Saturday, October 5, 2024

2024-25 NHL, Part II (West)

We already knew before last season that Connor McDavid is the best player in the NHL.  It isn't even particularly close.  Then last season, he won the Conn Smythe Trophy despite the fact that Edmonton lost the Stanley Cup Final (if we're being honest, it probably should've been Bobrovsky).  However, the Oilers losing meant that McDavid didn't do what so many others before him have done...captain his team to the Cup.  Until he does that, he's not in the same category as Crosby and Ovechkin.  When and if he does, though, he's right up there with Gretzky and Messier as true Edmonton legends.

The chances of that happening are actually pretty good.  Edmonton, Vancouver and Toronto are really the only three teams capable of ending Canada's 31-year Stanley Cup drought.  And the Oilers are among the handful of Western Conference teams that look like legitimate Cup contenders.  In fact, I only count five: Edmonton, Vancouver, Vegas, Colorado and Dallas.

Unlike in the East, where there's parity at the top and only three truly "bad' teams (Columbus, Montreal and Ottawa), the West only has those five elite teams and a whole bunch at the bottom.  San Jose, Anaheim, Chicago and Utah likely won't come anywhere near the playoffs.  Although, the Sharks now have Macklin Celebrini, who they hope will turn in a rookie season similar to Connor Bedard's.  So, there may be hope for both the Sharks and Blackhawks.

With only a handful of teams at the top and a handful at the bottom, that makes for a very crowded middle in the Western Conference.  Which should lead to a pretty intense battle for the remaining playoff spots.  The Kings, Predators and Jets probably have the advantage for those, but I'm not counting out Minnesota or Seattle.  And I really have no idea what to expect from St. Louis or Calgary!  So, like I said, the competition in the middle of the Western Conference should be pretty good.

Talent-wise, the Colorado Avalanche are right there among the best teams in the entire league.  Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar are truly elite.  If they can get their captain Gabriel Landeskog back after missing pretty much all of last season with an injury, that just makes them that much deeper.  A full-strength Avalanche team will be very difficult to beat.  Even if they aren't at full strength, it's not exactly an easy task.

Should the Avalanche stumble at all, the Dallas Stars are right there waiting to take advantage.  They've got nearly as much talent as Colorado and a top-notch goalie in Jake Oettinger.  Speaking of top-notch goalies, there are few better than Connor Hellebuyck of the Winnipeg Jets.  It's been well-established that you can win in the playoffs simply by riding a hot goalie.  Which is why I'm not gonna count the Jets out should they get to the playoffs.  And, while they're not at Dallas or Colorado's level, they're certainly one of the eight best teams in the West.

That's also why I can't count out the Nashville Predators, either.  The Predators have built a pretty solid group in front of Juuse Saros, bringing in Stanley Cup champions Jonathan Marchessault and Steven Stamkos to join the likes of Roman Josi, Filip Forsberg and Ryan O'Reilly.  Nashville definitely looks like a sleeper team.

Then there's the Minnesota Wild.  The Wild still have their big guns, so they won't exactly surprise anybody.  And they've got a Hall of Fame goalie in Marc-Andre Fleury, who's at the tail end of his career, but still.  The St. Louis Blues, meanwhile, simply don't have enough pieces to keep pace with the top teams in the Central Division.  That's not to say the Blues can't contend for a playoff spot since they absolutely can.  It's just that they need a lot of things to go right and have some things go wrong for everybody else in order to make that happen.

Year 2 with Connor Bedard should be much better for the Chicago Blackhawks than Year 1 was.  Slowly but surely, they're building a competent team again.  And not only are they no longer the worst team in Chicago (congratulations, White Sox), they aren't the worst team in the division anymore, either.  That honor belongs to the Utah Hockey Club.  The artists formerly known as the Arizona Coyotes should benefit from knowing that their franchise finally has some stability.  Hopefully once the novelty wears off, they give the people of Salt Lake City a reason to keep coming to games.

Your best bet to see a Canadian team finally lift the Cup for the first time since 1993 is in the Pacific Division.  I'd even argue that the two best teams in that division come from Western Canada.  We'll start with the obvious one, the defending Western Conference champion Edmonton Oilers.  That ridiculous collection of talent in Edmonton (they're so much more than just McDavid and Draisaitl) finally broke through and got to the Final last season.  Can they pull a Panthers and follow up a Final loss with a Final win?

Not if the Vancouver Canucks have anything to say about it.  Vancouver's starting six (top line, top defensive pair, goalie) ranks among the very best in the game.  Their depth is the question, which is why I have them slightly below the Oilers in the Pacific.  Ranking slightly below the Canucks are the Vegas Golden Knights.  They've only missed the playoffs once in franchise history.  Don't expect them to miss this season.  The Knights are like Nashville in that they simply have too much talent on the roster.

After that, it drops off considerably.  I'd have to say the next-most-likely Pacific Division team to make the playoffs is the Los Angeles Kings.  The Kings made a big-time upgrade in goal, swapping Cam Talbot for Cup winner Darcy Kuemper.  While they aren't one of the top teams in the West by any means, the Kings could easily do what Kuemper's team last season (Washington) did and sneak into the playoffs.

It's crazy to think that the Seattle Kraken are in their fourth season already, isn't it?  I'd say Seattle has an outside shot at the playoffs, but wouldn't be considered a favorite to get there.  The Kraken didn't make it last year and didn't really do much in the offseason to increase their chances of making it this season.  Neither did the Calgary Flames, who'll be feeling the loss of Johnny Gaudreau.  Gaudreau had obviously left the Flames and was playing for Columbus, but he spent most of his career in Calgary, so you know they're impacted just as much.  Those should be two emotional games when the Flames play the Blue Jackets.

Outside of the Kings, hockey in California hasn't been great for the past few seasons.  Thing shouldn't be much different in 2024-25.  The San Jose Sharks were terrible last season, but made improvements and are slightly less bad.  I can't really say the same for the Anaheim Ducks, though.  While I think Columbus and Utah are probably the two worst teams in the league, Anaheim isn't too far ahead.  The Ducks are closer to finishing with the fewest points in the NHL than they are to making the playoffs.

So, while the competition in the middle of the West for the three remaining playoff berths should be fierce, I do think Nashville and Winnipeg stand out as favorites for two of them.  The last spot should come down to LA and Minnesota.  I'm giving the edge ever so slightly to the Kings, but wouldn't be surprised at all to see five playoff teams out of the Central Division.

As hesitant as I am to make a preseason Stanley Cup pick, I suppose it's appropriate that I make one.  In the East, I think the Rangers use the memory of getting so close last year as motivation.  In the West, I'm going with Colorado.  A healthy Avalanche team is arguably the best in hockey.  Which is why they're getting the nod as my Stanley Cup pick.

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