Tuesday, October 2, 2018

NHL Season Preview

With the start of the baseball playoffs, it's so easy for the start of the NHL season to get lost in the mix.  But here we are.  Alex Ovechkin needs to stop chugging beer out of the Cup and get down to the work of defending it.  Which is something Washington is completely capable of doing.

Also, how cool is it that the Oilers and Devils are starting the season in Sweden?  The Panthers and Jets will play in Helsinki next month, too.  The NHL is the most international of the four major sports, which is why events like the World Cup of Hockey (or *cough* the Olympics *cough*) are so competitive.  NHL players who've been eliminated from the playoffs go to Europe for the World Championships every year, but actual regular season NHL games are something different entirely.  Oilers-Devils isn't a bad matchup, either.

Anyway, now that I'm off that tangent, time to look at what's ahead for the 2018-19 season.  And I think the league is wide open this year.  I know that's a common refrain at the beginning of any season.  But this year it really rings true.  Because I don't think there's one dominant team that's going to just steamroll through everybody.  There are some teams that will likely struggle and some that will almost certainly make the playoffs.  But the difference between those playoff teams is so minute that it really is anybody's Cup to win.

So let's start with the defending champs in DC then.  It should've figured that the one year we don't expect anything from the Capitals is the year they'd actually win.  And they've got all the pieces to do it again.  At the very least, we'll see the Capitals and Penguins stage their usual battle for Metropolitan Division supremacy.  I give the edge to Washington, but it's a very slight one.  And you know the Penguins didn't like giving up their throne.  I expect a bounce back year from Pittsburgh.

Columbus and Philadelphia both joined them in the playoffs last season, but the Blue Jackets and Flyers will definitely be tested for those spots behind the two top dogs.  Personally, I think Columbus is slightly better than Philadelphia, so I'd say the Blue Jackets are safe.  I can't say the same about the Flyers, though.  Because they'll need to hold off both the Devils, another 2018 playoff team, and the improved teams in the Atlantic.

The Islanders snagged Stanley Cup-winning coach Barry Trotz away from the Capitals.  But they also lost their best player in John Tavares.  As a result, I think they'll be on the outside looking in.  As will the Rangers and Hurricanes.  Carolina isn't that bad.  They're just in the wrong division.  Give the Rangers another year or two and they'll be right back battling it out with Pittsburgh and Washington.

I think the three best teams in the Eastern Conference are in the Atlantic, though.  And I'm talking about the three that had the highest point-totals last season--Tampa Bay, Boston and Toronto.  Rangers South still packs a lot of star power, and Boston has some of the best talent in hockey.  But it's the Maple Leafs that are really intriguing.  They signed Tavares because he has the same goal they do.  They badly want the Cup, and they're going all-in.  They just might be good enough to do it, too.

Expect a bounce-back year from Montreal, too.  There's no way the Canadiens are as good as they were in 2016-17.  There's also no way they're as bad as they were much of last season.  It's somewhere in the middle, which should have them in the mix for one of the wild cards.  They're the only Atlantic Division team I can say that about.  Because the Panthers, Senators, Red Wings and Sabres aren't very good.  I do think Ottawa and Detroit will be much improved, though.

Out west, the story of last season, of course, was the Golden Knights.  What can Vegas do for an encore after the greatest inaugural season for an expansion team in sports history?  Well, it sure doesn't seem like they plan on slowing down, seeing as they added another legit star in Max Pacioretty, who came over in a trade from Montreal.

As usual, California will provide us with the remaining playoff teams out of the Pacific Division.  The Ducks have put together great regular seasons followed by playoff disappointment for a few years in a row now.  And the Sharks played for the Cup not too long ago.  San Jose still has many of those same pieces, so there's no reason not to think they won't be in the mix again.

Of the three California teams, the Kings seem to be the most susceptible to being left out of the playoff party.  That's because Edmonton will be in the conversation for a wild card, and I can even see the Oilers cracking that Duck-Shark-Knight stranglehold at the top of the division.  Calgary isn't bad, but they're not a playoff team.  Vancouver doesn't even have the Sedin brothers anymore, and Arizona still has a hockey team (for now).

In the Central is where it gets really interesting.  You have a Winnipeg team that made it to the Conference Final last year, a Nashville team that played for the Cup two years ago, a Minnesota team that may be better than both of them, and a Blackhawks team that somehow missed the playoffs last season.  Don't forget about St. Louis, either.  This division isn't going to be separated by much.  Because the Avalanche and Stars aren't exactly slouches, either.  Yet somebody's gotta finish last.

Last season was either the start of something big in Winnipeg or just a flash in the pan.  I'm still not sure which.  I do think the Jets will return to the playoffs, but, like the Golden Knights, everything just went right for them last season.  Which is why I like Nashville to repeat as division champs.  The Predators are loaded up for another deep run after winning the Western Conference title in 2016-17 and the President's Trophy last season.

You can take what I just said about the Jets and replace "Winnipeg" with "Minnesota."  Because I think it's the exact same story with the Wild.  I can see them finishing with 100 points.  I can see them finishing last.  Chicago I can't see finishing last, however.  The Blackhawks are old, which could be problematic.  But if they stay healthy, they're definitely one of the eight best teams in the West.  And if you let a team with as much playoff experience as Chicago has get into the postseason, all bets are off.

No, I didn't really say much of anything you can take to the bank there.  That's exactly the point I was making, though.  Especially out west, these teams are so tight that it's so tough to separate them.  But I'm gonna give it a try anyway.

My playoff teams in the Atlantic are Tampa Bay, Boston and Toronto.  I've got Washington, Pittsburgh and Columbus in the Metropolitan.  And my Eastern Conference wild cards are the Devils and Canadiens.  As for the West, I'll take Nashville, Winnipeg and Minnesota in the Central, and Anaheim, San Jose and Vegas in the Pacific, with Chicago and Edmonton as my wild cards.  Give me Tampa Bay vs. Nashville in the Stanley Cup Final before the Lightning do their best Alex Ovechkin impressions next summer.  Because for all the good teams there are in the NHL, Tampa Bay is the best.

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