Normally, when we enter the Stanley Cup Playoffs, we're talking about the handful of teams that realistically could end up hoisting the Cup two months from now. This year feels different, though. Because the regular season that the Tampa Bay Lightning put together was nothing short of remarkable. I'm not saying they're unbeatable. But they're pretty damn close. And they're as big a Stanley Cup favorite as the NHL has had in a long time.
Which isn't to say Rangers South is the only team with legitimate Stanley Cup aspirations. The winner of the Boston-Toronto series is going to give them a heck of a time in the second round, and so will whoever comes out of the Met. Especially if that team is defending champion Washington. It'll be interesting to see how the Capitals do in the first playoffs since the monkey got off their backs.
Out West, things seem a lot less clear. Calgary quietly put together an outstanding season that landed them the No. 1 seed. But I can easily see the Flames losing to the Sharks or Golden Knights in the second round. Vegas came back down to Earth in its second season. But the Knights still have that three-time Stanley Cup champion goalie to worry about.
Then there's Nashville and Winnipeg, who were the West's 1 and 2 last year and battled it out in a great second round series (my thoughts on this idiotic playoff system are well known). The Predators are only two years removed from their Stanley Cup Final trip and, in my opinion, the best team in the West. So, if I had to make a Stanley Cup prediction right now, that's what I'll go with: Tampa Bay vs. Nashville.
As for the first round, we've got some intriguing series in store. And not just Boston-Toronto and San Jose-Vegas (even though those are the two marquee series). Especially in the West, where everybody was pretty much even all season, I'm expecting some seven-gamers. Which is more than I can say for the East, which I think will be far less competitive. In fact, I'd be surprised if there are more than two Game 6's.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Lightning vs. Blue Jackets: It was a great effort by Columbus to hold off Montreal down the stretch and earn the East's last playoff spot. But they didn't get much of a reward for it, drawing the league's best team in the first round. Rangers South clinched the President's Trophy ridiculously early, but kept playing all the way until the end since they were trying for the wins record. I think that will actually help them in the playoffs. Because they didn't have guys who were sitting around and had to turn it back on. It's been go, go, go the whole time. The Blue Jackets' first-ever postseason series win will have to wait. Tampa Bay in four.
Bruins vs. Maple Leafs: This is by far the most intriguing series of the first round. Boston had 107 points, second-most in the league. Toronto had 100, which was tied for the seventh-most (the Leafs were up there for a while before dropping off at the end when their playoff position was already locked in). Last year, they engaged in a seven-game classic that the Bruins ended up winning. The Leafs are better this year. But, then again, so are the Bruins. If anybody's going to knock off Tampa Bay, they might be the team to do it. The last two times they've met in the playoffs, the Bruins won Game 7 in Boston. Why should this year be any different? Boston in seven.
Capitals vs. Hurricanes: Congrats to the Carolina Hurricanes on getting back to the playoffs for the first time in a decade. Sadly, their stay might not be very long. Because the Capitals rebounded nicely after some early Stanley Cup hangover, holding off the Islanders to win the Met and avoid the Penguins. We've seen them crash and burn as the 1-seed before. But that was back when they were still annual playoff disappointments. Last year changed everything. Now that pressure's off. Their defense will get significantly more difficult starting next round, but they shouldn't have any difficulty getting past Carolina. I'll give the Hurricanes a game, but I can't see them getting much beyond that. Washington in five.
Islanders vs. Penguins: Why was that Capitals-Islanders battle to finish first in the Met so intense? Because whoever finished second knew that they'd have to face Pittsburgh in the first round instead of a wild card. And they both obviously wanted to do everything they could to avoid that. Being the No. 3 seed in the division and not having home ice won't phase the Penguins at all. The Islanders had a tremendous regular season. But that Pittsburgh assignment is a tough one. This is the Penguins' favorite time of year. Pittsburgh in six.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
Predators vs. Stars: Two years ago, Nashville had the 16th-best record of the 16 playoff teams and went to the Final. Last year, they won the President's Trophy and lost in the second round (to the second-best team in the West). This year, they return almost the exact same personnel from those two deep playoff runs, which is why I'm installing them as my favorites to win the Western Conference. Dallas is sneaky good and has plenty of weapons (including Mats Zuccarello). But the Stars aren't as good as the Predators. And Pekka Rinne could win another Vezina Trophy this season. It'll be tough to get enough by him for the Stars to win four games. One or two? Sure. But four? Unlikely. Nashville in six.
Jets vs. Blues: Even though the Jets and Blues finished with the exact same number of points, I'm not expecting this series to be especially close. Because Winnipeg is a far superior team. The Jets made it to the Conference Final last year and fully expect to get back, which is definitely possible. And they've absolutely got the team to do it. I just love how balanced they are, and if Connor Hellebuyck can shut down Vladimir Tarasenko and Ryan O'Reilly, I don't know how the Blues are going to score. The Jets shouldn't have that problem. Winnipeg in five.
Flames vs. Avalanche: I can see the Flames winning this series in four, and I can also see them losing it. You can't discount Calgary's record. But they've only won one playoff series since their run to the Final in 2004, and they got swept the last time they qualified two years ago. Of course, they don't have to play Anaheim this year. Regardless, I really like Colorado to pull the upset here. Calgary has the best player in Johnny Gaudreau, but the Avalanche have three 30-goal scorers of their own and the better goalie. They were also the 8-seed last year, when they went six games against a superior Predators team. On paper, the Flames should win. For some reason, though, I think the Avalanche will. Colorado in six.
Sharks vs. Golden Knights: Vegas has had a franchise for two years, and this is already a budding playoff rivalry. Last year, they met in the second round after the Knights just steamrolled LA in the first round. And it was the most competitive series Vegas played en route to winning the Clarence Campbell Bowl (which isn't actually a bowl). That first-year magic wore off a little bit this year, and I'd even go so far as to call Vegas an underdog in this series. But that doesn't mean the Sharks should feel comfortable. Not by a long shot. Because the best players in this series will be the ones wearing black, gold and steel gray. And you know Fleury's going to win at least one game all by himself, too. I'm expecting to see some second-round playoff action in Sin City. Vegas in six.
There have been six different Western Conference champions over the past six seasons. Vegas, San Jose and Nashville are the only teams on that list that made this year's playoffs. Will that trend continue? If it does, we might see a team from Western Canada playing for the Cup. That's not until June, though. We've got three other rounds of playoff hockey before then. Starting on Wednesday night.
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