Super Bowl LVIII

After two weeks of build-up, it's finally time for Super Bowl LVIII.  And it's one of those rare times where the matchup is exactly what a lot of people predicted before the season started.  Did they think the 49ers and Chiefs would take this exact route here?  Certainly not.  But here they are.  Kansas City's playing in its fourth Super Bowl in five years with a chance to become the first back-to-back champions in two decades.  San Francisco, meanwhile, can win its sixth Lombardi Trophy, tying New England and Pittsburgh for the most ever.

I get why a lot of people don't like the Chiefs.  They've become the Patriots.  They win all the time and people are sick of it.  (And, yes, it does seem like Patrick Mahomes and/or Travis Kelce is in every commercial on television.)  But there's no denying that what they've done over the last six years is pretty damn impressive!  And this season might've been one of their most impressive yet.  The team had its share of struggles during the regular season and even looked vulnerable at times.

Well, we all saw how the Chiefs reacted to that adversity!  In fact, it seemed like Mahomes almost relished being doubted and proving those critics wrong.  "He's never had to go on the road in the playoffs" was the common one.  (Even though that's not true.  Super Bowl LV was technically a neutral site, but they played the Bucs in Tampa, so it should count.)  Now he has.  And he won on the road twice.

Then there are the 49ers, who finally got over the NFC Championship Game hump.  They lost to the Rams and Eagles, and it sure looked like they were gonna make it three in a row in the first half against Detroit.  They had a great second-half rally against the Lions, though, and earned the trip to Las Vegas.  Did Dan Campbell help them out with some questionable play calls?  Sure.  But you can't take anything away from San Francisco.  They made the stops on fourth down and got the big plays while Detroit didn't.  That's the mark of a championship team.

All credit to Brock Purdy, too.  As everyone knows by now, he was picked last in the Draft.  Now he's starting the Super Bowl.  And one of his biggest weapons is a dynamic two-way threat who just won Offensive Player of the Year.  This is the first Super Bowl for both Purdy and McCaffrey, neither of whom was on the team four years ago.

When these two teams met in Super Bowl LIV, San Francisco took a lead into the fourth quarter, only to see Mahomes lead the Chiefs to 21 unanswered points in a 31-20 victory.  ("Fun" story about Super Bowl LIV...I went to my sister's house for the game, and the power went out right after kickoff!  It didn't come back on until the two-minute warning, so my brother-in-law and I spent three hours huddled around his phone watching the game.)  That win started the Kansas City dynasty, while the 49ers are still looking for their first title of the John Lynch/Kyle Shanahan Era that has otherwise been a remarkable success.

Four years ago, Kansas City was far-and-away the better team.  That's not the case this season.  The 49ers have been considered one of the two or three best teams in the league all year, and they actually come into the Super Bowl as the favorites.  It's easy to see why, too.  They always had that awesome defense.  Now they have the offense to go with it.

The Chiefs' defense, meanwhile, doesn't get anywhere near enough credit.  Mahomes and Kelce get all the attention, but, when the offense was having its struggles, it was the defense that kept them in (and won) games.  Kansas City hasn't given up more than 27 points in a game all season, and they've held their opponent under 20 eleven different times.  In the AFC Championship Game, they completely shut down the Ravens.  Baltimore scored just one touchdown and was held scoreless in the second half of a 17-10 Chiefs victory.

That Kansas City defense, I think, is one of the underrated keys to the game.  The Ravens had this season's MVP, yet Lamar Jackson wasn't able to do anything in the AFC Championship Game.  San Francisco has a few more weapons than Baltimore, but if the gameplan is to shut down (or at least limit) McCaffrey, it'll be up to Purdy to beat them.  That's a tall order, especially considering who he's going against on the other side of the ball.

Mahomes was the Super Bowl MVP in both of Kansas City's wins.  In the one they lost, Tampa Bay's defense wouldn't let him do anything.  He's also led a pair of fourth-quarter comebacks, partially because the Chiefs wore out exhausted 49ers and Eagles defenses.  That's how San Francisco won the NFC Championship.  They had the ball for pretty much the entire second half, so the Lions' defense was spent.  And there's currently no one better at the long, sustained, tire-the-defense-out drives in the NFL than Patrick Mahomes.

There have only been three Super Bowls in history where the losing team didn't score a touchdown.  Tony Romo has called two of them (they're the only two Super Bowls he's called, too).  So, that stat and the fact that Romo's doing the game would seem to indicate that we might have a defensive struggle on our hands.  While that seems more likely than last year's shootout, the two offenses are too good to be kept out of the end zone completely, so I do think Tony will see both teams score a touchdown in the Super Bowl for the first time in his broadcasting career.

If it does turn into a shootout, it's advantage San Francisco.  The 49ers have had no trouble scoring this season, and Purdy has plenty of weapons at his disposal.  And, as we saw in the NFC Championship Game, they're capable of the big play.  It was two big plays that turned that entire game around.  On the other hand, if it's a defensive battle, I've got to give the advantage to the Chiefs.  Especially if they go ahead early.  Kansas City is so good at playing with the lead and, outside of the NFC Championship Game, San Francisco hasn't really played from behind that much, and their style of play doesn't really lend itself to it.

Ultimately, though, I think we'll have something in the middle.  The defenses are too good for it to be a shootout, but the offenses are too good to think they'll both be shut down completely.  It'll be the defenses that decide the game, though.  Whoever limits the big plays on offense and/or makes them on defense will win.  If that sounds simple, it's because it is.  With the star power on defense, they'll be just as big of a factor as Mahomes, Kelce, Purdy and McCaffrey.  If not more so.

This game really got me thinking about the last time we had a Super Bowl rematch, which also came four years later.  It was Giants-Patriots, Part II in Super Bowl XLVI.  New England wanted revenge for Super Bowl XLII and went in as the favorites, but the Giants beat them again in a similar fashion.  Twelve years later, look for history to repeat itself.  Despite being the defending champions, the Chiefs enter the Super Bowl feeling like they have something to prove.  They'll prove it and become the NFL's first back-to-back champions since the 2003-04 Patriots.  Kansas City 27, San Francisco 20.

Last Week: 2-0
Playoffs: 9-3
Overall: 177-107