It's an even-numbered year. Which means the Cardinals are going to win the National League pennant this season. The other teams don't even need to bother showing up. I have no idea how this Giants-Cardinals rotation works, but one thing about it is clear. St. Louis is always going to be in the mix in the NL Central and more than likely end up in the playoffs.
Even though Washington and the Dodgers are clearly the two best teams in the National League on paper, you know the Cardinals are going to be a tough out. The NL Central is going to be very competitive this year, though. Take the Cubs. They're a chic pick to not just win the division. Vegas has them as a favorite to get to the World Series or even win it. Not buying that. This is the Cubs we're talking about. We're at 107 years and counting without a title and 70 years since they've even played in the World Series. Can they get there? Perhaps. They're certainly much better than they were last year. But there's always that one team everybody gets all excited about and thinks is going to be really good because of all their offseason moves, then ends up fizzling out (see: 2012 Marlins, 2013 Blue Jays). I've got a feeling the 2015 Cubs will be the next team on that list.
Then there's the team that suddenly gets good out of nowhere and captures America's hearts. In 2013, that was the Pittsburgh Pirates. They'd gone more than 20 years without finishing above .500, then blew past it and qualified for the playoffs before going back last season. It doesn't look like the Pirates plan on going anywhere, either. The way I see it, this is going to be a three-team race between the Cardinals, Cubs and Pirates all season long. Very little separates those three teams, and I actually think Cincinnati has an outside shot at making some noise, as well.
1. St. Louis Cardinals: As I've said repeatedly, I don't quite understand how the Cardinals are this good every year. They're kind of the baseball version of the Patriots. And since they always find a way to win the division, I've come to realize that picking against them is a lost cause. As a result, I'm giving St. Louis the edge in a very competitive division where the top teams will only be separated by a game or two. The rotation is likely one of the big reasons why they're in the mix every year. It's strong again, with Adam Wainwright, Lance Lynn, John Lackey and Michael Wacha. The only issue I can find is the lack of a lefty, since Jaime Garcia's starting the season on the DL. They've got Trevor Rosenthal closing, so they're set there. And they've got Yadi Molina behind the plate. In fact, I think having arguably the best catcher in the game is why the St. Louis pitching staff is so good. And Molina's probably as big a reason as any why the Cardinals are good every year. We're still six months from the postseason, so they've still got some time, but, oddly, the Cardinals don't enter the season with a guy people have never heard of penciled in as a starter somewhere. In fact, they went out and made a pretty major move in getting Jayson Heyward from Atlanta to play right field. That was the one position that they really needed to improve, and if Heyward has a season like his rookie year, that was a steal. (Although, the reason they had a hole in right field was the tragic death of prospect Oscar Tavares during the World Series.) He'll probably hit lower in the order, too, so let's see if that has a positive bearing on Heyward's numbers. Of course, the other thing about Heyward joining the Cardinals is that he came from another team. The Cardinals love to show off the quality of their Minor League system by filling the Big League roster with homegrown talent, so I wonder if they've got somebody waiting in the wings. Problem is, I don't know who he'd push out of the lineup. Most importantly, the Cardinals know how to win. They aren't the most talented team. But they'll figure out a way to get back to the playoffs. Although, I'm sure Clayton Kershaw would be OK with it if they don't.
