Tuesday, April 14, 2015

The 2015 Hockey Playoffs

The NHL regular season has ended and, I have to admit, there were definitely some surprises.  I'm still having a hard time wrapping my finger around the fact that the Sharks can't collapse in the postseason this year.  Meanwhile, the defending champion Kings won't be in the playoffs, either, and neither will the Bruins, who I had reaching the Cup finals in my preseason projections.

But you won't find anyone complaining (except for maybe their fans) that Boston and LA didn't make the playoffs.  Because nobody wanted to play either one of them.  The same could probably be said for Columbus, which was the hottest team in hockey over the last month of the season, but ran out of time and will also be watching the playoffs from home.

So, in lieu of the dangerous lower seed that's hot at the right time, I've got a feeling that we're going to see a postseason where the favorites will be very tough to beat.  But, as we know, anything can happen over the next two months.  That's why the Stanley Cup is the hardest trophy in sports to win.  And that's part of what makes playoff hockey so great.

EASTERN CONFERENCE
Canadiens vs. Senators: Ottawa's on a roll.  The Bruins didn't make the playoffs because of how good Ottawa was down the stretch.  So good that the Senators snuck into the postseason position most people assumed was going to Boston for months.  But winning one of the two battles of Canada (five of the seven Canadian teams made the playoffs, and two are guaranteed to advance, how 'bout that?) will take a lot.  Montreal's the better team, and the Canadiens did what they had to do to make sure they (a) had home ice and (b) avoided Detroit.  The Senators will definitely make it interesting, and they'll probably take a game or two, but the Canadiens are simply too strong.  Montreal in six.

Lightning vs. Red Wings: Tampa Bay is a team on a mission, especially after last season's flameout.  The big difference this year, though, is that the Lightning have a healthy Ben Bishop.  As they learned last year, not having your goalie in the playoffs is a big problem.  The Red Wings, meanwhile, kept their postseason streak alive.  They've made it 24 consecutive times, which is coming up on the NHL record.  This is perhaps the most evenly-matched of the eight series.  Tampa Bay's definitely got more firepower, but Detroit has plenty of its own stars and a ton of postseason experience to bank on.  But the Red Wings usually only advance when they play a team that they're better than, and in this series that's not the case.  Detroit might make it go the distance, but the Lightning have home ice for a reason.  Lightning in seven.

Rangers vs. Penguins: Ever since they locked up the 1-seed two weeks ago, the Rangers and their fans wanted more than anything to not see Boston.  Well, mission accomplished.  Although Pittsburgh might've been No. 2 on that list.  But with the way the Penguins played down the stretch, this matchup actually is more favorable than a series with the Bruins would've been.  Pittsburgh's actually been a pretty good matchup for the Rangers over the past couple years, including last season's miracle seven-game comeback in the Conference Semis.  The Rangers have also owned the regular season meetings between the two.  The Penguins will definitely make them work for it.  But I'll take Henrik Lundqvist over Marc-Andre Fleury any day.  Rangers in six.

Capitals vs. Islanders: This one's interesting.  The Islanders were so good for so much of the year, yet fizzled down the stretch and will end up starting the playoffs on the road.  The Capitals, meanwhile, went on the opposite trajectory.  Washington went from a wild card and potentially having to play the Rangers to second place and home ice in the first round.  Except they have a history of underachieving in the postseason.  Alex Ovechkin knows this and will do anything he can to change that.  He'll need some help, though, and they'll also have to get by Jaroslav Halak, who I think was the Islanders' MVP this season.  He's the difference-maker in this series.  Islanders in six, setting up the all-New York conference semi.

WESTERN CONFERENCE
Blues vs. Wild: Where did St. Louis come from?  It was Anaheim vs. Nashville for the No. 1 overall seed in the West for the longest time, then the Blues come from out of nowhere to win the Central Division and end up with the same point total as the Ducks.  Winning the division was big because it meant avoiding the Blackhawks, but not getting No. 1 overall means a matchup with Minnesota instead, which might be just as tough.  St. Louis is on that list of teams that continually underachieve in the playoffs, while Minnesota always manages to go deeper than people think.  Take last year's first round upset of Colorado.  I smell another one.  Wild in six.

Predators vs. Blackhawks: Here's why finishing first in the Central mattered so much: it meant playing a wild card instead of the Blackhawks.  And it's not like Nashville having home ice is going to make any sort of difference.  Do you really think that bothers Chicago?  The Blackhawks have become regulars in the later rounds of the playoffs mostly because of their ability to win on the road.  It's also their year in the cycle to regain the Western Conference title, which won't require beating the Kings this season.  Nashville had a great season.  It's a shame that they drew the most playoff-tested team in hockey in the first round.  It'll be a great series, but this is the Blackhawks' time to shine.  Chicago wins Game 7 on the road.

Ducks vs. Jets: In the Pacific Division bracket, it's Anaheim vs. Western Canada.  And the Ducks are probably very thankful for that.  Because last year, as the 1-seed, things didn't go well for them in the California bracket.  This year they're the state's only representative, though.  And they're the strongest team among these four by far.  Great job by the Jets to qualify for their first playoff appearance since moving to Winnipeg, but facing the Ducks will be a daunting task for Evander Kane and Co.  Anaheim, a team with so much promise, played up to it in the regular season.  Now it's up to them to carry that over into the playoffs.  Because they're clearly the superior team.  Winnipeg shouldn't be a problem.  Ducks in five.

Canucks vs. Flames: This is the series I expected to see the least.  But you know CBC's not complaining.  They've got a guaranteed "Hockey Night In Canada" late game for as long as this series lasts, which could be all seven.  Vancouver fired Alain Vigneault because they never won the Cup with all that talent, then watched Vigneault lead the Rangers to the Finals while they watched from home last season.  Now they're back in the playoffs with most of the same pieces in place.  Except for Roberto Luongo.  He got blamed for all of their problems, but I'd still take Luongo in a heartbeat.  And if they lose to Calgary, they'll really regret not having him.  As for the Flames, it looked like they'd be a year or two away.  Well, we were wrong.  And they're the ones that knocked out both the Kings and the Sharks.  Calgary's gonna be around for a while.  And I think they're going to beat Vancouver.  Flames in six.

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