Sunday, November 19, 2017

Football Picks, Week 11

Thanksgiving is next week, which means the NFL season is starting to enter the home stretch.  Pretty soon, we're going to see playoff races appearing on the screen along with the time and score graphics for every game.  And speaking of playoff races, we're going to get some clarity in both conferences over the next couple of weeks.  There are a lot of teams bunched up in the standings, but they're all going to play each other in the coming weeks, so, at the very least, we'll figure out the tiebreakers as those teams prepare for January.

Lions (5-4) at Bears (3-6): Detroit-The wild card battle in the NFC features about five teams and is likely going to go down to the wire.  The Lions are one of those teams in the mix, but they're currently on the outside looking in.  Detroit needs every win it can get, especially in the games its supposed to win.  And this one falls into that category.  The Lions know that in order to have any shot at making the playoffs, they have to go into their Thanksgiving matchup with Minnesota at 6-4, not 5-5.

Jaguars (6-3) at Browns (0-9): Jacksonville-Ordinarily this would be the game circled on the Browns' calendar as the one they might actually win.  Not this year, though.  Jacksonville is currently holding on to a wild card, and the Jaguars can move into sole possession of first place with a win thanks to the Titans' loss in Pittsburgh on Thursday.  Will Cleveland keep it close?  I think so.  The Browns have been more competitive at home.  Will they stay ahead of the 49ers and Giants in the race for the No. 1 pick?  Probably.

Ravens (4-5) at Packers (5-4): Green Bay-Brett Hundley just might've saved the Packers season last week.  They looked lost without Aaron Rodgers...until Hundley led them to a win last week in Chicago.  Now Green Bay's right back in the playoff discussion.  The Ravens know that in order for them to be involved in any sort of playoff discussion, they need to go into Lambeau and win.  Easier said than done, even though Baltimore is the Vegas favorite in this game for some reason.

Buccaneers (3-6) at Dolphins (4-5): Tampa Bay-This game was supposed to be in Week 1, but Hurricane Irma had other plans.  So instead, the Dolphins and Bucs lost their bye week.  Which, frankly, they could both use.  Miami played three straight prime time games for some reason and lost them all, getting crushed twice.  Tampa Bay hasn't been much better.  But they're at least coming off a win, even if it is over the Jets.  I don't know how the Dolphins are going to score, though, so I'll take Tampa.

Rams (7-2) at Vikings (7-2): Rams-When was the last time the best game of the week was a regional early game?  If this was FOX's doubleheader week, I'm sure they would've moved this one to 4:00, but alas, the most important game so far in the NFC playoff race will be seen only in Minnesota and Southern California.  Which is a shame.  Because the Rams are incredibly fun to watch, and the Vikings are just a good, solid team.  The Rams' next two games are against the Vikings and Saints, so that three-way tie at 7-2 will finally be settled.  LA needs to split to have any chance of getting a bye (not to mention holding off Seattle).  I think they can win both, though.  Their offense translates well anywhere, and I actually like the matchup against the Vikings' defense.

Redskins (4-5) at Saints (7-2): New Orleans-Why are people still not talking about the Saints?  Seven in a row and counting.  They absolutely smacked the Bills last week.  On the road.  Against a defense that isn't as bad as Drew Brees made them look.  Washington's defense is slightly better than Buffalo's.  But Drew Brees at home is something different entirely.  The Saints keep rolling.  They go marching on to 8-2.

Chiefs (6-3) at Giants (1-8): Kansas City-I don't think this is what the NFL and CBS were intending when they set this one up as the "marquee" early game in their doubleheader week.  The Chiefs have seen their lead in the AFC West become a little more comfortable not because of anything they've done, but because the Raiders and Broncos keep losing.  The Giants keep losing, too.  Last week's embarrassment in San Francisco was by far the lowest point in a dismal season.  Ben McAdoo won't be fired during the season, but he'd better start brushing up that resume.  Because come January 1, he'll be looking for employment elsewhere.  Oh, yeah, the Giants are unlikely to be favored in any game the rest of the way, so 1-15 is a real possibility.

Cardinals (4-5) at Texans (3-6): Arizona-Two teams that have had disappointing seasons meet in Houston.  Fun fact: the NHL is now considering Houston for its inevitable 32nd team.  Anyway, that has nothing to do with anything other than the fact I saw it the other day and found it interesting.  As for the game, I still don't know what type of team the Texans are supposed to be without DeShaun Watson and J.J. Watt.  While they search for their identity, the Cardinals are gonna come flying into Houston and get to .500.

Bills (5-4) at Chargers (3-6): Buffalo-Despite two straight losses, including a thorough beat down by the Saints last week, the Bills still currently hold the second wild card in the AFC.  The hard part of their schedule is coming up, though, making this week even more vital.  New England twice and Kansas City still await.  In order to avoid facing a must-win situation against those heavyweights, they need to win the games they're supposed to.  Like this one.

Bengals (3-6) at Broncos (3-6): Denver-It's funny.  The Giants are perhaps the only team in the NFL that's a bigger mess than Denver, yet it's the Giants' only win of the season (on a Sunday night at Mile High) that got the Broncos into this funk.  Cincinnati's also mired in a 3-6 hole, so something's gotta give.  With the game at Mile High, I'm leaning in a Denver direction.

Patriots (7-2) vs. Raiders (4-5): New England-Nueva Inglaterra did a very smart thing in preparation for this game.  They were just in Denver, so instead of going back East, they just stayed at altitude all week in advance of their matchup with the Raiders in Mexico City.  Sure, you have teams stay on the West Coast all week when they have back-to-back games out there, so this isn't a completely out-of-left-field idea, but it's still just another example of one of those things that make the Patriots the Patriots.  Evidently, it doesn't matter what country they're playing in, Robert Kraft and Bill Belichick are still going to out think you.

Eagles (8-1) at Cowboys (5-4): Philadelphia-Finally a Sunday night game that doesn't seem so completely random!  In fact, we're getting a Sunday night staple.  One of those classic NFC East rivalries.  Week two of Ezekiel Elliott suspension, which now at least has some clarity.  And it comes as the Cowboys are about to start a vital three-game homestand.  They're three games behind the Eagles, so they know that a Philadelphia win all but eliminates any chance they might have of repeating as division champions.  I think we'll see the Cowboys shifting their attention to the wild card, though.  Because, as we saw last week, they don't have a running game without Zeke.  It'll be interesting to hear what Tony Romo thinks of everything when he does the Cowboys-Chargers game on Thanksgiving.

Falcons (5-4) at Seahawks (6-3): Seattle-Every time we think we're gonna see the Seahawks from the last couple of years show up, something crazy happens.  Like last Thursday night.  They beat the Cardinals in those hideous fluorescent green uniforms, but lost two members of the Legion of Boom in the process.  Sounds like the perfect time for Atlanta to take advantage.  Although, the Falcons are still having trouble scoring.  And even a Seattle defense that's missing a few keys guys is still formidable.  Especially with the 12th Man going nuts on a Monday night.

Thursday Night: Pittsburgh (Win)

This Week: 1-0
Last Week: 9-5
Overall: 89-58

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