Thursday, April 25, 2019

Stanley Cup Round 2

All four division winners lost to the four wild card teams.  The President's Trophy winners who tied the NHL single-season record for victories were swept.  Both of last year's finalists lost Game 7 in overtime.  All three Game 7's were won by the team that trailed 3-2 in the series.  So, basically, it was the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs.

If you needed any further evidence that hockey's playoffs are the best and most unpredictable in sports, I offer you the NBA for comparison.  In the NBA, the four top seeds in the Eastern Conference went a combined 16-2 and no series went longer than five games.  In fact, six of the eight NBA series total were won by the higher seed in five games or fewer.  Can you say predictable?

The Stanley Cup Playoffs, meanwhile, are anything but.  I was one of many who thought Tampa Bay was unbeatable.  As it turns out, the Lightning decided they only felt like playing one period in the entire series.  Who cares if you won 62 games during the regular season?  You got swept in the opening round of the playoffs!  That's all anybody's gonna remember.

Toronto looked like they might finally get over the playoff hump.  Then they had their annual Game 7 loss in Boston, giving Islanders fans the last laugh, as they saw their team move on while John Tavares is out.  Then there's the San Jose-Vegas series that was literally decided on a penalty call.  A five-minute major during which the Sharks scored four times to turn a 3-0 deficit into a 4-3 lead in an eventual 5-4 Game 7 victory.  And let's not forget the St. Louis Blues, who were the worst team in the entire NHL in January but are now in the second round of the playoffs.

After a crazier first round than the NHL has given us in quite a while, what's in store for round two?  Honestly, I've got no idea.  The Bruins the highest seed left, and, I must say, those long-suffering Boston fans deserve a championship.  By the time the Cup is awarded, it'll have been four whole months since one of their teams won one!

I kid, of course, but no team benefited more from the Lightning's early demise than the Bruins.  They were on the short list of legitimate Stanley Cup contenders before the playoffs started, and they were one of the few higher seeds to survive that wacky first round.  And playing Columbus is obviously much different than playing Tampa Bay.  Although, I don't think they're dumb enough to count the Blue Jackets out (like the Lightning did).

Out West, your guess is as good as mine.  San Jose is now the No. 1 seed in the West, but we'll see how long Joe Thornton is out and how much of an impact that makes.  That series against Colorado is a toss-up anyway (at least I managed to call one upset!).  The Avalanche have just as much, if not more, individual talent.  Same thing with the Stars and Blues.  Would it surprise anyone if Dallas wins that series?

EASTERN CONFERENCE
Bruins vs. Blue Jackets: Columbus proved that they aren't your typical 8-seed.  The Blue Jackets got healthy at the end of the season, got hot at the right time, and rode it to an upset of the prohibitive Stanley Cup favorite.  Now they get to play the No. 2 choice on the board.  And it'll be daunting.  Because the Bruins play a completely different style than the Lightning.  I also have to wonder about the long layoff, which could be a factor in both East series.  Columbus swept and was off for a week, while Boston turned right around and got just one day off between Game 7 and Game 1.  It might not be a factor at the beginning, but it could be if the series gets extended.  Especially because of how physical the Bruins' annual tussle with Toronto was.  Regardless, they're the better team and should be able to take the series.  Bruins in six.

Islanders vs. Hurricanes: To me, one of the most surprising first round results was the Islanders sweeping the Penguins.  I'm not surprised they won.  But I didn't expect them to dispatch Pittsburgh as easily as they did.  When the series ended, I asked a friend of mine (who's an Islanders fan) what the difference was.  They lost their best player and didn't really add anybody that significant.  Is this all Barry Trotz?  It's obviously not that simple, but his answer was "Yes."  Trotz has made that much of a difference.  I'd argue that being back in Nassau Coliseum has had a major impact, too, but they'll be at the Barclays Center from here on out, negating that home ice advantage.  Still, Carolina is a much more favorable matchup for them than Washington.  As a hard-core New Yorker who's a Rangers fan, I've been dreading the possibility of an Islanders-Bruins Conference Final.  Which is exactly what I fear we're going to have.  In which case I say "Go West!"  Islanders in six.

WESTERN CONFERENCE
Blues vs. Stars: You've gotta give it to both these teams.  Because those were impressive performances in round one.  St. Louis-Winnipeg figured to be pretty even, and for the most part it was.  Until Game 6, when the Blues had a chance to clinch and did so with the only home win of the series.  Dallas, meanwhile, outplayed Nashville for much of that series.  And Dallas' "Stars" showed up.  So now we've got two teams with ubertalented individuals matching up with a chance to go to the Conference Final.  And this is a pretty even matchup, so I'm expecting a long series.  They've both proven they can win on the road, so defending their home ice is going to be key.  So will goaltending.  That's where Dallas has the advantage.  Ben Bishop's a finalist for the Vezina.  He'll probably steal at least one game for the Stars, then come up big in the clincher as Dallas moves on.  Stars in six.

Sharks vs. Avalanche: While technically an "upset," you'd be hard-pressed to find someone who didn't think Colorado would beat Calgary.  Just like the number of people who would be surprised if the Avalanche also beat the Sharks is small.  Let's face it, San Jose is lucky to be here.  Martin Jones got pulled twice in the Golden Knights series, and they were headed to a Game 7 loss before that game- (and series-) changing penalty.  However, even before that penalty, the Sharks seemed to find their mojo after falling behind 3-1 against Vegas and rallying to force that Game 7.  So it would be silly to count the Sharks out.  Especially since their history of playoff disappointment seems to be behind them.  This one will be a grinder.  If the Avalanche play the way they did against Calgary, they'll be tough to beat.  But if the Sharks play they way they did in Games 5 & 6 vs. Vegas, so will they.  Something's obviously gotta give, but I like San Jose at home in Game 7.  Sharks in seven.

Perhaps inspired by all the first-round surprises and clearly inspired by March Madness, NBC and the NHL are offering a "second chance" Stanley Cup fantasy bracket challenge.  (A lot of people picked the Lightning evidently.)  For my second chance picks, I'm taking Boston and San Jose.  But this is the Stanley Cup Playoffs.  Nothing would surprise me.  Especially not after that first round.

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