Too Much Replay

I was all set to do a post about the transfer portal and how it's absolutely killing college basketball.  Specifically how the timing of it is so stupid and how there's an easy solution to that problem.  It's the same solution I offered when I wrote about the football transfer portal back in December (which is why I decided not to do one about the basketball portal).  You don't open it until after the NCAA Tournament!  It makes absolutely NO sense how more than 1,000 players are in the transfer portal while the best teams are still playing the most important games of the season in the sport's marquee event!

So, instead of complaining about the transfer portal, I'm going to complain about another thing that's ruining college basketball.  Well, not necessarily college basketball as a whole, but definitely the NCAA Tournament.  The overabundance of officials going to the monitor, which makes NCAA Tournament games unnecessarily long.  It's insufferable!

Stan Van Gundy has been speaking for all of America with his disdain for the frequency with which officials go to replay, especially at the end of games.  During Florida-Texas Tech, he said something along the lines of "why would we want to interrupt all of these stoppages with an exciting basketball game?"  That pretty much summed it up.  It's too much.  And it makes the last two minutes of games take forever!

The last two minutes is an important distinction because that's when officials can stop play to check the monitor at any time.  Which is something they take full advantage of.  They go to the monitor on seemingly every play in the last two minutes, whether it's a close game or not.  And most of the stoppages are to reset the clock, and it takes five minutes for them to add 0.3 seconds!  Because it's super important to have the clock be at 4.8 instead of 4.5 in an eight-point game where the team that's winning has the ball!

Don't get me wrong.  There are situations when going to the monitor is absolutely necessary, especially in a close game.  You aren't sure who touched the ball last before it went out of bounds?  Definitely go check!  You want to confirm whether a basket was a two or a three?  No problem.  Checking whether a foul should be upgraded to a flagrant?  100 percent.  Resetting the clock every time there's a whistle?  Unnecessary!

Women's games were made painfully longer a few years ago when the NCAA changed the rules and started allowing them to advance the ball on a timeout in the final minute.  Ever since then, the final minute of women's games, especially close games, have followed a similar pattern.  Foul, timeout, foul, timeout, foul, timeout.  It takes at least 10 minutes to play one, with a maximum of about five seconds coming off the clock between stoppages.  And that's before you add in the replay reviews!

Even without teams being able to advance the ball on timeouts, men's NCAA Tournament games are quickly approaching that territory.  And the excessive use of replays doesn't just kill the momentum, it brings games to a screeching halt!  At the end of games, we spend more time watching the officials watch replays and Gene Steratore breaking down what they're watching than watching actual basketball!  But, hey, at least we get a lot of Gene Steratore out of it!

And there's no denying that replay is a valuable tool.  The whole point is to get calls right, and, when used correctly, replay can help officials do just that.  Too often, though, especially in the NCAA Tournament, replay isn't used as a tool.  It's more of a crutch than anything else.  Since it's there, the officials go to the monitor every chance they get, even when they don't really need to.  And therein lies the problem.

Many of these replay reviews in the last minute are to double check the clock and result in tenths of a second being added.  The reason for this is because they don't use Precision Timing in the NCAA Tournament.  I have no idea why!  With Precision Timing, the clock stops as soon as the official blows their whistle.  By not using it, you're relying on the clock operator's reaction time, which will obviously be slightly delayed.  I know that a lot of NBA arenas aren't set up for Precision Timing (again, not sure why not), so that might be why they don't use it in the NCAA Tournament.  But using it would eliminate a lot of the stoppages that are just to check the clock.

While March Madness is obviously the marquee event that brings this issue into the spotlight, the problem certainly isn't limited to the NCAA Tournament.  It's more prominent in the NCAA Tournament since those games are already longer because of the longer media timeouts and extra commercials, but overreliance on replay is an issue in the regular season and conference tournaments, too.  So much so, in fact, that Jay Bilas made a suggestion that's been echoed by many and could definitely help.  Going to coach's challenges.

Right now, whether they go to the monitor is entirely up to the officials.  Coaches can ask them to look at something, but the officials ultimately have the final say.  More often than not, they'll grant a coach's request, but they aren't required to.  However, since the officials are the only ones who can decide if they go to replay, the game is entirely at their mercy.  And, while the replay rules do limit the type of plays they can look at, there are still plenty of situations where they can (and do).

If coaches had challenges at their disposal, though, replay would be used a lot less liberally.  The officials would still have the ability to review plays on their own in certain situations (potential flagrant fouls, for example), but coach's challenges would, in theory, limit its overuse over the course of the game.  If a coach deems a play important enough to challenge, they can as long as they have challenges remaining (and a timeout available in case the challenge is unsuccessful).  If not, no need to go to replay.

Going to coach's challenges would make the use of replay more strategic, too.  A coach may not want to risk his last timeout on a play where it might've been off them, but they can't tell for sure.  Likewise, do you risk burning a challenge early and not having it later in the game when you might need it?  Give each coach two challenges per game.  If they're right, they get to keep them (as long as they have a timeout).  If they're wrong, it costs them a timeout.  

Every sport that uses replay has some sort of challenge system except for college basketball.  It's time to change that.  Because the sheer volume of reviews in some NCAA Tournament games make them difficult to watch.  There's plenty of excitement on the court.  People want to see that.  Not officials watching TV.

Baseball 2025 (AL East)

Well, we've reached the end of our journey.  The final installment of the baseball season preview.  The AL East.  Which is typically one of the most competitive divisions in Baseball and figures to be again.  The Yankees won the pennant last year.  The Orioles made the playoffs.  The Red Sox got some pitching and should be much better.  The Rays are playing at the Yankees' Spring Training stadium since theirs was destroyed by a hurricane.  And the Blue Jays are looking to get the most out of their last season before Vladimir Guerrero Jr. becomes a free agent.

Last year, it was the AL Central that had three playoff teams.  This season, I'd be shocked if it wasn't the AL East that does it.  Because I think it'll be a three-team toss-up between the Yankees, Orioles and Red Sox.  The division race will probably come down to the wire (Orioles at Yankees is the final series of the season), and the two that don't win will probably be wild cards.

And let's not forget about the Blue Jays, either.  They finished last in 2024 and know they very well could lose their franchise player in free agency.  Will they go all-in to win this year as a result?  And the Rays' situation is just unfortunate.  They were all set to finally get a new ballpark, then the hurricane came in, destroyed their current one and forced them to scrap the plans for the new one.  Now their future in the Tampa area is in question.

Ultimately, though, I see those top three teams all winning 90 games this season.  Injuries could be a huge factor in which one ends up on top, too.  We've already seen what injuries have done to the Yankees.  It's because of those Yankee injuries that I'm picking Baltimore to win the division, with the Yankees and Red Sox each getting wild cards (and playing each other in the 4-5 Wild Card Series).

1. Baltimore Orioles: Now that the Orioles have established themselves as a consistent playoff contender, winning in October is the next step.  They got swept by the Royals in the Wild Card Series a year after getting swept by the Rangers in the Division Series.  They're in danger of becoming the Twins!  You've gotta think they'll get another chance to reverse those postseason fortunes, though.  Because this is cleary one of the six best teams in the American League.

The Orioles are young, too, so we'll be saying that about them for a while.  This year, they'll add a full season of Jackson Holliday to that group, which already includes Adley Rutschmann, Gunnar Henderson, Colton Cowser and Jordan Westburg.  They've got a lights-out closer in Felix Bautista, too.  If there's one area of weakness, it's probably the starting rotation, especially since Corbin Burnes left as a free agent and signed with Arizona.  I think it's good enough.  Which is all they need with that excellent lineup.  It's not as good as the Yankees or Red Sox rotation, though, and that could ultimately prove to be the difference in a close AL East race.  I'm still picking the Orioles to win the division, but it's an ever-so-slight advantage.
Projected Lineup: Colton Cowser-LF, Gunnar Henderson-SS, Adley Rutschmann-C, Ryan O'Hearn-DH, Ryan Mountcastle-1B, Jordan Westburg-3B, Cedric Mullins-CF, Tyler O'Neill-RF, Jackson Holliday-2B
Projected Rotation: Zach Eflin, Charlie Morton, Dean Kremer, Tomoyuki Sugano, Cade Povich
Closer: Felix Bautista
Projected Record: 93-69

2. New York Yankees: This Spring has not been kind to the Yankees.  It's not just injuries.  It's serious ones to key players.  Gerrit Cole out for the year.  Luis Gil out until at least the All*Star Break.  Giancarlo Stanton out for God knows how long.  Yet, they're still well-positioned to return to the playoffs and even potentially defend their American League title.  Juan Soto heading across town might've ultimately been a blessing.  Because they were able to take the money earmarked for Soto and use it to get Max Fried, Cody Bellinger, Paul Goldschmidt and Devin Williams.  Those four guys wouldn't all still be Yankees had Soto stayed.

Isn't it funny, too, how they spent the entire winter trying to trade Marcus Stroman, and now he's one of the most important members of the rotation?  Sometimes the best trades are the ones you don't make!  Although, you know that the Yankees' Opening Day roster and the one they end the season with will be totally different.  They still want a right-handed power bat and still don't have a third baseman.  Don't be surprised if they add a starting pitcher, too.  So, the roster is still very much a work-in-progress.  Which means it's only gonna get better.  And what they have now is pretty good.
Projected Lineup: Austin Wells-C, Aaron Judge-RF, Cody Bellinger-CF, Paul Goldschmidt-1B, Jazz Chisholm Jr.-2B, Anthony Volpe-SS, Jasson Dominguez-LF, Ben Rice-DH, Oswaldo Cabrera-3B
Projected Rotation: Max Fried, Carlos Rodon, Marcus Stroman, Will Warren, Carlos Carrasco
Closer: Devin Williams
Projected Record: 91-71

3. Boston Red Sox: Boston made a concerted effort to improve on its most glaring weakness over the past few seasons.  And boy did they address that starting rotation!  They swung a trade with the White Sox for Garrett Crochet and signed World Series hero Walker Buehler as a free agent.  They also brought in Lucas Giolito, who could be quite a weapon if he can stay healthy and regain his form of a couple seasons ago in Chicago.  They're all set with the back of games, too.  Liam Hendriks is back after missing all of last season, and they'll give Aroldis Chapman the opportunity to close (which is the role he's best suited for).

