MLB Awards - The Cy Young

Of the eight awards being given out by the BBWAA this week, the one with the most intrigue is definitely NL Cy Young.  For all the talk about Jacob deGrom's wins (or lack thereof) and whether or not they'll cost him in the Cy Young race, we'll finally find out the answer once and for all.  Were the writers able to overlook deGrom's win total?  Or did Max Scherzer join rare company with his third straight Cy Young?

From all the different articles I've seen and various experts weighing in, I think it was probably pretty easy for the writers to look past the fact that deGrom only won 10 games.  Because his other numbers would've made it a slam dunk had he gotten any run support whatsoever.  He allowed four runs in a game ONCE all season (in May!), and didn't give up more than two in his last 25 starts.  Are there some old school writers who won't be able to vote for a starter that pitched the whole season and only had 10 wins?  Perhaps.  Which is their prerogative.  

That whole "wins don't matter" mentality has really taken off in the last few years.  But this isn't a Felix Hernandez-David Price situation.  DeGrom's only competition came from guys who were also on non-playoff teams.  So it'll ultimately come down to who truly was the best pitcher in the National League this season.  And that was Jacob deGrom.

It took me a while to come around on deGrom.  I didn't really sway in his direction until September.  Because until then, I thought Max Scherzer's third straight Cy Young was pretty much locked up.  And it still wouldn't be surprised if he does win.  Because he and deGrom were neck-and-neck in so many statistical categories...except wins, where Scherzer tied for the National League lead.  And he had that sexy 300 in the strikeouts column.

Aaron Nola of the Phillies also had a strong season, and he probably was the third-best pitcher in the National League this season.  If not for the other two, we'd be talking about Nola's year as "historic."  He had 17 wins, ranked second in ERA and held opponents under .200, even if his strikeouts were lower than both deGrom and Scherzer.

Cy Young voting goes five deep, and there are plenty of others who are worthy of lower-ballot consideration.  Miles Mikolas of the Cardinals didn't have the strikeouts of his competition, and his opponents' batting average was much higher.  But!  He went 18-4 and emerged as the ace of the Cardinals' staff.  Then there's the Brewers' Josh Hader, whose otherworldly numbers in relief probably garnered him some MVP votes, too.

For the first time in this awards season, my top three is different than the writers.  DeGrom and Scherzer will go 1-2 in either order.  I have deGrom 1, Scherzer 2.  But beyond that, who knows?  I rounded out my ballot with Hader, Nola and Mikolas.

In the American League, things seem a little more clear cut.  Or do they?  Because first Justin Verlander was running away with it.  Then Chris Sale was.  Then, by the end of the season, Blake Snell became the favorite in a lot of people's eyes.  And, just like Jacob deGrom, the general feeling about Blake Snell is that he's the likely winner, but by no means a guarantee.

Personally, I get a kick out of the fact that Snell is a leading contender for the AL Cy Young.  Because it was his team making all the headlines this season for their idiotic "opener" strategy, yet the only actual starting pitcher on the team is probably going to win the Cy Young!  A member of the Rays, the team trying to prove just the opposite, is actually going to show how valuable a No. 1 starter is.  Again, I'm expecting MVP votes to come Snell's way after his 21-5 season with a dominant 1.89 ERA (in a division that included two 100-win teams).

Or it might go to Verlander, who's been back to his old self since getting traded to Houston.  He pitched like the 2011 AL MVP.  He pitched like that guy who dominated the ALCS and World Series last season.  He struck out 290 batters, had an ERA of 2.52, and earned 16 wins while anchoring that sensational Astros staff that also included fringe Cy Young candidates Gerrit Cole and Charlie Morton.

Meanwhile Corey Kluber continued to be the model of consistency.  Using an analogy that the writers who are obsessed with a certain Angels outfielder can understand, he's like the Mike Trout of pitchers.  At the end of the season, you look up, and the numbers match the back of the baseball card.  It was no different in 2018.  Another 20-win season.  Another 200+ strikeouts.  Another sub-3.00 ERA.  Another Indians playoff appearance.

A healthy Chris Sale sure would've made this race even more interesting.  He was the best pitcher in the American League for two months, starting the All*Star Game for the third year in a row, before going down in August and barely pitching down the stretch.  It's likely what kept him out of the top three.  But, let's not forget, Chris Sale's the one who ended up with a World Series ring after all of the dust was settled.

This was a very top-heavy year in the AL Cy Young race.  Because it's really just those four.  Luis Severino knocked himself out of contention with his up-and-down second half.  James Paxton also faded down the stretch after a tremendous first half.  Trevor Bauer, meanwhile, finished second in ERA, but barely threw enough innings to qualify, only went 12-6, and was the second-best pitcher on his own team.  Then there's A's closer Blake Treinen, he of the sub-1.00 ERA and 100 strikeouts in just 80.1 innings.

My AL Cy Young rankings are just as close at the top as my NL rankings were.  But I'm giving Snell the slight edge over Verlander.  Again I deviate from the three finalists.  Because I've got Sale at three and Kluber at four, with Treinen getting my fifth-place vote.