I'm a sports guy with lots of opinions (obviously about sports mostly). I love the Olympics, baseball, football and college basketball. I couldn't care less about college football and the NBA. I started this blog in 2010, and the name "Joe Brackets" came from the Slice Man, who was impressed that I picked Spain to win the World Cup that year.
Thursday, August 31, 2023
An Interesting Turn of Events
Well, that's certainly not the case anymore! Just because teams are no longer allowed to make trades in August, the September 1 roster deadline to be eligible for postseason play still applies. And now the waivers aren't revokable, so if a team makes a claim, they get him. Which has actually made the month of August much more interesting.
Last month at the trade deadline, I noted that one of my issues with only having one at the end of July is that it's too early for teams to make a decision. With six playoff berths in each league, there are way too many teams still close enough to playoff position two weeks after the All*Star Break that they can't justify being sellers, but also far enough away to not think it's prudent to be buyers. Well, as it turns out, they can change their minds in August, and it might actually work out better!
It gives teams the chance to reevaluate. If they're in a better position than they thought, they can make some waiver claims. Likewise, if they had a bad August that dropped them out of contention, they can be realistic about it and see if there are any takers for some veterans who may or may not be high-priced, but somebody in the race thinks might help them down the stretch and in the postseason. Or they can treat it like a reset button.
That's what the Angels just did. In late July, they decided to hang on to Ohtani and were aggressive buyers, most notably getting Lucas Giolito from the White Sox. Giolito was awful with the Angels, Ohtani most likely needs another Tommy John, Mike Trout came back for one game then got hurt again, and they had the worst record in baseball in August (how is it possible they were worse than the Yankees?).
So what do the Angels do? They admit their mistake and put all those guys on waivers! Five weeks after being traded to the Angels, Giolito was picked up by Cleveland. The Guardians also got Matt Moore and Reynaldo Lopez, while Hunter Renfroe went to the Reds and Dominic Leone was claimed by Seattle. The Angels gutted their farm system to go all-in. A month later, they were getting rid of the same players they just acquired so that they can get under the luxury tax threshold.
Then there's the Yankees. They didn't do anything at the deadline, which didn't make sense for a team that was on the fringes of contention and badly needed to improve. Then August hit, they got even worse, and reality set in. So they also put some guys on waivers and committed to a youth movement. As a result, Harrison Bader is now a Cincinnati Red.
What's interesting about the Angels and Yankees is their different approaches in July. The Yankees drew a lot of criticism for basically standing pat and hanging on to their prospects. But by doing that, they didn't lose them. Unlike the Angels, who not only missed the mark on their trades and missed the playoffs again, they also made their farm system much worse in the process.
This is exactly what I meant about teams having more time to assess their chances, too. Cleveland wouldn't have any shot at making the playoffs in five of six divisions. They just happen to play in the AL Central, though, so they have every reason to think they can make a September run and get into the postseason as the No. 3 seed in the AL.
Same thing with Cincinnati, the other most-active team on the waiver wire. They didn't do much in July, but started to slip in August and knew they needed to improve if they wanted to hang on to a wild card spot. So they made several waiver claims. They only ended up getting Bader and Renfroe, but they also put in for the pitchers who went to Cleveland (if multiple teams make a claim for the same player, the one with the worse record has the priority).
I can easily see this becoming the new approach moving forward. Like most things in baseball, once one team proves something works, everyone else is gonna copy it. The jury's still out on whether making a bunch of waiver claims at the end of August actually will work out. But if it does, you know we're gonna start seeing it regularly. Especially if it only costs you picking up that player's salary without losing any prospects.
There's another element at play here, too. The waiver priority hasn't changed. It's still the team with the worse record gets the player, but now they simply get him. There's no working out a trade. You don't need to try and figure out who you're willing to give up. Because you don't need to give up anybody. You just need to hope there isn't a worse team who wants the same player. And, assuming the players put on waivers are free-agents-to-be, it's only a month's worth of salary you need to pick up.
Moving forward, these are things teams will have to consider on both sides of the late August waiver window. And the fact that it happens literally in the last few days of August makes it that much more compelling. It gives the "sellers" time to post guys and the "buyers" still have time to grab them before the September 1 roster deadline. By then, teams will know whether they're going for it in the final month or looking ahead to next year, so those decisions will be much easier (or at least easier to swallow).
Even though we can't get those shocking last-minute Verlander-to-the-Astros trades at the end of August anymore, we knew that there could and would still be movement. And if the waiver claim deadline continues to be this crazy in the future, it could end up being just as compelling as the trade deadline. If not more so.
Tuesday, August 29, 2023
Brian Cashman's Greatest Hits
Despite this disaster of a season in which the Yankees have gotten progressively worse by the month, are in last place, and need a good September to avoid finishing with a losing record for the first time in 30 years, it looks like Brian Cashman will be back as GM in 2024. Even though Cashman is the one responsible for putting together this team, and the fact that this season really has been years in the making thanks to some of the questionable/disastrous personnel decisions he's made, that's evidently not enough for Hal Steinbrenner to make a change.