What makes less sense to me is the Alex Bregman signing.  It really just seems like a flex by a team that has money.  Because he's a third baseman and so is Rafael Devers, their best player who they've already made a long-term commitment to.  The current plan is to play Bregman at third and have Devers DH, but they already had Masataka Yoshida in place at DH (and they moved him there because they don't think he's a very good outfielder).  Ceddanne Rafaela and Jarren Duran have enough versatility that they can probably make it work.  It'll be an awkward fit, though.  And it was just so they can add Bregman's bat to the lineup (which I get, but they still need a second baseman).
Projected Lineup: Jarren Duran-CF, Alex Bregman-3B, Rafael Devers-DH, Triston Casas-1B, Trevor Story-SS, Masataka Yoshida-LF, Wilyer Abreu-RF, Connor Wong-C, Ceddanne Rafaela-2B
Projected Rotation: Garrett Crochet, Tanner Houck, Walker Buehler, Richard Fitts, Sean Newcombe
Closer: Aroldis Chapman
Projected Record: 90-72

4. Toronto Blue Jays: I don't want to say it's a make-or-break season in Toronto, but it sure does feel like that.  The Blue Jays know they need to give Vladito a reason to stay.  And they've done a good job of trying to convince him that they're in it to win now.  Anthony Santander is a perfect fit in that lineup, and he's protection for both Guerrero and George Springer.  They also traded for Andres Gimenez, who will slot in at the bottom of the lineup and really round it out.  On paper, the Blue Jays should have one of the best offenses in the game.

Their most intriguing move, however, might be signing Max Scherzer.  He's not the same pitcher he used to be, but if they can get even a sampling of Vintage Scherzer, that's a dangerous No. 4 starter!  Of course, there's no guarantee of that happening with Scherzer's age and recent injury history.  Still, with Kevin Gausman, Jose Berrios and Chris Bassitt in the front of the rotation, Toronto's pitching will be formidable.  They also have a new closer in former Phillie Jeff Hoffman.  The Blue Jays will either crash & burn or be a playoff team.  They're capable of doing either.
Projected Lineup: Bo Bichette-SS, George Springer-LF, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.-1B, Anthony Santander-RF, Ernie Clement-3B, Alejandro Kirk-C, Will Wagner-DH, Myles Straw-CF, Andres Gimenez-2B
Projected Rotation: Kevin Gausman, Jose Berrios, Chris Bassitt, Max Scherzer, Bowden Francis
Closer: Jeff Hoffman
Projected Record: 79-83

5. Tampa Bay Rays: If not for the Yankees offering them use of Steinbrenner Field, I don't know what the Rays would've done this season.  But playing there will definitely take its toll.  Not because of the stadium itself.  It's beautiful and one of the better Minor League facilities in terms of amenities.  And I actually think it'll help attendance since an 11,000-person sellout is a much better atmosphere than 14,000 spread around a 35,000-seat dump.  Rather, it's the amount of travel they'll have to do late in the season.  They adjusted the schedule, frontloading their home games because of the summer weather in Tampa (and Steinbrenner Field, unlike Tropicana Field, doesn't have a roof).  That could ultimately be what dooms the Rays, though.

It's not just the stadium situation, however.  Talent-wise, the Rays trail behind the rest of the division, too.  Of course, that's often the case, and they usually still find a way to win 90 games.  I don't see that happening this year, though.  Losing Shane McClanahan is huge for a team so reliant on its pitching staff.  The guys behind him in the rotation aren't nearly as good.  And the lineup lacks firepower, so they're gonna need to rely on that pitching staff and winning a lot of 3-2 games.
Projected Lineup: Yandy Diaz-DH, Brandon Lowe-2B, Junior Caminero-3B, Josh Lowe-RF, Christopher Morel-LF, Jonathan Aranda-1B, Jonny DeLuca-CF, Danny Jansen-C, Ha-Seong Kim-SS
Projected Rotation: Ryan Pepiot, Taj Bradley, Drew Rasmussen, Shane Baz, Zack Littell
Closer: Pete Fairbanks
Projected Record: 75-87

So, there you have it.  All six divisions.  Just to recap, my AL division winners are the Orioles, Guardians and Rangers, with the wild cards going to the Yankees, Red Sox and Astros.  In the National League, it's the Braves, Cubs and Dodgers winning their divisions, and the Phillies, Mets and Padres as the wild card teams.

I think the four best teams in Baseball reside in the National League, so it shouldn't be a surprise that I think the NL pennant winner will also win the World Series.  As for which team that'll be, how can you go against the Dodgers?  They're trying to do something that hasn't been done in 25 years, and they have a great chance of doing it.  The World Series will be a matchup between the last two champions, in fact.  That's right, I'm saying Dodgers over Rangers in the 2025 World Series.

Baseball 2025 (AL Central)

Three teams from the AL Central made the playoffs last season.  Not only that, they all won a playoff series.  So, playing 13 games each against the White Sox clearly wasn't the only reason the Royals and Tigers reached the postseason.  They've both got incredibly young teams, too, so there's plenty of reason for them to be optimistic about a return.  But, they could just as easily come crashing back to Earth.

That's the thing about the AL Central.  There's no standout team, but, outside of the White Sox, none of them are truly bad, either.  On paper, Cleveland is the best team and should win the division.  But that's by no means a lock.  Not when they've got question marks on the pitching staff.  And the Twins finished fourth last year, but would it surprise anyone if they end up putting it together and won the division?

I'm also curious to see how Kansas City and Detroit follow up their 2024 success.  Will it be like Seattle, where it was just a one-year thing?  Or will it be like Baltimore, where it was the start of something lasting?  With the Royals especially, there's no reason to think it can't be lasting.  Although, last year they both needed only 86 wins to make the playoffs.  This season will likely require more, and I'm not sure I see either of those teams winning the 89-90 they'll need to get in.

Part of the reason for that is simply because I don't think it's possible for the White Sox to be anywhere near as bad as their historically terrible 2024 season.  The White Sox set a Major League record with 121 losses last year.  While they won't be good by any means, they'll be better.  And, because the White Sox should win more games, that probably means more losses for everybody else.  In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if the White Sox end up having a say in who wins the AL Central.  Because they're gonna play well against somebody.

1. Cleveland Guardians: With Cleveland, it almost always comes down to pitching.  When they get it, they're good.  When they don't, they're bad.  I hate to make it sound so simple, but with the Guardians, it really is.  And, let's not forget, they've got one of the best bullpens in the game, headlined by All*Star closer Emmanuel Clase.  And they've got the best combination of pitching and hitting in the AL Central.  Which is why they have to be considered the favorites to repeat as division champs.

This is even after completely remaking their lineup.  They traded Josh Naylor to Arizona, with Carlos Santana returning for another tour of duty.  Andres Gimenez was also traded.  He's now in Toronto.  Yet, the Guardians still have enough pieces around Jose Ramirez that he won't be expected to do everything.  And this team knows as well as anybody that they don't need to have the best team in the American League.  They just need to have the best team in the division and be good enough to compete against the good teams in the playoffs.  The Guardians aren't as good as last year, but they're still the best team in the division.
Projected Lineup: Steven Kwan-LF, Carlos Santana-1B, Jose Ramirez-3B, Jhonkensy Noel-RF, Lane Thomas-CF, Kyle Manzardo-DH, Austin Hedges-C, Gabriel Arias-2B, Brayan Rocchio-SS
Projected Rotation: Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams, Luis Ortiz, Ben Lively, Logan Allen
Closer: Emmanuel Clase
Projected Record: 89-73

2. Detroit Tigers: Last season, the Tigers made the playoffs with a pitching staff that consisted of Tarik Skubal and not much else.  Skubal was sensational and a deserving Cy Young winner, but there's no possible way they'll be able to do that again.  What's even crazier about what they did last season was how they only got hot and on that roll that carried them into the playoffs after they traded Jack Flaherty to the Dodgers.  Flaherty won a ring in LA, then came back as a free agent to give Detroit a formidable 1-2 punch with Skubal.

They also brought in a big-name free-agent position player--Gleyber Torres.  I'm very curious to see how that relationship works out.  On the Yankees, he didn't have to be The Man.  In Detroit, he does.  How will that impact his production?  (We saw what happened when they signed Javy Baez to that big contract.)  If he proves he can anchor a lineup and the Tigers' young core continues building on last year's success, they'll be in good shape.  A lot of things went right for the Tigers last year, though, especially at the end of the season.  How realistic is it to expect that to happen again?
Projected Lineup: Wenceel Perez-CF, Gleyber Torres-2B, Riley Greene-LF, Spencer Torkelson-DH, Colt Keith-1B, Kerry Carpenter-RF, Zach McKinstry-3B, Javier Baez-SS, Jake Rogers-C
Projected Rotation: Tarik Skubal, Jack Flaherty, Reese Olson, Casey Mize, Jackson Jobe
Closer: Andrew Chafin
Projected Record: 84-78

3. Kansas City Royals: Don't look now, but the Kansas City Royals could very well be on the verge of doing what they did a decade ago again.  Last year, the Royals made the playoffs for the first time since their 2015 World Series championship season, and they've made sure Bobby Witt Jr. isn't going anywhere.  They aren't just building around their budding superstar, either, they're putting quality pieces around him.  That included making a trade with Cincinnati for Jonathan India, giving them both a second baseman and a leadoff hitter.  And if Vinnie Pasquantino stays healthy all season, look out!  That guy can mash a baseball!

The biggest key to their success last season, though, was that starting rotation.  Cole Ragans and Seth Lugo both made the All*Star team.  They're really what made the Royals go.  Kansas City doesn't need them to pitch at the same level.  They do need them to be close to it, though.  That's the biggest question mark heading into this season.  The lineup should be solid.  If they get the pitching to back it up, a return to the playoffs is certainly possible.  A division title isn't even out of the question.  They won't take anybody by surprise this year, though.  That's a whole different challenge.  How will they handle actually having expectations?
Projected Lineup: Jonathan India-2B, Bobby Witt Jr.-SS, Vinnie Pasquantino-1B, Salvador Perez-C, Mark Canha-DH, Hunter Renfroe-RF, Maikel Garcia-3B, Kyle Isbel-CF, MJ Melendez-LF
Projected Rotation: Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, Kris Bubic, Michael Lorenzen
Closer: Carlos Estevez
Projected Record: 82-80

4. Minnesota Twins: Whenever you think the Twins will be good, they miss the playoffs.  Whenever you think they won't, they end up winning the division.  Take last season.  Minnesota went in as the prohibitive favorites, finished fourth, and watched three other AL Central teams make the playoffs instead.  Heading into this year, it would be foolish to expect them to place any higher than fourth again.  Which probably means they'll win 90 games.  But, then again, maybe not.

