Thursday, February 11, 2016

Denver vs. Who?

Congratulations to the Broncos on winning Super Bowl 50.  And with that, we know where the 2016 NFL season will begin.  As the Super Bowl champions, Denver has earned the right to host the opening game on Sept. 8 (provided there isn't a Presidential Debate that night).  But who will they play?

Obviously, there are only eight possible teams that could visit Denver on Opening Night, but we also know that realistically it's less than that.  There are really only four teams coming to Denver in 2016 that are in the running to play on Opening Night--Indianapolis, Kansas City, New England and Carolina.  Each one is interesting for a different reason, but each one also presents a reason for the NFL not to choose it.

Let's start with Indianapolis.  The Colts weren't good this season, and there's no guarantee that they'll be much better next season.  Really the only reason to pick Indianapolis would be the Manning vs. Luck matchup.  But if Peyton Manning retires, like most people suspect, there goes your reason for the Colts to be Denver's Week 1 opponent.  I think it's safe to say that even on that off chance Peyton does return, Indy's out.

Kansas City was a playoff team in 2015 and is a division rival.  They've actually done a divisional showdown in the Kickoff Game only twice, both times when the Giants hosted as the defending Super Bowl champions (against Washington in 2008, against Dallas in 2012).  In this season's matchups, the Chiefs and Broncos played a really good game in Kansas City, then the Chiefs dominated the game in Denver when Peyton was pulled.  I expect the Chiefs to be good again next season, and both games against the Broncos will probably be worthwhile.  Except there's no cache in this one.  With a national audience watching, the NFL will want a sexier matchup than Chiefs-Broncos (which was a pretty good candidate for Thanksgiving night until the Broncos won the Super Bowl).

That leaves us with two--the Patriots and the Panthers.  I've got a feeling we're going to see either an AFC Championship Game rematch or a Super Bowl rematch.  While the Patriots might seem like the obvious selection, there are a couple things that might come into play.  If Manning retires, the Brady-Manning rivalry will be over.  That's always been the big selling point.  Likewise, the NFL's Deflategate hearing is scheduled for March.  It's possible that Brady will be re-suspended and miss the opener.  It'll still be a rematch of the AFC Championship Game, but a Broncos-Patriots matchup without either of the Hall of Fame quarterbacks is a much tougher sell.

So, if it's not the Patriots, the only realistic option left is the Panthers.  And, I have to admit, this is the most intriguing possibility.  They've never done a Super Bowl rematch in the opener, but, because of the interconference rotation and its predetermined home/away matchups, that possibility isn't always there.

This year they've got that chance, so why not take it?  MLB did.  They had the Mets at Royals Opening Day game set long before the two of them ended up playing in the World Series. It was sheer coincidence, but they wisely decided to run with it.  Mets-Royals will be the opening Sunday night game.  The NFL had that same lucky coincidence dropped into its lap.  Not only is the NFC South playing the AFC West next season, but the Panthers are visiting the Broncos!  We know it's going to be scheduled as a Sunday night game at some point, so why not just make it the opener?

Even if the Broncos are Peyton-less, the Super Bowl rematch is a very easy sell for both NBC (which will promote this game relentlessly during the Olympics) and the NFL.  It's also a chance to showcase the Panthers' stars like Cam Newton and Luke Kuechly and Josh Norman, which is something the NFL by and large failed to do in 2015 (despite going 15-1, the Panthers only had two national TV appearances during the regular season, a Monday night game against Indianapolis and on Thanksgiving in Dallas).  Sounds like a win-win to me.

Yes, they'd have to watch the Broncos raise their championship banner.  But you also know that the Panthers would also get plenty of extra motivation from that.  And after his performance in the Super Bowl (and after), you know Cam Newton wants to redeem himself.  Playing in one of the featured games of the NFL season, with a chance to exact some revenge on the team that beat them in the Super Bowl, would give him the opportunity to do just that.

If I had to guess, I'd say the Panthers will be Denver's opponent in the NFL Kickoff Game.  The Super Bowl rematch is too juicy to pass up, especially since you don't know if the matchup will be as worthwhile later in the season.  So, you heard it here first.  Mark it down in ink.  Panthers at Broncos in the 2016 NFL Kickoff Game on Sept. 8.

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