NFL 2024 (Week 5)

How bad have my picks been the last three weeks?  So bad that I've already been eliminated from my Survival league.  I was eliminated in Week 4 in a three strikes league...and I won in Week 1!  So, basically what I'm saying is that I have no idea what's going on the NFL!  Maybe this week I can finally start to get back on track after three subpar weeks in a row.  Although, if Thursday night is any indication, maybe not.

Thursday Night: Tampa Bay (Loss)

Jets (2-2) vs Vikings (4-0): Minnesota-The fans in London are actually treated with a pretty good matchup for their first game of the year.  I'm ready to adjust my take on both of these teams.  Minnesota's one of two remaining undefeated teams, and their wins have been impressive, too.  The Jets, meanwhile, haven't been what I expected either.  I thought they would be much better than they've looked so far.  Of course, there's still time.  And, knowing my luck, they're gonna blow the Vikings out.

Panthers (1-3) at Bears (2-2): Chicago-Swapping the No. 1 pick in 2023 has certainly worked out better for the Bears than the Panthers.  Bryce Young has been benched, and the Panthers' offense has looked much better in two games under Andy Dalton.  Chicago, meanwhile, actually has an offense now, and it has made quite a difference.  The Bears beat the Rams last week and are also better than the Panthers, so expect them to make it two in a row.

Ravens (2-2) at Bengals (1-3): Baltimore-It's been a tough go of it so far for everybody in the AFC North except for the Steelers.  Although, both the Ravens and Bengals got a win last week when they really needed one.  Baltimore's was impressive, too.  They dominated the Bills from start to finish on Monday night.  A win here, and they're right back on track.  That would also pretty much sink Cincinnati, so expect the Bengals to come out like their season depends on it.

Dolphins (1-3) at Patriots (1-3): New England-Miami hasn't had a lead through four games this season.  The Dolphins' only win came on a last-second field goal against Jacksonville.  When they gave that stat at the end of the game on Monday, I was just like "Wow!"  It really sums up Miami's season in a nutshell, too.  When Brady was in New England, they were the team that always gave the Patriots trouble.  Now, it's a chance for the Patriots to extend the Dolphins' streak to five games without a lead.

Browns (1-3) at Commanders (3-1): Washington-Are the Commanders actually good?!  It looks like they've finally got a keeper at quarterback in Chase Daniels, who's the clear Rookie of the Year frontrunner (if not an MVP candidate) through the first quarter of the season.  And playing Washington is suddenly no longer a guaranteed win.  In fact, the Commanders currently lead the NFC East.  Cleveland badly needs a win, but I'm not sure they get it here.

Colts (2-2) at Jaguars (0-4): Indianapolis-Remember the middle of last season when we were all talking about how good Jacksonville was?  It seems like such a long time ago, doesn't it?  Now we're back to the Jaguars of old, sitting at 0-4 as the only winless team in the league.  Can they get their first win of the year against Indianapolis?  Or will the Colts follow up their victory over the Steelers with a division win?

Bills (3-1) at Texans (3-1): Buffalo-Buffalo losing wasn't the shocking thing last week.  They were playing a good Ravens team that needed a win badly.  It's how they were beaten so soundly that was the surprise.  This week, they've got another road game against a division winner from last season.  How will they bounce back?  I don't see Josh Allen having two bad games in a row, so probably just fine.

Raiders (2-2) at Broncos (2-2): Denver-When Sean Payton took over in Denver, he said to give it time.  That patience is finally being rewarded.  And the Broncos' defense is really the reason why.  In their last three games, they've given up a total of 29 points.  Sure, their offense hasn't been great, only scoring 39 in those same three games.  But, they've won two of them.  Can they make it three against their hated rivals from Las Vegas?

Cardinals (1-3) at 49ers (2-2): San Francisco-You put the 49ers back in their own stadium, and suddenly they look like the 49ers again.  They've played two home games this season, won them both, and scored over 30 points each time.  Arizona, meanwhile, gave up 42 last week against Washington.  This is a game San Francisco should win.