Projected Lineup: Matt Carpenter-3B, Jon Jay-CF, Matt Holliday-LF, Matt Adams-1B, Jhonny Peralta-SS, Yadier Molina-C, Jason Heyward-RF, Kolten Wong-2B
Projected Rotation: Adam Wainwright, Lance Lynn, John Lackey, Michael Wacha, Carlos Martinez
Closer: Trevor Rosenthal
Projected Record: 89-73
2. Chicago Cubs: There's a lot of buzz surrounding the Cubs this season. A lot of people think this is the year they're finally going to win. The main reason why is because they pulled a major coup and landed Jon Lester, the best free agent starting pitcher available. With Lester and a young lineup anchored by Starlin Castro, Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant (coming in May), expectations are much higher than they usually are on the North Side. I think those expectations need to be tempered a little bit, though. The Cubs will definitely be better, will likely finish above .500 and might contend for a wild card. But they're not the best team in the National League. Not by a long shot. They're not even better than the Cardinals. Give them another year or two. Yes, Lester's a stud, and Jason Hammel also came back from Oakland, but behind the two of them, the pitching's not really that great. Hector Rondon had 29 saves last year and enters 2015 as the closer, but if he struggles, they've got both Pedro Strop and Jason Motte. The back of the Cubs bullpen actually looks pretty good. It's the lineup that needs time, though. Because they're banking a lot on these young guys. Even though everybody knew what they were going to do before Spring Training even started, sending Bryant down was a controversial move. He led the team with nine home runs during Spring Training, but was ticketed to start the season in the Minors pretty much no matter what. It's pretty much the way baseball business works. But Mike Trout wasn't called up until May. And he won Rookie of the Year and finished second for MVP four years ago. Last year's Rookie of the Year, Jacob de Grom, didn't start the season in the Majors either. Neither did Bryce Harper. Yasiel Puig wasn't called up until June. My point is Bryant will be in Chicago soon enough, and he's still my pick for Rookie of the Year. I just hope the Cubs don't wait too long before his debut. Because they're going to need Bryant if they have any hope of snapping any of their historic droughts. Although, Joe Maddon worked magic with less in Tampa Bay, so if any manager has a chance of turning the Cubs into a winner, it's him.
Projected Lineup: Dexter Fowler-CF, Arismendy Alcantara-2B, Starlin Castro-SS, Anthony Rizzo-1B, Jorge Soler-RF, Chris Coghlan-LF, Mike Olt-3B, Miguel Montero-C
Projected Rotation: Jon Lester, Jake Arrieta, Jason Hammel, Travis Wood, Kyle Hendricks
Closer: Hector Rondon
Projected Record: 85-77
3. Pittsburgh Pirates: Three years ago, Russell Martin left the Yankees for the Pirates as a free agent. The Yankees fell apart and haven't made the playoffs in the two seasons since he left. The Pirates, on the other hand, turned from a perennial loser into a team that made back-to-back postseason appearances. Well, now Martin's in Toronto, and the Pirates have replaced him with the same Chris Stewart/Francisco Cervelli tag team the Yankees used after Martin in 2013. Let's see if Martin leaving Pittsburgh has the same impact as Martin leaving New York. (Closer Mark Melancon is also a former Yankee, as is A.J. Burnett, who's back for a second go-round with the Pirates after one year across the state with the Phillies.) Of course, the Pirates boast one of the best players in the game in Andrew McCutchen, though. He's their Yadier Molina, and the talent around McCutchen could be enough for them to play in another Wild Card Game this season. Pittsburgh can hit, but they know they need to take advantage of the fact that all these guys are still under team control. Because there's little to no chance they'll be able to keep them all in Pittsburgh once free agency hits. Same thing with the pitching. They need to lock up Gerrit Cole. Francisco Liriano will start on Opening Day, though. And he should. Because Liriano's arrival and success have been as big a reason as any why the Pirates have turned it around. And I don't care what anybody says. I'll take A.J. Burnett as my No. 1 starter any day. Because when he's on, he's got No. 1-type stuff.
