Saturday, December 26, 2015

2015 Football Picks, Week 16

Before getting into this week's slate of games, a thought about Sunday Night Football next week, which is always TBA so that they can have a game that matters showcased.  Except this year, there might not be any games that matter.  If the Redskins and Packers win this week, everything in the NFC will be locked in, and you'd have too many teams in the running for that final AFC spot that you really wouldn't be able to play one at a different time than the others.

So, unless the Eagles win on Saturday, the NFL could have quite a dilemma on its hands.  I may have a solution, though.  Bucs-Panthers.  Should Carolina beat Atlanta, they'll be going for the second 16-0 regular season in NFL history.  Sounds to me like a great opportunity to showcase the best team in the league and their historic attempt.  It would also be most of the nation's first real chance to see Jamies Winston, seeing as the Bucs have been terrible for a long time.  Of course, there's still a lot of stuff in play in Week 16, and an Eagles victory over the Redskins all but assures we'll see the Giants on Sunday night two weeks in a row.  (A Cardinals win and a Vikings win means we'll get Green Bay-Minnesota for the NFC North in the first of back-to-back meetings.)

Thursday Night: Oakland (Win)

Redskins (7-7) at Eagles (6-8): Philadelphia-This is probably the most important game of the entire season in the NFC East.  If Washington wins, that's it.  The Redskins clinch the division.  But if the Eagles win, they jump into the driver's seat, and they'll win the division with a win over the Giants in Week 17.  Philadelphia's just 3-7 against NFC teams, but I'm still not sold on Washington on the road.  They finally got a road victory two weeks ago in Chicago, but they don't play any more home games this year, and it'll be very tough to beat two bitter division rivals on the road to end the season.  I think the Eagles win and give themselves the inside track for that playoff loss to Seattle.

Panthers (14-0) at Falcons (7-7): Carolina-First, a word about Mr. Josh Newman.  He's not the innocent victim of Odell Beckham's freak out.  Do you think Beckham would've acted that way if Newman hadn't egged him on?  Because I sure don't.  Keep in mind, this is the same guy who had a fight with Cam Newton during training camp.  OK, now that I've gotten that off my chest, the Panthers definitely face a tough situation here.  They still haven't clinched home field yet, so they'll need to go all out.  But if they do, they'll be 15-0.  Do you resist the temptation to try and go for it next week, or do you do the same thing all good teams do in the last game and sit guys to avoid the risk of injury?  I hope they do go for it next week.  In more ways than one.

Cowboys (4-10) at Bills (6-8): Buffalo-In the season where we celebrated Super Bowl rematches all year long, our final one brings us back to the glory days of both these teams.  It's sure been a long time since Dallas beat Buffalo back-to-back.  After both losing last week, the 2015 versions of the Cowboys and Bills are simply playing out the stretch.  Buffalo at least has a .500 record to play for, and they'll have two home games in which to try and get it (and if the Jets do beat the Patriots, you know Rex would love nothing more than knocking them out of the playoffs).

49ers (4-10) at Lions (5-9): Detroit-Two more teams playing out the stretch, but getting their in vastly different directions.  The Lions haven't been bad since their horrible start and Mrs. Ford's ultimatum.  San Francisco, on the other hand, has been lost all season, and now the 49ers can't even score!  The Lions are a Rodgers-to-Rodgers 70-yard bomb away from making it six out of seven.  As it is, they'll make it five out of seven.

Texans (7-7) at Titans (3-11): Houston-Houston took control of the AFC South last week with that win in Indy, and they can clinch the division with a win and a Colts loss.  There aren't many teams in football that are hotter than the Texans right now, and they've got a favorable remaining schedule (at Tennessee, Jacksonville at home).  But they can't afford to screw up against a Titans team that's staring at the No. 1 pick the year after drafting No. 2.

Browns (3-11) at Chiefs (9-5): Kansas City-The Chiefs are the first team in NFL history to win eight straight immediately after a five-game losing streak.  Yet, amazingly, they haven't clinched a playoff spot yet.  And, even more amazingly, they can still win the AFC West.  With all that still in play, do you really think they're gonna let up at home against lowly Cleveland?  I don't.  A win coupled with Jets or Steelers loss puts the Chiefs in the playoffs.

Colts (6-8) at Dolphins (5-9): Indianapolis-I have no idea who's going to play quarterback for the Colts this week.  But Indy's now in a situation where they must win out and hope the Texans lose.  That's how big those late-season division games can be.  Now they leave the chilly Midwest for sunny Miami for a matchup with an equally disappointing Dolphins team.  The Colts are on a three-game losing streak.  The Dolphins have lost two straight.  Something's gotta give.

