might appreciate the extra off days, but would they want the trade-off of playing more regular season games in late March/early October?  And, if the added games were tacked onto the end of the season, that pushes the playoffs and World Series back, potentially into November, which MLB doesn't like.

Is either of these things a big enough issue for MLB to not consider expansion?  Of course not!  They shouldn't be in a rush, either, though.  Because they're things that will need to be figured out when the time comes.  And that time isn't now.  Not when the current division alignment and schedule format is working out perfectly!