Indy's Big Weekend

The focus of the sports world always turns to Indianapolis on Memorial Day Weekend.  This year, Memorial Day Weekend is even bigger than usual.  The Pacers are in the Eastern Conference Finals, and their home games are Saturday and Monday.  Sunday was wisely kept open.  Because everyone's attention, as it has nearly every year since 1911, will be on the Brickyard on Sunday.

Well, the Brickyard, then Charlotte for NASCAR's Coca-Cola 600.  It's been a decade since Kyle Busch was the last driver to attempt "Double Duty," racing all 1,100 miles at both races in the same day.  Jimmie Johnson has raced both since then, but he didn't enter the Indy 500 until after his NASCAR career was over.  This year, though, Kyle Larson will make the attempt.  He even skipped part of the NASCAR All*Star Race last weekend so that he could complete the Indy qualifiers.  Which turned out to be a smart move.  Because he qualified fifth.

Larson is one of six rookies in the field, but the only one who'll be in the front of the field.  The others are in Rows 6, 8 & 9.  So, while it might be a stretch to say Larson is a contender for the milk (he wouldn't have time to do the celebration and still get to Charlotte in time anyway), it does seem realistic that he can carry on the trend of NASCAR drivers winning Indy 500 Rookie of the Year honors.  And, really, finishing is the primary goal.  He can't complete all 1,100 miles if he doesn't finish all 200 laps at Indy.

Should he pull off the win, though, Larson would become the first rookie to kiss the yard of bricks since Alexander Rossi in 2016.  Rossi, coincidentally, will be starting alongside Larson in Row 2.  There are also a pair of former Indy 500 champions in the front row--2018 winner Will Power and defending champion Josef Newgarden.  The pole sitter, meanwhile, is Scott McLaughlin, who'll be driving that historic No. 3 Chevrolet, looking to give team owner Roger Penske (who owns the track, as well) another Indianapolis 500 victory.

Helio Castroneves used to drive the No. 3, winning three of his four Indy 500s in the car.  Castroneves has also finished second three times and has 16 career Top 10 finishes.  Simply put, he's one of the greatest drivers in the history of the Indianapolis 500.  He can really solidify that status by becoming the first five-time winner.  However, Helio is no longer a full-time IndyCar driver.  The Indy 500 is the only race on his 2024 schedule, in fact.  But still, the guy is magic at the Brickyard, so can you ever really count him out?

Starting next to Castroneves is another former champion--Scott Dixon.  Dixon's been having a great season.  He already has a win and is currently third in the driver standings.  He's never started this far back in the Indy 500 field, though.  Will he be able to get past all that traffic in front of him?  He usually starts near the front, so we've never seen him have to try.

This season's points leader is Alex Palou, who I think is somebody we should very much be on the lookout for.  He finished second (barely) in 2021, then started on the pole before placing fourth last year.  Despite the fact that he'll be starting in the middle of the field (14th), I really think this might be Palou's year.  I won't go so far as to pick him as the winner.  I do expect him to lead a few laps and be in the mix at the end, though.  And I do think he will eventually win an Indy 500.

So, if not Palou, who do I think can win his first Indy 500 this year?  Well, McLaughlin is starting on the pole, so he can't be discounted.  I also have a feeling about Felix Rosenqvist.  Outside of a fourth-place showing in 2022, he hasn't found much success at the Brickyard on race day.  Some of that has just been bad luck, though.  He's qualified in the "Fast 12" three years in a row, so you know his car is fast leading up to the race.  If everything goes his way, why not Rosenqvist?

Like Rosenqvist, Rinus VeeKay has been great in qualifying throughout his Indy 500 career, but it's never translated to the race itself.  This is the first time he's starting outside the first two rows (on the inside of Row 3), but only twice placed in the Top 10.  For Pato O'Ward, it's been the opposite.  He finished sixth, fourth and second in his first three races before falling to 24th last year.  If he keeps up that trajectory, it sure seems like that win is inevitable.

Then there's Santino Ferrucci.  He's raced at Indy five times.  He's finished in the Top 10 every time.  Last year, he started fourth and finished third.  This year, he's starting sixth.  Expect him to run in front all afternoon and be in the mix at the end.  I'm actually tempted to take Ferrucci for the win.

All of those drivers I just mentioned are in their 20s.  There's definitely been a youth movement in IndyCar, with this new generation rising to the top while champions from not too long ago are either retired (Tony Kanaan, Dario Franchitti) or running part-time schedules (Castroneves, Takuma Sato).

That new generation also includes the offspring of Indy 500 champions.  Graham Rahal and Marco Andretti are Indy 500 veterans by this point, although neither has been able to follow in his father's footsteps by kissing the yard of bricks.  I doubt that changes this year.  Emerson Fittipaldi's grandson, Pietro, meanwhile, returns to Indy for the first time since 2021.  He, too, seems unlikely to pull off the victory.

So, now that I've gone through pretty much everybody I think won't win, who do I think will?  I'm actually tempted to say it'll be somebody new like Palou, but I think he's starting too far back.  Instead, I think a former champion will win the race for a second time.  Newgarden has a good chance to become the first back-to-back winner in more than 20 years.  Instead, I'm going with the former winner who'll be starting right next to Newgarden in the middle of Row 1.  Will Power has had a string of bad luck at Indy since winning in 2018, but when he starts in the front, he usually runs well.  And that's why I'm giving him the nod to capture his second Indy 500 title.

Or will someone else make history?  One of the things that people say about Indy is the track decides who wins.  It's hyperbole, obviously, but there's also been enough crazy stuff to happen late in races to understand why people believe it.  The track has let Will Power win before.  The track will let him win again.