Just when I thought I had this whole playoff thing figured out, the teams had some other ideas. The Real Peyton Manning showed up and Denver clinched home field, as New England completely pissed away the end of the regular season, completely changing the entire AFC playoff picture in the process. Meanwhile, the Jets blew their golden opportunity and the Steelers, who had very little hope, ended up joining the party. And now that you've got Ben Roethlisberger and a team with all that playoff experience in the mix, I don't think anyone would be surprised to see a deep Steelers run.
Over in the NFC, the Cardinals were getting their butts kicked and saw the Panthers were winning, so they did the smart thing and sat their starters in the second half. We all thought the matchups were pretty much locked in (I thought it was an NFL rule that all Redskins playoff games are against Seattle), then the Vikings decided they'd rather win the division than go to Washington, giving the NFC the two best wild card teams in recent memory.
All four wild card teams are so good that they're all favored this weekend, and nobody would be surprised to see that happen. In fact, I think there are very few people who'd be surprised to see one, or two, of these teams getting all the way to San Francisco. But this is the playoffs. Nothing is guaranteed. Last year, the 7-8-1 Panthers won their wild card game, and the 7-9 Seahawks won a wild card game before them. So, while the road teams might be the "favorites" on paper, it wouldn't be that surprising to see them all lose, either.
One last thought before moving on to the picks...I'm not sure how I feel about this new playoff schedule. We've gotten so used to one game from each conference on both days. I'm not sure how they came up with this AFC doubleheader/NFC doubleheader thing, or if it's a one-year deal. I also have no idea why NBC agreed to have "Sunday Night Football" be at 1:00 in the afternoon. They usually get the Saturday night game during wild card weekend. I wonder if it has something to do with the CBS contract for Thursday nights that guarantees them a primetime playoff game. Anyway, I'm sure the Bengals aren't thrilled about it. We all know about them and night games.
AFC Wild Card
Chiefs (11-5) at Texans (9-7): Kansas City-Kansas City enters the playoffs as the hottest team in football. The Chiefs have won 10 straight since their five-game losing streak. What everyone forgets, though, is that before the five-game losing streak, they actually won their opener in Houston. Now the Chiefs and Texans meet again to open the playoffs. The Texans made everybody's lives easier by beating the Jaguars and clinching the AFC South outright, and Houston enters the postseason on a three-game winning streak.
This is the third time the Texans have been in the playoffs, and they won their wild card game each of the previous times. Kansas City's last playoff win was against Houston. The Houston OILERS! In 1993! So, yeah, it's been a while for the Chiefs. They're overdue for a playoff win. And this team is good. They haven't won 10 straight by accident. Sure, things will get a lot more difficult when they go to New England or Denver next week, but the Chiefs are the best team nobody knows about. They'll show everybody on the postseason stage.
Steelers (10-6) at Bengals (12-4): Cincinnati-What in the name of Bo Jackson does Cincinnati need to do to catch a break? After losing to Denver, the Bengals pretty much knew they were going to be the No. 3 seed. What they didn't know was that they'd have to face their division rival Steelers, the team that just beat them and knocked Andy Dalton out a month ago, for the third time this season. The last time they faced Pittsburgh in the playoffs was 10 years ago, when the sixth-seeded Steelers broke Carson Palmer's ACL in their first of three straight road wins en route to their fifth Lombardi Trophy.
Simply getting to the playoffs is no longer cutting it for the Bengals. They've made it this far five years in a row and six times in the last seven years. But they've lost the wild card game each time. Cincinnati knows it's time for results. Dalton's not ready to go yet, so A.J. McCarron will get the start, which is advantage Pittsburgh. You've also gotta think that Pittsburgh's experience will come into play, and that the playoff struggles will definitely be in the Bengals' heads. Cincinnati also needs to clear the mental hurdle of the primetime game. Despite all that, though, I think the Bengals are the home team most equipped to avoid an "upset" this weekend. Their familiarity with the Steelers will be an asset to them. I can see Cincinnati beating New England next week. I can also see them losing to Pittsburgh. I just have a feeling the Bengals will pull it out, though. The Steelers gave it everything they had to get in. They're either primed for a long run or an early exit. I think it'll be the latter.
NFC Wild Card
Seahawks (10-6) at Vikings (11-5): Seattle-En route to consecutive NFC titles, the Seahawks didn't have to go on the road once. Their last playoff road game was a divisional game they probably should've won in Atlanta three years ago. The Vikings, meanwhile, get one last game they never thought they'd get at TD Bank Stadium, and the first outdoor playoff game in Minnesota since 1982 will be one of the coldest in NFL history. Which means we're going to see even more Marshawn Lynch and Adrian Peterson than we originally expected.
Minnesota apparently put in some sort of request that all of its games be on NBC. The Vikings won the last two Sunday night games of the season to seize the division, and they'll be on NBC again next week in Arizona if they beat the Seahawks. As they said repeatedly on Sunday night, winning that game was a double-edged sword. The Vikings got the home game, but now they have to take on Seattle, probably the most dangerous of the four wild card teams. Minnesota's got some good mojo going, but they played the Seahawks on Dec. 6 and lost 38-7. Being on the road is something new for Seattle, but Minnesota's a good matchup for them. The Vikings will need to rely on Teddy Bridgewater and the Seahawks know that. Russell Wilson, meanwhile, has played like an MVP candidate over the past month. And let's not forget, they've been to the Super Bowl two years in a row. Next week when they have to go to Carolina, things might be different, but I think the Seahawks will get through Minnesota in the wild card game.
Packers (10-6) at Redskins (9-7): Green Bay: By losing their last two games and giving away the NFC North, the Packers went from the cozy confines of Lambeau to a trip to Washington. The Redskins are viewed by many to be the weakest team of the 11 in the playoffs, but I don't necessarily agree. Are they Super Bowl-bound? Probably not. But over the last six weeks, they've been as good as anybody. And they're very tough at home, where they went 6-2 this season.
Green Bay has been two completely different teams this season. The Packers looked like world beaters when they started 6-0, then they turned downright pedestrian during the 1-4 span that followed. Just when we thought they'd turned a corner, they get embarrassed in Arizona and surprise everyone by losing to Minnesota and dropping into a wild card position. Which Packers team will show up? It better be the first one. Otherwise, a year that looked like it could be Super will end with a very disappointing one-and-done playoff showing. Washington's probably just happy not to be playing Seattle. The Redskins' last three playoff games, all losses, were against the Seahawks. The last time they played somebody else, they beat Tampa Bay in a 2005 wild card game. (This is their first playoff game against a team other than the Seahawks or Bucs since 1999.)
So, there you have it. I'm taking three of the four wild card teams, but, for some reason, I do think Cincinnati will beat Pittsburgh. If I'm right, that sets up divisional playoff matchups of Bengals-Patriots and Chiefs-Broncos in the AFC, with Panthers-Seahawks and Cardinals-Packers in the NFC. As for my way-too-early Super Bowl pick, I'm saying Arizona over Denver. I think the Cardinals are the best team.
Last Week: 10-6
Regular Season: 156-100
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