The Race For 2036

Prior to the Paris Games, we didn't even know where the Winter Olympics in 2030 would be held.  The French Alps were finally awarded those Games, with only five and a half years to prepare.  The 2034 Winter Olympics were awarded to Salt Lake City at the same time, so we suddenly just like that knew the Olympic hosts for the next decade.  And the jockeying has already begun for the next available Olympics in 2036, where some heavy hitters look to be entering the race.

The Olympics have never been held in the Middle East (or any Arab country).  That's something the IOC would love to change.  By 2036, the World Cup will have been held in the Middle East twice--2022 in Qatar, 2034 in Saudi Arabia.  Doha has been very transparent about its desire to host the Olympics and has apparently already had discussions with the IOC about 2036.  Riyadh is also interested, although they haven't officially declared themselves a candidate yet.

Of course, while Qatar and Saudi Arabia both have money out the wazoo and can easily handle the infrastructure, the issue that plagues any possible Middle Eastern bid hasn't gone away.  It's incredibly hot there in the middle of the summer.  That's why the 2022 World Cup was moved to the winter and the 2019 Track & Field World Championships in Doha were held in October--and even then, they had to hold events at midnight to combat the heat.  At both events, they used a cooling system inside the stadium.  For the limited number of stadiums used in the World Cup, that worked.  There are a lot more venues used at an Olympics, though!

Holding the Track & Field World Championships later in the year didn't make too much of a difference since all it did was extend the season a few weeks, but we saw how disruptive moving the 2022 World Cup was.  Now think about what kind of an impact moving the Olympics, with its hours of TV coverage across the world, to September or October would be!  And not just for the broadcasters, but for all the athletes and professional leagues, as well.  There's a reason why they block off dates in July and August for the Olympics--when the heat in the Middle East is unbearable!

It does seem inevitable that Doha will eventually get to host an Olympics.  But they have to figure all of that stuff out first.  You either do it in the middle of the summer, when conditions are borderline unsafe for athletes and spectators, or move the Olympics later in the year, which could cause a problem with international broadcasters since it would conflict with other events.

Another place that the Olympics have never been is India, the most populous country on Earth.  Despite its population, India is nowhere near as successful a sporting nation as China or the United States, mainly because of economic reasons.  They've made more of a financial investment in sports, though, and have specifically targeted hosting major events.  Even though a city hasn't been selected, the Indian Olympic Association has submitted a letter of intent to the IOC's Future Host Commission expressing its interest in 2036.

An Olympics in Africa is another long-time IOC goal.  The 2026 Youth Olympics will be held in Dakar, Senegal.  If they're a success, it could be a precursor to the main event taking place on African soil for the first time.  The IOC met with officials from South Africa last week and expressed confidence in the country's ability to stage an Olympics.  That's especially important since the IOC clearly wants to have an Olympics in Africa, so it's really just finding the right site (and South Africa is one of the few countries that could handle the financial and logistical requirements).

Then there's serial Olympic bidder Istanbul.  They've taken a few Games off, having last bid for 2020, but are back in the running for 2036.  Istanbul wants to host the Olympics.  That's why they keep bidding.  You'd have to think their persistence will eventually be rewarded, as it should be.  Especially since Istanbul would be that first Middle Eastern/Arab city to host, but can do it within the traditional window.  Not to mention the fact that it's located in both Europe AND Asia, a cool feature that no other major city in the world can claim!

Other countries that have expressed interest in 2036 include Indonesia, which would hold the Olympics throughout the country, but centered in the new capital city.  Santiago, Chile, meanwhile, got the IOC's seal of approval after successfully hosting the 2023 Pan Am Games.  The President has given the Chilean Ministry of Sport the green light, so a bid from Santiago seems to be a go, as well.

What's notable, however, is that 2036 will be 12 years since the Paris Games.  There's never been longer than a 12-year gap between Summer Olympics in Europe.  Which would lead you to believe that none of those cities are likely for 2036, when it would be Europe's "turn."  There's no formal rotation among the continents, but the IOC is still a heavily European-based organization, so you'd have to think they wouldn't want to go longer than that...especially with 2028 and 2032 already going to North America and Australia.

While no European city other than Istanbul has officially declared its candidacy, there are several that have expressed interest.  Some of the potential bidders have already shifted their focus to 2040, which might be an indication that the IOC is leaning towards Doha.  Still, I don't think a European host in 2036 is completely out of the question.  Especially because one city in particular, an Olympic host in waiting, is still in the mix.  Budapest.

Budapest's bid for 2024 was torpedoed by a local referendum, and another referendum is scheduled for the 2036 bid.  So, it may fizzle out before even really getting off the ground.  But, assuming the citizens of Budapest vote "Yes" and the bid moves forward, it would instantly be considered the favorite.  Budapest has a great track record after hosting wonderful World Championships in both aquatics (twice) and track & field in recent years, and has more major events on the horizon.  The city is ready and plenty capable of hosting an Olympics.  It has been for a while.

This will be the second Summer Olympics awarded under the IOC's new bid process with the Host City Commission instead of a traditional competition between cities.  The first was the 2032 Games going to Brisbane, with some interested parties surprised by how quickly the entire process took.  Those Olympics were awarded on the eve of the Tokyo Games--a full 11 years in advance.  That's the timeline that potential hosts are working with now, which is why we're already talking about hosts for an Olympics that's 12 years away.

Some have suggested that Doha's already a done deal and the IOC is just waiting to announce it until after the Presidential election in March.  That very well may be the case.  Or the new IOC President may want to have a say on where the final Olympics of their tenure will take place (assuming the new President is reelected for a second four-year term after their initial eight-year term).  Or maybe we'll see the bidding process entirely changed once again. 

Because the current bidding process isn't exactly the most transparent.  The Future Host Commission was set up in response to the lack of candidates that had plagued the IOC for several host city elections in a row, but it's incredibly secretive, which has made it the subject of a lot of criticism.  So, I wouldn't be surprised if there are changes after a few unanimous "elections" of the IOC's hand-picked choice.  Especially if the 2036 Olympics end up going to Doha shortly after the Presidential election.

Either way, there are several capable options that appear willing to host the 2036 Olympics.  And that's most certainly a good thing.  Even though it seems so far ahead to even be thinking about the 2036 Games, I wouldn't be surprised if a host city announcement isn't that far off.  If I had to guess, it'll be just before the start of 2026 Winter Olympics in Italy...which are only 14 months away.