Saturday, November 10, 2018

Trying a Different Tactic

Remember Bracket Buster Saturday?  It was college basketball's made-for-TV series of games in mid-February where good mid-major teams would play each other late in the season so that one of them would get another quality win on its resume for NCAA Tournament consideration.  It started off as a great idea and it served its purpose for a while, but it eventually became too overblown with so many teams (even bad ones) and conferences participating.

While the concept eventually outlived its usefulness, the original idea behind Bracket Buster Saturday was a good one.  It was designed to help mid-major teams get into the Tournament, and it worked.  For a few years, we saw three or four mid-major teams receiving at-large bids.  That has most certainly changed, and the mid-major conferences have definitely taken notice.  And, with a revival of Bracket Buster Saturday not on the horizon, one conference in particular hopes to be able to do something about that lack of at-large bids on its own.

Conference USA has been one of the biggest victims of all the realignment over the past 15 years.  At its peak, Conference USA boasted Louisville, Cincinnati, Marquette, Memphis, Tulsa and Saint Louis (among others) as members.  But Conference USA members were attractive targets whenever major conferences were looking for new members (when the Big East expanded to 16, they added five former Conference USA schools).  As a result, the conference is a shell of its former self that has changed greatly.  Since 2013 alone, Conference USA has added nine new members.  Of the 11 founding members in 1995, only UAB and Southern Miss remain (Charlotte left for the Atlantic 10 in 2003 but has since returned).

Since the exodus of the marquee programs in 2005-06, Conference USA has become a one-bid league.  In fact, over the past 13 NCAA Tournaments, only four Conference USA teams have received at-large bids, the most recent being Southern Miss in 2012.  Middle Tennessee was one of the more notable snubs from the field last season, when they went 25-8 and beat two SEC teams (including Vanderbilt on the road).  But a first-round loss in the Conference USA Tournament knocked them into the NIT.

Meanwhile, surprise Conference USA Tournament champ Marshall won its first-round game in the NCAA Tournament, marking the fourth straight year in which the Conference USA team won its opening game.  None of those teams was seeded higher than 12th in its region (14, 15, 12, 13).

The powers-that-be at Conference USA feel that the conference has been given the shaft by the NCAA, and they're tired of it.  And they're confident strength of schedule is one of the reasons why.  As a result, they've devised an interesting plan for their conference schedule this season.

Each Conference USA team will play 18 conference games, but they only know the opponents for the first 14 of them right now.  There are 14 teams in Conference USA, so they'll all play everybody else once and a second game against their travel partner.  Then, after those first 14 games, the teams will be grouped based on the standings, and the teams in your group are the ones you'll play down the stretch.

This way, they figure, it'll enhance the strength of schedule for the top teams in the conference.  Because now, instead of just playing whoever, they'll be guaranteed of four quality games down the stretch.  How much their strength of schedule actually improves will be minimal (even the best Conference USA teams don't have high RPIs). 

There's incentive here for the bottom teams, too, since only 12 of the 14 teams qualify for the conference tournament.  Now those teams will battle each other for those last two berths instead of seeing somebody potentially get knocked out simply because they have a more difficult schedule.

Those top teams won't be penalized come conference tournament time, either.  Whatever group you're in when they make the rest of the schedule, that's your seed group.  So, if you're in that top group, you can't be seeded lower than fifth, even if the sixth-place team ends up with a better conference record (which will almost certainly happen).

Of course, there are a ton of logistical hurdles that need to be figured out.  Conference USA teams are very spread out, stretching East to West from Miami to basically Mexico (I see you, UTEP) and as far north as West Virginia.  So, needless to say, there's a lot of travel.  And those travel details are typically arranged well in advance.  But all they know is they're going to have two home and two road games in the final two weeks.  They have no idea where or when.

And the biggest elephant in the room is that there's no guarantee of success.  No one knows whether or not this will lead to Conference USA getting more than just the one NCAA Tournament bid.  There might only be one quality team in Conference USA (which was the case when John Calipari was still at Memphis and they were dominating the league).  If that team wins the conference tournament, there's not even a discussion about an at-large.

I get what they're trying to do, though.  Conference USA remembers the days when they had Louisville and Cincinnati and were regularly receiving multiple NCAA Tournament bids.  Those days are long since over, but they want to remain relevant on the college basketball scene.  They also feel that their teams deserve a chance at an at-large bid.  At least a bigger chance than they've been getting.

Again, whether or not it'll work is anybody's guess.  But Conference USA at least should get some credit for being willing to do something different.  Maybe it'll become a new trend among mid-major conferences who also feel they've been slighted in the at-large conversation.  Come March, we'll find out what the NCAA thinks about this new scheduling strategy.

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