Rafa Says Au Revoir to Roland Garros

It shouldn't come as a surprise to anybody that I'm a Roger guy.  Always have been, always will be.  And because I'm a Roger guy, I was never a Rafa guy.  Yes, I know they're friends in real life and members of a mutual admiration society, but it took me a long time to come around on Nadal.  Even though I eventually stopped calling him "Clay Boy," I never really did.  I was a Rafa guy.  I couldn't like Rafa.

With the benefit of age, however, I grew to respect Nadal more.  Every great champion needs a rival, and the Big Three Era of Roger, Rafa and Novak is something that has never been seen before and will likely never be seen again.  The reason they're 1, 2 & 3 in all-time Grand Slam wins is because they kept pushing each other.  They each had to keep improving to stay ahead of the other two.

Age and injuries eventually caught up to Federer, and now they've done the same to Nadal.  He had previously announced that he's likely going to retire after this season, so, barring a surprise selection to the Spanish Olympic team, this year's French Open will be his final appearance on the red clay of Roland Garros--a place where he's won an incredible 14 times!  So, in many ways, this year's French Open will be all about Rafael Nadal's farewell, much like the 2022 US Open was all about Serena Williams' farewell.  As it should be!

Unfortunately, it looks like Rafa may be saying "au revoir" fairly soon.  His first-round match is against Alexander Zverev, which is actually apropos.  Because Zverev and Nadal were engaged in a battle in the 2022 semifinals when Zverev suffered a gruesome ankle injury that knocked him out for the rest of the year.  Zverev easily could've won that match.  Instead Nadal cruised to his 14th French Open title, which was his then-record 22nd Grand Slam trophy.  He hasn't won one since and, if not for Zverev's injury, might not have won that one, either.

Even if he does beat Zverev (who's been to the semifinals here three years in a row), it seems highly unlikely Nadal's body will allow him to win seven matches on clay in a two-week span.  Especially since he and Zverev aren't the only heavyweights on that side of the draw.  It also features defending champion Novak Djokovic, back-to-back finalist Casper Ruud, Holger Rune and Daniil Medvedev.

On the bottom half of the draw, there's another blast from the past matchup between the only other men to win multiple Slams during the Big Three Era.  This might also be the final French Open for Andy Murray and/or Stan Wawrinka.  One will end the other's tournament.  The other may very well have to deal with Australian Open champion Jannik Sinner, whose run in Melbourne was extremely impressive!

Sinner's just one of a number of contenders on the men's side.  In fact, this is the first time in recent memory where we go into the French Open without a clear men's favorite.  And they all have a legitimate reason to think so, as each of the European clay-court tune-up tournaments has had a different winner--none of whom are named Djokovic (who hasn't even made a final this year) or Nadal.

There is one name who stands above the rest, though.  Carlos Alcaraz.  When he burst onto the scene in 2021, it was pretty clear Alcaraz was the next big thing in men's tennis.  He's already won a US Open and a Wimbledon.  He's already been No. 1 in the world.  Clay is his best surface.  I can think of no other way for Nadal to go out than for the French Open men's champion torch to be passed to the Spanish star of the next generation.  Alcaraz wins the first of what should be many Coupes des Mousquetaires. 

While there's no clear favorite among the men, there very much is among the women.  Iga Swiatek has won three of the last four French Opens.  She's 28-2 career at Roland Garros, including a 25-1 record since 2020.  Her only loss in that span came to Maria Sakkari in the 2021 quarterfinals.  It would be a shock if Swiatek doesn't make it three straight and four in five years.

Of course, Swiatek isn't the only player in the women's field.  She isn't even the only former French Open champion on the top half of the draw.  After Swiatek lost in the quarters, Barbora Krejcikova won that 2021 title.  They could end up meeting each other in the round of 16 this year.  Jelena Ostapenko, meanwhile, was the French Open champion in 2017.  She hasn't made it to the second week here since, but is a top 10 player who's actually playing some of the best tennis of her career.

Coco Gauff made the final here two years ago and got her butt kicked by Swiatek.  Now she's ranked third in the world and a Grand Slam champion, having won the 2023 US Open.  Could a deep run be in the cards for her?  Or how about Ons Jabeur, a three-time Grand Slam finalist who made the quarters at Roland Garros for the first time in 2023?  And Marketa Vondrousova is a former French Open finalist who's seeded fifth.  She could be Swiatek's biggest challenge.

The French Open often produces a random women's finalist (or two random finalists).  I can absolutely see that happening again.  Because, behind Swiatek, this field is wide open.  That's especially true when I look at the bottom half of the draw, where I see multiple potential finalists, but I also see those same women potentially getting bitten by the upset bug early in the tournament.

People seem to forget how wildly consistent Aryna Sabalenka is.  She's made it to at least the semifinals of all six Grand Slam tournaments she's played since she was prohibited from entering Wimbledon in 2022 due to the ban on Belarusian players.  Elena Rybakina, who had to withdraw before her third round match last year, has won three titles in 2024, including a clay court warm-up tournament in Stuttgart.  And don't count out Maria Sakkari.  Or Sorana Cirstea.  Or Madison Keys.

Still, though, it all comes down to Swiatek.  If she's on her game, she'll be tough, if not impossible, to beat.  She's No. 1 in the world and the favorite for a reason.  Which isn't to say I don't think somebody like a Sabalenka or a Rybakina or a Gauff can beat her, because they absolutely can.  I just think they need a lot to go right and/or have something go majorly wrong for Swiatek.

There's also an intriguing side competition at this year's French Open worth keeping an eye on.  This is the final tournament in the Olympic qualifying period.  The rankings following the French Open will be used to determine the Olympic field.  Countries can only enter a maximum of four singles players, though.  And there are some tight races for the fourth spot from some nations.  So, if players want to return to Roland Garros two months from now for the Olympic tournament, they know that a run at the French Open is the best way to solidify their chance.

Even with all of this other stuff going on, this French Open is about one thing and one thing only.  If this is, indeed, "au revoir" to Roland Garros for Rafael Nadal, what a legacy he's left!  For the first time in forever, Nadal isn't the favorite.  It's doubtful he'll go far.  So, let's just enjoy this final ride, then, after he's eliminated, focus on the rest of the 2024 tournament.  It's taken me long enough to say it, but Rafa deserves every bit of the adulation he'll receive at Roland Garros as he says farewell.