Honestly, I can't see the Twins finishing above any of those three playoff teams from last season.  Their pitching isn't as good as the three teams above them, and neither is their lineup.  Byron Buxton is an electric player when healthy, but he almost never is.  If, somehow, they can manage to keep him in the lineup all season, that would be a start.  Even with a healthy Buxton, though, I don't think they have enough to keep pace with Cleveland.  Kansas City and Detroit, maybe.  But not all three.
Projected Lineup: Byron Buxton-CF, Willi Castro-3B, Carlos Correa-SS, Ty France-1B, Jose Miranda-DH, Trevor Larnach-LF, Ryan Jeffers-C, Matt Wallner-RF, Edouard Julien-2B
Projected Rotation: Pablo Lopez, Bailey Ober, Joe Ryan, Chris Paddack, Simeon Woods Richardson
Closer: Jhoan Duran
Projected Record: 77-85

5. Chicago White Sox: Nobody thought the White Sox would be any good last season.  And boy, they were not!  So, in a way, they lived up to expectations (as low as they might've been).  What I don't think anyone expected, though, was for them to be THAT bad!  There is one benefit to a lost season like that, though.  Things can't get much worse!  And, based on that alone, this season will almost certainly have to be better.  That doesn't mean the White Sox will be any good.  They're still one of the worst teams in the Majors.  I'm just saying don't expect another Major League record for losses.

As crazy as it sounds, I'm even willing to go out on a limb and say the White Sox won't even have the worst record in Baseball.  That honor, I'd expect, will go to the Angels.  The White Sox have enough talent there to think they'll bounce back.  In the lineup at least.  Their pitching is still horrible.  In fact, it's even worse now that Garret Crochet has changed his Sox.  They'll still lose 100.  They won't lose 120.
Projected Lineup: Andrew Benintendi-LF, Luis Robert Jr.-CF, Andrew Vaughn-1B, Bryan Ramos-DH, Korey Lee-C, Manuel Vargas-3B, Mike Tauchman-RF, Josh Rojas-2B, Lenyn Sosa-SS
Projected Rotation: Sean Burke, Davis Martin, Martin Perez, Shane Smith, Mike Clevinger
Closer: Justin Anderson
Projected Record: 55-107

Baseball 2025 (AL West)

The Astros won yet another AL West title last season.  Not so much because they were the best team.  But more because the others were just worse.  The Rangers had all kinds of injury issues (especially in the rotation) after winning the World Series in 2023.  The Mariners are still looking to return to their playoff form from 2022.  The Angels were adjusting to life without Ohtani.  And the A's were playing a lame-duck season in Oakland with players who cared about as much as the fans did.

This season figures to be a little better for the division.  Texas should bounce back and is probably the division favorite should that happen.  Houston knows that the window is closing, too.  The Astros will have a very different look this season because of it.  And don't count out Seattle putting it together and making a playoff run like they did a few years ago.

Things in California may not be much better, though.  The Angels have been a mess for a while.  They need Mike Trout to actually stay healthy if they have any chance of being relevant.  I'd actually rather be the Athletics than the Angels right now.  Sure, they're vagabonds playing in a Minor League park in Sacramento, but their owner (who clearly just didn't want to be in Oakland) is actually investing in the team in an obvious attempt to make them relevant/competitive once they move to Las Vegas.

Still, though, it wouldn't be a total shock to see two playoff teams come out of the AL West.  Especially if the two Texas teams spend the whole season jockeying for first place.  The Mariners making it three is harder to see.  But they'll be that annoying team that hangs around all season and ends up falling a few games short of getting in.

1. Texas Rangers: After the high of winning the World Series in 2023, the Rangers didn't even make the playoffs last season.  Which really was the result of the injuries that decimated their pitching staff more than anything else.  Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer both missed a massive amount of time, and they simply didn't have the pitching depth to make up for those losses.  It's not like that's no longer a concern, either.  Scherzer's in Toronto now, but how much can they really rely on deGrom?  He's 36 years old and has made a grand total of nine starts in his two years with Texas.  If he's actually still pitching in August, though, that's a huge bonus for the Rangers.

They've got a much deeper lineup this season, too.  First, they swung a trade with the Marlins to get Jake Burger as their new first baseman.  Then they signed Joc Pederson to DH.  That offense will carry Texas.  The pitching just needs to be good enough.  The big area of concern is the bullpen.  But you've gotta figure that will be addressed during the season.  Provided everyone stays healthy, we're looking at one of the best teams in the American League.  They're far and away the best team in the AL West.  Expect the Rangers to finally end Houston's run of division titles.
Projected Lineup: Marcus Semien-2B, Corey Seager-SS, Adolis Garcia-RF, Jake Burger-1B, Evan Carter-LF, Josh Jung-3B, Jonah Heim-C, Joc Pederson-DH, Leody Taveras-CF
Projected Rotation: Nathan Eovaldi, Jacob deGrom, Tyler Mahle, Kumar Rocker, Patrick Corbin
Closer: Jacob Webb
Projected Record: 91-71

2. Houston Astros: Moving Jose Altuve to left field was such a strange move.  I really just don't get it!  And they did it so late in Spring Training, too.  It would've been one thing had they gone in with that as the plan as soon as Tucker was traded, but, even with Bregman gone, they're still committed to it.  They obviously know what the master plan here is better than I do, but that doesn't make it any less confusing.  Especially when they traded their best player and let their second-best player walk as a free agent (after making a customary attempt to keep him).

Still, there's no reason to think there isn't at least one more year in this window of contention for Houston.  Their ALCS streak ended last year, but, even without Tucker and Bregman, the Astros didn't just slip quietly into the night.  They added Christian Walker, who's a perfect fit for that lineup, and Isaac Paredes, who was playing third base even if Bregman re-signed (the Altuve thing would make a lot more sense if Bregman had moved to second).  And they have 85 starting pitchers, so the chances of five of them being healthy at any one point are pretty good.  Then, at the end of games, Josh Hader is one of the best closers in the business.  So, even though the window is closing, it's not closed yet.
Projected Lineup: Jose Altuve-LF, Jeremy Pena-SS, Yordan Alvarez-DH, Christian Walker-1B, Isaac Paredes-3B, Yainer Diaz-C, Chas McCormick-RF, Jake Meyers-CF, Mauricio Dubon-2B
Projected Rotation: Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown, Spencer Arrighetti, Ronel Blanco, Luis Garcia
Closer: Josh Hader
Projected Record: 89-73

3. Seattle Mariners: Seattle SHOULD be good!  I feel like people say that about the Mariners every year.  Yet, every year, it's pretty much the same situation where they're right around .500 and in the playoff mix before ultimately falling short.  I wouldn't be surprised if that's exactly what happens once again.  On paper, they're the third best team in the division.  They aren't as good as either Texas team, but they're better than both California teams.  The question is whether they'll win enough games to grab the third wild card.  Which, if everything goes right, they can.

It all starts with the pitching staff.  Logan Gilbert and Luis Castillo are excellent at the front of the rotation.  Do they have enough depth behind them, though?  And they need somebody other than Julio Rodriguez to hit.  If they get that production from the lineup, they'll be in good shape.  If they don't, that's a huge burden to put on the pitchers.  And, ultimately, I'm just not sure they'll get the combination.  They'll either hit and get no pitching or pitch well and get no hitting.  Which will be just enough to finish where they usually do.  Around .500.
Projected Lineup: J.P. Crawford-SS, Randy Arozarena-LF, Julio Rodriguez-CF, Mitch Garver-DH, Luke Raley-1B, Jorge Polanco-3B, Cal Raleigh-C, Dylan Moore-2B, Victor Robles-RF
Projected Rotation: Logan Gilbert, Luis Castillo, Bryce Miller, Bryan Woo, George Kirby
Closer: Andres Munoz
Projected Record: 83-79

4. Athletics: As soon as they got out of Oakland, they started spending.  First, it was signing Luis Severino to the biggest free agent contract in team history, then it was locking up Brent Rooker on a long-term deal that will take them into the Las Vegas Era.  That's three years away, though.  They're currently in the Sacramento Era while officially not calling anywhere home (even though they have a Las Vegas patch on their sleeves).  Ultimately, that's the most fascinating thing about this team heading into this season.  Talent-wise, they're significantly better.  But how much of an impact will the Sacramento Summer heat and playing in a Minor League ballpark have?

Frankly, I wouldn't be surprised if they get off to a hot start.  It's been a very fraught situation for this franchise over the past few years, so having some certainty and knowing the current situation is only temporary have to bring a huge sense of relief.  I'm just worried that the conditions will wear on them over the course of the season, though.  They're in much better shape than they were last season, but I think the goal for the next few years is to be competitive enough to generate enough excitement for Las Vegas.  Although, playing in front of 9,000 fans in Sacramento will feel much different than playing in front of 9,000 fans in Oakland.  In Oakland, the stadium was crap and it was always empty.  In Sacramento, that'll be a sellout.  That will almost certainly help, too.
Projected Lineup: Lawrence Butler-RF, JJ Bleday-CF, Brent Rooker-DH, Shea Langeliers-C, Zack Gelof-2B, Miguel Andujar-LF, Tyler Soderstrom-1B, Gio Urshela-3B, Jacob Wilson-SS
Projected Rotation: Luis Severino, JP Sears, Jeffrey Springs, Osvaldo Bido, Joey Estes
Closer: Mason Miller
Projected Record: 71-91

5. Los Angeles Angels: Anthony Rendon's contract will go down as perhaps the worst free agent signing in Major League history.  And this is the same team that was so desperate to get out of the 10-year contract they gave Albert Pujols, they just cut a first-ballot Hall of Famer at the end.  Rendon will start the season on his second home, the 60-day injured list, but even if he wasn't, he doesn't even figure into the Angels' plans.  They brought in Yoan Moncada as their new third baseman, and he would've been the starter over Rendon regardless.

Their other big name who's spent an inordinate amount of time on the IL, of course, is Mike Trout.  Trout loves playing center field, but this season, they're moving him to right, hoping that'll help keep him healthy.  It's worth a shot.  Because if the Angels are gonna have any chance this season, they obviously need to have Trout in the lineup.  Even then, it'll be a long season in Orange County (especially since the Dodgers are the Dodgers).  I'd say "at least they're not the White Sox," but I actually think they'll give the White Sox a run for their money as the worst team in Baseball.
Projected Lineup: Zach Neto-SS, Mike Trout-RF, Taylor Ward-LF, Jorge Soler-DH, Yoan Moncada-3B, Logan O'Hoppe-C, Nolan Schaunel-1B, Luis Rengifo-2B, Jo Adell-CF
Projected Rotation: Yusei Kikuchi, Tyler Anderson, Jose Soriano, Kyle Hendricks, Reid Detmers
Closer: Kenley Jansen
Projected Record: 54-108

Baseball 2025 (NL East)

Three teams from the NL East made the playoffs last season.  The third-place team reached the NLCS...then went out and gave Juan Soto the biggest free agent contract in history!  And they still might only be the third-best team in the division!  Which, ultimately, might not matter come October.  Because the order of finish for this top three really doesn't make a difference.  As long as they all get back to the playoffs, it's realistic to see any of them winning the pennant.

