Don't worry, we'll talk about A-Rod. Just not today. First we've gotta preview the one event that sneaks up on you every single year. It's time for the Australian Open, a tennis tournament played half a world away, where it's summer in the middle of January and where play starts in the afternoon, but it's actually the night before. But it's still the first Grand Slam of the year, and it often sets the tone for what we can expect as the tennis season plays out.
As the first Grand Slam of the year, the Australian Open is the toughest to predict. Many of the top players make their season debut here, so it's not like you can really use performance leading into the tournament as any sort of indicator. And if you're basing it on how they ended last season, top-ranked Serena Williams and Rafael Nadal would have to be viewed as the favorites. Although, the No. 2s, Victoria Azarenka and Novak Djokovic, have both won here two years in a row, so it would be a colossal mistake to count them out.
Since I always start by talking about the men, I figured I'd mix it up a little and discuss the women first. On paper, there are probably three favorites. Along with Serena and Vika, you've got Maria Sharapova, who's seeded third. Azarenka and Sharapova are on the same side of the draw, but Serena's draw isn't exactly easy. Her semifinal matchup would be against Li Na, who's made the finals here twice, including last year.
But I don't think Li will last to see Serena. She's in a very competitive quarter that features Germans Angelique Kerber and Sabine Lisicki, the Wimbledon finalist who upset Serena in London. Lisicki's my candidate for a breakout 2014, and I think that breakout starts here. She knocks off Li in the round of 16, then beats Kerber in the quarters to set up that semifinal matchup with Serena, who's only real challenge will come in the fourth round against either Aussie favorite Sam Stosur, who beat her in the 2012 US Open final, or Ana Ivanovic, a former finalist here. And by biggest challenge, I mean she might get taken to a tiebreak in one of the sets.
The bottom half of the draw is where things could get interesting, though. In addition to Azarenka and Sharapova, you've got Aggie Radwanska, Caroline Wozniacki, Jelena Jankovic and last year's semifinalist Sloane Stephens. Stephens had her big breakthrough by beating Serena here last year and has a lot of points to defend. But she's got a round of 16 matchup with Azarenka, then a quarter against the Radwanska-Wozniacki winner. That's a tough task to ask her to pull off. Especially since I don't think she's beating Azarenka.
Sharapova will have an easier time reaching that semi, but Vika will be battle-tested. For someone who hasn't lost in this tournament since 2011, I think battle-tested trumps rest. Azarenka gets back to the final. But who does she meet? I'd be hard-pressed to go against Serena, setting the stage for another classic Grand Slam final between these two. Expect this is Australia. This is Vika's house. A third straight title for Azarenka.
Speaking of third straight titles, Novak Djokovic always wins here in much the same way Rafael Nadal always wins the French Open. And all the heavy-hitters on the men's side ended up in the top half of the draw, leaving Djokovic's path to another final very clear. He's got some guys he'll have to worry about--guys like Tomas Berdych and David Ferrer and Stan Wawrinka. But none of them are going to win three sets against Djokovic in the Melbourne heat. His stamina and incredible fitness are two of the reasons why he always plays so well here. As for the other semifinalist on the bottom half, I'll say Berdych.
Now to the loaded top half. I thought it was some sort of rule that Federer and Nadal have to meet in the earliest round possible of every Grand Slam tournament. So, I was taken by surprise that they can't meet until the semis here, despite Roger being all the way down at No. 6. It's no secret that 2013 wasn't a good year for Roger Federer. It's also no secret that his best tennis is behind him. But as long as he continues to play, Roger Federer is a threat to make a deep run at any Grand Slam tournament he enters (and it's still going to be a surprise when he doesn't).
The other names on the top half include Andy Murray, a three-time finalist here (including last year), Juan Martin Del Potro, the ubertalented 2009 US Open champ, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, who's back after missing the end of last season with an injury, and Lleyton Hewitt. Hewitt's days as a threat at a Grand Slam are behind him, but he's an Aussie favorite and can always be counted on to win a few matches and provide plenty of excitement along the way. We've got plenty of exciting potential matchups like Nadal-Hewitt, the winner of that vs. Del Potro, Tsonga-Federer and the winner of that vs. Murray. But I've got to go with the two players who've been the most consistent. The two players who've combined to win four of the last five Grand Slams. Nadal and Murray.
So do we have another Nadal-Djokovic Grand Slam final in store? I'd be hard-pressed to bet against it. Nadal-Murray would be a fun semifinal to watch. But just like it's hard to see somebody taking three sets off Djokovic, it's hard to see anybody taking three sets off Nadal. Which means, "Yes." We will have another Nadal-Djokovic Grand Slam final. And it'll probably be another epic, just like the 2012 final. This one will end the same way that one did. This is Novak Djokovic's tournament.
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