Monday, March 16, 2020

Who Would've Made the Women's Tournament

Just as I released my bracket for the men's non-tournament on what should've been Selection Sunday, it's time to do the same for the women on what should've been Selection Monday.  Although, on the bright side, at least ESPN can't scoop themselves and spoil their own Selection Show by unveiling the bracket hours early like they did last year!

And top two lines on that bracket would've been very easy to fill out.  Because the top teams definitely distinguished themselves.  South Carolina was a clear No. 1 overall, Oregon and Baylor were Nos. 2 and 3 in either order (I had Oregon ranked higher, but the order doesn't really matter since the only difference would've been who wore the home jersey in the Final Four).  And Maryland, as the best team in the strongest conference, should've been the No. 4 overall seed.

The NCAA must've had a feeling about those top three teams, too.  Because they were all supposed to play Regionals effectively at home.  And the year there was no site in the Northeast, meaning UConn was actually going to have to travel regardless, the Huskies had three regular-season losses (question: their streak of 11 consecutive Final Fours is technically still active, right?).  Anyway, UConn, Stanford and Mississippi State were pretty locked into 2-seeds, with the choice between ACC teams (Louisville and NC State) the only real decision on the 1- and 2-lines.

Where the 2-seeds would've been sent was actually pretty easy, too.  Louisville can bus to Fort Wayne, so that's done.  Mississippi State is a little over 500 miles from Dallas, so that's also an easy trip.  Stanford can't be with Oregon, so they have to go out East, which means UConn would've had to deal with Sabrina Ionescu essentially playing at home in Portland.

At the other end of the spectrum, it really was tight while trying to figure out who should get the final at-large bids.  Tennessee and Central Florida were bubble teams, but I had them both safely in.  For me, it came down to James Madison or Boston College.  Boston College had some decent wins and played in a strong conference, but also had losses to Holy Cross, Providence and Charlotte.  James Madison, meanwhile, was 25-4 overall, tied for its regular season conference title, and one of its losses was by two to Maryland.  I think they're the better team, so they get the last spot and give the CAA a second team (which probably wouldn't have happened if James Madison had won the conference tournament).

One of the most ironic things about this unique and unprecedented situation is that so many of the Power 6 conferences have women's champions, but not men's champions.  The Big 12 is the only major conference that holds its tournaments simultaneously.  The others all hold their women's tournament the week before the men's.  So, NC State (ACC), Maryland (Big Ten), Oregon (Pac-12) and South Carolina (SEC) had already clinched auto-bids, and so had UConn (American) and DePaul (Big East).  UConn, by the way, never lost a game against a conference opponent during the entire seven years it was in the American.

In fact, a lot of conferences have opposite tournaments, so, for the most part, the leagues that didn't finish their men's tournament had a women's champion and vice versa.  A total of 13 conferences had completed their tournaments and awarded their automatic bids, 14 if you include Princeton, which was given the Ivy's auto bid when that tournament was cancelled.  My remaining 18 "auto bids" went to a combination of regular season champions and the highest seed remaining in the conference tournaments that were in progress.

As for the at-large bids, those skewed towards the power conferences, but not nearly as drastically as they do on the men's side.  Gonzaga lost to Portland in the WCC Championship Game, but was such a tournament lock that I had them hosting the first two rounds as a 4-seed.  Likewise, Missouri State lost in the MVC Tournament, but had built such a resume that I gave them a 5-seed.  And I already mentioned James Madison.

Overall, I've got 11 different conferences landing multiple bids, led by the Big Ten's eight.  The SEC is right behind with seven, followed by the Pac-12 with six.  The crazy part about that is the Pac-12 was so top-heavy that they probably would've had five teams hosting first- and second-round games--Oregon and Stanford, obviously, but also UCLA, Arizona and Oregon State.  The sixth Pac-12 team is Arizona State.

I've got five ACC teams, which doesn't include a Notre Dame squad that had a down year.  Four from the Big 12, three from the Big East and Central Florida joining UConn to give the American two representatives.  And, two bids from those mid-major conferences I already mentioned--the CAA, Missouri Valley and West Coast--as well as Conference USA.  With that, it's on to the bracket...

GREENVILLE
Columbia: 16-Samford at 1-South Carolina (1), 8-Virginia Tech vs. 9-Florida Gulf Coast
Corvallis: 13-Portland at 4-Oregon State, 5-Indiana vs. 12-Drexel
Raleigh: 14-Bucknell at 3-NC State, 6-Ohio State vs. 11-Tennessee
Stanford: 15-Texas A&M-Corpus Christi at 2-Stanford, 7-TCU vs. 10-Rice

FORT WAYNE
College Park: 16-Jackson State at 1-Maryland (4), 8-LSU vs. 9-Texas
Chicago: 13-Southeast Missouri State at 4-DePaul, 5-Florida State vs. 12-Dayton
Tucson: 14-Stony Brook at 3-Arizona, 6-Arkansas vs. 11-Rutgers
Louisville: 15-Campbell at 2-Louisville, 7-Michigan vs. 10-Central Michigan

PORTLAND
Eugene: 16-UC Davis at 1-Oregon (2), 8-Iowa State vs. 9-Drake
Spokane: 13-Boise State at 4-Gonzaga, 5-Texas A&M vs. 12-Troy
Evanston: 14-Rider at 3-Northwestern, 6-Kentucky vs. 11-Old Dominion
Storrs: 15-Robert Morris at 2-Connecticut, 7-Princeton vs. 10-Creighton

DALLAS
Waco: 16-Bethune-Cookman at 1-Baylor (3), 8-Arizona State vs. 9-Marquette
Iowa City: 13-IUPUI at 4-Iowa, 5-Missouri State vs. 12-James Madison
Los Angeles: 14-Montana State at 3-UCLA, 6-South Dakota vs. 11-Central Florida
Starkville: 15-Kansas City at 2-Mississippi State, 7-Duke vs. 10-Purdue

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