As for which of the three should nominally be considered the division favorite, you really could just pick out of a hat.  Things will be THAT competitive between the Phillies, Mets and Braves this season.  With the injuries to the Mets' rotation (which isn't that good to begin with), I think they're the safest bet to say will be a wild card.  The Braves and Phillies are so close, though, that it really could be either order.  I'm going with Atlanta simply because I think they're a little deeper, but it really is ever so slight.

And you really can't help but feel for the Marlins and Nationals sometimes.  They both figure to be bad and neither one is trying to be competitive, but that's not even the point.  The point is that they're gonna be stuck in the same situation for a while.  Even when they go back to trying to be good, the other three aren't exactly going anywhere...and they're gonna have to finish ahead of at least one of them to make the playoffs!

So, yes, I do anticipate the NL East having three playoff teams again.  I also expect all three of them to win 90 games.  And, frankly, they're probably the second-, third- and fourth-best teams in the National League behind the Dodgers.  Come October, they've all got a chance of knocking off the Dodgers in a short series, too. 

1. Atlanta Braves: Last season ended about as poorly as it possibly could for the Braves.  They were sitting pretty, then they had to play that makeup doubleheader with the Mets before immediately flying cross country to play the Padres in the Wild Card Series.  And they were all must-win games, so their rotation was decimated.  Of course, they were only in that position because they put themselves in it.  But, the point is, it gives them motivation heading into this season.  The Braves will want to make sure that doesn't happen again.  And, frankly, there's no reason why it should.

After getting stuck in the abyss during his years in Boston, Chris Sale returned to his Cy Young form last season.  And, the Braves have taken a page out of the Dodgers' book by carrying about nine starting pitchers.  That's why I've gotta tab them as the division favorites.  They've kept a remarkably consistent lineup, too.  This year they added Jurickson Profar to it.  Can he repeat his All*Star form from San Diego?  Not having Ronald Acuna at the start of the season is a blow.  But they've been without him before, so it's not like it's something they aren't used to.  And there's so much talent on the Braves that putting Acuna back in the lineup at some point will only make them that much better.
Projected Lineup: Ozzie Albies-2B, Jurickson Profar-LF, Matt Olson-1B, Austin Riley-3B, Marcell Ozuna-DH, Sean Murphy-C, Jarred Kelenic-RF, Orlando Arcia-SS, Michael Harris-CF
Projected Rotation: Chris Sale, Reynaldo Lopez, Spencer Schwellenbach, Ian Anderson, Spencer Strider
Closer: Raisel Iglesias
Projected Record: 94-68


2. Philadelphia Phillies: What's not to like about the Philadelphia Phillies?  Entering the playoffs last season, I had them pegged as the only team capable of beating the Dodgers.  That may have been true.  I just didn't account for the Phillies losing to the Mets!  But, their excellent regular season followed by playoff disappointment at the hands of a division rival in 2024, will serve to motivate the 2025 Phillies.  Who don't really look all that different.

Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola form one of the best rotation 1-2's in the game.  I really like the Phillies' bullpen, too.  And they finally figured out that Kyle Schwarber isn't a leadoff hitter!  The only major difference between last season and this season was the addition of free agent Max Kepler to play left field.  He's a perfect fit in the Phillies lineup, especially when you consider he'll probably bat lower in the order.  I mean, Rob Thomson can really set up his lineup any way he wants and will find success.  This team is that good offensively!  Throw in great starting pitching and a solid bullpen, and the Phillies will once again be among the top teams in not just the National League, but all of Baseball, this season.
Projected Lineup: Trea Turner-SS, Alec Bohm-3B, Bryce Harper-1B, Nick Castellanos-RF, Kyle Schwarber-DH, J.T. Realmuto-C, Max Kepler-LF, Bryson Stott-2B, Brandon Marsh-CF
Projected Rotation: Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Jesus Luzardo, Cristopher Sanchez, Ranger Suarez
Closer: Jordan Romano
Projected Record: 93-69

3. New York Mets: Steve Cohen said he wasn't going to be outbid for Juan Soto, and he wasn't.  The Mets gave Soto the biggest free agent contract in history, then sat around waiting for Pete Alonso to decide if he wanted to come back or not.  Alonso eventually did re-sign, which was an absolute necessity to give Soto lineup protection.  And, let's not forget, this is a team that was good enough to make the NLCS last season and just got a whole lot better.  Lineup-wise, at least.  The pitching staff is still a work in progress.

It's because of their starting pitching (which isn't anywhere near as good as Atlanta's or Philadelphia's) that I can't, in good conscience, pick the Mets to finish any higher than third.  I guess part of the thought process behind signing Clay Holmes as a starter is that he can't blow saves in the first inning?  They're relying on a bunch of third and fourth starters to be healthy and productive against two rotations that are better.  For all the money the Mets overpaid Soto (and, yes, they overpaid him), they probably should've invested more in the pitching staff.  Because that will be their Achilles' heel.  The Mets will need to win a lot of games 8-6.  Because they won't be winning too many 2-1 games.
Projected Lineup: Francisco Lindor-SS, Juan Soto-RF, Pete Alonso-1B, Mark Vientos-3B, Jesse Winker-DH, Brandon Nimmo-LF, Francisco Alvarez-C, Tyrone Taylor-CF, Jeff McNeil-2B
Projected Rotation: Kodai Senga, Clay Holmes, Sean Manaea, Frankie Montas, Griffin Canning
Closer: Edwin Diaz
Projected Record: 91-71

4. Washington Nationals: If they were in the NL Central instead of the NL East, the Nationals would be like the Reds.  A team that has the potential to contend in a weak division if everything goes right.  Unfortunately, however, that's not the case.  Washington has the chance to play spoiler and could very well have a say in who wins the NL East, but it won't be them.  The Nationals have some quality young talent.  Just not enough of it when they're competing against three behemoths.

Still, though, I'd much rather be Washington than Miami.  The Nationals have a good core to build around in CJ Abrams and Keibert Ruiz, and they've actually brought in some veterans in the likes of Paul DeJong (free agent), Josh Bell (free agent) and Nathaniel Lowe (trade from Rangers).  MacKenzie Gore has developed into a solid No. 1 starter, too.  Even if everything goes right, their chances of competing in the NL East this season aren't that high.  The upside is definitely there, though.  They're only 2-3 years away from legitimately challenging the Big Three.
Projected Lineup: Luis Garcia Jr.-2B, CJ Abrams-SS, Josh Bell-DH, Nathaniel Lowe-1B, Dylan Crews-RF, Jacob Young-CF, Keibert Ruiz-C, Paul DeJong-3B, James Wood-LF
Projected Rotation: MacKenzie Gore, Jake Irvin, Michael Soroka, Mitchell Parker, Trevor Williams
Closer: Kyle Finnegan
Projected Record: 70-92

5. Miami Marlins: Sandy Alcantara is back after missing all of last season due to Tommy John surgery.  So, there's that.  Whether he'll still be on the Marlins at the end of the season is a much different question.  Because he'll be one of the most coveted starting pitchers on the market, and you know plenty of contenders will hope to make use of Alcantara's services.  It would actually be shocking if they don't trade him at the Deadline (or much sooner).  Because, outside of him, this is essentially a Minor League team.

Name another player on the Miami Marlins besides Sandy Alcantara.  Can't do it, can you?  Fortunately, teams like the White Sox, Angels and Rockies are still around.  Otherwise, we'd be talking about the Marlins as the worst team in Baseball.  They've got a lot of young guys who'll see regular playing time, so that'll bring the typical growing pains.  That would be bad enough if they weren't in the same division as three of the best teams in baseball.  Put the two together and you've got the recipe for another long season in Miami.
Projected Lineup: Otto Lopez-2B, Xavier Edwards-SS, Kyle Stowers-LF, Jonah Bride-DH, Matt Mervis-1B, Derek Hill-CF, Connor Norby-3B, Griffin Conine-RF, Nick Fortes-C
Projected Rotation: Sandy Alcantara, Cal Quantrill, Max Meyer, Connor Gillespie, Ryan Weathers
Closer: Calvin Faucher
Projected Record: 65-97

Baseball 2025 (NL Central)

Even though they're in last place right now, the Chicago Cubs are probably the best team in the NL Central.  It's not a very high bar to clear.  The NL Central is possibly the weakest division in Baseball, and will almost certainly get only one playoff team.  And that division winner might only need 87-88 wins.  But, the Cubs aren't so far ahead of the pack that it won't be a close division race.  In fact, I think this could be one of the more competitive divisions all season.

Milwaukee somehow always manages to either make the playoffs or get close.  Regardless of who's on the roster or managing the team.  And Cincinnati managed to coax Terry Francona out of retirement.  Don't be surprised if having a future Hall of Famer in the dugout was all the Reds needed to become a contender.  Especially in this division.

The Pirates have Paul Skenes.  He's not enough to make them a playoff team, but he is enough to make them watchable every fifth day.  And, I can't believe I'm about to type this next sentence, but the Cardinals are entering a rebuilding phase.  It's crazy to think about St. Louis not even trying to be competitive, yet that's the situation entering the season.  Which probably means they'll win 90 games and Oliver Marmol will be the NL Manager of the Year.

So, while it's harder to say how it'll all shake out in this division than any other, there is one thing we can expect to see in the NL Central this season.  A competitive race that goes down to the wire between potentially three teams.  And they'll likely only be going for one available spot.  Because an NL Central team getting a wild card seems like a stretch.

1. Chicago Cubs: Trading for Kyle Tucker was an all-in move.  Of course, they traded for Kyle Tucker right after they traded away Cody Bellinger, but the point remains.  The Cubs wanted everyone to know that they're serious about winning in 2025.  Talent-wise, they've got the roster to do it, too.  On paper, they're the best team in the NL Central.  And they've got a great manager in Craig Counsell.  Although, with Tucker a free agent after this season and no guarantee he'll re-sign, that all-in could lead to a mid-July selloff if things go sideways.

Tucker isn't the only former Astro the Cubs added.  They also brought in Ryan Pressly as their new closer.  And Ryan Brasier from the Dodgers as a setup guy.  Do they have flaws?  Absolutely!  Do they still need some pieces?  Definitely!  They could sure use another starting pitcher, for one.  But, top to bottom, the Cubs have the deepest roster and greatest margin for error in the division.  That's why I think they're the team to beat in the NL Central.  Especially if they stay healthy and make some in-season additions.  They aren't anywhere near as good as the Dodgers or the three NL East teams.  But, the good thing is, they don't need to be.
Projected Lineup: Ian Happ-LF, Dansby Swanson-SS, Kyle Tucker-RF, Michael Busch-1B, Seiya Suzuki-DH, Pete Crow-Armstrong-CF, Nico Hoerner-2B, Matt Shaw-3B, Miguel Amaya-C
Projected Rotation: Shota Imanaga, Jameson Taillon, Justin Steele, Matthew Boyd, Colin Rea
Closer: Ryan Pressly
Projected Record: 90-72

2. Milwaukee Brewers: I'm picking the Cubs to win the division, but would it surprise anyone if the Brewers did?  In fact, I'll probably go back at the end of the season and be like "you're an idiot" for not picking Milwaukee when they run away with the division title.  Because, no matter what, they always end up right there at the end.  And they do it with an ever-changing cast of characters.  So, no, it wouldn't be a shock to see the Brewers win the division again.

