Friday, December 9, 2011

Week 14 Picks

The NFL season is headed down the stretch.  But even with just four weeks left, there's still a lot that we don't know.  Who's the best team in the AFC?  Is Denver actually going to make the playoffs?  Will the Colts manage to win a game?  Most of all, who's going to make the playoffs?  There are four teams fighting for the other AFC wild card berth, while the NFC wild card race is down to a Bears team without a quarterback, a Lions team that can't stop committing stupid penalties, a schizophrenic Falcons team, a Giants team that's capable of beating (or losing to) anybody, and the Dallas Cowboys, who are being their usual confusing selves.  This week's Giants-Cowboys game should help clear things up in the NFC a little, but probably not that much, especially since the other Giants-Cowboys game is in Week 17.

That game's not until Sunday night, so it comes at the end of our weekly installment.  As for the rest:

Texans (9-3) at Bengals (7-5): Houston-The Texans can all but clinch their first-ever division title (and playoff berth) with a win and a Titans loss this week.  Cincinnati somehow still holds the tiebreaker among that group of 7-5 teams for the remaining AFC playoff spot.  But the Bengals haven't exactly been impressive against playoff-bound division foes Pittsburgh and Baltimore this season.  It'll take a miracle for Houston to NOT make the playoffs, so Cincinnati needs to win this game a lot more than the Texans do.  But Houston beat Atlanta last week with T.J. Yates at quarterback, so I'm not betting against them.

Vikings (2-10) at Lions (7-5): Detroit-I have two bits of good news for the Lions: 1. They're not on national TV this week, and 2. They're not playing a playoff-bound opponent.  Even without Ndamukong Suh, beating the Vikings shouldn't be a problem.  Which is a good thing, because they're on the outside looking in at the NFC playoffs right now.

Saints (9-3) at Titans (7-5): New Orleans-Is any team other than the Packers playing better football than New Orleans right now?  Talk about a team on a roll!  The Saints have a comfortable two-game lead in the NFC South, but need to keep winning in order to keep pace with San Francisco in the race for the No. 2 seed.  Tennessee somehow remains on the fringe of the AFC playoff race (I'm not sure how, just go with it) and needs a win to stay in the hunt.  A loss here all but knocks out the Titans, but Tennessee's not going to beat a Saints team that's playing this well.

Eagles (4-8) at Dolphins (4-8): Miami-It's been a good week in Miami.  The Marlins got Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle and Heath Bell.  So what if they didn't get Albert?  And the Panthers are in first place!  If it sounds like I don't care at all about the Dolphins-Eagles game, you're right.  But I've gotta pick somebody, so it might as well be Miami.

Chiefs (5-7) at Jets (7-5): Jets-Call me crazy, but I think the Jets have the best chance to make the playoffs of all those 7-5 teams in the AFC.  The Chiefs won't be a pushover, though.  Kansas City has surprisingly resembled a professional football team over the past few weeks, giving Pittsburgh a game, then getting that stunning win over the Bears in Chicago last week.  Kansas City's not going to make the playoffs, but definitely has that spoiler mentality.  The Jets can't take this game lightly, and I don't think they will.  Jets win.

Patriots (9-3) at Redskins (4-8): New England-I'm not sure how all the tiebreakers in the AFC work out, but the Patriots are the No. 1 seed in the conference right now.  With a win and a Jets loss, they'll clinch the division once again.  I'm not sure that happens, but the Patriots winning part certainly will.

Falcons (7-5) at Panthers (4-8): Carolina-Atlanta's seemingly safe playoff positioning got a little more precarious with a loss in Houston last week, but fortunately for the Falcons, the Bears, Lions, Cowboys and Giants all lost, too.  So, the only real damage done was adding one to the "L" column.  With a Monday night showdown against the Saints on the horizon the day after Christmas, the Falcons know they can't afford another loss if they want to win the NFC South.  Cam Newton had perhaps his best game as a pro last week against the Bucs, but Tampa Bay's not Atlanta.  The Falcons move to 8-5 and keep their hold on one of the NFC wild cards.