Packers (2-2) at Rams (1-3): Green Bay-Is there a team in the NFC that needs a win more than the Rams?  They're a very confusing team, too.  Because they almost (and should've) won their opener in Detroit, then got their butts kicked in Arizona, then beat San Francisco before scoring just 18 points in Chicago.  Are they good or not?  With the Packers, we know what we're getting.  Even last week, they easily could've won that game had a couple things gone their way.  If those things do go their way this week, I can see them pulling it out.

Giants (1-3) at Seahawks (3-1): Seattle-Last Monday, the Seahawks suffered their first loss of the season, as Detroit emphatically made a statement and scored seemingly at will on Seattle's defense.  The ease with which the Lions did it was surprising for sure.  The good news for the Seahawks is that this week they play the Giants.  Which means they'll have plenty of opportunity to get back into their offensive groove.

Cowboys (2-2) at Steelers (3-1): Dallas-Somehow, Dallas and Pittsburgh haven't met in a regular season primetime game since 1980.  They've obviously played in a Super Bowl, and I know they don't play in the regular season that often.  But, you'd figure that's exactly why they'd get a Monday or Sunday night game.  Because they're two of the more popular teams in the league and they don't play each other often.  Anyway, the result of this game really depends on which Cowboys team shows up.  It's also weird how Dallas is 2-0 on the road and 0-2 at home.  Since this one's on the road, I'm going with the Week 1 & 4 Cowboys, not the Week 2 & 3 Cowboys.

Saints (2-2) at Chiefs (4-0): Kansas City-Seven, one, five and seven.  Those are the margins of victory in each of Kansas City's four games this season.  The most important number, though, is 4-0.  They haven't played their best football yet, and they're still one of two undefeated teams left.  Just imagine when they get rolling!  Now, they'll probably have a bad game in them at some point.  I don't think it'll be this week, though.

This Week: 0-1
Last Week: 7-9
Overall: 34-31

2024-25 NHL, Part II (West)

We already knew before last season that Connor McDavid is the best player in the NHL.  It isn't even particularly close.  Then last season, he won the Conn Smythe Trophy despite the fact that Edmonton lost the Stanley Cup Final (if we're being honest, it probably should've been Bobrovsky).  However, the Oilers losing meant that McDavid didn't do what so many others before him have done...captain his team to the Cup.  Until he does that, he's not in the same category as Crosby and Ovechkin.  When and if he does, though, he's right up there with Gretzky and Messier as true Edmonton legends.

The chances of that happening are actually pretty good.  Edmonton, Vancouver and Toronto are really the only three teams capable of ending Canada's 31-year Stanley Cup drought.  And the Oilers are among the handful of Western Conference teams that look like legitimate Cup contenders.  In fact, I only count five: Edmonton, Vancouver, Vegas, Colorado and Dallas.

Unlike in the East, where there's parity at the top and only three truly "bad' teams (Columbus, Montreal and Ottawa), the West only has those five elite teams and a whole bunch at the bottom.  San Jose, Anaheim, Chicago and Utah likely won't come anywhere near the playoffs.  Although, the Sharks now have Macklin Celebrini, who they hope will turn in a rookie season similar to Connor Bedard's.  So, there may be hope for both the Sharks and Blackhawks.

With only a handful of teams at the top and a handful at the bottom, that makes for a very crowded middle in the Western Conference.  Which should lead to a pretty intense battle for the remaining playoff spots.  The Kings, Predators and Jets probably have the advantage for those, but I'm not counting out Minnesota or Seattle.  And I really have no idea what to expect from St. Louis or Calgary!  So, like I said, the competition in the middle of the Western Conference should be pretty good.