Christian Yelich didn't even play in the second half of last season and they clearly didn't miss him.  Just imagine how dynamic their lineup will be if they get a full season of both Yelich and Jackson Chourio!  I'm curious to see how the Devin Williams trade impacts their bullpen, though.  They had one of the best closers in the game and now they no longer do.  They flipped him for Nestor Cortes, though, which makes their rotation that much longer.  Starting pitching is the biggest asset the Brewers possess.  If they're going to defend their division title, their pitching staff will be a big reason why.
Projected Lineup: Brice Turang-2B, Jackson Chourio-RF, Christian Yelich-LF, Rhys Hoskins-1B, William Contreras-C, Mark Canha-DH, Oliver Dunn-3B, Sal Frelick-CF, Joey Ortiz-SS
Projected Rotation: Freddy Peralta, Nestor Cortes, Aaron Civale, Jose Quintana, Brandon Woodruff
Closer: Trevor Megill
Projected Record: 86-76

3. Cincinnati Reds: Elly de la Cruz is on his way to becoming a superstar.  And this season could very well be his breakthrough.  I also wouldn't be surprised if Gavin Lux has a big year now that he'll get the chance to get some regular at-bats.  Same thing with Austin Hays, who was an All*Star in Baltimore before his playing time completely disappeared.  The Reds have always been able to hit.  That's never been a problem and won't be again this season.  They need to pitch, though.

Hunter Greene turned into a legitimate ace last season, and Cincinnati will rely on him to anchor the rotation again.  Brady Singer came over from Kansas City in the Jonathan India trade to give them a quality No. 2 behind Greene.  Then they've got veterans Wade Miley and Nick Martinez at the back end of the rotation.  And they've got a lights-out closer in Alexis Diaz.  If they get enough from their pitching staff, it's not crazy to think the Reds could challenge the Cubs and Brewers.  Because the talent disparity really isn't that much.
Projected Lineup: Elly de la Cruz-SS, Gavin Lux-2B, Spencer Steer-3B, Jemier Candelario-1B, Austin Hays-LF, Jake Fraley-RF, Christian Encarnacion-Strand-DH, Tyler Stephenson-C, TJ Friedl-CF
Projected Rotation: Hunter Greene, Brady Singer, Andrew Abbott, Wade Miley, Nick Martinez
Closer: Alexis Diaz
Projected Record: 81-81

4. Pittsburgh Pirates: Pittsburgh is that team that can be both really fun and really frustrating to watch.  The Pirates have a bunch of really good core players that other teams try to get at the Trade Deadline, but they always hold on to.  Guys like Bryan Reynolds and Mitch Keller and David Bednar.  Yet, even with that talented core, they're always out of it by mid-June.  And now they've got Paul Skenes, who took the National League by storm as a rookie last season.  Which only adds to the expectations in Pittsburgh.

Don't be surprised if they want to build around Skenes for a few years the same way they built their playoff teams around Gerrit Cole a decade ago.  And they really aren't that far away.  Because they've got that core group I mentioned, and they augmented with veterans Tommy Pham and Isiah Kiner-Falefa.  The IKF signing resulted in Oneil Cruz being moved to center field, with Reynolds shifting to right.  I'm curious to see how well Cruz, a career infielder, handles playing center.
Projected Lineup: Bryan Reynolds-RF, Andrew McCutchen-DH, Tommy Pham-LF, Ke'Bryan Hayes-3B, Oneil Cruz-CF, Spencer Horwitz-1B, Nick Gonzalez-2B, Isiah Kiner-Falefa-SS, Joey Bart-C
Projected Rotation: Paul Skenes, Mitch Keller, Jared Jones, Bailey Falter, Andrew Heaney
Closer: David Bednar
Projected Record: 76-86

5. St. Louis Cardinals: They've made it pretty clear that they don't want Nolan Arenado anymore.  So, of course, they head into the season with Arenado still on the roster.  Which isn't to say he still won't be traded at some point.  Frankly, it'd be shocking if he isn't.  Although, everyone expected him to be traded by now and he hasn't been, so maybe not.  Either way, whether they keep Arenado all season or not, it won't make much of a difference.  For the first time in a long time, the Cardinals aren't expected to or planning on being good.

If you take Arenado out of the equation, Sonny Gray is the biggest name on the roster, and he'll once again anchor the starting rotation.  They boast an excellent closer in Ryan Helsley, who I can see contenders wanting at the Trade Deadline.  After his first two seasons in St. Louis were a disaster, Willson Contreras has moved to first base and is loving his new position.  Other than Arenado and Contreras, it's a bunch of young guys in the lineup.  Which means the Cardinals will probably be really good in 2027-28 when that young core has 2-3 years of experience under their belts.
Projected Lineup: Lars Nootbaar-LF, Masyn Winn-SS, Nolan Arenado-3B, Willson Contreras-1B, Jordan Walker-RF, Alec Burleson-DH, Michael Siani-CF, Nolan Gorman-2B, Pedro Pages-C
Projected Rotation: Sonny Gray, Erick Fedde, Miles Mikolas, Andre Pallante, Steven Matz
Closer: Ryan Helsley
Projected Record: 73-89

Baseball 2025 (NL West)

Baseball season gets a special early opening with the Dodgers and Cubs playing in Tokyo.  Shohei Ohtani's the biggest star in the game...and he's Japanese...so the Dodgers' selection makes complete sense.  Especially when you throw in the fact they've also snagged a top Japanese starting pitcher in each of the last two offseasons.  And the Cubs are a global brand with Japanese stars of their own, so they make sense as an opponent.

With teams from the NL West and NL Central getting underway before every other division, I figured it made sense to flip the order for my annual baseball preview and start with those two.  I'll do the West first because, let's face it, it isn't really going out on much of a limb to say the Dodgers will win the division again.  That's what happens when you're dealing with a juggernaut that just keeps reloading.

As for how the other four teams will sort out, San Diego was a playoff team last season and almost beat the Dodgers in the Division Series.  The Padres could easily be a playoff team again.  Arizona was in the World Series two seasons ago and just missed the playoffs last year.  And they added Corbin Burnes at the top of their rotation, so the Diamondbacks could definitely make some noise.

The Giants are the fourth-best team in the division and their lineup isn't very deep.  They've got starting pitching, though, and any team with that is dangerous.  The Rockies lost 100 games for the first time in franchise history last season.  Not losing 100 again seems like a reasonable goal for 2025.  Because, like the Marlins and Nationals in the NL East, they're nowhere near talented enough to compete with the powerhouses at the top of the division.

1. Los Angeles Dodgers: I make fun of the Dodgers for stockpiling starting pitchers and outfielders, but there's obviously a method to their madness.  They've been THE dominant team in baseball for the better part of a decade and are coming off a World Series title, yet they're nowhere near satisfied.  It pisses off everybody else, but, this is how any fan should want their team to act.  Whether it's in the best interest of baseball is a different question (and will be what leads to the "Dodger Lockout" when the CBA expires after next season), but you've gotta respect how committed they are to winning and how they're willing to invest so many resources into doing just that.

Last season, they somehow ran out of starting pitching in the postseason, so they signed two of the biggest-name free-agent starters out there in Blake Snell and Roki Sasaki.  Plus, Ohtani will go back to pitching at some point early in the season.  As we've seen with the Yankees during Spring Training, you can never have enough starting pitching.  And now they've got protection for their injury protection.  The lineup is basically the same.  They signed Michael Conforto, which moves Mookie Betts to the infield full-time (for now) and made Gavin Lux expendable, so he was traded to Cincinnati.  Re-signing Tesocar Hernandez was huge, too.  That was such a perfect combination of player and team last season!
Projected Lineup: Shohei Ohtani-DH, Mookie Betts-SS, Freddie Freeman-1B, Teoscar Hernandez-RF, Will Smith-C, Max Muncy-3B, Michael Conforto-LF, Kike Hernandez-2B, Tommy Edman-CF
Projected Rotation: Blake Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow, Roki Sasaki, Dustin May, Shohei Ohtani
Closer: Blake Treinen
Projected Record: 103-59

2. San Diego Padres: Will Dylan Cease and Michael King still be Padres at the end of the season?  Will we even make it to Opening Day with those two still part of San Diego's rotation?  Those are the type of questions you always have to ask yourself regarding the Padres, who sent Juan Soto to the Yankees prior to last season, only to add Luis Arraez in May and become a playoff team.  There's no reason to think they can't be again.  Even if they make some changes during the season (either additions or subtractions).

Why is that?  Because the Padres boast some absolutely ridiculous talent!  Arraez, Manny Machado, Francisco Tatis Jr., Jackson Merrill, Xander Bogaerts, Jake Cronenworth.  They lost Jurickson Profar to Atlanta in free agency, but replaced him with Jason Heyward, who really only needs to provide a veteran presence.  The pitching is the big question mark.  Not because of doubts about their ability or injury concerns, but because they've got starting pitchers other teams will want who could very likely get traded.  Whether they are or not could depend on how close the Padres can stay to the Dodgers.  If they feel like they have a chance at returning to the playoffs, they'll probably keep them.  If not, expect them to be traded.
Projected Lineup: Luis Arraez-1B, Jackson Merrill-CF, Manny Machado-3B, Fernando Tatis Jr.-RF, Xander Bogaerts-SS, Jake Cronenworth-2B, Connor Joe-DH, Jason Heyward-LF, Elias Diaz-C
Projected Rotation: Dylan Cease, Michael King, Yu Darvish, Nick Pivetta, Randy Vasquez
Closer: Robert Suarez
Projected Record: 87-75

3. Arizona Diamondbacks: Corbin Burnes to Arizona came out of absolutely nowhere!  And it gives the Diamondbacks a top three in the rotation that's as good as anybody's.  If this team's going to return to the playoffs, it'll be on the strength of that pitching staff.  They won't challenge the Dodgers for the division title.  No one is delusional enough to think that.  But can they challenge the Padres for second and contend for a wild card spot?  Absolutely!  Especially since, on paper, they're stronger than their 2023 World Series squad.

