Tuesday, October 24, 2017

Astros and Dodgers

This was the actual cover of Sports Illustrated on June 30, 2014.  When they declared that, I'm not sure how much they actually believed it.  But here we are, three years and three months later, and they're four games away from being right.  

Except I don't think SI was banking on the Astros running into the juggernaut that is the 2017 Los Angeles Dodgers, a team that's been on a mission since February and is four games away from achieving its sole objective for this season.  The Dodgers look nothing like the team that had a 1-15 stretch in late August/early September.  What they do look like is the one that, over a different 50-game stretch this season, went 43-7.

If you thought last year's World Series was good, this one has all the makings of being even better.  Because we actually have the two best teams in Baseball.  Houston was the best team in the AL for four months until an August swoon, while people were talking about the Dodgers as one of those historically good teams until their bad stretch cost them any shot at the all-time wins record.  

They both survived their rough patch and have played some of their best baseball in October, and the result is the first World Series between 100-win teams since 1970.  It's also the first World Series between teams that used to be in the same division (of course, that's only possible if Houston or Milwaukee wins the pennant, but still).  So, even though they're in different leagues now, there's plenty of history between the Dodgers and Astros.

We've got a ton of stars in this World Series, too.  Houston, of course, has Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa and 2014 cover boy George Springer, as well as Dallas Keuchel and Justin Verlander.  The Dodgers, meanwhile, have Corey Seager and Justin Turner and Yasiel Puig, as well as that guy who deserves to be in the World Series more than any of the other 49 players on these two teams.  Clayton Kershaw has been the best pitcher in the game for five years.  Now he finally gets to pitch in a World Series.

I just hope the moment doesn't get the best of Kershaw (whose playoff struggles seem to be behind him).  Although, he's as big game as a pitcher can get.  So is Verlander, who, remarkably is 0-3 with a 7.20 ERA in his World Series career.  Verlander, however, has been reinvigorated since his trade to Houston.  They got him for moments like this.  Except he needs to pitch like the Verlander that was ALCS MVP rather than the Verlander that pitched for the Tigers in the 2006 and 2012 Fall Classics.

Starting pitching is going to be a key in this series, especially for Houston.  The Astros don't trust their bullpen at all, as evidence by the fact that they used Game 4 starter Lance McCullers, Jr., to close out the Yankees in Game 7.  The Dodgers, meanwhile, have no issues going to their bullpen, and we can probably expect to see plenty of Kenley Jansen in this series.

Let's not forget the importance of this year's rule change giving home field to the team with the better record, which is the 104-win Dodgers.  Home field advantage has been such a factor this postseason, as evidence by that ALCS where the home team won every game of a seven-game series for just the fifth time in history.  In fact, home teams are a combined 23-8 thru the LCSes (although, excluding the wild card games, the ALCS is the only series clinched at home).

Both of these teams are undefeated at home this postseason, so I think that home field advantage could end up being significant.  Are we looking at a repeat of 1987, 1991 or 2001?  Probably not.  But if we get to a Game 7, it's going to be a factor.  Especially with that 5 p.m. local time in LA.  The Dodgers are used to playing at that time.  The Astros aren't.

Houston obviously needs to steal one at Dodger Stadium, which means they really need the ALCS Verlander to show up (he'll be pitching Games 2 and 6 in LA).  And I like Darvish going in Game 3.  Because the guy who spent his entire career until a few months ago with the Rangers certainly isn't going to be phased by that crowd at Minute Maid Park.  The Dodgers got Darvish for the same reason the Astros got Verlander.

For the Astros to have any chance, though, they need their offense to actually show up on the road.  It didn't at Fenway Park.  It really didn't at Yankee Stadium.  Although, Dodger Stadium is a pitcher's park, so if Keuchel and Verlander do what they did in Games 1 and 2 of the ALCS in the World Series, they might be able to get away with only a run or two.

The Dodgers, meanwhile, have had no trouble hitting on the road.  And they also had no problem with the defending champion Cubs.  That's why they're the favorites.  As they should be.  Because, as good as the Astros are, the Dodgers are simply a better team.

All year, the Dodgers have been talking about how they're tired of seeing highlights of the 1988 World Series championship team on the scoreboard.  Well, they're not gonna have to watch those highlights for much longer.  The 29 years they've been waiting isn't quite the same as the 55 years Houston's been waiting for its first title.  But the Astros will have to wait a little longer.  

Because the 2017 Dodgers remind me of the 2016 Cubs in so many ways.  They've had a singular mission all season, just like the Cubs last year.  And I see their 2017 campaign ending the same way Chicago's 2016 did.  The Dodgers take it in six.

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