Buccaneers (4-8) at Jaguars (3-9): Tampa Bay-After making us watch Jacksonville on Monday night last week, the NFL's going to do it again with a Thursday night game next week (fortunately, in this case, I don't get NFL Network).  Anyway, in another one of this week's "Who cares?" games, I'll take Western Florida over Eastern Florida.

Colts (0-12) at Ravens (9-3): Baltimore-Playing first-place teams certainly isn't the recipe to pick up your first win of the season.  I've been saying somewhat sarcastically all season that I think Peyton deserves some MVP consideration, a topic that this week's NFL Magazine touched on.  More on that during the week.  Anyway, the Ravens are now in second place after the Steelers' win in Cleveland on Thursday night, but they'll jump right back into the division lead with a victory.  Against the Colts, that better happen.

Bears (7-5) at Broncos (7-5): Denver-The Bears conclude their tour through the AFC West against the Tebows.  I'm still not really sure how this is happening, but Denver can't lose and is actually in first place.  The Bears are a better team, but clearly need Jay Cutler a little more than everybody thought.  Chicago needs to figure out this quarterback thing soon or they'll be watching the playoffs.  Meanwhile, how long can Tebow actually keep this going?  I think one of the reason the Broncos have become "good" is because their opponents have to go from game planning for an actual NFL offense to game planning for the University of Florida.  It's going to stop working at some point.  But until it does, I'm not picking against the Broncos.  I've learned my lesson.

49ers (10-2) at Cardinals (5-7): San Francisco-The 49ers clinched their first division title since 2002 last week.  It might seem like they can mail it in for the final month of the season, but they're still fighting with the Saints for the No. 2 seed.  I'm not saying that they shouldn't rest their injured guys, though.  Doing that makes sense.  Keep them healthy for the playoffs.  Besides, I'm pretty sure they'll beat the Cardinals without Patrick Willis and Frank Gore.

Raiders (7-5) at Packers (12-0): Green Bay-CBS made this the doubleheader game.  Good call.  Let's watch the Packers as much as possible.  They're not going to go undefeated.  The Giants almost got them last week and gave everyone else the blueprint for how to beat Green Bay.  One of the most surprising teams of the season, Oakland dropped into a first-place tie with the Tebows after losing to the Dolphins last week.  That was a bad loss, but it didn't kill their playoff chances.  This is a good matchup and should be an entertaining game to watch, but the Raiders aren't going to be the team that knocks off the Packers.

Bills (5-7) at Chargers (5-7): San Diego-Remember when the Bills were 5-2?  Yeah, I don't either.  San Diego was also good at the beginning of the season, then lost six in a row.  The Chargers finally got back in the win column last week in Jacksonville and always play well in December, but they need to win out to even think about somehow winning the AFC West.  Beating the Bills will be a decent start.

Giants (6-6) at Cowboys (7-5): Giants-Believe it or not, the Giants are the only 6-6 team in the NFL.  And this week they finally end that brutal stretch where they play five first-place teams in six games.  So, in other words, I take that four-game losing streak with a game of salt.  Especially since the Giants are still in the thick of the playoff race.  In fact, with a win this week, they move back into first place.  They play again in Week 17, so this isn't a must-win for either team, but the Giants need to win a little bit more.  With a loss, they'll need to win out, which still might not be enough.  They're not both going to make the playoffs.  They both know that.  It's going to come down to their second meeting, but the winner of this one's going to own the tiebreaker going into that game.  Call me a homer, but I'm encouraged by last week's close game with the Packers.  I'm going with the Giants, who seem to play better in Jerry's World than the other two NFC East teams do.

Rams (2-10) at Seahawks (5-7): Seattle-Last year, these two played in Seattle in Week 17 and it was flexed into Sunday night.  A lot of people were pissed off about that, even though it was for the NFC West title.  That's certainly not the case this year (San Francisco has already clinched the division), but the NFL still decided we wanted to see this game so much that they put it on Monday night.  We finally get a decent Monday night game next week (Steelers-49ers).  Until then, we're stuck with this one.  It's in Seattle, so, Seahawks.

This Week: 1-0
Last Week: 11-5
Season: 123-70

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