Thursday, February 22, 2024

A Free Agent Window?

Spring Training has begun and there are still a lot of big-name free agents who remain unsigned.  Scott Boras unironically pointed out this fact the other day.  The part he conveniently forgot to mention, of course, is that most of the unsigned players are his clients.  So, maybe this is more a Scott Boras problem than an MLB-wide problem.  That point aside, however, it's still telling that we've once again reached Spring Training with a good number of free agents who still haven't found a new team.

The owners are just as annoyed by this as the players.  Because the reason many of these free agents remain unsigned isn't because they haven't received an offer.  Some of them have received multiple offers, in fact.  No, it's because they don't like the offers they've received and are holding out for a better one...which hasn't come and may not.

Blake Snell, for example, had an offer from the Yankees.  He turned it down because he wanted more years.  The 31-year-old Snell, who's a five/six inning pitcher, wanted a contract that paid him in the $35-40 million a year range until his late 30s.  That's simply unrealistic, which is something that Snell has learned since the Yankees' offer is the best one he's gotten so far.  So, the reason Snell hasn't signed yet isn't because nobody wants him.  It's because his (Boras') price is too high.

A few years ago, of course, was the big Manny Machado/Bryce Harper offseason.  They both waited until Spring Training to get their massive deals, Machado with the Padres and Harper with the Phillies.  That time, it impacted other free agents, too, because everyone had to wait for Machado and Harper to sign before they could make other moves.  Teams had to pivot to their second or third choices, while other free agents were using those two big-name players to set their own markets.

This is obviously not an ideal situation for anybody.  Unfortunately, there's also very little anybody can do about it.  That hasn't stopped the owners from trying, though.  It was brought up in the most recent CBA negotiations and not very well-received by the MLBPA.  Rob Manfred mentioned the idea of a free agency window again during his preseason press conference (when he also announced he'd retire after his contract expires in 2029), and, I must say, it's a very intriguing idea.

Each of the other major sports has a free agent window where we see a flurry of activity.  In the NFL, especially, players announce where they intend to sign before they even can.  Then, once free agency officially begins on April 1, they formally sign.  And, for the most part, free agency is done before the NFL Draft in late April.

Major League Baseball would love to have something similar.  The Winter Meetings in early December is generally where the first major moves of the offseason take place.  That was certainly the case this offseason, with the Dodgers inking both Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamashito in December.  That's also when the Yankees made their offer to Snell.  Since then...nothing!  Which is why we still have a number of big-name free agents left on the board.

If it were up to the owners, the Winter Meetings would be the start of the free agent window, which would ideally last around two weeks in December.  That way, everything would be done by Christmas, allowing teams and players to make their plans for the upcoming season with plenty of time to spare.  While it's unrealistic to think there would be no player movement between the start of the New Year and the beginning of Spring Training, implementing a free agent window would theoretically make things easier for everyone.  And, not to mention, getting things going much more quickly than usual.

Of course, the MLBPA doesn't like the idea of anything that limits players' options, so the union will almost certainly remain opposed to any attempt at establishing a free agent window.  I get it from their perspective, too.  Free agency is their one chance to decide where they want to play, so it's understandable that they'll want to take as much time as possible to get what they think is the right deal for them.  If they're willing to wait until Spring Training, so be it.

While a free agent window isn't a non-starter with the union in the same way a salary cap is, the MLBPA is just as concerned about what it could mean.  It would create a flurry of activity in a much shorter amount of time, but that's exactly what they're afraid of.  Would imposing an artificial deadline result in players settling for deals that they don't consider to be fair market value out of fear they might not get anything at all?  Would teams wait until right before the deadline, essentially giving the players no choice but to accept their initial offer?

With that in mind, it's hard to imagine the MLBPA being any more receptive to the idea when it's brought up again during the next round of CBA negotiations after the 2026 season.  While some players want to get their free agency over and done with as soon as possible, others are more than happy to wait.  So, that leaves the players and owners at an impasse.  

What I can see, however, is some sort of compromise being reached.  While there wouldn't necessarily be a hard "deadline" for signing, they could follow the lead of the other sports and set a date that players can't sign before.  Say December 1 (or whenever the Winter Meetings open).  Players can negotiate with teams before then, but they have to wait until December 1 to sign.  Then, there's a soft deadline sometime in December where teams can't do anything over the holidays, with a date in early January when activity can begin again.

Would that lead to more free agents signing earlier in the winter?  I have no idea!  But there are definite benefits for both players and teams.  Having a break during the holidays would give the clubs a chance to assess their team and reset their priorities based on what needs they still have.  The players, meanwhile, could use that early signing period to read their market.  If they find the right fit, great.  If not, they can also use that break to sit down with their agents, discuss the offers they've received and make plans of their own for free agency to reopen in January.

MLB free agency will never move at the breakneck pace of the other major sports, all of which have salary caps and floors, which MLB does not.  But it doesn't have to move as slowly as it often does, either.  Because too many impact players remain unsigned into Spring Training every year.  And that's one part of free agency that needs to and can be fixed.  So, even if there isn't a fixed free agent window, it's worth giving some sort of soft deadline a try. 

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