Rest vs Rust

We're only three years into the current MLB playoff format with six teams per league and the top two division winners receiving first-round byes.  Which is way too small of a sample size to draw any sort of conclusions.  However, there's definitely a noticeable trend that can't be ignored.  Especially in the National League, it isn't the top two teams who've had the advantage.  It's the wild cards.

In 2022, the first year of the 12-team playoffs, the Dodgers won 111 games and the Braves won 101.  Neither one got out of the Division Series.  The NLCS was the sixth-seeded Phillies against the fifth-seeded Padres.  Last season, the Braves and Dodgers were again the top two seeds, with 104 and 100 wins, respectively.  In the Division Series, they won a combined one game.  The NLCS was again two wild cards, the sixth-seeded Diamondbacks and the fourth-seeded Phillies.

This season, the Phillies won the NL East and got the bye, only to lose the Division Series...to the sixth-seeded Mets.  The Mets are the third consecutive 6-seed to reach the NLCS.  Just as remarkably, if the Padres beat the Dodgers in Game 5, the three NLCS during that span will have featured six wild card teams and zero division winners.  Should the Dodgers lose, the top two seeds will be a combined 0-6 in the Division Series.  So much for having the advantage.

The division winners have fared slightly better in the American League.  In the first two years of this format, three of the four ALCS participants have been division winners, and the one that wasn't (last year's Rangers) tied for the division title, but lost the tiebreaker.  Texas was still a wild card team, though, and the Rangers still won the pennant.  Which means that three of the four teams to play in the last two World Series were wild cards.

All of this once again brings up the debate that surfaces at this time every year: Rest vs. Rust.  And it's a legitimate one.  Because, as we've seen, winning your division and earning the bye doesn't mean much if you end up losing in the playoffs...especially to a team that you're "better than."  Those wild card teams, meanwhile, have nothing to lose and are playing with house money.  More significantly, they've been hot (which may be what got them into the playoffs in the first place) and they've been playing instead of sitting around.

On the surface, it seems like a no-brainer.  Of course you want to win the division, get a top-two seed and not have to worry about playing an extra best-of-three round just to get to the Division Series.  Plus, it lets you set up your pitching, guys who might be banged up get a few days off, you get to stay at home, etc.  Meanwhile, your Division Series opponent has to use at least its top two starters before traveling to your ballpark for Game 1 with at most two days between the end of the Wild Card Series and the start of the Division Series.

However, five days is also a lot of time to sit around.  Especially when you're in such a routine of playing virtually every day for the previous six months.  Now, you've just got to wait.  Teams have tried various things to stay loose and ready.  The most common approach seems to be open workouts or simulated games.  Those may help the players stay somewhat fresh, but they don't come anywhere close to the atmosphere or intensity of a playoff game.  That's something you can't replicate.  And simulated games are just that.  Simulated.

There's also the question of whether being able to line up your pitching is necessarily a good thing.  Depending on when a pitcher's last start of the regular season is, they're going an extended period without facing hitters in a live game situation.  It's similar to figuring out your rotation after the All*Star Break so that everybody gets roughly the same number of days between starts.  But, inevitably, just like after the All*Star Break, at least one pitcher's gonna have an extended break, which could be good...or could be the exact opposite. 

Some pitchers have their routine and like going out there every fifth day.  Anything to mess with that could impact their performance.  We saw that with Gerrit Cole in Game 1 against the Royals.  It doesn't just apply to starters, either.  How often have we seen a reliever who hasn't pitched in a while come into a game and have absolutely no control?

So, there are valid points on each side of the rest vs. rust argument.  It really is simply a matter of preference.  Although, I still think teams would much rather get the bye and have those extra few days to get ready for the Division Series.  And I agree that it's way too early to come to a consensus one way or the other in the rest vs. rust debate.  Especially because something just as significant has been in play in the National League, and I don't think enough people have acknowledged it.

Every National League Division Series since 2022 (the first year of this format) has pitted two teams from the same division against each other.  The Dodgers lost to NL West rivals San Diego (2022) and Arizona (2023), and are playing the Padres again this year.  The Phillies, meanwhile, beat the Braves twice before losing to the Mets this season.  (Side note: the NL Central hasn't won a playoff series since the Cardinals in 2019.)

With division rivals brings familiarity.  You play your division foes more than anybody else, so they know you better than anybody.  That, I think, has played a huge factor in these NLDS upsets over the past three seasons.  The division winner might be the "better" team (and certainly was over the course of 162 games), but that doesn't matter nearly as much when you're facing an opponent that you see so often.  Especially in a best-of-five series where all they need to do is win one of those first two road games to suddenly put the division champion on the ropes.

It's also important to note the parity around baseball over the past several years.  There wasn't a single 100-win team in the Majors this season, and Arizona missed the playoffs despite finishing 89-73.  So, there really isn't that much separating those top two seeds in each league with the teams seeded 3-6.  That, frankly, has just as much to do with recent Division Series results as anything else.  Who cares if you're the best team over 162 games?  You need to have the best team for a month-long tournament.

As long as MLB continues with the 12-team playoff format, the rest vs. rust debate will continue.  Especially if the top two seeds keep losing in the Division Series.  But trying to read into it is foolish.  Because there are a number of possible factors at play.  And, regardless, they're not changing it anytime soon (unless they add more teams), so those higher-seeded teams need to figure it out.  Once they do, the debate will stop.