Among their many different plans for resuming the season, both the NBA and NHL have suggested that they're willing to go all summer and finish sometime in August or September. Since the season usually starts in October, that delay is obviously going to impact next season, as well. And they've both indicated a December start date for the 2020-21 campaign (partially because of a hope to start with fans, partially because that's just about the minimum amount of time needed for a proper offseason).
That obviously means next season won't end in June, either. They've both indicated that they're looking at a July-August time frame, which would conceivably get them back on their normal schedule in 2021-22. Or will it?
A few months ago, the Atlanta Hawks owner suggested that he thinks the NBA should change its calendar. He doesn't like starting in the middle of football season and wants to push the start of the season back to December, which would extend the season into the late summer. Mark Cuban favors that plan, too, so you can't help but wonder if the NBA could potentially use next season as a test run before making that change permanently (honestly, I don't know how much support this has from other stakeholders, especially since TV ratings are typically much lower in the summer).
One stakeholder in particular might not be too keen on the NBA's plan to finish next season in late July/early August. I would imagine as soon as that came out, FIBA got on the phone with Adam Silver to voice their objection. USA Basketball probably wasn't too happy when they heard about it, either. Because there's a pretty major international basketball tournament next summer where countries are expecting to have their NBA stars available. The USA is also coached by an NBA coach, which could also be problematic.
I'm, of course, talking about the Tokyo Olympics. I understand that the Olympics aren't the NBA's top priority. But they can't ignore them either. Because is there really a backup plan if NBA players aren't available? And I'm not just talking about the U.S. A number of countries' medal hopes are tied to the willingness and availability of their top players, who just happen to play in the NBA. And you can bet they won't be too happy if the NBA season overlaps with Tokyo.
Likewise, the NBA's TV partners at ESPN/ABC and TNT probably aren't too keen on the idea of the NBA season and Olympics conflicting next summer. Because it's one thing to try out summer basketball when there's no other sporting events besides baseball. It's something completely different to try and go head-to-head with the Summer Olympics, NBC's guaranteed two-week ratings bonanza. (Yes, the Winter Olympics are opposite the NBA regular season every four years, but there's a big difference between regular season games and playoff games, which is what we're talking about here.)
It's not just the Olympics, either. Just like FIFA, FIBA purposely schedules its major championships during the summer specifically because that's when the best players will be available. The European leagues are on a similar schedule as the NBA, so the summer is also when those guys have off. So, adjusting the NBA calendar would mean the best players in the world can't play in any major tournaments. And how exactly does that help grow the game?
Personally, I don't think the NBA will be stupid enough to extend its 2020-21 season until late July. I understand the time crunch they'll be under and why they're committed to playing a full season (especially if the rest of this season ends up being cancelled). It could also be a moot point because the players might not want to go to Tokyo so soon after the season ends, likely leaving the U.S. with a roster similar to the one that finished seventh at last year's World Cup (another reason to make sure you send your best possible team). Either way, though, they'll probably split the difference and the 2020-21 NBA season will end sometime around the Fourth of July, if not earlier (if they cancel the rest of this season, there's no reason not to start next season on time, or close to it).
The NHL doesn't have an Olympics to figure into or plan around next season. Their issue is the 2022 Olympics, which are scheduled to take place during the following season. They, of course, didn't go to PyeongChang, but there was still some hope the NHL might agree to send its players to Beijing. That hope appears to be all but gone now.
In all probability, the owners weren't going to let the players go to the 2022 Olympics regardless, so this really just makes their decision that much easier. And, frankly, it makes it a little easier to swallow, too. Because if they were to go to Beijing, that would be three successive interrupted seasons for the NHL. And, for many reasons, summer hockey shouldn't become a regular thing.
Assuming they're able to resume and finish this season at some point over the summer, there's no chance the NHL starts its 2020-21 season in October. They, too, can't start two months late and finish when they normally do. (Although, NBC has that nationally-televised game the day after Thanksgiving, so I bet the NHL starts Thanksgiving weekend.) Since the NHL is on NBC, the Stanley Cup Final and Tokyo Olympics obviously can't overlap. Which means, either way, the NHL will be done by mid-July at the latest (while also working the playoff schedule around the Olympic Trials).
If they finish in early-to-mid-July 2021, that would allow the NHL to have a slightly shorter offseason, but still start the 2021-22 campaign in October like usual. And an October start without an Olympic break would put the 2022 Stanley Cup Final at its usual time in late May/early June. A three-week break in February, however, would push it back to mid-June, and make the NHL wait until the 2022-23 season before getting its schedule back to normal. That's far too long.
With PyeongChang, it took the NHL until summer 2017 to announce they definitely weren't going. The IIHF had asked them to make their decision for Beijing earlier so that national teams had time to prepare one way or the other. Specifically, they wanted to know sometime this summer since the final qualifying tournaments are supposed to take place at the end of August in Latvia, Slovakia and Norway.
Those qualifying tournaments will likely be delayed, but the NHL probably isn't in a position to make a decision before they happen regardless. Even still, the IOC and IIHF are likely already preparing themselves for a second straight NHL-less Olympic hockey tournament in Beijing. After this season's extended hiatus, it's the only option that makes sense for a league that won't want a third straight season with a major interruption.
So, you have two leagues that are currently in limbo and are trying to figure out any way possible to finish this season without screwing up next season too badly. And those decisions will have major ramifications beyond just the NBA and NHL themselves. I'm not saying they need to be a priority, but they can't be ignored either.
There's probably a compromise in there that will make everybody happy. My guess is that USA Basketball and FIBA convince the NBA that it's better to go to Tokyo (as they originally planned) than not. The NHL, meanwhile, will sit out the 2022 Winter Games in Beijing, partially because the owners want to, but also because they'll have no other choice.
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