The PyeongChang Olympics have started, and we're just hours away from the first medals being awarded. For the first time, there are more than 100 events in a Winter Games (102 to be exact), and many of the new events are in freestyle skiing and snowboarding, so you'd figure that'll help to increase the medal total for the United States.
I do think the U.S. will come away with quite a haul in the new events, but I'm not going overboard with my expectations. I'd rather undersell my prediction for American success than oversell it. There are the easy gold medals to predict like the ones from Chloe Kim and Mikaela Shiffrin, but I'm seeing a lot of silver and bronze, too. The American total will be well over 20, and it may even approach 30. Top five? Yes. Number one? Probably not.
They mentioned during the Opening Ceremony that the last time the Winter Olympics were in Asia, the United States won 13 medals in Nagano, then jumped all the way to 34 four years later in Salt Lake City. There were several reasons for that, one of which was the new training facilities now available to American athletes. Another was that the new events are ones Americans do well at.
That host country boost is something that you always consider at an Olympics, and it'll be no different here. We know South Korea is going to do well in short track speed skating, but where else? Well, they've got the top ranked athlete in men's skeleton, so I think that's a real possibility. We could see some Korean medals in long track, too. Should we see any in another sport, that would be a real surprise.
Meanwhile, I think there's a real chance that both New Zealand and Belgium could come away with gold medals. We could also see Hungary win its first Winter medal since 1980 and Spain take its first since 1992. Liechtenstein is the only country to have won medals in the Winter Games but not the Summer Games. Their last was in 1988, but we could see them get one in alpine skiing.
Russia's technically not in PyeongChang, but still has the fourth-largest team. As a result, OAR will still come away with plenty of medals. I predict somewhere in the 15-20 range, which would easily put them in the top 10 of the medal standings.
As for who's going to end up atop the table, you've gotta look towards the usual suspects. And by that I mean Norway and Germany. Canada has established itself as a powerhouse, too. In fact, the Canadians could be right up there with the Norwegians and Germans not only for the most overall medals, but for the most golds, too.
My top 10 medals standings includes everyone you'd expect. You know the Dutch will clean up in speed skating (although probably not to the extent they did in Sochi), and traditional powers like Austria, France, Italy and Switzerland will get their regular share of medals. The interesting thing to watch will be where the Asian countries end up. I'm not just talking about our current Korean hosts. I'm talking about the Chinese, the hosts of our next Games, too. I see both of them just outside the top 10. Same with Japan. Although I do see the Japanese winning a bunch of golds.
Overall, I've got 31 countries ending up with places on the Olympic podium. Norway finishes in the top spot in both total and gold medals, with Germany and Canada right behind. I've got the United States in fourth, with the Russians rounding out the top five. Here's my full top 10:
- Norway 14-14-11 (39)
- Germany 13-12-9 (34)
- Canada 12-10-12 (34)
- United States 6-12-7 (25)
- Russia 4-7-7 (18)
- France 8-4-4 (16)
- Sweden 4-9-2 (15)
- Austria 4-5-5 (14)
- Italy 3-5-6 (14)
- Switzerland 4-4-4 (12)
South Korea I've got just outside the top 10. I have the hosts finishing with 11 total medals, although eight golds would tie France for fourth in that category. Japan is the only other country I have reaching double-figures in total medals. I've got 10 Japanese medals, six of them gold.
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