Sunday, February 4, 2018

The Super Bowl Pick

Before getting into the game itself, a fun fact about the Super Bowl that's just too good not to share.  As NBC has repeatedly reminded us, they have both the Super Bowl and the Olympics this year.  This is the third time that the Super Bowl and Winter Olympics are on the same network in the same year.  It also happened in 1988 (ABC) and 1992 (CBS)...which was also the only other time the game was in Minnesota!

But before NBC's fun in Korea starts, there's some business to take care of in Minneapolis.  And we've got a rematch of Super Bowl XXXIX, with a situation very similar to the one we had 13 years ago.  The Patriots looking for their third title in four years against an underdog Eagles team looking for its first Super Bowl (and first NFL championship since 1960).

You can't help but be impressed with what the Eagles have done in their first two playoff games.  Even though they were the 1-seed, they were the underdog in both games.  Then they went and completely shut down the Atlanta offense before totally dominating Minnesota in the NFC Championship Game.

Of course, the Patriots present a far different challenge than either the Falcons or Vikings.  But Philadelphia has proven that we can't take them lightly.  They've also embraced the underdog role, so I don't think it bothers them at all that nobody thinks they're going to win.

It'd be a mistake to count them out, too.  They looked lost in the final couple games of the regular season, which is why nobody had any confidence in them heading into the playoffs.  But, they took advantage of their bye week and revamped their offense to suit Nick Foles' strengths.  And it worked!  Now, they're gonna need to adjust again.  Except this time, the adjustments will need to be on the defensive side.  Because Matt Ryan and Case Keenum aren't Tom Brady.

New England actually fell behind 20-10 in the AFC Championship Game.  As soon as Jacksonville kicked that field goal to go up 20-10, I said to myself, "The Patriots are going to win 24-20."  Sure enough, that was the final score.  Which is why it drove me nuts when everyone was acting so surprised that they won.  "Can you believe they did it again?"  Yes!  They do it all the freakin' time!  Why would you expect it to be any different?

Last year, of course, Brady once again showed his brilliance, leading that comeback from 28-3 down against Atlanta.  And that game, as well as the Jacksonville game, are prime examples of why it's so hard to beat the Patriots.  If you get a lead, you need to keep doing what you were doing.  You can't take your foot off the gas pedal.  Otherwise, you're playing right into Brady's hands.  Meanwhile, if they get ahead of you, your chances of coming back are slim to none.

Which puts the Eagles in a real catch-22 situation.  Their defense will have the unenviable task of trying to contain Brady, while their offense will be tasked both with keeping him off the field and putting up enough points to give Philly a fighting chance.  And the Eagles likely can't rely on too many points coming from the defense.  Not when the QB on the other side is a three-time Super Bowl MVP who's playing in his eighth Super Bowl and looking for his sixth ring.

To say Brady's been here before would be a tremendous understatement.  The Patriots's five Super Bowl titles have come by a combined total of 19 points (and the two losses to the Giants were by a combined seven).  Last year was their largest margin of victory...and that game went to overtime!  So, what we know is that it's likely going to be a close game, and it's likely going to finish the same way as the others (except the two against the Giants).

So, my pick is the obvious one.  Eli Manning and Tom Coughlin aren't on the other sideline.  They're the only ones who've figured out how to beat the Patriots on Super Bowl Sunday.  And, let's not forget how New England has won its last two titles.  The Seahawks made a dumb decision at the 1-yard line that led to a game-clinching interception, and the Falcons stupidly took a sack that knocked them out of field goal range and allowed Brady to march down for the tying score.

Philadelphia needs to play the perfect game to win.  And they need to play it for 60 minutes.  That's where the Patriots get you.  They never stop, so you can't either.

Bottom line, as sick as all of us are of seeing the Patriots win, we've also come to expect it.  So why would anyone think this year would be any different?  Thirteen years ago, they beat the Eagles for their third Super Bowl title in four seasons.  More than a decade later, they'll become the second team with six Lombardi Trophies by beating the Eagles for their third Super Bowl title in four seasons.  And, for the sake of symmetry, let's say it'll be the same score, too.  Patriots 24, Eagles 21.

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