They added some pop to the lineup in Josh Naylor, too.  Naylor had 30 & 100 for Cleveland last season and is that power threat the Diamondbacks really haven't had in a while.  And, outside of Naylor, they're still really lacking.  Ketel Marte and Corbin Carroll are both great, but they're contact-hitter/on-base guys.  That's where I worry about Arizona.  Their pitching will carry them, but will the lineup be so anemic that they end up being too reliant on their arms?  If they get just enough hitting, it's not crazy to think about the Diamondbacks as a potential playoff team.
Projected Lineup: Ketel Marte-2B, Corbin Carroll-RF, Josh Naylor-1B, Eugenio Suarez-3B, Lourdes Gurriel Jr.-LF, Pavin Smith-DH, Gabriel Moreno-C, Geraldo Perdomo-SS, Jake McCarthy-CF
Projected Rotation: Corbin Burnes, Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, Eduardo Rodriguez, Brandon Pfaadt
Closer: Kevin Ginkel
Projected Record: 82-80

4. San Francisco Giants: Last season, they got Blake Snell on a bargain two-year deal, only for him to pitch well enough to opt out and sing with their dominant archrival (and continue his personal tour through the NL West).  This year's offseason free agent pitching acquisition is 42-year-old Justin Verlander.  How much does the future Hall of Famer have left in the tank, though?  We haven't seen Vintage Verlander since 2022, and last season he only made 17 starts for Houston.

Their other big addition last offseason was Korean center fielder Jung Hoo Lee, who dislocated his shoulder in May and was lost for the season.  That's obviously just bad luck, but that's also how things have been going for the Giants (both San Francisco and New York) in recent seasons.  If everyone can stay healthy and productive, there's a chance the Giants can make life difficult for everyone else.  Are they a playoff team?  No.  Even finishing .500 could be a stretch.  Playing a spoiler, though?  That's absolutely possible.
Projected Lineup: Willy Adames-SS, Wilmer Flores-DH, Matt Chapman-3B, Mike Yastrezmski-RF, Heliot Ramos-LF, Jung Hoo Lee-CF, Patrick Bailey-C, LaMonte Wade Jr.-1B, Tyler Fitzgerald-2B
Projected Rotation: Logan Webb, Robbie Ray, Justin Verlander, Jordan Hicks, Kyle Harrison
Closer: Ryan Walker
Projected Record: 75-87

5. Colorado Rockies: Fortunately for the Rockies, they're not the White Sox or Angels.  Yeah, that's about all I've got.  They might be the worst team in the National League.  (Yes, worse than even the Marlins and Nationals.)  And their best player, Ryan McMahon, will almost certainly be playing for another team by the end of the season.  Frankly, if they can avoid losing 100 games for the second straight season, it'll be a miracle!  I'm not sure they can do that, though.  The talent's simply not there.

Kris Bryant is a shell of his former self.  He simply hasn't been able to stay on the field since coming to Colorado.  In three seasons with the Rockies, he's played in just 159 games (and missed 325).  It isn't Anthony Rendon territory yet, but it's getting there.  This season, Bryant's moving to DH in an attempt to keep him healthy and his bat in the lineup.  They don't just need his bat in the lineup.  They need the Chicago Cubs version of Kris Bryant's bat in the lineup.  Otherwise, what already figures to be a long season will likely feel even longer.
Projected Lineup: Brenton Doyle-CF, Ryan McMahon-3B, Kris Bryant-DH, Nolan Jones-LF, Jacob Stallings-C, Ezequiel Tovar-SS, Michael Toglia-1B, Thairo Estrada-2B, Jordan Beck-RF
Projected Rotation: Kyle Freeland, Ryan Feltner, Austin Gomber, German Marquez, Antonio Senzatela
Closer: Seth Halvorsen
Projected Record: 61-101

Joe's 2025 Bracket (Men)

The record for NCAA Tournament bids by a single conference was 11 by the Big East in 2011.  That record is set to be broken this year.  The SEC has been the best conference in the country all season, and 12 SEC teams are virtual locks.  I think it's likely that they'll get at least one more, although I'd even say that I can see 14 SEC teams making the field.  Because you can't tell me that Texas isn't one of the better bubble teams in contention for those last at-large bids.

I was actually having a debate with someone about Texas today.  His argument that a team that goes 6-12 in conference play doesn't belong in the field.  I countered with "Do you know how good the SEC is?!"  Which is ironic, since I always used to be that person who argued against Power 4 teams getting credit for playing conference games.  In this case, though, it's the eye test.  Texas passes the eye test for me.  Especially compared to teams like Xavier, Ohio State and North Carolina.

So, I would imagine that the committee will have quite a discussion about Texas and those other bubble teams.  Who's in, who's out, who gets sent to Dayton, and who doesn't?  It's a vastly different task than the one the Division III selection committee has.  Starting this season, the D3 committee doesn't actually select the teams.  They just seed and pair them.  The at-large selections come straight from a ranking list.  The top 21 that didn't win their conference tournament (there are 43 D3 conferences) on that list get the at-large bids.  No conversation or debate about it.  Can you even imagine if they ever tried to do that in D1?!

Although, the SEC being so good has probably made the committee's job that much more challenging.  So many SEC teams will be highly seeded that they'll have very little flexibility where to put them.  Auburn and whoever wins the SEC Tournament figure to both get 1-seeds, while the Florida/Tennessee loser and Alabama both figure to be No. 2's (with Kentucky probably looking at a 3).

While three of the No. 1 seeds seem locked up for Auburn, Duke and Houston, I do wonder who'll be No. 1 overall.  Personally, I think it should be Duke.  They aren't just the best team with the best player in the country, they won the ACC Tournament without Cooper Flagg.  And Houston won the Big 12 Tournament.  Auburn, meanwhile, not only didn't win the SEC Tournament, but has lost three of its last four.  Not exactly heading into March Madness with a ton of momentum.

Still, though, I think they'll end up giving Auburn the No. 1 overall seed.  For a couple reasons.  The first is that they won the outright regular season title in the best league.  The other is that, even with their recent skid, the committee will probably be impressed by Auburn's overall body of work.  (Now, I happen to think Auburn is one of the most overrated teams in the country, but I'm not on the committee.  Nor do I have any say.)

Whoever gets that No. 1 overall seed also matters because of where the Regionals are being held.  Auburn obviously wants to be in Atlanta.  But so does Duke.  Only one will get to play there, though.  And, while it's easy enough to just send Duke to Newark instead, the second-closest Regional to Auburn is Indianapolis, which is the only one that's relatively close to Houston.  So, if Auburn ends up going to Indianapolis instead, Houston gets stuck going one direction or the other to Newark or San Francisco. 

For the sake of making everything easier logistically, sending Auburn to Atlanta, Duke to Newark and Houston to Indianapolis works best.  And there would be little argument about getting that top overall seed, either.  Although, the one thing that would set up is the potential all-SEC Final Four matchup between Auburn and the No. 4 overall seed (the Florida/Tennessee winner).

Florida-Tennessee is among the handful of conference championship games still to be played on Sunday.  Bubble teams won't have to stress out watching those games, either, since there aren't any potential bid stealers.  Memphis is the only team playing that I can even see there being any sort at-large discussion about should they not win.  The Atlantic 10 is a one-bid league this year, so it's winner in/loser out there.

Whether it's 12 or 13 (or 14), the SEC will set a record for most NCAA bids by a conference this season.  An effect of the super-sized leagues.  And a down year in the ACC, which only gets three.  As for the other major conferences, I've got the Big Ten with nine total bids, the Big 12 with eight, and the Big East with four.  The Mountain West gets four total, and the last at-large bid goes to Saint Mary's.

SOUTH (Atlanta)
Lexington: 1-Auburn (1) vs. 16-Wofford/Saint Francis, 8-Baylor vs. 9-New Mexico
Seattle: 5-Clemson vs. 12-Colorado State, 4-Wisconsin vs. 13-Lipscomb
Milwaukee: 6-Kansas vs. 11-UC San Diego, 3-Kentucky vs. 14-McNeese
Providence: 7-Illinois vs. 10-Arkansas, 2-St. John's vs. 15-Norfolk State

WEST (San Francisco)
Raleigh: 1-Florida (4) vs. 16-American, 8-Marquette vs. 9-Memphis
Seattle: 5-Louisville vs. 12-Indiana/Texas, 4-Arizona vs. 13-High Point
Denver: 6-UCLA vs. 11-Oklahoma, 3-Texas Tech vs. 14-Montana
Cleveland: 7-Missouri vs. 10-Utah State, 2-Michigan State vs. 15-SIU Edwardsville

EAST (Newark)
Raleigh: 1-Duke (2) vs. 16-Mount St. Mary's/Jackson State, 8-Saint Mary's vs. 9-Mississippi State
Denver: 5-Purdue vs. 12-Grand Canyon, 4-Iowa State vs. 13-Yale
Providence: 6-BYU vs. 11-San Diego State/Vanderbilt, 3-Maryland vs. 14-UNC Wilmington
Lexington: 7-Creighton vs. 10-VCU, 2-Alabama vs. 15-Omaha

MIDWEST (Indianapolis)
Wichita: 1-Houston (3) vs. 16-Bryant, 8-Connecticut vs. 9-Georgia
Wichita: 5-Oregon vs. 12-Liberty, 4-Texas A&M vs. 13-Akron
Milwaukee: 6-Mississippi vs. 11-Drake, 3-Michigan vs. 14-Troy
Cleveland: 7-Gonzaga vs. 10-West Virginia, 2-Tennessee vs. 15-Robert Morris

Joe's 2025 Bracket (Women)

Even without Caitlin Clark or Angel Reese, there will be plenty of star power in this year's NCAA Women's Tournament.  Juju Watkins, Paige Bueckers, Flau'Jae Johnson, Hailey Van Lith to name just a few.  It isn't just the players, either.  We normally go into March Madness with one dominant team that's the overwhelming favorite for the National Championship.  That's not the case this year.  There's at least half a dozen teams who could make a legitimate argument for cutting down the nets in Tampa.

There isn't even a clear cut No. 1 overall seed.  Will it be South Carolina, which is 30-3 and won the SEC Tournament?  Will it be UCLA, which finally got the better of rival USC in the Big Ten Final (that will never not feel weird) and is 30-2 on the season?  It's safe to say that the Gamecocks and Bruins will each get a 1-seed and USC will, too.  But who'll get the fourth one?  UConn or Texas?

It'll be very interesting to see what the committee does with that fourth 1-seed.  They both have a valid argument for it.  UConn has been ranked near the top all season, their only losses have come to ranked opponents, and they crushed South Carolina by 30 on the road.  Texas, meanwhile, has three losses.  Two of them are to South Carolina, including the SEC Championship Game.  And the SEC was a much better conference than the Big East this season.  Will that be taken into account?  (If it goes to Texas, it would be the SEC and Big Ten with two 1-seeds each.)