He's been the Yankees' GM for 25 years. That alone should be enough to make you think a change could/should be in order. Never mind the fact that this will be the 14th consecutive season without a pennant for a team that fancies itself a World Series contender every season. Never mind the fact that he's obsessed with analytics for some reason, even though that approach has yielded zero results and Houston and Tampa Bay, the teams they're trying to emulate, aren't just better at it, they're better teams overall.
Anyway, Hal Steinbrenner has proven he's certainly not his father. If George was still around and running things, Cashman would've been gone a long time ago. There's been a lot of highs during his tenure. No one's denying that. But Cashman's misses have seemed to be piling up more and more in recent seasons. And that's really why the team is in its current situation.
I don't even consider guys like A.J. Burnett or Giancarlo Stanton to be "bad" pickups. Burnett was great in 2009, when he helped the team win a World Series, and Stanton has been exceptional when healthy. He did almost single-handedly win the Division Series against the Rays in 2020. I can't say the same about some other acquisitions, though. Let's call them "Brian Cashman's Greatest Hits."
1. Josh Donaldson: Donaldson's Yankee career came to an unceremonious end when he was released on Tuesday. They got him from the Twins along with Ben Rortvedt and Isiah Kiner-Falefa basically as a way of getting rid of Gary Sanchez, with Gio Urshela thrown in. Needless to say, this trade did not work out well. Donaldson wasn't good last year and was even worse this year. IKF became a utility guy. And Rortvedt got hurt in Spring Training, paving the way for Jose Trevino.
2. Aaron Hicks: Another guy Cashman got from the Twins, another guy who didn't work out. Hicks was actually good when he first came over in 2016, but he needed Tommy John surgery right after signing a seven-year extension in 2019 and it's been downhill ever since. Making matters worse, he knew he needed a left fielder, he knew Hicks sucked and he needed to unload him, and he did nothing about it. Hicks started the season in New York and continued to be just as bad. Cashman finally bit the bullet and released him in May. The irony of the whole thing is that Hicks'll be the one who ends up in the postseason.
3. Frankie Montas & Lou Trivino: This may go down as his worst trade deadline acquisition. Montas was awful as a Yankee. Well, as it turns out, he was injured at the time of the trade and Oakland knew it. How come Cashman didn't? Montas hasn't pitched this season, no one has missed him, he'll leave as a free agent this winter, and no one will care. Trivino, meanwhile, pitched in just a handful of games last season before needing Tommy John surgery. It was a 2-for-1 deal. One trade, two injured pitchers.
4. Clint Frazier: "Clint," "Jackson," whatever he wants to be called, "Red Thunder" was another swing and a miss. He was supposed to be one of the big prizes of the 2016 sell-off that also landed Gleyber Torres (one of Cashman's few good trades in recent years). Frazier came over from Cleveland for Andrew Miller, made his Major League debut in 2017, and spent most of the next four years on the injured list before he was finally designated for assignment in 2021. Since then, he's played for three different organizations, bouncing between the Majors and Minors with the Cubs, Rangers and White Sox.
5. Joey Gallo: Blaming this one entirely on Cashman isn't completely fair, since Yankee fans really wanted Gallo, too. It went south almost immediately. Gallo hit .160 with 88 strikeouts (in 188 at bats) in 58 games with the Yankees in 2021. He was still re-signed for $10.275 million for 2022, yet somehow was even worse! Gallo was hitting .159 and it was clearly getting to him when he was finally put out of his misery and sent to the Dodgers at the 2022 deadline.
6. Sonny Gray: For some reason, Cashman continues to make trades for Oakland pitchers even though they never work out well. Before Montas and Trivino, there was Sonny Gray. Gray made 11 starts after the trade in 2017 and went 4-7. Then in 2018, he was so bad that he was demoted to the bullpen. His Yankee Stadium ERA during his time in pinstripes? 7.71! It was clearly just New York, seeing as Gray has made the All*Star team for both Cincinnati and Minnesota since he was traded to the Reds.
7. Carl Pavano: Getting Pavano for four years and $40 million actually seemed like a great deal at the time. He was coming off an 18-8 season for the Marlins. His Yankee tenure actually began pretty well, too. Then Pavano got hurt. And he spent pretty much the final three-and-a-half years of that contract on the injured list. After missing the rest of 2005 and all of 2006, Pavano made a grand total of nine starts in 2007 and 2008 combined.
8. Michael Pineda: Pineda was traded to Yankees the winter after making the All*Star team as a Mariners rookie in 2011. He didn't make his Yankees debut until 2012. Two years of injuries before ever throwing a pitch for the team. Pineda was actually solid in 2015, then went 6-12 with a 4.82 ERA and 27 home runs allowed in 2016. Then in 2017, it was season-ending Tommy John surgery in July.
