Happy New Year everybody! As 2012 begins, the 2011 NFL regular season ends. And as we enter Week 17, we know very little about the playoffs. Sure, we know nine of the 12 teams that will be there, but a grand total of two teams have been locked into their positions, and seven teams are still alive for the final three spots. It's going to result in a crazy Week 17, which consists of just divisional matchups for the second straight year. Of the 16 games being played this weekend, 12 of them have some bearing on the playoff race. Let's start with those four:
Colts (2-13) at Jaguars (4-11): Indianapolis-After not winning for three and a half months, the Colts did it twice in five days. As a result, they might end up losing the No. 1 pick that seemed theirs for the taking all season. Of all their good streaks that the Colts have seen snapped this season, they still have a chance to keep one alive. They've never finished with a losing record in the AFC South. Believe it or not, Indy's actually the team with the momentum entering this game. In order to keep the No. 1 pick, they're going to need a Rams loss, because I think the Colts end the season on a three-game winning streak.
Bears (7-8) at Vikings (3-12): Chicago-This game would be a lot more interesting if the Bears had signed Donovan McNabb. I thought they might give the Packers a game on Christmas night. Instead they were embarrassed and put Atlanta into the playoffs. Chicago's been in a free fall since Jay Cutler got hurt. Minnesota managed a win last week. Who's going to win? Who cares? (For the record, I'm going with the Bears to end up .500.)
Redskins (5-10) at Eagles (7-8): Philadelphia-The Winter Classic will be played at Citizens Bank Park on Monday because Lincoln Financial Field is being used for this meaningless football game. With a win, the Eagles can actually finish .500 and salvage second place in the NFC East. In December, Philly has looked like the team everyone expected them to be this season. There's no way the Eagles lose this game.
Seahawks (7-8) at Cardinals (7-8): Arizona-Last season, the 6-9 Seahawks played the 7-8 Rams for the NFC West title in the final game. With a win, Seattle became the first sub-.500 playoff team in NFL history. That's obviously not going to happen again this year, seeing as the 49ers clinched the division weeks ago. But the winner of this one finishes in a very quiet second-place with a respectable 8-8 record (maybe the NFC West isn't as bad as everybody thinks). I think that's going to be Arizona, my early pick for 2012's sleeper team.
Now on to the games affecting the AFC playoff race (which is virtually all of them):
Bills (6-9) at Patriots (12-3): New England-I'm starting with the only easy one. With a win, the Patriots clinch home field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs. The Bills, who at one point this season were 5-2, snapped a seven-game losing streak with a 40-14 thumping of the Tebows in the snow last week. They also beat New England earlier this season. The last time that happened, the Patriots beat them 31-0 in Foxboro in the season finale. Don't be surprised if that happens again. The road to the Super Bowl in the AFC goes through New England.
Steelers (11-4) at Browns (4-11): Pittsburgh-Things are also simple for Pittsburgh. They need a win and a Ravens loss to win the AFC North. If not, they're the No. 5 seed and hit the road next weekend. Seeing as they play in a division that could end up with three playoff teams, drawing the only one that definitely won't be is a huge advantage for the Steelers. Ben Roethlisberger didn't play last week. They were playing the Rams, so it didn't matter. He's probable this week, but it doesn't matter again. The Steelers will take care of their business, then wait and see what happens in Cincinnati.
Ravens (11-4) at Bengals (9-6): Cincinnati-This is the closest thing there is to a playoff game in the AFC this week. If Baltimore wins, they've achieved their sole mission for this season: winning the AFC North and getting a home playoff game. If Cincinnati wins, the Bengals are going to the playoffs (who'd a thunk it at the beginning of the year that you could have Houston, Detroit, Cincinnati and either Denver or Oakland all in the playoffs?). The Ravens went 8-0 at home this season, making that postseason home game all the more important. The Bengals also know the importance of this game, and good for them for getting the sellout! I'm really torn about this game. I think Baltimore's the best team in the AFC, but if the Bengals win, it's makes everyone's life easier, as we'll avoid the potential four-way tiebreaker for one wild card spot. This one really could go either way. I've been a Bengals hater all season, but I've come around. Go Cincy!
Chiefs (6-9) at Tebows (8-7): Denver-Denver had a chance to clinch the AFC West last week, but got clobbered in Buffalo. As a result, the Tebows are now tied with Oakland for the division lead. Denver owns the tiebreaker, though, so the Tebows just need to beat Kansas City at home to clinch a trip to the playoffs. But the Chiefs are a completely different team under Romeo Crennel. They ended the Packers' undefeated season, then took the Raiders to overtime last week. This'll be a tough one, but with that amped-up hometown crowd and the potential to clinch a playoff berth, the Tebows snap their two-game losing streak.
Chargers (7-8) at Raiders (8-7): Oakland-I don't know how, but San Diego has been eliminated from playoff contention even if the AFC West finishes in a three-way tie at 8-8. The Raiders need a win and a Chiefs win to clinch the division. Oakland's still in the hunt for a wild card, but need a win, a loss by Cincinnati and a whole bunch of other stuff to happen in that case. The only thing the Raiders can control is whether or not they win, which I think they will.
