Sunday, October 8, 2017

Football Picks, Week 5

It's Week 5.  We're through a quarter of the NFL season, and we still haven't really learned much.  There are unexpected teams with good records and many of the teams we thought would be good are struggling.  This is generally where we start to see where teams really are, though, as they shake off the rust from not actually playing that much in the preseason.  We also start to cycle through the byes, so teams (except for the Dolphins and Bucs) will be getting a week off to rest up and recover from injuries.  That's only going to improve the quality of play moving forward, too.

Bills (3-1) at Bengals (1-3): Buffalo-No one picked the Bills in either of their last two games, but they knocked off the Falcons and Broncos and moved into first place in the AFC East.  Since they're playing the Bengals this week, people might actually pick them, although most Bills fans would probably prefer if they didn't.  Either way, I see them pulling it out and going to 4-1.

Jets (2-2) at Browns (0-4): Jets-Why is this game on FOX?  I still don't understand this "cross-flexing" thing, and I highly doubt FOX was banging down the NFL's door begging to get the Jets-Browns game.  (Yes, the Giants are playing the Chargers, but putting that game on FOX would've made more sense, especially since they moved Seahawks-Rams to CBS, which means both LA teams are on the same network for no apparent reason.)  Anyway, I'm taking the Jets in this one.  Meanwhile, the New York-Cleveland game that people actually care about is Sunday night.

Panthers (3-1) at Lions (3-1): Detroit-I've been saying for a few weeks that I think Detroit is one of the best teams in football.  We'll get to see it this week against a Panthers team that went into Foxboro last week and beat the Patriots.  Can they follow it up with a victory in Detroit?  We'll have to see, but I'm inclined to think the Lions will get it done.

49ers (0-4) at Colts (1-3): Indianapolis-They unveiled the Peyton Manning statue outside Lucas Oil Stadium, so there's a lot of pomp and circumstance surrounding this game.  It was a smart one to choose for that, because now people are at least somewhat excited for a 49ers-Colts game.  And for Indianapolis, San Francisco is essentially a homecoming opponent.  Even with Peyton's "successor" nowhere to be seen.

Titans (2-2) at Dolphins (1-2): Tennessee-Miami finally gets to play a home game!  It's the Dolphins fourth game in a fourth different city in two different countries.  They've turned into the NFL's traveling team.  There were no points to be found in New York or London.  Maybe they left them all at home.  Or, more than likely, they're gonna need to rely on their defense to win games.  Tennessee won't have Mariota, but even without him, the Dolphins have shown me nothing to indicate they'll beat them.

Chargers (0-4) at Giants (0-4): Giants-Somebody's finally going to get their first win!  To be honest, these are probably the two best 0-4 teams.  They've both lost close ones late the last couple of weeks (for the Giants, it was back-to-back last-second field goals).  Something's gotta give.  Since the Giants are at home and the New York media will be even more all over them if they lose, they'd better get it together.  That seems more likely than the Chargers traveling cross country and winning a 1:00 game.

Cardinals (2-2) at Eagles (3-1): Philadelphia-Raise your hand if you had the Eagles at 3-1.  After handily winning their opener, they held their own in Kansas City before winning a pair of nail-biters against winless teams.  So, yes, it might be a bit of a mirage.  Or it might be that they're finding ways to win.  Either way, you've gotta like their odds to make it 4-1 this week.  It's Arizona's third 1:00 game already, and they lost in Detroit before barely beating Indianapolis.  Early games and the Cardinals don't exactly mesh well.

Jaguars (2-2) at Steelers (3-1): Pittsburgh-Was the Bears game the Steelers' annual random loss?  It sure looks like it.  Because they were the Steelers again last week against Baltimore.  Jacksonville, meanwhile, might as well move to London, seeing as they came back Stateside last week, were actually a road favorite, and got blown out by the Jets.  The Steelers are actually a good team.  Do you really see them losing this one?

Ravens (2-2) at Raiders (2-2): Oakland-Oakland has lost two straight, but those were both on the road.  They return home this week for a matchup with the Ravens, who are looking to snap a two-game losing streak of their own.  And their travel has taken them from one side of the Atlantic to the other, and now to the West Coast.  That's a brutal string.  One I see them going 0-3 on.

Seahawks (2-2) at Rams (3-1): Rams-The Rams are 3-1 for the second consecutive year.  Of course, last year, they only won one game the rest of the season and finished 4-12.  The difference this season is that they're the highest-scoring team in the league thru four weeks.  Seattle, meanwhile, has had its struggles.  Even the Seahawks' defense isn't strong enough to shut the Rams down totally.  Especially not the current incarnation.

Packers (3-1) at Cowboys (2-2): Green Bay-Which Dallas Cowboys team will show up?  They look awesome one week, then lay an egg the next.  This is an odd week, so if they follow their pattern, this one should be a win.  One problem, though.  They're playing the Packers.  Green Bay went into Dallas in the playoffs last year and won, and the Packers are better this year.  I think they do it again.

Chiefs (4-0) at Texans (2-2): Kansas City-All of those undefeated teams have been falling by the wayside...except Kansas City.  The Chiefs had a tough one against the Redskins, but still managed to pull it out.  That's what good teams do.  I don't think they'll have any easier of a time in Houston.  But I think they'll manage to pull it out again.

Vikings (2-2) at Bears (1-3): Minnesota-Chicago has given up on Mike Glennon and turned the quarterback job over to Mitchell Trubisky.  That's not surprising.  But it'll take a whole lot more than a new quarterback to fix what's wrong with the Bears.  They'll probably be better on Monday night, but a win over Minnesota is a stretch.

Thursday Night: New England (Win)

This Week: 1-0
Last Week: 10-6
Overall: 41-23

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