Saturday, October 6, 2012

NFL Week 5 Picks

13-2.  That's more like it.  Last week more than made up for my dismal performance in Week 3.  And just when it looks like I've gotten back on track, I go and take the Cardinals on Thursday night, only to see them get thoroughly spanked around by the Rams.  OK, so I'm 0-1 for this week already.  No big deal.  Although some of the other matchups are kinda scary.

Dolphins (1-3) at Bengals (3-1): Cincinnati-The Cardinals almost lost their undefeated record last week against the Dolphins.  It took a late Kevin Kolb miracle and an overtime field goal for Arizona to pull it out.  Despite their 1-3 record, Miami is encouraging.  I think this team's going to be pretty good.  I've really been impressed with the Bengals, though.  They've won three straight since getting slaughtered by the Ravens on the opening Monday night.  Make it four.

Packers ("2-2") at Colts (1-2): Green Bay-A few years ago, there's no question that this game would've been a primetime matchup instead of the early FOX regional game it is.  Maybe the Packers aren't as good as we all thought.  Sure they technically should be 3-1, but they were lucky to escape against the Saints last week.  The Andrew Lucks are well-rested after getting an early bye last week, so Green Bay's going to have its hands full again.  I think the Packers pull out another close one, though.  (If you're one of those people who picks using the spread, you might want to take Indy.)

Ravens (3-1) at Chiefs (1-3): Baltimore-It's going to be quite a day in Baltimore on Sunday.  First the Ravens play at 1, then the Orioles host the Yankees in the ALDS at 6.  Out of those two, the more likely to win is the football team.  The Ravens survived their incredibly short week (why did they play on Thursday after a Sunday night game?), and now they'll play a Kansas City team that they should beat anyway with plenty of rest.  This one could get ugly.

Browns (0-4) at Giants (2-2): Giants-Wait, the Giants are playing on a Sunday afternoon?  What's going on here?  It's kind of ridiculous to think that this is just their second Sunday afternoon game of the season.  Perhaps the best news of all is that it's not a division game on NBC.  The Giants are 0-2 in those this season.  They won't overlook a Browns team that gave the Ravens a game in Baltimore, but they should come away with the victory.

Eagles (3-1) at Steelers (1-2): Pittsburgh-Fun fact about this matchup: with both rosters depleted because of World War II, these two teams actually joined forces for a year as the "Pennsylvania Steagles" in 1944.  The 2012 version of Eagles-Steelers is up there with Broncos-Patriots as one of the games of the week.  The Steelers are coming off an early bye that, frankly, they needed.  That defense is really banged up, which might help explain the loss to the Raiders.  Things don't get any easier with the Eagles coming to town, but a rested Pittsburgh team that's desperate for a win is dangerous.  They also need a win to keep pace with the Ravens and Bengals in the AFC North.  That's why I'm taking the Steelers.

Falcons (4-0) at Redskins (2-2): Atlanta-With the Cardinals' loss, the Falcons are now the only undefeated team in the NFC.  That Arizona-St. Louis game should be a wake-up call to Atlanta, since they're also playing a road game against an underrated, improving team.  As a result, the Falcons aren't going to take the Redskins for granted.  I'm curious as to why they scheduled the Nationals-Cardinals game for the same time as this one, but that's a question for MLB, not the NFL.  It doesn't really impact my life, but I do feel kind of torn for Washington fans.

Seahawks ("2-2") at Panthers (1-3): Seattle-For some reason, I think Seattle is going to win, even though everything seems to point in Carolina's favor.  The Panthers almost (and probably should've) beaten the Falcons last week, while the Seahawks became the first of the Rams' successive division victims.  And Seattle has to fly cross-country the week after traveling to St. Louis.  Again, everything points to a Panthers win.  Yet I'm taking the Seahawks anyway.

Bears (3-1) at Jaguars (1-3): Chicago-I saw today that Jacksonville has switched its primary home uniform from teal jersey and white pants to all black.  I'm not really sure why, seeing as they play in Florida and they suck (which means they never get a night game), but I found it interesting nonetheless.  All of that talk about Jacksonville was just stalling before I officially say that the Bears will slaughter them.

Titans (1-3) at Vikings (3-1): Minnesota-Alright, I give.  Minnesota's good.  The Vikings have already equaled last season's win total and are tied with the Bears for first place.  More impressively, they've beaten two playoff teams in the last two weeks, including a win in Detroit last week.  I think this one will be close, but I do see the Vikings pulling it out to move to 4-1.

Broncos (2-2) at Patriots (2-2): New England-Our Manning vs. Brady matchup comes early this year with a couple new wrinkles--it's not on Sunday night and Peyton, of course, doesn't have a horseshoe on his helmet.  Denver seems to draw a tough matchup every week, and this week is no exception.  The Patriots didn't wake up until the second half last week against the Bills...and promptly scored 30 points in the fourth quarter.  That moved New England into a tie for first, which puts them in a little better position than Denver right now.  Seeing as the Patriots' only previous home game this season was that shocking loss to Arizona in Week 2, I'm hesitant to pick Denver.  Although, if anybody can get into the Patriots' heads, it's Peyton Manning.

Bills (2-2) at 49ers (3-1): San Francisco-As I predicted, the loss to Minnesota was just an abberation.  And the 49ers took out their frustrations on the Jets.  The Bills, meanwhile, looked like they were going to drop New England to 1-3 until the Patriots finally showed up in the fourth quarter.  This is the first of three straight home games for the 49ers, who can move into a tie for first win a win.  Look for that to happen.

Chargers (3-1) at Saints (0-4): San Diego-I'm sure the NFL and NBC thought this was going to be a good, competitive game between two good teams when they set it as this week's Sunday night game.  As it turns out, if not for Drew Brees, it might've been a candidate to get flexed out if it were later in the season.  Brees is certain to make history and break Johnny Unitas's record for consecutive games with a touchdown pass, and the fact that it'll come against his former team definitely adds to the story, but it doesn't change the fact that the Saints are a mess.  I see New Orleans sitting at 0-5 during its bye next week.

Texans (4-0) at Jets (2-2): Houston-The good news for the Jets is that things probably can't get any worse (at least on the field) than they were in last week's shellacking by San Francisco.  Although a dysfunctional team that's desperate for headlines made plenty during the week, especially now that Santonio Holmes is out for the season.  They're not going to beat Houston.  The only question is how long will it take for everybody who starts off watching the football game to switch to Yankees-Orioles?

Last Week: 13-2
This Week: 0-1
Season: 44-20

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