Tuesday, November 4, 2014

Free Agent Frenzy

The first of the big baseball free agents landed today when the Cubs introduced Joe Maddon as their new manager.  I don't think there was any funny business involved in Maddon's leaving Tampa Bay for Chicago, but it had to at least have been in the back of his mind.  After all, the Cubs are one of baseball's marquee franchises, and the challenge of turning them around will be welcome by the guy who made the Rays a contender.

While I'm on the topic of managers, I think Paul Molitor was a terrific hire by the Twins.  Not only is he going to be a great manager, he also gives them some star power in the dugout.  I'm not sure how much success Minnesota is going to have in the next couple years, but Molitor won't be the reason they lose.

Anyway, we've also reached the start of free agent season as it relates to players, which, frankly, is what more people care about.  And there are plenty of A-listers available.  If you like/need starting pitching, you're in luck.  Because the two biggest names available are Max Scherzer and Jon Lester.  There are also a couple guys who probably aren't going anywhere, but will end up getting big raises nonetheless.  But Scherzer likely isn't returning to Detroit, and you know Lester isn't going back to Oakland.  Where will they end up?

Starting Pitchers: All of the big spenders will be in the market for Scherzer.  The Tigers may or may not put in an offer to retain him, but with Verlander, Price and Sanchez, they're probably ready to move on.  Instead, I expect the Yankees, Red Sox and Cubs, as well as maybe the Angels, to be the main contenders for his services.  Boston probably wants him badly, and I can see them overpaying for him if Lester decides to go somewhere else.  And I think it's likely Lester goes elsewhere.  When the Red Sox traded him, it was with the expectation of getting him back next season.  But the market for Lester is going to be great and he's going to command a high price.  The type of price the Cubs are willing to pay.

Speaking of the Cubs, I wouldn't be completely surprised if that's the landing spot for James Shields.  Remember, he had all kinds of success with Joe Maddon in Tampa.  I'm not sure I see Shields going to the National League, but I think the money the Cubs throw at him and the chance to reunite with Maddon will be too much to pass up.  The ideal candidate to replace him in Kansas City?  How about Ervin Santana.  They loved him when he was on the Royals before, and he's the type of pitcher they'll be able to afford.

Jake Peavy will probably stay in San Francisco (or end up somewhere like Arizona), and Ryan Vogelsong is probably gone.  He'll end up as the No. 2 or 3 starter on a non-contender.  It would be smart for both Brandon McCarthy and the Yankees to continue that relationship, which leaves Edinson Volquez.  I think he stays in the National League, but where?  Atlanta maybe?

Relievers: David Robertson is going to be the premier closer available.  If he doesn't re-sign with the Yankees, and I'm not totally convinced he won't, he's going to command top dollar for a multi-year deal.  One of the predictions I saw had him going to Washington, and that would make an awful lot of sense.  There are a ton of closer-types available (Rafael Soriano, Jason Grilli, Sergio Romo, Francisco Rodriguez), and it would be dumb of the Dodgers and Tigers to go this entire offseason without addressing their bullpens.  That's why they each lost in the Division Series, after all.  There's a decent crop of middle relievers available, too, from Pat Neshek to Luke Gregerson to Andrew Bailey to Andrew Miller to Phil Coke.

Catcher: The only free agent catcher worth talking about is Russell Martin.  He's considered the player most responsible for the Pirates making the playoffs in each of the last two years.  Pittsburgh knows this.  They're not going to do what the Yankees did two years ago and be stupid enough to let him leave.

Infielders: The Nationals want to move Ryan Zimmerman to first so Anthony Rendon can play third.  That means they have no interest in retaining Adam LaRoche.  He's going to get plenty of offers, though.  Left-handed first basemen that are still productive aren't that easy to come by.  I've heard the Marlins mentioned, but I can also see him going to Milwaukee or somewhere in the American League (maybe the White Sox?).

LaRoche is the only big-name infielder I see changing teams.  The Dodgers know how important Hanley Ramirez is to their lineup, and they're more than willing to spend the money they'll need to keep him.  Likewise, the Giants would be fools to let Pablo Sandoval go.  The Panda loves it there, and all he does is get hits in the World Series.  That's driven his price up, but he's not going anywhere.  I also think Chase Headley stays with the Yankees.  That acquisition made too much sense when it happened at the trade deadline, and the Yankees need somebody who actually can play first base.  They know they can't expect A-Rod to play the field everyday, and Headley is leaps and bounds better defensively anyway.

Outfielders: Melky Cabrera might be the best outfielder available, but he's likely staying put.  He was already working on an extension with the Blue Jays before the season ended.  I've also heard about the Mets and Michael Cuddyer so much that it looks like that one's a done deal, too.  And, I know this sounds crazy, but Ichiro's not going to retire.  There also isn't a team that's going to give him more than a one- or two-year deal to be an everyday right fielder.  But he likes being in New York, and I think he's willing to accept a reduced role to stay with the Yankees.  I'd actually be OK with that, and I can absolutely see it happening.

As for another old guy, Torii Hunter, your guess is as good as mine.  I can see the Tigers re-signing him, but I can also see Detroit willing to move on (they have to find the money for Martinez and a reliever somewhere, and they still might make a run at Scherzer, even though that seems less likely).  Alex Rios is an attractive option for a lot of teams, especially since Texas declined his option, probably because of the type of money he's going to command.  Rios is five years younger than Hunter, so I can easily see him being the one the Tigers have playing right field next year.  Nick Markakis is also a free agent, and he's going to be an interesting test case.  The Orioles know how important he's been to their success over the last three seasons, and he's a homegrown talent, which means they'll make a strong push to retain him.  But there's going to be a market for Markakis.  Will he take less money to stay in Baltimore?  Will the Orioles get priced out?  Or will they do whatever it takes to keep him in right field next to Adam Jones?

All of this can be effected by the elephant in the room, though.  That elephant is Cuban defector Yasmany Tomas.  From what all the scouts say, he's better than Rusney Castillo and just as good as likely AL Rookie of the Year Jose Abreu.  The number of teams that can realistically afford Tomas is fairly limited, of course.  I'm installing the Cubs as the early favorite, with the Phillies also in the running.  And you know there's going to be some random small market team, too.

DHs: There's actually a surprisingly-high number of DH's that are free agents.  Billy Butler's probably not returning to Kansas City, but he can only DH, so the market for him is going to be limited.  He might end up with a one-year deal with somebody like Minnesota or Texas.  Or Houston.  Victor Martinez is staying with the Tigers and Nelson Cruz is staying with the Orioles, so neither of them is even really worth discussing.  And I'm going to include Michael Morse with the DH's because that's where he's going to end up.  He's not a good outfielder to begin with and he's injury-prone, so it makes sense for him to sign with an AL team, where he'll be able to DH regularly and play the outfield maybe once a week.  With Butler likely leaving Kansas City, it's very conceivable that Morse could fill that gap.  The Angels are also an intriguing possibility.

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