I thought the selection of Vanderlei de Lima as the final torchbearer was absolutely perfect, too. He's not somebody that was remotely close to my radar. But it was brilliant. It took 12 years, but he finally got his Olympic moment. And people are going to remember this a lot longer than they'll remember him getting pushed into the crowd by that crazy fan in Athens.
With the Opening Ceremony now in the books, we move on to the competition. There are 306 events in Rio, an increase of four from London (golf and rugby are to thank for that). And the usual suspects will be in play for most of them. The United States has won the overall medal count at each of the last five Olympics, and had the most gold medals at each except 2008, when China topped the gold medal tally in Beijing. But with the Chinese not enjoying the home field advantage in London, the U.S. moved back to the top of both tables. It figures to be the same again in Rio.
Brazil should get the expected hometown boost. They won 17 medals in London, their most ever. Their most-ever gold medals were the five they won in Athens (after not winning any golds in Sydney). Both of those numbers are in serious jeopardy. In addition to the typical host-country boost, Brazil has its largest Olympic team ever. Their stated goal is to finish in the top 10, which I think is very realistic (using either method of calculating the medal leaders).
Great Britain, obviously, won't match the 65 it won on home soil. But they should still be up there in the top five. Especially because Russia's medal haul will be significantly lower than it normally is. Whatever your thoughts about that country's doping situation, there's no denying that their medal tally will suffer as a result of it. The fewest medals Russia has won since the breakup of the Soviet Union was 63 in 1996, its first appearance as Russia. I don't see how they even approach that number in Rio.
Russia is usually third in the medal standings behind the United States and China. That won't be the case this year. With a much smaller team and the country not allowed to compete in some of its strongest sports, there's no way they'll come anywhere close to the top. They'll be lucky to place in the top five. I've got them in fourth, but barely, just ahead of Great Britain and Australia.
As for the rest of the top 10, it's the usual suspects. Japan, Italy, France, Germany, with Ukraine, the Netherlands and South Korea just behind. (Although, using gold medals instead of total medals would move South Korea into the top 10 according to my predictions.)
In total, I've got 92 countries winning medals in Rio. Of those 92 (which would be a record), I've got four winning one for the first time. Believe it or not, Fiji's never won an Olympic medal. That should change now that rugby's on the program. I've got them taking the gold on the men's side. The other three nations I have cracking the medal table for the first time are Antigua & Barbuda, Malta and Kosovo, which is making its Olympic debut.
If this were the Winter Olympics, I'd give you my whole list of medal predictions. But with 306 events and a projected 92 countries winning medals, I won't subject you to that. Since this is Rio 2016, I was going to give you my top 16, but I've got a three-way tie for 16th between Cuba, Poland and Hungary, so 15 it is...
- United States 47-37-32 (116)
- China 27-20-22 (69)
- Germany 17-21-20 (58)
- Russia 12-13-21 (46)
- Great Britain 21-12-12 (45)
- Australia 15-18-12 (45)
- Japan 13-12-9 (34)
- France 10-13-11 (34)
- Italy 9-7-18 (34)
- Brazil 9-8-14 (31)
- Ukraine 5-4-14 (23)
- Netherlands 4-6-13 (23)
- South Korea 11-5-6 (22)
- New Zealand 5-5-7 (17)
- Canada 4-8-5 (17)
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