Projected Lineup: Josh Harrison-3B, Neil Walker-2B, Andrew McCutchen-CF, Pedro Alvarez-1B, Starling Marte-LF, Francisco Cervelli-C, Jordy Mercer-SS, Gregory Polanco-RF
Projected Rotation: Francisco Liriano, Gerrit Cole, Charlie Morton, A.J. Burnett, Jeff Locke
Closer: Mark Melancon
Projected Record: 84-78
4. Cincinnati Reds: The All-Star Game will be in Cincinnati for the first time since 1988 this season. It's not good that that's the first thing I thought of about the 2015 Reds. Because it wasn't that long ago that I was so high on Cincinnati, touting them as a sleeper pennant winner. Oh, how times have changed. They've been trending downward ever since blowing that 2-0 series lead against the Giants in the 2012 Division Series. Which is crazy. Because the Reds are so good on paper. Every year they're among the National League leaders in runs, and I don't think this year will be any different. This is Joey Votto's team, but they've also got Todd Frazier, Brandon Phillips and Jay Bruce. These guys have all been All-Stars in the not-too-distant past. And leadoff hitter Billy Hamilton should've been Rookie of the Year last season. Then you look in the bullpen and see this towering, left-handed Cuban guy with the 100 mph fastball. I'm so glad they got that whole "let's make Chapman a starter" thing out of their systems. Because they've got one of the most dominant closers in the game. The front of the rotation isn't terrible either. Johnny Cueto won 20 games last year and 19 in 2012. He's a stud. Homer Bailey and Mike Leake are still there, too. But no more Edinson Volquez. No more Mat Latos. No more Alfredo Simon. And that's where I think Cincinnati is going to struggle. After the front three, the rotation is weak and, outside of Chapman, the bullpen's not that great, either. The question is will they be good enough for the Reds' bats to outscore teams? And what happens if one of those bats gets hurt? Cincinnati's 2014 season was sunk when Votto went down. They're an injury away from being an also-ran. But if everyone stays healthy, they could be a sleeper again in 2015. Regardless, they're going to be fun to watch.
Projected Lineup: Billy Hamilton-CF, Brandon Phillips-2B, Joey Votto-1B, Todd Frazier-3B, Jay Bruce-RF, Marlon Byrd-LF, Zack Cozart-SS, Devin Mesoraco-C
Projected Rotation: Johnny Cueto, Homer Bailey, Mike Leake, Jason Marquis, Anthony DeSclafini
Closer: Aroldis Chapman
Projected Record: 76-86
5. Milwaukee Brewers: Here's the thing about the Brewers. They aren't a last-place team the way the Twins or the Phillies or the Diamondbacks are a last place team. There's actually a fair amount of talent in Milwaukee. The Brewers just aren't as good as the other four teams in their division. Jonathan Lucroy was a finalist for MVP last season and Carlos Gomez has turned into a solid center fielder, but Ryan Braun isn't good not on steroids and Aramis Ramirez is old. That's why he's retiring after the season. As for their big offseason acquisition? It's Adam Lind. In Toronto, he had the luxury of splitting first base/DH with Edwin Encarnacion, which kept him healthier and somewhat productive. But in Milwaukee, he's gonna have to play first everyday and be relied upon as a much bigger offensive option than he was with the Blue Jays. I'm not sure Lind's the run-producer the Brewers need him to be. Kyle Lohse and Matt Garza front the pitching staff, but they'd both be a No. 3 or No. 4 starter on most other teams. I don't see much out of their bullpen either. Francisco Rodriguez is a head case. He's either really good or really bad, with very little in between. For a small market team, the bullpen is usually the area where you have to skimp, and the Brewers certainly did. In another division, they'd have a shot at being competitive. But the NL Central is just too good. Unless Cincinnati has a complete meltdown or the Cubs do, in fact, play like the Cubs, I don't see how the Brewers avoid a last-place finish.
Projected Lineup: Carlos Gomez-CF, Jean Segura-SS, Jonathan Lucroy-C, Ryan Braun-RF, Adam Lind-1B, Aramis Ramirez-3B, Khris Davis-LF, Scooter Gennett-2B
Projected Rotation: Kyle Lohse, Matt Garza, Wily Peralta, Jimmy Nelson, Mike Fiers
Closer: Francisco Rodriguez
Projected Record: 71-91
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