Tuesday, November 14, 2017

Managing to Make the Playoffs

Unlike the ultra-suspenseful votes for the AL and NL Rookie of the Year, it's at least somewhat up in the air who's going to win the Manager of the Year awards.  Well, at least in the National League it's going to be a tight vote between a pair of NL West rivals that met in the Wild Card Game.  In the AL, you could easily make an argument for any of the three finalists (and a certain fired manager of a team that wears Pinstripes), but I think one clearly stands above the other two.

Most teams that lose Game 7 of the World Series (in extra innings) have a bit of a letdown the following season.  Not so for Terry Francona and the Indians.  Cleveland was even better in 2017, notching an AL-best 102 wins and putting together a ridiculous 22-game winning streak.

Like Cleveland, Houston was supposed to be good.  I just don't think anyone figured the Astros would be this good.  But they got off to a hot start and never looked back, winning the AL West by 21 games.  Yeah, the Astros are loaded with talent, but they don't win 101 games without the leadership of A.J. Hinch, which was on full display in the World Series.  The votes were cast before the World Series, so the Astros' title run doesn't count, but Hinch was as responsible for their success as Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa.

The fact that Joe Girardi isn't even a finalist relieves a potentially awkward situation (although, it would've been the second time that he won Manager of the Year and got fired in the same year).  I'd actually rank Girardi's managing job in 2017 above that of Francona's.  The Yankees were supposed to be a year or two away.  Instead, they went all the way to Game 7 of the ALCS against the eventual champions.

My choice in the American League, though, is the Twins' Paul Molitor.  Cleveland and Houston were supposed to be good, and the Yankees didn't completely catch everyone off guard.  Minnesota did.  The Twins won 59 games in 2016.  They were one of the worst teams in baseball.  This year they won 85 and made the playoffs (comfortably) with a largely unheralded cast that wasn't much different.  Molitor's a Hall of Fame player, and he's proving to be just as good a manager.

I'd be surprised if it isn't Molitor receiving the hardware.  He's the most deserving.  In fact, if I had a ballot, it would look like this: 1. Molitor, 2. Hinch, 3. Girardi.

Over in the National League, we know the Manager of the Year is coming out of the NL West.  And this one's got a little more competition.  Between Torey Lovullo and Bud Black. 

Dave Roberts, last year's winner, managed his way to a World Series loss (which doesn't count for Manager of the Year, so it won't be held against him).  But he also led the Dodgers to the best record in the Majors, including an insane 43-7 stretch and another 12-6 stretch to end the season right after they lost 16 of 17.  And did I mention how many players the Dodgers used this season?

He won't win for a second year in a row, though.  Because the jobs done by Lovullo and Black were simply better.  The Dodgers were supposed to be this good.  Arizona and Colorado weren't.  Yet they ended up meeting in the Wild Card Game.  Black's won this award before, after leading the Padres to second place and 90 wins in 2010.  Lovullo, meanwhile, lived up to all the potential everyone saw in him in his first season as a Major League manager.

Black took a Rockies team with all of its regular built-in challenges and won 87 games, as Colorado made the playoffs for the first time in a decade.  The Diamondbacks, though.  That really came out of pretty much nowhere, and Lovullo deserves a lot of credit for that.  Arizona flipped its record from 69-93 to 93-69, which was tied for the fifth-best record in baseball.  Both teams had star power, but with Colorado's lineup, you kinda figured they'd eventually be a contender.  As for the Diamondbacks, they had Paul Goldschmidt and not much else.

That's why my pick for NL Manager of the Year is Torey Lovullo.  The rookie manager pushed all the right buttons in leading Arizona to its first winning record and playoff appearance since 2011.  Is it as impressive as what Molitor did with the Twins?  No.  But it's just as unexpected.

A lot of people view Roberts as the favorite, but everyone knew the Dodgers would be good.  They didn't anticipate it from the Diamondbacks.  And the biggest difference with that team from last year to this year was its manager.  That's why my vote goes to Lovullo.  Black second, Roberts third, Milwaukee's Craig Counsell (my midseason choice) fourth.

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