Ultimately, which one is the 1-seed and which is the 2-seed probably won't matter that much.  They'll be No. 4 and 5 overall, so that means they'll likely be in the same region and set up to face each other in a regional final.  And, since UCLA and USC will both go out West, it's a lock that UConn and Texas will join South Carolina in the Birmingham Regionals.  (I still think this two Regional thing is beyond stupid.)

As for who'll get the No. 1 overall seed, I think that's between UCLA and South Carolina.  It matters, too, because whoever's No. 2 overall will be on the same side of the bracket as USC, which will almost certainly be No. 3 overall.  It's splitting hairs, but I went with UCLA because of the top-to-bottom quality of the Big Ten, as well as the fact that the only team they've lost to all season is USC (twice).  South Carolina, as I noted earlier, got its butt kicked at home by UConn and has a head-to-head loss to UCLA.

The rest of the bracket is a little tricker to figure out.  For all the talk about how good the SEC has been on the men's side this season, the SEC women have been just as good.  So has the Big Ten!  Between the two of them, the supersized leagues could account for more than half of the at-large bids.  And let's not forget how good the ACC is at the top, too.  Duke, NC State and Notre Dame are all looking at either a 2- or 3-seed.

All those SEC and Big Ten teams do create a bit of a problem, though.  Trying to avoid having them play each other before the Sweet 16 is a bit of a challenge.  Never fear, though!  I was able to make it work!  Even with 12 Big Ten teams in the field, I managed to set it up where each Regional has three.  The SEC and ACC weren't as hard since they had fewer teams in my projected field.  Still, though, with more than eight from a conference, you have to put three in a Region somewhere.

In total, I've got 31 teams, including 28 of the 37 at-large bids, from either the Big Ten (12), SEC (10) or ACC (9).  That doesn't leave much for anybody else, and I haven't even talked about the Big 12 and its seven teams yet.  Which leaves a grand total of three at-large bids, one of which goes to a Richmond team that had its 17-game winning streak snapped in the Atlantic 10 Tournament.  Creighton gets another, giving the Big East two teams, both of which are ranked.  So, now there's only one at-large bid remaining.

And that bid goes to...Harvard!  That's right.  Back-to-back years with multiple bids from the Ivy League.  There's even some talk about Princeton being a potential Tourney team.  If all three were to get in, it would be unprecedented.  It's also crazy to think that there could be more teams from the Ivy League than the Big East in the NCAA Tournament.

I think this is the start of a trend that will become a regular thing.  We're gonna see a lot of SEC and Big Ten (and ACC) Tournament teams moving forward.  One of the direct results of 16-team Power 4 conferences.  Will they get 12-13 regularly?  Maybe not.  But 9-10 year after year certainly seems possible.

Anyway, on to the bracket.  Since I gave UCLA the No. 1 overall seed and UConn the last 1-seed, those two regions (Spokane 1 & Birmingham 4) will meet in the Final Four.  The other Final Four matchup pits Birmingham 2 against Spokane 3.  But, the important thing to know there is that if both 1-seeds advance, it would be South Carolina vs. USC.

Moving the Championship Game to Sunday afternoon on ABC did wonders for the women's tournament.  Sure, Caitlin Clark and Iowa getting there in each of the last two years certainly helped.  But I think there's enough star power to keep that momentum going this season.  Especially since this tournament projects to be more wide open than it's been in quite some time.  It should be fun.  And, with that, the 2025 Joe Bracket (Women).  (*-If a conference hasn't finished its tournament yet, I went with the team I think will win in out of who's left for this mock bracket.)

SPOKANE 1
16-UC Davis/Southern at 1-UCLA (1), 8-Utah vs. 9-Richmond
13-Missouri State at 4-North Carolina, 5-Alabama vs. 12-Fairfield
14-Oregon State at 3-Oklahoma, 6-Florida State vs. 11-Washington/Columbia
15-Vermont at 2-TCU, 7-Louisville vs. 10-Oregon

BIRMINGHAM 4
16-Fairleigh Dickinson at 1-Connecticut (4), 8-Indiana vs. 9-Georgia Tech
13-South Florida at 4-Maryland, 5-Tennessee vs. 12-Green Bay
14-Middle Tennessee at 3-Notre Dame, 6-Mississippi vs. 11-Florida Gulf Coast
15-Arkansas State at 2-Texas, 7-Michigan vs. 10-Iowa State

BIRMINGHAM 2
16-Howard/High Point at 1-South Carolina (2), 8-Creighton vs. 9-Illinois
13-Ball State at 4-Ohio State, 5-Kansas State vs. 12-Grand Canyon
14-Charleston at 3-Kentucky, 6-Iowa vs. 11-George Mason
15-Lehigh at 2-Duke, 7-Oklahoma State vs. 10-Harvard

SPOKANE 3
16-UNC Greensboro at 1-USC (3), 8-Cal vs. 9-Mississippi State
13-Montana State at 4-Baylor, 5-Michigan State vs. 12-San Diego State
14-Stephen F. Austin at 3-LSU, 6-West Virginia vs. 11-Nebraska/Virginia Tech
15-Tennessee Tech at 2-NC State, 7-Vanderbilt vs. 10-South Dakota State

MLS Having Buyer's Remorse

With Peacock and ESPN+ getting exclusive conference tournament games this week, it got me thinking about the relationship all of the college conferences and pro leagues have with streaming platforms.  They've all embraced streaming to various degrees.  Even NASCAR will have a package of races exclusively on Amazon this year.  But no one has gone all in yet, with one exception.  MLS.

MLS is now in the third season of a 10-year, $2.5 billion deal with Apple TV that positions the streamer as the league's primary broadcaster.  A handful of games are still available over-the-air on FOX, but, for the most part, they're only available on Apple, and the only way to watch them is to purchase an MLS Season Pass.  Teams aren't allowed to have their own local broadcasts, either.  So, if you want to see your favorite team, you have to either (1) go to the game, (2) buy an MLS Season Pass subscription or (3) only watch the handful of games that are available for free.  It's not exactly a great way to grow the fan base.

While it was hailed as forward-thinking at the time, it might've been a little too ambitious on MLS' part.  Because the league's visibility has all but disappeared!  Casual fans aren't going to spring for an MLS Season Pass subscription on Apple when they have so many other options.  As a result, while the Apple contract was obviously a financial boon for MLS, it hasn't exactly helped the league grow.  Which has frustrated many an MLS general manager.

It's not just GM's who are frustrated.  The streaming-exclusive arrangement has alienated a lot of fans, as well.  And MLS isn't the primary viewing choice for American sports fans.  It isn't even the primary soccer viewing choice for many.  And those who do want to watch MLS games can only do so behind a paywall.  That doesn't bring in more eyes.  It brings in less.

That frustration is really starting to boil over, too.  The Athletic interviewed a high-ranking MLS executive (who remained anonymous), who point blank said that MLS needs to somehow get out of the Apple contract and go back to a model where more games are available by traditional means, with national broadcasts on the major networks and teams able to negotiate their own local broadcast deals.  No one is suggesting they abandon streaming entirely.  The frustration is that, for the most part, it's currently the only option.

For its part, Apple has made an effort to make games somewhat more accessible.  This season, they launched Sunday Night Soccer, a weekly primetime game available to all Apple TV subscribers, whether they have an MLS Season Pass subscription or not.  They've also reached deals with both DirectTV and Xfinity, making games available for the two companies' residential customers.  That should help a little.  But has the damage already been done?

One of the issues the general managers brought up in the Athletic article is how MLS might've overestimated how much of a draw the league is.  The Premier League is available on Peacock.  The Champions League is on Paramount+.  ESPN+ has various other European domestic leagues.  Those are all better leagues than MLS, and they all have decent followings in the U.S., so soccer fans are more likely to shell out for a subscription to one of those services (especially since you don't need to pay for the soccer separately...you have access to the entire Peacock or Paramount+ library.  It's a better deal.)  It's worth noting, too, that Premier League games regularly air on NBC and Champions League games on CBS or their cable channels.  It's easier to watch European soccer than MLS!

All of this is coming at a time when MLS should be seeking maximum exposure.  The U.S. and Canada are co-hosting the World Cup next year (along with Mexico).  Every team in MLS is based in either the United States or Canada.  Beyond that, Lionel Messi is the biggest star in soccer.  He plays in MLS.  Frankly, they should do what the WNBA did last season when they showed Caitilin Clark and Indiana on national TV as often as they could.  Apple wants to keep Messi for themselves, though, so only two Miami games are on FOX this year.  The rest are only on Apple.

I can't totally blame them for that strategy, especially since the number of MLS Season Pass subscriptions rose dramatically when Messi joined Inter Miami.  But, while that's great for Apple, how exactly does it help MLS as a whole?  Again, look at the WNBA.  Ratings were up league-wide even for games that didn't involve Caitlin Clark last season.  Messi is likely providing a similar boon to MLS.  We can't say for sure, though, since Apple doesn't release viewership numbers.  If Inter Miami games were available for free and not restricted behind a paywall, though, you can bet people would be tuning in just to see Messi.

If it were up to them, the MLS executives would love to see the league return to linear television.  For the simple reason that it'd be greater exposure and, likely, more viewers.  Simply put, MLS has a niche following.  It's not an established global brand like the Premier League or Champions League.  And the streaming market is saturated with sports programming.  Both of those things, the executives feel, have limited viewership.  Which is why they feel a move back to a more traditional TV contract is imperative.

Another point of contention is how operating a league on a subscription-based model is vastly different than operating a league on a more traditional broadcast model.  You have to invest in the subscription-based model.  Not just as a fan, but as a league, too.  One general manager feels MLS could be putting in more effort in that area.  Especially since people can't randomly come across an MLS game and end up watching it.  That's affecting their bottom line.

Unfortunately, Apple holds all the cards.  It's unclear if there's an opt-out in the contract, so, for better or worse, they're locked into the long-term deal with Apple.  The secondary contract with FOX is a four-year deal that runs through next season.  Perhaps there's something that can be done there.  While negotiating the new contract, maybe they can increase the number of games available on linear TV.  Because it seems highly unlikely that they'll be able to break with Apple entirely until the contract expires in 2032, and renegotiating wouldn't seem to benefit Apple.

And, who knows?  Maybe by 2032, MLS will see the value that they anticipated from MLS Season Pass and the Apple contract will make a lot more sense then.  Right now, it doesn't.  And that's a problem.  MLS was on the rise.  All that growth has been halted, though, and the league has essentially disappeared from a lot of people's minds.  Which isn't exactly what you want heading into hosting the World Cup.

