Tuesday, May 26, 2020

Comeback Plans

While we still don't know when the NHL and NBA will return, we at least have some idea how they plan to.  Both leagues appear to be targeting July restarts and have outlined their return to play procedures.  The next steps appear to be identifying the "hub" cities that will host the games, determining the start date, and getting the players back into shape after so many months off.

Orlando seems to be the favored location for the NBA's return, and I must say, their plan makes a lot of sense.  Especially since they plan on playing at Disney.  Disney has so many hotels on its properties that they can easily accommodate all 30 teams and the necessary support personnel.  The fact that those hotels are currently empty makes things even more feasible.  Frankly, Disney is probably the only place that has enough hotel rooms close enough to each other to house every team and still be able to maintain the appropriate protocols.

More importantly, the ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex features about 7,000 basketball courts, so there's plenty of locker room and practice space in addition to multiple arenas for the actual games, all of which are necessities.  There are so many basketball tournaments and so many games at the complex all year-round that they can have everything up and running in no time at all.  One of those tournaments is the college basketball Thanksgiving event where every game is on one of the ESPNs.  Which means they've already got the TV setup in place.

And one advantage basketball will always have over hockey in any restart plan is that you can easily play several basketball games in one day at the same facility with very little required between games.  The NCAA and conference tournaments usually have at least four games in a day.  In the Olympics, they sometimes play as many as six!

Especially when you consider the fact that ESPN and TNT will want the game inventory, it's easy to see the NBA playing four games on the same court every day.  I'd assume they'll use at least three courts (which Disney has).  That's 12 games per day, which means 24 of the 30 teams could be in action.  And, with no travel between games, they'd be able to play every-other-day no problem.  Four games in a week would probably be a stretch, but it's theoretically possible, especially under the circumstances.

Other than saying they want to play some regular season games followed by a full playoffs, the NBA hasn't really been clear about that that exactly means.  Some teams had 15 games left, so that's a month's worth of games, plus two months of playoffs, which doesn't seem realistic if they start in mid-July.  I do like the idea of every team coming back and playing some regular season games, but getting everybody to 82 before starting the playoffs is both impractical and unnecessary.

The NBA is at least committed to "finishing" its regular season in some form.  That was the NHL's plan, too, until things changed.  The league announced today that the regular season is over.  No timetable was given.  The word "if" was very noticeable in the announcement.  But if the NHL returns, they'll go straight to the playoffs.

Personally, I would've liked to have seen at least some sort of conclusion to the regular season if for no other reason than to get everybody the same number of games played.  It also would've given the players a chance to at least get a few games in their legs before immediately jumping into the intensity of the playoffs.

Neither of those things will happen.  The 24-team playoff tournament, which was obviously a compromise solution, ends the season officially for the Red Wings, Sabres, Senators, Devils, Kings, Ducks and Sharks (rough year for hockey in California, huh?).  Although, logistically, 24 teams in two "hub" cities was probably the best-case scenario for the NHL's return.

You can't play nearly as many hockey games in the same arena in one day as you can basketball games.  Not only are the games longer, you have to Zamboni the ice and let it set between each one, in addition to the necessary warmup time.  At best, you need three and a half hours between games, four to be safe.  As a result, I can't see them playing any more than three games in a day at any one site (12, 4 and 8).

So that's where 24 teams makes sense.  Whenever they decide on the two cities, I'm sure they'll divide them East-West.  And sending 12 teams to each site means you play three games each day, alternating the six who are playing.  It does make sense, and it probably was their best option.  Especially since Gary Bettman wants to finish everything in "approximately" 60 days after they start back up.  This was the only way to feasibly achieve that timeline.

There are things to like about the NHL's 24-team playoff plan, too.  First off, it was the fairest solution for those bubble teams who were only a few points out of the top eight, but conceivably could've made up that ground and made the playoffs had they been able to finish the season.  And those top four teams, who'll get byes in that opening round, will play a round-robin to determine their seeds, which again, conceivably could've changed had the entire regular season been played.

My favorite thing about the format, though, is that the NHL is finally going back to conference-based seeding!  I don't care if it's only for one year!  This is the way it should be done.  Everyone agrees that the current division-based playoff system is inherently flawed and needs to be changed to conference-based.  It's just that nobody seems to care enough to do anything about it.  But, for this year at least, we're back to conference-based.

I also like the fact that these opening round series will be best-of-five.  The conference quarterfinals probably will be, too, and maybe even the conference semifinals.  The conference finals and Stanley Cup Final will remain best-of-seven.  As they should.  Because best-of-seven takes some of the randomness out.  The better team will win.  And, even in this crazy year, you don't change the way you crown a champion.

One of the great things about the Stanley Cup Playoffs is how you see so many lower-seeded teams beat higher seeds in the first round (take last year when all four division winners lost in the first round, including Tampa Bay shockingly being swept by Columbus).  We have no idea how the switch to best-of-five will change things (will it lead to more upsets or fewer?.  But, best-of-five series are quicker and still long enough to determine a legitimate winner, which makes this the perfect compromise for an expanded playoffs.

A lot still has to happen for the NBA and NHL to return to action.  But both leagues are optimistic about a summer return and taking the necessary steps to make that happen.  It won't be the same.  But nothing about this year is.  And, who knows?, different may turn out to be better.  All I know is that it's good to be talking about the possibility of live sports again.  Even if that's all it is.  A possibility.

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