Baseball's Best Rookies, 2024

MLB awards season gets underway with the Rookies of the Year, and it really is a fascinating way to start.  Because, unlike the MVPs and Cy Youngs, all four of which could be unanimous, there really is a question of who'll win in both leagues.  And who should.  So, we're getting the only two player awards where there'll actually be any sort of debate right off the bat.

In the AL, we've got two Yankees and the Orioles' Colton Cowser.  The last time two Yankees were Rookie of the Year finalists together, Miguel Andujar and Gleyber Torres canceled each other out and Shohei Ohtani ended up winning by more than he probably should have (I said this then and I'll say it again now, you can't hold the fact that Ohtani's a freak of nature also pitches against guys who don't).  Will the same thing happen again?  Will Colton Cowser benefit from a split vote between Luis Gil and Austin Wells?

Meanwhile, in the NL, it's two guys named Jackson and Paul Skenes, the Pirates sensation who started the All*Star Game, but also wasn't called up until May.  Will that be held against him?  Or was Skenes' body of work so much better than the two Jacksons that it won't matter?

It was a similar situation in 2014, when it was Jacob deGrom vs. Billy Hamilton.  Back then, it was deGrom who had been called up in May while Hamilton was with the Reds on Opening Day.  My choice would've been Hamilton, and my argument was that the fact he was the Opening Day center fielder and on the roster all season wasn't being considered enough.  The voters felt differently and deGrom ended up winning NL Rookie of the Year that season.

So, with that in mind, you'd think my choice would be Jackson Merrill.  And he's actually got a pretty strong argument.  Merrill was an infielder until the end of Spring Training, when the Padres decided that he'd be their Opening Day center fielder.  He ended up making the All*Star team, and he really was a stabilizing force in that San Diego lineup.  Without Merrill in center field, the Padres may not have been a playoff team, let alone one that nearly beat the Dodgers in the Division Series!

However, what Paul Skenes did this season was historic.  He isn't just a finalist for Rookie of the Year.  He's a finalist for the Cy Young and was First Team All-MLB.  Skenes came in with ridiculously high expectations as the No. 1 overall pick in 2023, was called up to the Majors less than a year after being drafted, and lived up to all the hype!  His starts became must-watch events.  He was the guy.  He was the show.  And, as impressive as his numbers were, just imagine how much better they would've been had he played the entire season!

The third National League finalist is the Brewers' Jackson Chourio.  His third-place finish in this race is well-deserved.  Chourio's second half was especially spectacular.  It's also crazy to think that this guy is only 20 years old.  He was the youngest player in the Majors this season.  He sure didn't look like it!  Chourio, in fact, became the youngest player ever with 20 home runs and 20 stolen bases in a season.

This is a two-horse race between Skenes and Merrill, though.  In any other year, it wouldn't be close.  They'd both win going away.  Unfortunately (or fortunately), this year we've got two Rookie of the Year-caliber performances in the National League.  You really couldn't go wrong with either one.  I give the slight edge to Skenes, though.  How can a rookie season that was so talked about not be recognized with the Rookie of the Year award?  So, I'm going: 1. Skenes, 2. Merrill, 3. Chourio.

For a while, it looked like Skenes wouldn't be the only rookie pitcher starting the All*Star Game.  Because Luis Gil's first half was incredible!  And the craziest thing about it is that he was sent down during Spring Training!  He only made the team as the fifth starter because of Gerrit Cole's injury.  Once he was in the rotation, they couldn't take him out!  Gil ended up being the Yankees' most reliable starter behind Cole, and he capped it off with a World Series start.

Let's not forget how important Austin Wells was to the Yankees' success, either.  For most of the second half, he was hitting in the cleanup spot behind Soto and Judge.  They had a rookie catcher batting behind the 1-2 punch who are both MVP finalists.  And they kept him there because he was the guy producing in that spot.  He started the season in a platoon with Jose Trevino.  It didn't take long for Wells to become the primary catcher.  As a rookie.  While also hitting cleanup.  On a team that made the World Series.

We could easily see the Yankees go 1-2 here, but I think it's more likely the Rookie of the Year voting will mirror the MVP voting and the Yankees will finish 1-3.  Because Colton Cowser's rookie season can't be discounted.  He hit 24 home runs and was a Gold Glove finalist in left field.  Just add Cowser's name to that list of talented young Orioles regulars.

And, while he's not a finalist, there's a fourth AL East rookie who very could've been.  Boston's Ceddanne Rafaela was literally everywhere!  He started games at five different positions, playing mainly center field and shortstop.  He also hit in six different lineup spots, although he mostly batted ninth.  Rafaela ended up driving in 75 runs, the most by AL rookies.  I have no issue with the three finalists who finished above him in the voting.  Rafaela had quite a rookie year, though!

Ultimately, though, I think Gil's body of work and consistency give him the edge.  He made 29 starts, finished 15-7, held opponents to a .189 average and struck out 171 hitters in 151.2 innings.  Gil becomes the first Yankee to win Rookie of the Year honors since Aaron Judge in 2017.  I've got Cowser at No. 2 and, while this may be surprising, Rafaela gets my third-place vote over Wells.  (I also gave A's closer Mason Miller some serious consideration.)

A pitcher hasn't won Rookie of the Year since Devin Williams in 2020.  A starter hasn't won it since Detroit's Michael Fulmer in 2016.  Expect both of those stats to change.  We could even see pitchers sweep Rookie of the Year honors for the first time since 2011.  And when's the last time two starting pitchers were the Rookies of the Year in the same season, you ask?  You have to go back to the last time the Dodgers played the Yankees in the World Series.  Dave Righetti and the late Fernando Valenzuela in 1981.