Friday, October 26, 2018

Outplayed, Outmanaged, Out Everythinged

The Red Sox wouldn't have won the 2004 World Series without Dave Roberts.  And he's doing a good job of making sure they win the 2018 World Series also.  Because for as much as the Dodgers have been outplayed, outpitched, out-everythinged in the series, they've also been outmanaged.  Badly.  And not by the Red Sox.  Roberts has done a great job of outmanaging himself.

I found it amazing that in the 115-year history of the World Series, no team had ever started an entirely right-handed-hitting lineup until the Dodgers did so in Game 1.  Then they did it again in Game 2.

This wasn't the first time that Roberts has done this.  In fact, he did it for most of September and throughout the NLCS.  The Dodgers are perhaps the deepest team in baseball, as evidence by the fact that they can start two completely different lineups based on whether it's a right-handed or left-handed starter.  Roberts can take advantage of his team's versatility and put them pretty much anywhere on the field, too (the Dodgers used four different second basemen in Game 2 alone).

Except the problem with this strategy was exposed in the first two games.  It works in the National League, where you can exploit matchups and use pinch hitters or make double switches based on situation.  When you have a DH, though, you have no reason to empty your bench by the seventh inning.  This is the World Series, you don't have to make sure everybody gets to play!  (The Dodgers have 13 position players on the roster, and they've all had at least one plate appearance in each game.)

Especially when you're sitting guys who, lefty-on-lefty or not, should be in the lineup everyday.  Cody Bellinger was the Rookie of the Year last season and MVP of the NLCS.  He has three at-bats in the World Series!  So does Max Muncy, who hit more home runs per at bat than anyone else in the Majors.  In fact, the Dodgers hit the second-most home runs in baseball this season...and they left their top four home run hitters (Muncy, Bellinger, Joc Pederson and Yasmani Grandal) on the bench to start each of the first two games!

Instead of Bellinger and Muncy, Roberts started Kike Hernandez and David Freese.  Hernandez hasn't gotten a hit since, it seems, last year's World Series.  Freese, the World Series her for the Cardinals seven years ago who you didn't even realize was still playing, does have three hits in the series.  But he shouldn't be hitting third!  And Freese hasn't exactly played a Gold Glove-caliber first base either.  In the first inning Game 1, he let a Mookie Betts popup drop, and Betts eventually singled before scoring the first run of the series.

Let's not forget, too, that the Dodgers had an extra person in the lineup.  Yet they still kept Bellinger and Muncy on the bench, opting instead to DH Matt Kemp and keep Yasiel Puig, who doesn't hit lefties well for some reason, in right field.  Although, I actually agreed with that decision.  Puig is far superior defensively (he's also the only real right fielder on the roster) and Kemp's likely only to hit anyway, so it makes sense to just insert him in the DH slot and mix-and-match everywhere else.

You want to sit Pederson against the lefties, fine.  He didn't start when Keuchel pitched in last year's World Series, either.  And he's a guy you can have pinch hit for basically anyone.  Grandal not starting didn't raise any eyebrows, either.  He looked like Gary Sanchez behind the plate during the two NLCS games he did start, so it's reasonable to think Austin Barnes had taking the catching job anyway.

But there's no reason that Bellinger and Muncy should've been kept out of the lineup.  Especially Bellinger, who might be the second-best all-around player on the team behind Manny Machado (and played 162 of the Dodgers' 163 games this season, too).  And if he's going to be in center field, Muncy should be at first base.

Then there's his pitching changes  Evidently the Dodgers didn't use up all of the minutes in their plan calling the bullpen during the NLCS.  Because they made plenty of pitching changes in Fenway, too, using five pitchers in Game 1 and six in Game 2.

Not all of those pitching moves worked out, though.  Especially in Game 1.  The Dodgers tied the game in the top of the fifth, then Kershaw comes back out for the bottom of the fifth and gives up back-to-back hits to Betts and Beninteindi.  So Ryan Madson comes in, and he promptly walks the bases loaded before allowing both inherited runners to score.  Same situation in Game 2.  Same pitcher.  Same batter in Steve Pearce.  This time Madson walks him on four pitches to force in the tying run before giving up the game-winning two-run single to J.D. Martinez.

Believe it or not, those weren't even the worst pitching changes Roberts made in Fenway.  No, that was in the seventh inning of Game 1.  The Dodgers had just cut Boston's lead to 5-4 and Pedro Baez is throwing gas.  He'd intentionally walked Martinez and struck out the other two batters he'd faced.  But, with two on and two out and Rafael Devers coming up, Roberts takes Baez out and brings in lefty Alex Wood.  Alex Cora counters by having Eduardo Nunez pinch hit, and he promptly launches a three-run blast over the Monster to effectively end the game.  

Either Roberts didn't anticipate Cora going to Nunez after Roberts brought in the lefty or he liked the Wood vs. Nunez matchup better than Baez vs. Devers.  Either way, he was wrong.  Sometimes the best pitching changes are the ones you don't make.  (And don't forget how badly he screwed up his pitching changes in last year's World Series, too.)

With the Red Sox starting right-handers Rick Porcello and Nathan Eovaldi in the next two games, Roberts will finally do something he should've done all along.  Start Bellinger, Muncy and Pederson!  

And if the Dodgers do win these next two games, all of a sudden the series is tied, with Kershaw pitching at home in Game 5.  So, there's still a chance they can make this a series.  But the only way they can is if they actually put their best players on the field at the start of the game (not in the sixth inning when they're already losing).  Winning four of the next five against this Red Sox team is a big enough challenge without having to overcome their own manager's poor decisions, as well.

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