Talent-wise, the Colorado Avalanche are right there among the best teams in the entire league.  Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar are truly elite.  If they can get their captain Gabriel Landeskog back after missing pretty much all of last season with an injury, that just makes them that much deeper.  A full-strength Avalanche team will be very difficult to beat.  Even if they aren't at full strength, it's not exactly an easy task.

Should the Avalanche stumble at all, the Dallas Stars are right there waiting to take advantage.  They've got nearly as much talent as Colorado and a top-notch goalie in Jake Oettinger.  Speaking of top-notch goalies, there are few better than Connor Hellebuyck of the Winnipeg Jets.  It's been well-established that you can win in the playoffs simply by riding a hot goalie.  Which is why I'm not gonna count the Jets out should they get to the playoffs.  And, while they're not at Dallas or Colorado's level, they're certainly one of the eight best teams in the West.

That's also why I can't count out the Nashville Predators, either.  The Predators have built a pretty solid group in front of Juuse Saros, bringing in Stanley Cup champions Jonathan Marchessault and Steven Stamkos to join the likes of Roman Josi, Filip Forsberg and Ryan O'Reilly.  Nashville definitely looks like a sleeper team.

Then there's the Minnesota Wild.  The Wild still have their big guns, so they won't exactly surprise anybody.  And they've got a Hall of Fame goalie in Marc-Andre Fleury, who's at the tail end of his career, but still.  The St. Louis Blues, meanwhile, simply don't have enough pieces to keep pace with the top teams in the Central Division.  That's not to say the Blues can't contend for a playoff spot since they absolutely can.  It's just that they need a lot of things to go right and have some things go wrong for everybody else in order to make that happen.

Year 2 with Connor Bedard should be much better for the Chicago Blackhawks than Year 1 was.  Slowly but surely, they're building a competent team again.  And not only are they no longer the worst team in Chicago (congratulations, White Sox), they aren't the worst team in the division anymore, either.  That honor belongs to the Utah Hockey Club.  The artists formerly known as the Arizona Coyotes should benefit from knowing that their franchise finally has some stability.  Hopefully once the novelty wears off, they give the people of Salt Lake City a reason to keep coming to games.

Your best bet to see a Canadian team finally lift the Cup for the first time since 1993 is in the Pacific Division.  I'd even argue that the two best teams in that division come from Western Canada.  We'll start with the obvious one, the defending Western Conference champion Edmonton Oilers.  That ridiculous collection of talent in Edmonton (they're so much more than just McDavid and Draisaitl) finally broke through and got to the Final last season.  Can they pull a Panthers and follow up a Final loss with a Final win?

Not if the Vancouver Canucks have anything to say about it.  Vancouver's starting six (top line, top defensive pair, goalie) ranks among the very best in the game.  Their depth is the question, which is why I have them slightly below the Oilers in the Pacific.  Ranking slightly below the Canucks are the Vegas Golden Knights.  They've only missed the playoffs once in franchise history.  Don't expect them to miss this season.  The Knights are like Nashville in that they simply have too much talent on the roster.

After that, it drops off considerably.  I'd have to say the next-most-likely Pacific Division team to make the playoffs is the Los Angeles Kings.  The Kings made a big-time upgrade in goal, swapping Cam Talbot for Cup winner Darcy Kuemper.  While they aren't one of the top teams in the West by any means, the Kings could easily do what Kuemper's team last season (Washington) did and sneak into the playoffs.

It's crazy to think that the Seattle Kraken are in their fourth season already, isn't it?  I'd say Seattle has an outside shot at the playoffs, but wouldn't be considered a favorite to get there.  The Kraken didn't make it last year and didn't really do much in the offseason to increase their chances of making it this season.  Neither did the Calgary Flames, who'll be feeling the loss of Johnny Gaudreau.  Gaudreau had obviously left the Flames and was playing for Columbus, but he spent most of his career in Calgary, so you know they're impacted just as much.  Those should be two emotional games when the Flames play the Blue Jackets.

