Thursday, August 4, 2016

Will the New Sports Last?

In an unsurprising move, the IOC approved five new sports for the 2020 Olympics in Tokyo.  (OK, it's really six, but baseball and softball were presented together, so they count as one.)  After the Tokyo organizers presented this list to the IOC Executive Board, it was really just a matter of rubber-stamping it when the whole IOC got together in Rio.  And that's exactly what happened.

So, after the painstaking process that golf and rugby went through to get added for the Rio Games (and the ridiculous dropping of wrestling only to bring it back), the Olympic program went from 28 sports to 34 in one felt swoop.  There's a catch, though.  As part of the IOC's Olympic Agenda 2020 reforms, they said that organizers can add sports for their Olympics only without affecting the slate of permanent sports.  In other words, baseball/softball's return and the addition of skateboarding, surfing, karate and sport climbing could all be a one-off scenario.

Now, I've gone on record as saying that I'm not a proponent of this idea.  When the 28-sport cap was put in place, I wasn't a fan of that either, but I don't like the idea of picking and choosing Olympic sports.  I'm glad baseball and softball are back because they never should've been dropped in the first place, but what good is it to be back in the Olympics if they're going to be gone again in 2024?

By the way, golf may have the same problem.  They're only guaranteed for Rio and Tokyo, and there doesn't seem to be much enthusiasm among the golfers to participate in the Olympics, so it's a very realistic possibility that golf's swan song could be in 2020.  With rugby, I don't anticipate any such issues.  I can't wait to watch this rugby tournament, and I don't think I'm alone.  While it won't approach the following of beach volleyball, rugby could definitely develop that cult-like status.  I foresee a long Olympic future for rugby.

As for the newly-added sports, I'm not so sure.  I may be wrong, but baseball/softball and maybe karate are probably the only ones with real lasting power (and, no offense to karate, but do we really need judo, taekwondo and karate?).  Surfing and skateboarding seem like desperate grabs for a younger audience, though.  Of course, snowboarding has turned into one of the most popular sports in the Winter Olympics, but surfing and especially skateboarding just seem out of place in the Olympics.

Sport climbing is the interesting one.  It was previously a finalist to join the Olympics the old way, so it's been building towards inclusion for a few years.  And I definitely think sport climbing could be here to stay.  Tokyo will obviously be a test run (and I don't know when LA/Paris will have to make its decision by), but sport climbing doesn't seem as gimmicky as surfing and skateboarding.  We'll have to see what kind of reaction it gets, but I like sport climbing's prospects for remaining in the Olympics beyond Tokyo.

Then there's the elephant in the room.  Baseball and softball.  To say they were unceremoniously dropped from the Olympic program in 2005 would be an understatement.  They suffered a fate that they didn't deserve, and I'm glad to see they're back where they belong.  But it wasn't the IOC that rectified that mistake.  It was the Tokyo organizers.  And when they gave them that power, you knew it was almost certain baseball and softball would return, considering their popularity in Japan.

My concern, though, is baseball and softball's lasting power.  I don't know how this'll end up working and/or if the IOC could take it upon themselves to keep them permanently, but let's assume that won't be the case.  That means it'll be up to the organizers.  I think it's safe to say that if LA wins the bid for 2024, they've got nothing to worry about.  But can the same be said for Paris?  And after that.  Who knows what cities will even bid for the 2028 Games?  And seeing as it's logistically impossible for Major League Baseball to shut down in the middle of the season for the Olympics, how well is that going to go over?

Likewise, if this whole mixing-and-matching thing is going to continue, what other sports might we expect to see at future Olympics?  That's why I like the old process better.  Squash is an Olympic sport.  It's just never been on the Olympic program.  Yet five sports get added and squash isn't one of them.  Would that have been different if the IOC as a whole had been the ones making the call?  Even still, I'd imagine that squash will eventually get the nod if the IOC keeps leaving it up to the host cities.

Who knows how this is all going to play out in the future?  And right now, that doesn't really matter.  The bottom line is that six sports now have a reason to celebrate.  And the 2020 Tokyo Olympics just got a whole lot bigger.  Baseball and softball, welcome back.  And welcome to karate, sport climbing, skateboarding and surfing.  Enjoy the ride while it lasts.  Because you don't know how long it will.

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