Is any sort of change imminent?  Probably not.  But it is interesting to see that it didn't take MLS long to regret making Apple its primary broadcast partner.  All of the good things that were promised simply haven't come to fruition...and maybe never will.  But, as they say, buyer beware.  MLS is learning that lesson the hard way.  And can't really do anything about it.

Conference Tournament Qualifying

When the remnants of the Pac-12 joined the ACC, SEC, Big Ten and Big 12 over the summer, I wondered how the remaining, super-sized Power 4 would handle their conference tournaments.  The Big East established the model for a 16-team conference tournament, but the Big Ten and ACC both have 18, and I had no idea how they'd figure it out with those two extra teams.  As it turns out, they didn't.  Instead, those two teams aren't playing in the conference tournament.

The ACC had 15 teams last season and kept the 15-team format for the conference tournament.  As a result, Miami and Boston College didn't qualify.  Neither did NC State, which won the ACC Tournament last season (which is the only reason they got into the NCAA Tournament) and rode that run all the way to the Final Four.  Which was enough to get NC State's coach fired.  What a difference a year makes, huh?!

It's the same thing in the Big Ten.  They added four teams to the league, but only one to the conference tournament.  Nebraska (which lost out on a tiebreaker), Penn State and Washington are the odd ones out.

This isn't the first time major conferences haven't included every team in the tournament.  When the Big East first went to 16, only 12 teams made it to the tournament.  They didn't expand to five days with all 16 members invited until 2009.  And those four years from 2009-12 gave us some of the most glorious Big East Tournaments in history (the UConn-Syracuse six-OT game in 2009, UConn winning five games in five days en route to a National title in 2011)!  The 16-team tournament was such a hit that the other conferences decided to follow suit and have everybody qualify, no matter how many teams they had.

That was always going to be tough with these unwieldy numbers, though.  To play an 18-team tournament, you would need six days, and the bottom four teams would be required to win six games in six days.  The chances of that happening would be slim to none.  The chances of somebody winning five games in five days aren't great, either, but we've at least seen it done, and these leagues are deep enough that it's definitely a realistic possibility.  I'm not saying that it's not possible the 15-18 seed could win six games in six days.  Of course it could be!  I'm just saying it's highly unlikely.

So, I have no issue with teams needing to qualify for their conference tournament.  In fact, I kind of like it!  The bottom feeders can't just coast to the finish knowing they're already in the conference tournament anyway.  And it's not like these teams are in contention for NCAA at-large bids, either.  They don't have the safety net of knowing they'll get to play for an automatic bid regardless.  If they want a shot at it (the auto bid), they need to earn it.

Even there are no playoffs in the European soccer domestic leagues, there is promotion and relegation.  Sometimes, the battles to stay out of the relegation zone are more intriguing than the top of the table.  And they're certainly more interesting than the middle-of-the-pack teams who are in no danger of being relegated, but also know they aren't going to qualify for European play.  That brings value to every game late in the season, especially for the teams towards the bottom of the standings.  Not having everyone make the conference tournament brings some of that to college basketball.

Suddenly, late-season ACC and Big Ten games really matter for those lower-level teams.  Qualifying for the conference tournament is a goal.  Having something to play for can provide extra motivation (for both players and coaches), and it gives fans a reason to care.  Will they still lose in the first round of the conference tournament?  Probably.  But, in what otherwise would very likely be a lost season, there will at least be the satisfaction of getting there.  If they don't, it at least means the season is over.  And, for coaches, it could mean the difference between having a job the following season or not.

Basketball is also, by and large, the only sport where the conference tournament is all-inclusive.  In most other sports, including in the Power 4 leagues, teams have to qualify for the conference tournament.  And this isn't the first time teams have had to qualify for their conference basketball tournament, either.  There's the historical example of the Big East, obviously, but other conferences have done it in basketball for a while.  For example, when the Ivy League finally began holding a conference tournament, only the top four teams made.  That's been the case ever since.

Mid-major leagues have even gotten in on the act.  The MAAC added two teams this season to go from 11 to 13.  One of my favorite things about the MAAC is that the men's and women's tournaments are held concurrently in the same arena.  Having 26 total teams simply wasn't going to work.  So, for the first time, not everybody got to go to the MAAC Tournament.  Only the top 10 on each side did.  The other six teams are staying home.

Of course, there's a reason why the conference basketball tournaments have historically included everybody in the league.  They're a big money-maker (sometimes the biggest money-maker) for the conference, so it makes sense that they'd want to have everyone involved.  More teams mean more games.  More games mean more fans.  More fans mean more revenue (from tickets and everything else).  It's just smart business.

But conference tournaments should also mean something, which is where making teams qualify comes in.  I'm not saying having every team play in the conference tournament is bad.  If the number is feasible, conferences should absolutely do it!  The Big Ten and ACC have gotten to a number that isn't feasible, though, so they've decided to make teams earn their spot in the conference tournament.  Which I also like.

Not having those lowest-seeded teams won't really impact the quality of conference tournaments.  The SEC and Big Ten are both incredibly deep.  They're both looking at a double-digit number of conference teams making the NCAA Tournament.  Those conference tournaments will be outstanding, and there are definitely some teams that can make a run that will improve their NCAA seeding (or even get them into the Tournament altogether).  The bottom teams can't make that Cinderella run now.  But they also can't screw up somebody else's chances by upsetting them in the early rounds.

What I'm saying here, ultimately, is that both formats work.  There will always be something great about every team from the conference coming together in one place to determine a champion.  But there's also something about making teams earn their way there.  Especially when you have too many teams to do it the other way.  

NHL Trade Deadline Aftermath

The NHL trade deadline has come and gone, and some teams were definitely more active than others.  We saw some who clearly have their sights set on a Stanley Cup run and acted like it.  There are other contenders who made some moves that are questionable at best.  Some teams that became surprise sellers.  And some who limited their action, preferring to stand pat with the team they've got, clearly feeling that it's already good enough.

As with any trade deadline, there were teams that emerged as definite winners and some who would have to be considered losers.  Two teams in particular--the Panthers and Stars--immediately became Stanley Cup favorites after their trade deadline activity.  They aren't the only ones who greatly improved their chances, though.  Let's take a look at the trade deadline winners and losers, starting with the winners.

Florida Panthers: Brad Marchand leaving Boston after 16 seasons was the headliner, but that was far from the only move the defending champions made.  Marchand is hurt and might not be available until the playoffs.  That was the whole point of getting him, though.  They want to defend their title and think Marchand can help them with that.  As for who can help them in the regular season, they also added Seth Jones and Nico Sturm and upgraded their backup goalie by bringing in Vitek Vanecek.

Dallas Stars: Mikko Rantanen has had a crazy few weeks!  If you count Finland, the Stars are his fourth team in a little over a month.  They wouldn't do the deal unless he signed an extension, and he ended up agreeing for eight years.  The Central Division is loaded at the top, but Dallas may have just become the favorite to come out of not just the Central, but the entire West.  Especially when you consider they'd already added Mikael Granlund and Cody Ceci before the 4 Nations break.

Colorado Avalanche: Rantanen's odyssey began in Colorado, where he'd played his entire career until a late January trade to Carolina.  The Avalanche got Martin Necas in return, which was a pretty even swap.  They weren't done, though.  Colorado added Jimmy Vesey and Ryan Lindgren from the Rangers, Charlie Coyle from Boston and Erik Johnson from Philadelphia.  Overall, it was a solid haul.

Toronto Maple Leafs: While it seems somewhat silly to declare the Maple Leafs "winners" at the deadline ahead of their inevitable seven-game first-round loss, they did address their depth, which is usually the thing that catches up with them in the playoffs.  Toronto's top line (Matthew, Marner, Nylander) is among the absolute best in the business.  At the deadline, they improved their third forward line (Scott Laughton) and their third defense pair (Brandon Carlo).

Winnipeg Jets: A third team in the same division?!  Yes!  I told you the Central was hyper-competitive.  The Jets are in the mix for the President's Trophy and have arguably the best goalie in the NHL in Connor Hellebuyck, but this is a franchise that has never made the Conference Final and would desperately like to change that.  They didn't need to do much, so they didn't go crazy.  But they did get deeper in better, bringing in Luke Schenn from Pittsburgh and Brandon Tanev from Seattle.

There were plenty of losers at the deadline too, of course.  And I'm not just talking about the teams like Pittsburgh, Nashville and San Jose who entered the deadline as obvious sellers and did just that, sending most of their top veteran names to contenders.  Or teams like the Rangers, who were in both buy and sell mode.  No, I'm referring to the teams who saw their chances at winning the Cup go down because they saw other teams around them get better.

Boston Bruins: OK, I'll start with one team that was a seller.  The Bruins' season has been going downhill, and they currently find themselves on the outside looking in at the Eastern Conference playoff race.  So, somewhere along the line, they decided to give up on making the playoffs and become sellers.  It wasn't just Brad Marchand, their captain.  It was also Charlie Coyle and Justin Brazeau.

Carolina Hurricanes: They seemingly had made the first big move with the Rantanen trade.  That lasted all of a month.  Now, the Hurricanes don't have Martin Necas or Mikko Rantanen.  And they failed to make any other big moves, as well.  Maybe Carolina didn't feel that was necessary.  Regardless, by trading Rantanen a month after getting him (with the 4 Nations taking up half that time), they essentially lost Necas for nothing.

New Jersey Devils: Granted, the Jack Hughes injury was unforeseen, so it's a little unfair to put them on this list as a result.  But, the timing of it sure put the Devils in a bind.  Because they lost their best offensive player for the season and didn't really replace him.  They're already without their goalie, too.  While it was once a crazy thought, I can see the Devils slipping out of playoff position entirely after firmly residing in the Metropolitan Division's top three for months.

Minnesota Wild: It's not that the Wild had a bad deadline per se.  It's just that the Stars, Jets and Avalanche all got better.  And those three teams are all in Minnesota's division!  To get to the Conference Final, the Wild will need to go through two of them.  That's the only reason I consider Minnesota to be deadline "losers."  It's unfair, especially because the Wild are still really good.  They're just not as good as Dallas, Winnipeg or Colorado.

Tampa Bay Lightning: Let's start with the most exciting part of the entire trade deadline.  Yanni Gourde is back in Tampa!  That's the extent of what the Lightning did, though, getting Gourde and Oliver Bjorkstrand from Seattle.  Which puts them in a similar situation as Minnesota.  The Lightning got marginally better.  Florida and Toronto got much better.  Now, Tampa Bay has more than enough talent where it might not matter.  But, then again, it might.

Of course, the Stanley Cup Playoffs are always a crapshoot and trade deadline moves are only one piece of the puzzle.  Some teams definitely improved their chances of lifting the Cup at the deadline, though.  And others didn't.  Ultimately, though, only one team will get the opportunity to do that.  Whatever team that is will be the real winners, whether they "won" the deadline or not.