Outside of the Kings, hockey in California hasn't been great for the past few seasons.  Thing shouldn't be much different in 2024-25.  The San Jose Sharks were terrible last season, but made improvements and are slightly less bad.  I can't really say the same for the Anaheim Ducks, though.  While I think Columbus and Utah are probably the two worst teams in the league, Anaheim isn't too far ahead.  The Ducks are closer to finishing with the fewest points in the NHL than they are to making the playoffs.

So, while the competition in the middle of the West for the three remaining playoff berths should be fierce, I do think Nashville and Winnipeg stand out as favorites for two of them.  The last spot should come down to LA and Minnesota.  I'm giving the edge ever so slightly to the Kings, but wouldn't be surprised at all to see five playoff teams out of the Central Division.

As hesitant as I am to make a preseason Stanley Cup pick, I suppose it's appropriate that I make one.  In the East, I think the Rangers use the memory of getting so close last year as motivation.  In the West, I'm going with Colorado.  A healthy Avalanche team is arguably the best in hockey.  Which is why they're getting the nod as my Stanley Cup pick.

2024-25 NHL, Part I (East)

It feels like the 2023-24 NHL season just ended, yet here we are, ready to start the 2024-25 campaign.  There was some encouraging NHL news, too, with the announcement that they're going to get work on the new CBA right after the New Year, well before the current agreement expires.  They're also discussing going to an 84-game schedule, which would bring back those two division games everybody lost for Seattle.  The players and owners both seem to be on board with that plan, so I'd say the odds of it happening are pretty good.

There was also the tragic NHL news from the summer that a lot of us are still trying to wrap our heads around.  The passing of Johnny Gaudreau was shocking and heartbreaking on so many levels.  Although, it was also so great to see the NHL community come together and support his family during this terrible time.  The Oilers posted a picture of him playing against them while he was with the Flames...and held off on announcing Leon Draisaitl's extension.  The entire Blue Jackets team attended his daughter's birthday party.  EA Sports kept him in the NHL video game.  And those are just some examples of everyone around the NHL stepping up for one of their own.

Columbus will do right by Gaudreau's family and honor his contract.  He was also the Blue Jackets' highest-paid player, which will put them under the salary floor this season.  There's no way they'd be able to get back above it, especially this close to the start of the season, so the NHL granted them an exemption that will allow them to stay under the floor as long as they need (which will likely be at least all season).  Obviously not a situation anybody wants to be in, but the special circumstances warrant it.

That unfortunate note will leave a bit of a dark cloud over this entire season.  Every team will wear a special logo on their helmets honoring Gaudreau and his brother, Matthew, who was also killed in the same accident.  I'd also love to see him receiving an honorary selection to the U.S. team for the Four Nations Face-Off that will replace the All*Star Game in February.

I have a feeling that this will be an emotional season across the board.  The loss of Johnny & Matthew Gaudreau hit hard.  But there's still a season to be played, and I wouldn't be surprised if the memory of a friend, teammate and all-around good guy serves as an inspiration throughout it.  That obviously won't do a damn thing to make up for the loss, but it's still heartening to know that Johnny Gaudreau will be remembered.

As for how this season will play out, will the Prince of Wales Trophy finally leave the State of Florida for the first time in six years?  After three straight Eastern Conference titles by the Lightning, the Panthers have won the last two, capped by lifting the Cup last season.  Can they do it again?  They've got everybody back and play a style that wears you down, so it wouldn't surprise me.  But there are so many other good teams in the East that a repeat will be a challenge.

Since I'm talking about good teams in the East, I might as well start with the defending champion Florida Panthers.  They'll be very good again.  And, as they've shown over the last two years, their style is built for the playoffs.  I just wonder if Edmonton gave teams the blueprint on how to play against it during Games 4-6 of the Stanley Cup Final.  Even Paul Maurice has admitted that it doesn't work for everyone and you need the buy-in.  Still, you've got to think that they'll, at the very least, return to the postseason.

