Sunday, February 7, 2016

Who Wins Super Bowl 50?

We've finally made it!  The Super Bowl's Golden Anniversary celebration is here.  For the third straight year, it's the two No. 1 seeds, and, for the first time ever, both starting quarterbacks were No. 1 overall picks.  Will MVP Cam Newton the Panthers complete the fourth 18-1 season in NFL history (keep in mind, only two of the previous three wanted to be 18-1), or will Peyton get that second title before (presumably) riding off into the sunset?

Carolina was installed as the favorites pretty much as soon as the Conference Championship Games ended, but I don't think this will be the Panthers blowout most people are expecting.  All season, I said that Denver was either going to end up in the Super Bowl or get knocked out early.  Well, now they're here, and it's because of that defense.  It doesn't have a catchy name, but it's the reason the Broncos are where they are.  For all the attention their offense gets, it's easy to see why the defense gets overlooked.  But that's the difference between this Denver team and the one that got its butt kicked two years ago.

The Broncos have done everything within their power to make this Super Bowl experience completely different from their last one.  As the designated home team, Denver had the choice of jersey color.  The orange jerseys have brought them nothing but bad mojo in the Super Bowl.  Denver's 0-4 in orange, and none of those games was particularly close.  As a result, they're wearing white.  Yes, it's a small thing.  No, it probably won't make a difference.  But it helps the Broncos psychologically, so there probably is something to it.

They're trying to erase the stink of Super Bowl XLVIII, but the fact that they were there could come into play, as well.  Sure, there are guys like DeMarcus Ware who've been added to the mix, but, for the most part, these are many of the same Denver players.  They've been here before.  Carolina hasn't.  Cam Newton played in a BCS National Championship Game at Auburn, but that's not quite the same thing.  I doubt the stage will overwhelm the Panthers.  But you know it won't be a problem for the Broncos.

In their first two playoff games, the Panthers got out to ridiculous starts.  Against Seattle, it was 31-0 before the Seahawks almost came all the way back.  The NFC Championship Game was never close.  They took it to the Cardinals from the opening whistle and didn't let up.

So, it'll be important for the Broncos to prevent (or at least withstand) that initial rush.  Carolina can do so many things offensively that they won't be able to shut them down completely.  What they'll need to do is limit the damage.  Cam Newton is significantly more mobile than both Ben Roethlisberger and Peyton Manning.  He's not going to just stay in the pocket, which puts the pressure on the pass rush to find a way to get to him.

For all the Panthers can do offensively, that defense is just as deadly.  Luke Kuechly and Josh Norman are All-Pros for a reason.  And they'll be just as big a part of the game as Cam and Co.  Because as much as Denver needs to hold the offense at bay, the onus is on the Broncos' offense to do something.  Basically, Peyton Manning has to be Peyton Manning, which is something he hasn't been in three previous Super Bowl appearances (even though he was the MVP in one of them).

But Denver's been counted out before.  How many people said they'd lose to Pittsburgh?  And they were...until the Peyton of old showed up in the fourth quarter.  Nobody gave them a chance in the AFC Championship Game.  They expected it to be a New England blowout.  Well, how'd that work out?  My point here is that the difference between this Broncos team is that defense.  The defense put Manning in a position to win, and he was great when he needed to be.

And that defense, I think, is going to be the biggest difference in this game.  Carolina's offense had a historic season, but they haven't faced a defense like this one all year.  It's why Denver beat Pittsburgh, and it's why Denver beat New England.

As they say, offense wins games, defense wins championships.  We've seen that come true in the Super Bowl before.  Tampa Bay-Oakland was the No. 1 defense vs. the No. 1 offense.  And the No. 1 defense won in a blowout.  Same thing with Broncos-Seahawks, when Seattle's No. 1 defense dominated.  I think this one will be closer, but the end result will be the same.

Denver's defense doesn't get nearly enough credit, but they're gonna lead their team to a title.  Peyton Manning goes out a champion.  Broncos 28, Panthers 20.

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