Friday, March 20, 2020

A 110-Game Season

We have no idea when this thing's going to end, so it's difficult to speculate when baseball season is finally going to start.  But we know it won't be for a while.  It's looking like Memorial Day at the earliest, probably more like June.  Either way, everyone knows that 162 games will be next to impossible.  So what will the baseball schedule look like when they actually do start?  Well, they're probably going to spend a good portion of this hiatus trying to figure that out.

For argument's sake, let's say Opening Day is June 1 (even that date, unfortunately, looks highly optimistic).  Since the original schedule has already been out for several months, MLB could try and preserve it by simply starting from that point and cancelling all of the games that were missed.  That scenario seems unlikely, though.  Because it's not as simple as it sounds.

It would be inherently unfair to just wipe the first two months off the schedule, for several reasons.  First, while everybody has the same number of off days during the season, they're spread out differently.  So, some teams would play more games and have fewer off days than others and vice versa.  Likewise, if you were supposed to play a lot of home games in April and May, that would mean most of the games you do actually end up playing will be on the road, while some teams would have the opposite home/road split.

You also severely impact division races by simply picking up where the schedule left off.  The Yankees, for example, were supposed to play two series in Tampa Bay in April and May, yet don't go to Fenway Park until mid-June.  In fact, there was only one Yankees-Red Sox series scheduled in the first two months.  So, picking up where the schedule left off would mean that they play 10 games in Boston and nine total against Tampa Bay.  In a schedule that's already going to be condensed, you don't want division races, which already figure to be tighter than they normally would, to be decided by the number of games you play against a given opponent (and where).

Same thing with travel.  The Nationals would have virtually all of their West Coast trips wiped out.  They'd only have a three-game series in San Diego.  The Mets, meanwhile, would have three separate West Coast trips and the Phillies would have two.  In an NL East that figures to be decided by only one or two games, Washington not having to do nearly as much travel as their division rivals could make a big difference.

Likewise, you've gotta consider the interleague games.  Some people (who don't like interleague play) have argued that the circumstances surrounding this season give MLB a perfect excuse to drop all interleague games from this year's schedule.  That scenario is impossible, though, since there are 15 teams in each league, so there has to be an interleague game virtually every day.

The interleague games are staggered, too.  So, much like the travel situation, you could have a team playing the bulk of their interleague games after the schedule picks up and others playing few to none since all theirs were supposed to be in April and May.  Even within a division, that could make a huge difference.  The Reds would lose their trip to Yankee Stadium.  The Cubs wouldn't.  Advantage Cincinnati.

Then there's the All*Star Game, which makes absolutely no sense to keep on its scheduled date.  If they start in June, the All*Star break would be just six weeks later (with 11 weeks after it).  Do you really want to take four days off that early in the season, especially when you need as many days as you can get just to get games in?  And how are you picking a team?  Based off of a month's worth of stats?

I saw an article by Tom Verducci saying they were hoping to play a 120-game season, but I think even that number seems optimistic.  Teams play roughly 25 games a month, so let's assume that, on average, they'll all lose 50 games.  That means everybody will have roughly 110-112 games left.  Even pushing the regular season into the first week in October (which they'll almost certainly have to), I'm not sure where you squeeze in those additional eight games.  You can only schedule so many doubleheaders and take away so many off days.

So, I'm rewriting the whole thing.  I don't think there's any other way.  And, unfortunately, all of the special events have gotta go.  The Puerto Rico and Mexico Series have already been cancelled, but it doesn't seem practical to play the London Series, either.  And the Yankees-White Sox game at the Field of Dreams, while not scheduled until August, can wait until 2021.  The only special event game I'd consider keeping is the Little League Classic between the Red Sox and Orioles, but it's easy enough to just call it and make that the 2021 matchup like the NHL did with the Red Wings-Maple Leafs Winter Classic.

My proposal calls for a 110-game schedule beginning June 1 and ending October 4.  I'm actually keeping the All*Star Game, but I'm moving it back to August 11.  That way it's after the Olympics (assuming those take place...and on time) and, more importantly, almost exactly at the midpoint.  It would be 10 weeks in, and there would be eight weeks left.

As for how the schedule breaks down, it would be 10 games per division opponent, six games against each of the other 10 teams in your league, and 10 total interleague games.  The division games would be broken down 6/4, with two three-game series in one city and one four-game series in the other.  Interleague would be one home series, one away series against the division you were supposed to play this season (AL East/NL Central, AL Central/NL West, AL West/NL East) and a two-and-two home-and-home with your natural rival (played back-to-back as a split four-game series).

Those natural rival home-and-homes are the same ones as usual: Orioles-Nationals, Red Sox-Braves, Yankees-Mets, Rays-Marlins, Blue Jays-Phillies, White Sox-Cubs, Indians-Reds, Tigers-Pirates, Royals-Cardinals, Twins-Brewers, Astros-Diamondbacks, Angels-Dodgers, A's-Giants, Mariners-Padres, Rangers-Rockies

Here are the other interleague series that I would keep, all of which were on the original schedule: Pirates at Orioles, Brewers at Red Sox, Cubs at Yankees, Cardinals at Rays, Reds at Blue Jays, Diamondbacks at White Sox, Giants at Indians, Padres at Tigers, Dodgers at Royals, Rockies at Twins, Phillies at Astros, Mets at Angels, Marlins at A's, Braves at Mariners, Nationals at Rangers, Angels at Braves, Rangers at Marlins, Mariners at Mets, A's at Phillies, Astros at Nationals, Red Sox at Cubs, Rays at Reds, Blue Jays at Pirates, Orioles at Brewers, Yankees at Cardinals, Twins at Diamondbacks, Indians at Rockies, Tigers at Dodgers, White Sox at Padres, Royals at Giants.

They're talking about doing expanded playoffs in the NBA and NHL when those leagues resume, but there would be no need to do that in baseball.  A 110-game schedule is enough to eliminate the randomness that would inevitably result from a season that was any shorter.  I'm not saying you'd get the same 10 teams you'd get in a full 162-game season.  But you'd get 10 good teams.  Not 10 teams that had a good couple of weeks.

And, since they'd already be pushing into November, there's no need to add teams, which adds more games and more days to the playoffs.  With this schedule, I've got the wild card games on Oct. 6-7, the Division Series running from Oct. 8-15, the LCSes running from Oct. 16-25, and the World Series starting on Oct. 28.  They don't want a World Series game on Election Day (for obvious reasons), which is why the season was supposed to start next week, so I've got a potential Game 7 on a Thursday night instead.  November 5 to be exact.  It would be the latest end to a baseball season ever.  But coronavirus is going to give us our latest start ever, so that's a trade-off I'm definitely willing to make.

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