I know what you're thinking. Yes, I normally skip the Thursday night game and do my picks on Saturday. But on Thanksgiving, there's three games instead of one. That makes things a little different. With almost a quarter of the league in action, I bump the picks up to Thursday on Thanksgiving week.
And I'm coming off a great, if slightly weird one. I went 12-0 on Sunday and 0-3 on all other days. Still, 12-3's a pretty good week no matter how you slice it. We're also finally done with byes, and that stupid Cincinnati-Carolina tie will complicate the standings slightly less now that everybody has played the same number of games. Anyway, on to the picks for all 16 games...
Bears (5-6) at Lions (7-4): Detroit-It's Detroit's year to be on CBS, which is supposed to mean they're playing an AFC team. And judging by the Lions' schedule this year, that team would've been the Dolphins. Except the NFL decided to slight the AFC entirely and have six NFC teams play on Thanksgiving, which I think is incredibly unfair. Of the three NFC teams that will lose on Thanksgiving, the Bears will be one. The Lions will be thankful for not having to play a first-place team on the road this week.
Eagles (8-3) at Cowboys (8-3): Dallas-FOX and the NFL sure lucked out here. Giving the Cowboys a division game on Thanksgiving is never a bad call, but this year they hit the jackpot. A matchup against Philly where the two of them enter tied for first place. Even better, it's their first meeting of the year. They'll meet again in just two weeks. I have a feeling they're going to split. I also have a feeling the home team is going to win each time. That means Dallas takes this one.
Seahawks (7-4) at 49ers (7-4): Seattle-The Thanksgiving nightcap is one of the league's hottest rivalries--Seattle and San Francisco. The Seahawks beating the Cardinals last week put the NFC West back up for grabs, but you've got to think the loser here hurts their playoff chances. Seattle might need this game a little more. They've got a brutal December schedule. Beating Arizona so convincingly leading into the San Francisco game was good for the Seahawks. I think they go into Northern California and come away with a win.
Browns (7-4) at Bills (6-5): Cleveland-After the winter storm in Buffalo made hosting the Jets impossible, the Bills will be able to play this week's game at Ralph Wilson Stadium. It'll be against the team that goes from first place to last place with the snap of a finger--the Cleveland Browns. This is actually a very important battle for playoff positioning, which no one would've expected between these two at this point in the season. The Bills sure showed up to play against the Jets, but the Browns are significantly better than the Jets. I think Cleveland wins.
Redskins (3-8) at Colts (7-4): Indianapolis-So, Washington has officially given up on RG3. It took them long enough. I don't think he's the Redskins' problem, though. They simply aren't a good football team. Although that close call in San Francisco last week was telling. This week they head to Indy, where Andrew Luck and Co. should take care of business. They usually do against teams they're better than.
Raiders (1-10) at Rams (4-7): St. Louis-Does LA have to take the loser back? Or is the winner the one who gets to go back to LA? Either way, St. Louis is in the rare position of actually being a favorite this week. The Raiders ARE coming off a win, but they're still the Raiders. The Rams win it.
Panthers (3-7-1) at Vikings (4-7): Carolina-An NFC South team has to win a game eventually, right? It's ridiculous how none of those four teams is capable of beating a team from outside the division. This might be the best chance of that happening. And, amazingly, it could move the Panthers into first place. At 4-7-1.
Saints (4-7) at Steelers (7-4): Pittsburgh-The Saints were 4-4 going into a three-game homestand. I don't know what's more amazing about that homestand. That they went 0-3 or that they went 0-3 and somehow stayed in "first place" (that goes in parentheses because they haven't earned the right to be in the same category as New England, Denver and Arizona). I actually think the Saints are the least-bad team in the NFC South, but they're not going to win in Pittsburgh.
Bengals (7-3-1) at Buccaneers (2-9): Cincinnati-Thanks to that ridiculous tie, the Bengals have a half-game lead on all three of their AFC North rivals. One of the reasons they have that lead is because they've taken care of business against the incredibly awful NFC South. That shouldn't change against Tampa Bay.
Giants (3-8) at Jaguars (1-10): Giants-That brutal stretch is finally over for the Giants. Yes, they've lost six in a row. But those six games were against Dallas (twice), Philadelphia, Indianapolis, San Francisco and Seattle. The standings say the Giants are 3-8, but they're much better than that record indicates. Those six teams are all better than them, but they held their own in each of those games. Now they get a break and play Jacksonville, which is where Tom Coughlin began his career as an NFL head coach. He gets one more win in Jacksonville and the losing streak comes to an end.
Chargers (7-4) at Ravens (7-4): Baltimore-This is one of the tougher ones to pick in the entire week. This is normally when San Diego gets rolling, but the Ravens looked mighty good on Monday night. They're both in the heart of the playoff race, with both the division and a wild card in play, so this game is very important for them both. I like Baltimore, though. The Chargers and 1:00 starts don't get along.
Titans (2-9) at Texans (5-6): Houston-If the Colts ever gave them any sort of an opening, the Texans would be legitimate playoff contenders. But as it is, it's kind of ridiculous to see Houston's name on the AFC playoff list right now. The best they can do is 10-6, and that might not even be enough. Anyway, point is, the Texans have to win out if they want to have any shot. That starts with beating the Titans at home.
Cardinals (9-2) at Falcons (4-7): Arizona-A battle of "first place" teams in Atlanta. The Cardinals were brought down to Earth a little bit with that thumping they took in Seattle, but their defense actually played pretty well against the Seahawks, which is an encouraging sign moving forward. With a win here, they equal last season's win total that wasn't enough to get them a wild card. One tidbit about Atlanta being in "first place" that makes it even more of a joke...the Falcons are 4-0 in the division and 0-7 against the rest of the NFL. They'd better not make the playoffs as a 6-10 "division winner."
Patriots (9-2) at Packers (8-3): Green Bay-The two hottest teams in football. Something's gotta give. Tom Brady is being smart with the way he's handling things, telling Patriots fans that they're still a long way from the Super Bowl. A loss might be exactly what New England needs. And if the Packers don't get them, there's a definite possibility that the Patriots run the table. It'll be high-scoring, so it'll depend on which defense shows up. I just have a feeling it's going to be Green Bay's. If the game wasn't in Lambeau, I'd probably be leaning the other way.
Broncos (8-3) at Chiefs (7-4): Denver-Believe it or not, the Raiders did Denver a huge favor last week by beating the Chiefs. That kept the Broncos in first place heading into their Sunday night showdown in Kansas City. Last year, this one got flexed into a Sunday night and the Broncos knocked off the undefeated Chiefs. Of course, a Kansas City victory creates a first-place tie, but I just don't see Denver letting that happen.
Dolphins (6-5) at Jets (2-9): Miami-If they hadn't hit it yet, the Bills game in Detroit might've been rock bottom for the J-E-T-S. Everything was set up in their favor on Monday night, and they looked like they thought the game was still in Buffalo. This Monday night shouldn't be much different. The Dolphins can't afford a loss here if they want to be a factor in the playoff race come December.
Last Week: 12-3
Season: 111-64-1
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