Patriots (12-2) at Jets (9-5): New England-You've gotta feel for the Jets.  They've done everything they've needed to do over the past month, yet they've gone from in the playoffs to on the outside looking in.  They need a lot of things to go their way over the final two weeks, and the schedule-makers didn't help their cause, as Bradicheck and Co. come for their annual visit this week.  Stop me if you've heard this one before: New England clinches home field in the AFC playoffs with a win.  Yes, the script's getting old.  I agree.  Unfortunately, I don't think there's much we can do about it.  The Jets are gonna need a miracle to get in.

Bears (5-9) at Buccaneers (6-8): Tampa Bay-Lovie takes on his former team in Tampa.  The Bears would certainly like to forget 2015 after heading into the season with such high hopes, which I think Tampa Bay's got to be encouraged in the first year of the Jamies Winston Era.  If they'd beaten the Rams, they'd be playing to guarantee a .500 record.  As it is, they'll take on Carolina next week needing a win to end the season at 8-8.

Steelers (9-5) at Ravens (4-10): Pittsburgh-Well, it's gonna be a three-point game.  That much we know.  Other than that, I've got nothing.  The Ravens won the first game between these two when they were still winless, and it could be the game that knocks the Steelers out of the playoffs.  That win over Denver last week was THAT important for Pittsburgh.  They can't follow it up with a loss to their bitter rivals.  If they do get swept by Baltimore, they deserve to miss the playoffs.

Jaguars (5-9) at Saints (5-9): New Orleans-Who would've thought that when Jacksonville visited New Orleans in Week 16, they'd have the same record?  Most people had the Saints tagged as a potential playoff team, while not much was expected of the Jaguars.  I've been pleasantly surprised by Jacksonville this season.  I don't see them winning in New Orleans, though.

Packers (10-4) at Cardinals (12-2): Arizona-It's crazy how excited I am to watch this game.  The NFC West champion Cardinals have shown us a lot during their eight-game winning streak, and they'd love to wrap up their first-round bye before the Seahawks come visit next week.  More importantly, this is a statement game for Arizona this close to the start of the playoffs.  Same for the Packers.  Green Bay needs a win to avoid a winner-take-all showdown for the division title.  Like I said, it's gonna be a good game.  That's why FOX made sure they kept it when you know NBC would've loved to have this one on "Sunday Night Football."

Rams (6-8) at Seahawks (9-5): Seattle-St. Louis won when they played Seattle in Week 2.  The Seahawks are a much different team than they were four months ago.  Seattle's won five straight and looks like the two-time defending NFC champions for really the first time all season.  And Russell Wilson's been otherworldly of late.  We haven't seen the Seahawks win on the road in the playoffs yet, though.  That's a matter for a couple weeks from now, but their victory here will lock up Minnesota's playoff spot.

Giants (6-8) at Vikings (9-5): Giants-There's a chance, albeit a very small one, that the Giants can still get into the playoffs as NFC East champions.  Of course, a Redskins win on Saturday night eliminates all those possibilities, so they could be (to use a poker term) drawing dead come Sunday night in Minnesota.  It's a big one for the Vikings, too.  They can set up a winner-take-all showdown for the NFC North with a win and a Packers loss.  The lack of Odell Beckham will make the task that much harder for Giants, but they have always been a team that rises to the occasion.  This season, their version of rising to the occasion has meant losing a close game in the final seconds, but for some reason I think they're going to pull this one out anyway.  Two teams with a lot to play for.  Good choice for Sunday night.

Bengals (11-3) at Broncos (10-4): Denver-Last year when these two met in the final Monday night game of the season, the Bengals needed a win to get into the playoffs, and they delivered.  This time, it's the Broncos that come in needing a win.  Cincinnati's playoff spot is assured, and they'll wrap up a much-needed bye with a win in Denver.  The Broncos, though, can amazingly end up out of the postseason entirely, a suggestion that was completely unthinkable after they beat the Patriots.  A win gives the Broncos the inside track on the other bye, though (keep in mind they play San Diego in Week 17).  Of course, they need to figure out how to not blow a big lead first.  Against the Bengals defense, the opportunities to score will be few and far between, so I don't see that happening.  I still need to know the Bengals can win in primetime, too.  Two primetime games this season.  Two losses.

This Week: 1-0
Last Week: 9-7

Season: 138-87

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