For the last few years, the Atlantic Division has basically been split in two.  There's that top tier of Florida, Tampa Bay, Boston and Toronto, and that bottom half of Detroit, Buffalo, Ottawa and Montreal.  This season should be more of the same.

Of those other three top teams, the Boston Bruins are the biggest question mark.  They stopped the two-goalie thing, traded Linus Ullmark and made Jeremy Swayman the man...only for Swayman to hold out.  When he decides to sign could have a big bearing on the Bruins' season.  The Toronto Maple Leafs will likely do the same thing they do every year.  They'll have a great regular season, then lose Game 7 of the first round in the playoffs.  As for the Tampa Bay Lightning, they're probably the most likely team in that group to fall back towards the pack.

In that pack is the Detroit Red Wings, who may see the fruits of their rebuild.  I definitely think the Red Wings will be contenders for one of the wild cards, and they very well could get it.  The Buffalo Sabres, Ottawa Senators and Montreal Canadiens will not.  The Sabres have the longest active playoff drought in the four major men's professional sports.  That streak should continue.  Ottawa is better, but still has a long way to go and isn't as good as the top teams in the division, so I don't see how the Senators can contend for a playoff spot.  The Canadiens, meanwhile, are just a mess.  This is one of the NHL's bedrock franchises, too.

The Metropolitan Division, meanwhile, is a two-horse race at the top.  And, frankly, there isn't much that separates them.  That middle group has four teams, all of which I can see either making the playoffs or finishing way out of it.  The margin really is that tight.  Which should actually make for a pretty good race for that third-place playoff spot out of the division, as well as that second Eastern Conference wild card.

Lumping the New York Rangers and Carolina Hurricanes together makes sense because they'll likely be 1-2 in the Metropolitan Division in either order.  Last season, it came down to the wire, with the Rangers winning the division and the President's Trophy.  They then broke the President's Trophy jinx somewhat by getting to the Eastern Conference Final, where they were outplayed and worn down by the Panthers.  That easily could've been Carolina, though.  Just like last season, I expect the battle for first place in the Atlantic to be neck-and-neck.

Two teams from the middle group really stand out.  Those are the New York Islanders and New Jersey Devils.  The Islanders had a great stretch run last season that got them into the playoffs, and I think they are the third-best team in the Metro.  Plus, Mathew Barzal is one of the most talented players in the league.  Then there are the Devils, who finished second in the division in 2023 before missing the playoffs last year.  They've got the Hughes brothers, so sneaking back into the playoff mix doesn't seem that far-fetched.

Last year, the Washington Capitals made the playoffs as the second wild card.  I'm still not sure how.  And they were promptly swept by the Rangers.  If they're healthy this season (which they were not last year, which makes their reaching the playoffs even more impressive), them getting back wouldn't be nearly as much of a surprise.  The Pittsburgh Penguins, meanwhile, are trying to get one last gasp out of the Crosby-Malkin Era.  It's been a good run in Pittsburgh, but they're no longer one of the most talented teams.

A team that I find really intriguing is the Philadelphia Flyers.  I legitimately have no idea how good the Flyers are.  John Tortorella is their coach and he's always got something up his sleeve.  Talent-wise, they're towards the bottom of the division.  But with Tortorella, it's not crazy to think he can pull a playoff run out of these guys.  Even before the Gaudreau tragedy, it was poised to be a long year for the Columbus Blue Jackets.  This season will be rough for them on multiple levels.

Even with the depth of quality teams in the Eastern Conference, I'm not expecting there to be much playoff turnover.  In fact, I think seven of the eight teams that made it last year.  The only exception is the Capitals, who I'm replacing with Detroit.  Although, if you wanted to give the Devils that spot instead of the Red Wings, you wouldn't get much of an argument from me.  Because, just as it's close between the top teams in each division, the fight for the wild card positions will be a good, intense one between about five different teams...likely for just one spot.