Titans (8-7) at Texans (10-5): Tennessee-The only thing we know in the AFC is that the Texans will be the No. 3 seed and play whoever comes out of this wild card jumble. So, it's a distinct possibility that the Titans could play back-to-back games in Houston for the first time since they were the Oilers. The Titans appear to be third in line for that wild card berth, but trying to figure all that out just gives me a headache. Does anyone outside of Nashville even know that they still have a chance at the playoffs? Meanwhile, Houston's limping into the playoffs, having lost two straight to not very good teams (Carolina and Indianapolis). All the stars appear to be lining up for a Titans victory.
Jets (8-7) at Dolphins (5-10): Jets-I can't believe it took me three weeks to make a "Tony Sparano Got Whacked" joke. Now that I've gotten that out of the way, the Jets certainly haven't looked like a playoff team in the last two weeks. As a result, they probably won't be, although there's still an extremely outside possibility that they could somehow make it. But they need a win and losses by Cincinnati, Tennessee and at least one of the AFC West teams. For some reason, I think Rex Ryan will succeed in getting the Jets up for this game and doing everything they need to do. But it won't be enough.
Fortunately, things are a little clearer in the NFC:
49ers (12-3) at Rams (2-13): San Francisco-Ladies and gentlemen, the San Francisco 49ers are back! For San Francisco, the mission is simple: beat the Rams, earn a bye. Otherwise, the Saints can overtake them for the No. 2 seed in the playoffs. I don't see the 49ers winning in New Orleans, so beating the hapless Rams is a must. If the Rams win, they avoid the No. 1 pick. St. Louis should start listening to trade offers for Andrew Luck, because the 49ers are going to win.
Panthers (6-9) at Saints (12-3): New Orleans-The Saints have convinced themselves they can win on the road in the playoffs. Even though I think they're the second-best team in football, I'm not sure about that. The reason that they give is their running game. The Saints have a running game? Drew Brees throws the ball on every freakin' down! Anyway, New Orleans needs a win and a San Francisco loss to avoid playing next week. They'll take care of their part in that scenario.
Buccaneers (4-11) at Falcons (9-6): Atlanta-Fortunately, the Falcons clinched a playoff berth before they even took the field last week. 'Cause they got thumped pretty badly in New Orleans. As a result, the Falcons now know that they'll be hitting the road as a wild card team next weekend. The only question is where are they going? The only way to avoid the No. 6 seed (and potentially a return trip to the Big Easy) is to win and have the Packers beat the Lions. Since that's an early game (as are 49ers-Rams and Saints-Panthers) and Falcons-Bucs is a late game, Atlanta could know where it's going before even taking the field. Tampa Bay's a mess. They'll end the season with a 10-game losing streak that costs Raheem Morris his job.
Lions (10-5) at Packers (14-1): Green Bay-This is the only Week 17 matchup between teams that are definitely going to the playoffs, although it means relatively little in the grand scheme of things. The Lions did themselves a huge favor by wrapping up a playoff spot last week and not having to rely on winning in Lambeau to get in. The Thanksgiving game was competitive and proved that the Lions definitely deserve their place in the playoffs. Neither team is playing for much. The Packers locked up home field last week, and I really don't think it matters to the Lions who they play next weekend. As for Green Bay, they can, and will, tie the NFC record for wins by finishing the season 15-1 (joining the 1984 49ers, 1985 Bears and 1998 Vikings).
Cowboys (8-7) at Giants (8-7): Giants-The only winner-take-all matchup of Week 17 is the final game of the 2011 NFL regular season. It's the second Giants-Cowboys matchup on Sunday Night Football in four weeks. The first one was a classic, as the Giants won 38-35 to move into first place. They responded by laying an egg against Washington the next week, but rebounded to beat the Jets on Christmas Eve. Dallas beat Tampa Bay right after the loss to the Giants, but their loss to the Eagles last week put us right back where we started. The Giants seem to play to the level of their competition, which bodes well for them in the rematch with Dallas. After 15 games, I still don't know what to make of the Cowboys. They had their fate in their hands, then got completely dominated by the Eagles. Adding injury to insult, Tony Romo was knocked out of the game. I'll be shocked if he doesn't play on Sunday, but you know Jason Pierre-Paul and Justin Tuck are going to go after that hand. Of their three division opponents, it seems to be the Cowboys that always brings out the best in the Giants. That home crowd's going to make a HUGE difference. The Cowboys began the season with a loss to the Jets at MetLife Stadium on Sunday Night Football. They'll end it with a loss to the Giants at MetLife Stadium on Sunday Night Football. Except this time, it'll keep Dallas out of the playoffs. The Giants win this week and host the first playoff game in MetLife Stadium history next week against either the Falcons or Lions.
Last Week: 13-3
Season: 156-84
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