The Daytona 500 is tomorrow, which means we've arrived at a new NASCAR season. Of course, the biggest story in NASCAR this year will be Danica Patrick, as she makes the move from IndyCar to a full-time schedule in the Nationwide Series. Danica will also race in a handful of Cup races, starting with Daytona. I don't think the move was the best thing for her, both competitively and professionally. She was the face of IndyCar. In NASCAR, she'll be just another driver (although, she'll still be quite a draw). And I think her chances of sustained success in NASCAR aren't as good as they were in IndyCar. (I'd also be willing to bet that the IndyCar drivers probably aren't going to miss her that much.)
Anyway, I don't want this post to be all about Danica. Since she chose to officially enter the Nationwide Series, she's only eligible for that championship, and any points she earns in Cup races don't count. Among the drivers that are eligible for the Sprint Cup, I think there are several that have legitimate title hopes. And now that somebody was finally able to figure out how to stop Jimmie Johnson's domination of the Chase, we could actually get a pretty serious battle for the championship.
Tony Stewart was the man to stop Jimmie Johnson's string of five straight Sprint Cup titles, winning his third career points championship last season. His 2011 championship was made even more impressive because Stewart won the title as an owner-driver, becoming the first owner-driver to win the championship since the late Alan Kulwicki in 1992. Stewart has to be counted among the favorites to win the Sprint Cup this year, as well. He's remarkably consistent and a contender to win every week. In addition, he knows how to stay out of trouble on the track. Remarkably, he's never won the Daytona 500. He'll be starting third on Sunday, and a victory in the Great American Race would set him up nicely in his title defense.
Carl Edwards lost the championship on a tiebreaker last year. He finished with the same number of points as Stewart, but won fewer races. That means Edwards had an average finish that was actually better than Stewart's in 2011. Everybody knows how talented Carl Edwards is. Coming so close to the championship last year only makes him want it that much more. I also think it'll make him a little more aggressive on the track and more willing to take risks. However, those risks can also be what lead to accidents, and accidents ruin championship chances. I'm also curious to see how Edwards will do focusing on just the Cup Series after so many years of racing the full Cup schedule and full Nationwide schedule. I hate "Buschwhacking" (I'll continue to use that term even thought it's not called the Busch Series anymore), but there's no disputing the fact that, as a Cup driver, Carl Edwards benefitted from driving in the Nationwide race every Saturday.
Talent-wise, Kyle Busch is one of the best drivers in the garage. But his immaturity has been holding him back. And everybody knows it. He was actually suspended for a Cup race last season for intentionally wrecking another driver in the truck series. Kyle Busch is going to contend for the win every week. He's also one of the top candidates to be involved in a wreck (that he'll probably cause, but blame somebody else for) every week. He needs to grow up in order to be taken seriously as a Cup contender. If that happens, he'll be among the favorites all season. Busch got off to a good start by winning the Budweiser Shootout.
Jimmie Johnson's dominant run of five straight Sprint Cup titles came to an end last season. He'd obviously consider 2011 to be a "down year," but I think it's just a sign that the new points system works. Johnson had 21 Top 10's last season (compared to 23 in 2010) and only had two DNF's (he had four DNF's in 2010). But he only had two wins, and winning is rewarded more under the new system. So, last season was really more of a lesson. Just settling for Top 10's isn't enough anymore. And it shouldn't be. Even still, Johnson's best tracks are the ones used in the Chase, so the key to beating him is building a big enough cushion during the 26-race "regular season." While he's not going to dominate NASCAR anymore, Johnson still has to be considered a title contender every season. Especially if he goes into the Chase within striking distance of the leader.
The fifth guy that I think is primed for a big season is Kevin Harvick. Harvick has emerged as one of the most consistent drivers on the series, and you can count on him to finish every race (he only has four DNF's in the last five years). Harvick also has seven wins in the last two seasons, and his average finish last year was a very impressive 11.5. He's finished third in points two years in a row and has one of the best owners in the sport in Richard Childress. It's only a matter of time before Kevin Harvick wins the Sprint Cup. He just needs to put everything together and get a little luck. He's already got the first part down. If the luck comes, he might be racing for a title at Homestead in November.
Those are the five drivers I'm keeping an eye on as favorites for the 2012 Sprint Cup, but the Chase includes 12 guys, and I expect a lot of the usual suspects to join them in the Chase. Jeff Gordon is still capable of winning races, but I don't think he's a championship contender anymore. Denny Hamlin and Kasey Kahne could be sleepers. Like his brother, Kurt Busch is supremely talented, but also extremely combustible. Matt Kenseth's a defending series champion, and he finished fourth in the points standings last year, so he can't be ignored. Clint Bowyer finished just out of the Chase last year, mainly because of some early-season bad luck. He could definitely be in the mix. I know there are a lot of people hoping that Dale Earnhardt, Jr.'s results eventually measure up to his popularity. I don't think they ever will. He'll be lucky to get into the Chase. Trevor Bayne won Daytona last year, when he wasn't even competing on the Sprint Cup Series! He's running a full schedule and eligible for the championship this year, so he's got to at least be the preseason favorite for Rookie of the Year. And then there's always those one or two guys who come out of nowhere and qualify for the Chase, like David Reutimann last year.
The beauty of NASCAR is that there are 36 races, and a number of different drivers are capable of winning each week. But the Sprint Cup is a reward for consistency as much as winning. Wins are what it's all about, but the guy who's able to put together wins, luck and consistency will be the one that wins the title. And your guess as to who that's going to be is as good as mine.
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