Wednesday, February 22, 2012

2012 Women's Tournament Projection

Yesterday I gave you a look at what teams I think will be in the men's NCAA Tournament field.  Today, it's time for the women.  Unlike the men's bracket, which is going to feature a bunch of mid-major teams receiving at-large bids, I think there will be very few at-large bids given to mid-major teams on the women's side.  Now, teams like Delaware and Green Bay (and probably Florida Gulf Coast, too) are obviously going to be in the Tournament no matter what.  But those teams are so dominant in their conferences that I find it extremely hard to believe they'll lose in their conference tournaments.  The "bubble" teams in the BCS conferences have to be hoping the same thing.  In fact, the only non-BCS at-large team I have on the women's side is Temple, which plays in the Atlantic 10, which isn't really a mid-major league (sidebar about Temple: today they started talks about joining the Big East; I said that the Big East should add Temple months ago).

Anyway, the four best women's team in the nation are clear.  Baylor, Stanford, UConn and Notre Dame have already locked up the No. 1 seeds.  It's really just a matter of who's the overall No. 2, 3 and 4 behind Baylor.  Another note about my women's bracket before we proceed: I hate the tournament committee's insistence that teams go to the closest regional to where their school is, regardless of what other teams are there.  Last year, Texas A&M had to play conference-rival Baylor (for the fourth time!) in a regional final.  That shouldn't happen to the two best teams in the same conference.  The two best teams in the Big East last season were UConn and Notre Dame.  They played each other in the Final Four.  That's where the top two teams in a conference should meet.  The women really need to institute the men's rule where the top three teams in a conference are automatically placed in different regions.

Now that I've gotten that off my chest, time for some bracketology:

DES MOINES
Baton Rouge: 1-Baylor (1) vs. 16-Southern; 9-Iowa at 8-LSU
Little Rock: 4-Georgetown vs. 13-Florida Gulf Coast; 5-St. Bonaventure vs. 12-San Diego State
College Park: 14-Marist at 3-Maryland; 6-St. John's vs. 11-Princeton
Ames: 7-Nebraska at 10-Iowa State; 2-Kentucky vs. 15-Cal Poly

RALEIGH
Notre Dame: 16-Liberty at 1-Notre Dame (4); 8-Middle Tennessee vs. 9-Florida
Tallahassee: 4-Georgia Tech vs. 13-South Dakota State; 5-Kansas State vs. 12-UTEP
Bowling Green: 3-Penn State vs. 14-Toledo; 6-South Carolina vs. 11-West Virginia
Norfolk: 7-Louisville vs. 10-Temple; 2-Duke vs. 15-Eastern Illinois

FRESNO
Nashville: 1-Stanford (2) vs. 16-Florida A&M; 9-Michigan at 8-Vanderbilt
Chicago: 4-Delaware vs. 13-Missouri State; 12-Kansas at 5-DePaul
Spokane: 3-Ohio State vs. 14-Sacred Heart; 6-Arkansas at 11-Gonzaga
Norman: 10-Fresno State at 7-Oklahoma; 2-Miami vs. 15-Eastern Washington

KINGSTON
Bridgeport: 1-Connecticut (3) vs. 16-American; 8-Virginia vs. 9-California
West Lafayette: 4-Georgia vs. 13-Appalachian State; 12-Texas Tech at 5-Purdue
College Station: 14-Central Arkansas at 3-Texas A&M; 6-Green Bay vs. 11-Michigan State
Chapel Hill: 7-Rutgers at 10-North Carolina; 2-Tennessee vs. 15-Albany

And our matchups in the Final Four: DES MOINES vs. RALEIGH; FRESNO vs. KINGSTON

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