After one of the craziest weeks of Division Series play I've ever seen, we've finally arrived at the AL and NLCS. All five Division Series went the distance for the first time ever, and each one played out in a strange way.
The Reds won the first two games of their series in San Francisco, and it looked certain that Cincinnati would advance. All they had to do was win a home game. But they couldn't do it. The Giants won all three games in Cincinnati to win the series. That's gotta be the first Division Series in history where the home team failed to win a game, and I'm sure the Reds are probably the only team ever to use five different starting pitchers in a five-game postseason series. Those pesky St. Louis Cardinals have become that team nobody wants to face in the postseason. The fifth-best team in the National League, they only got into the playoffs because of the stupid second wild card, then beat the Braves on the road. St. Louis bludgeoned Washington pitching in Games 2 and 3 of the Division Series until Jayson Werth tied the series. Then Washington took a 6-0 lead in Game 5, and it looked like the Nationals were going to advance until the top of the ninth, when St. Louis put up a four-spot to move on. This team won't go away.
Over in the American League, the Tigers certainly seemed to have the upper-hand on the A's until Oakland's ridiculous walk-off magic continued in Game 4. That almost led you to believe the A's, playing at home, had some hope in Game 5. But fortunately for Detroit, this guy named Verlander pitched Game 5. Then there was that other little team that could--the Baltimore Orioles. In a series where nobody on either team hit (not just A-Rod), the Yankees couldn't shake the Orioles, just like they couldn't shake them the entire month of September. After two extra-inning games, a much-publicized benching, and late-game heroics from the unlikeliest of October heroes, the Yankees called on their ace to finally vanquish that scrappy bunch of birds. And CC delivered a gem.
Which brings us to a pair of LCS matchups where three of the four participants just happen to be the last three teams to win the World Series. I was an out away from going four-for-four in my Division Series picks, although I'm quickly learning that picking against St. Louis isn't necessarily the smartest of ideas.
ALCS: Yankees vs. Tigers
Heading into the playoffs, it certainly looked like the ALCS matchup, and it's the series most people wanted to see. The Tigers are built for October, which makes them a dangerous out no matter who they're playing. Had the Yankees finished off the Orioles in four, I would've said that Detroit was going to be at an incredible disadvantage by not having Verlander available until Game 3, but the Yankees had to use CC in Game 5 against Baltimore, so he can't start until Game 3, either, rendering that advantage moot. It also would've led me to say that if the Yankees were going to win this series, they'd have to do it in six and avoid Verlander in Game 7. But with dueling aces in a winner-take-all game, that's no longer a consideration either. (Although, we saw what happened with that plan when these two met in the Division Series last season.)
So, how do I see this series playing out? Well, if the Yankees are going to have any shot, they need to actually start hitting. And I'm not just talking about A-Rod. It really bothers me that he was singled-out when Cano, Swisher and Granderson equally sucked for the entire Orioles series. (For the record, yes, A-Rod will play in Game 1. You're not going to turn a $30 million-a-year guy into a bench player.) They survived Baltimore because their pitching was lights out (or the Orioles offense was equally inept). The Yankees won't win this series if Derek Jeter, Mark Teixeira, Raul Ibanez and Ichiro are the only guys who hit.
The Tigers offense, meanwhile, consists of much more than just two guys (both of whom happen to be really good). That lineup is obviously built around Cabrera and Fielder, but it also appears to be slump-proof. Yankee pitching isn't going to shut down Detroit the way it shut down Baltimore.
I still think it most likely comes down to pitching, though. The Tigers beat the Yankees last year because they got a great start from Doug Fister in Game 5. Well, guess who's starting Game 1 for Detroit. (Although, he's taking on Andy Pettitte.) That lack of an off day for the Yankees might give the Tigers a slight upper hand. After Fister, they'll have the choice of Max Scherzer (who was great in Game 4 against Oakland) or Anibal Sanchez in Game 2, then Verlander in Game 3. But behind Pettitte, both Hiroki Kuroda and CC will have to go on short rest for the Yankees, although I like Phil Hughes in the big ballpark in Game 4. The bullpens are virtually even. I give the advantage to whichever team can get to the other one's starter first. Tigers in six.
NLCS: Giants vs. Cardinals
The only team that somewhat benefitted pitching-wise from going to a Game 5 was the Cardinals. That's because they weren't able to set up their rotation for the Division Series and Chris Carpenter started Game 3. Well, Carpenter will be available for Game 1 of the NLCS on regular rest, while San Francisco will have to go with either Madison Bumgarner or Ryan Vogelsong. The Giants can't use Matt Cain, who wasn't that good against Cincinnati, until Game 3 (although, like Sabathia and Verlander, that means he'll be on track to start Game 7, too, which isn't the worst thing for San Francisco).
St. Louis once again is relying on a bunch of no-name guys. Daniel DeScalso? Pete Kozma? But the heart of that order with Carlos Beltran, Matt Holliday, Yadier Molina and David Freese is very scary. These never-say-die Cardinals lost Albert (and Lance Berkman and Rafael Furcal) and got back to the NLCS. Who saw that coming?
Again, I'm finally learning better than going against St. Louis, but the Giants have the clear advantage on paper. San Francisco's lineup is much stronger top-to-bottom, even without Melky Cabrera (and I applaud their decision not to activate him for the NLCS, even though his suspension is over). Buster Posey's an MVP candidate, the Panda is nothing like the guy who got benched during the World Series run two years ago, and Crawford in the eight-hole has really solidified the bottom of the lineup the same way Pagan and Scutaro have at the top.
I really like San Francisco, though. Just think about it, the Giants' pitching is so strong that Tim Lincecum was in the bullpen for the Division Series. And since the Cardinals lost Jaime Garcia in Game 2 of the Washington series, they're going to have to use Lance Lynn as a starter, which is a blow to both their rotation and their bullpen. The San Francisco lineup, rotation and bullpen are all stronger. And let's not forget, the Giants are just as battle-tested. They knocked off the Phillies in the NLCS en route to the title two years ago. The Giants used a little October magic of their own against the Reds. They might be the only team capable of holding off St. Louis' crazy postseason karma. Giants in seven. (My World Series pick two weeks before the playoffs started, and again at the beginning of the Division Series was Giants-Tigers. Why change now?)
No comments:
Post a Comment