9. Stephen Drew: Remember when the Yankees and Red Sox randomly decided to make a trade with each other at the 2014 deadline? I think they were both just trying to pull a fast one on the other by giving them someone they didn't want. Kelly Johnson for Stephen Drew. Drew hit just .150 with three home runs and 15 RBIs in 46 games for the Yankees after the trade, then played a full season with them in 2015 and hit a whopping .201!
10. Nick Johnson: Johnson's first tenure with the Yankees was oh-so-spectacular that Cashman just had to bring him back when he got the opportunity in 2010. Despite the fact that he was a left-handed first baseman and they already had Mark Teixeira. Not that it mattered. Johnson started a grand total of 21 games (20 of them at DH) before hurting his wrist in May and, you guessed it, missing the rest of the season.
Not every trade or free agent signing is gonna work out. Just like how sometimes you miss on a "can't miss" prospect. This is an inexact science. Everyone understands that. But these doozies particularly stand out because of how spectacularly wrong they went. And those failures have only been magnified by the team's coming up short of its annual World Series goal now 14 years in a row.
Can it all be blamed on Cashman? Of course not. He didn't acquire these guys knowing they were gonna suck. He legitimately thought they'd make the team better. But the bottom line is they didn't work out. And these deals have helped put the Yankees on a path that has led to where they are now. So, even if he doesn't deserve all the blame, he's ultimately the one responsible.
Monday, August 28, 2023
US Open Time
Believe it or not, it's actually been five years since Djokovic won the US Open. In 2021, he was going for the Grand Slam when he lost to Daniil Medvedev in the final. In 2020, he was disqualified after hitting a line judge with a ball. In 2019, he hurt his shoulder and had to retire in his fourth-round match. This year, we thought he might be coming to Flushing Meadows looking for his all-time record 25th Grand Slam singles title. That won't happen, but he can still tie Margaret Court by winning his 24th.
This obviously isn't the first time Djokovic has come into the US Open with a chance to make history. I think the difference this year, though, is that he isn't the prohibitive favorite. And not just because of defending champion Alcaraz. There's also Medvedev, Alexander Zverev, Casper Ruud and the Americans--Frances Tiafoe, Taylor Fritz, Tommy Paul and Chris Eubanks. I actually think that's a good thing for Djokovic.
But count Novak Djokovic out at your own peril. Especially since he wasn't able to compete last year. And, let's not forget, he's made the final here nine times! That sometimes gets lost because he's only won three titles, but Djokovic has played in 16 US Opens and made the final in nine of them (and lost in the semis in three others). So, we know he's gonna be around until the end. The question is whether he'll win the seventh match and make history.
Frankly, I'm not sure he does. I do think Djokovic makes it to yet another US Open final, but I'm actually not picking him to win it. I'm not picking either of the last two champions, Alcaraz or Medvedev, either. Nope, instead I'm going with Alexander Zverev. I've long been high on Zverev, who made the final here in 2020 and won the Olympic gold a year later (when he beat Djokovic in the semifinals). He, too, is returning to the US Open after missing the 2022 tournament.
For the first time in a long time, I actually feel really good about the American men at the US Open, too. And it's not just one or two guys, either. Frances Tiafoe had that incredible semifinal run last year. Then Tommy Paul made the semis in Australia and Chris Eubanks reached the quarters at Wimbledon. Taylor Fritz is the only one who hasn't made the deep Grand Slam run, but he's actually the highest-ranked American and seeded ninth. Unfortunately for Fritz, though, he's in Djokovic's quarter.
The top half of the draw is actually far stronger. Which is why I think Djokovic loses the final to whoever comes out of the more competitive side. Zverev could have, in order, the winner of Andy Murray/Grigor Dimitrov, then Stan Wawrinka or Jannik Sinner, then Alcaraz, then whoever comes out of the Russian quarter (Medvedev, Andrey Rublev and Karen Khachanov are all in the same section, and they're all strong hardcourt players). So, whoever comes out of that top half is gonna earn it. And I think that'll be Zverev.
On the women's side, the 2022 US Open turned into a Serena Williams farewell party. And rightfully so. Serena announced her "transition away from tennis' (don't call it "retirement") after the tournament, and she provided one last memorable moment with that second-round victory over Anett Kontaveit (fun fact: I was at the Bianca Andreescu match in Louis Armstrong Stadium during that match). She lost in the next round, officially ushering us into the post-Serena Era.
In 2023, we welcome back Caroline Wozniacki. Woz came back from a three-year retirement at the Canadian Open, and she's playing in her first Grand Slam event since the 2020 Australian Open. Do I expect her to make a deep run? Absolutely not. But it's great to see her back. And I am curious to see how far she advances.
Wozniacki isn't the only veteran in the field. Victoria Azarenka has always played well at the US Open and is the No. 18 seed this year. Venus Williams, though, is playing in her 24th US Open. She made it to at least the semis in each of her first six appearances (1997-2002), but hasn't won a US Open match since 2019. So what? We don't know how many more times we'll get to see her on the blue courts of Flushing Meadows, so let's savor the experience (and I actually think she's got a decent chance to win in the first round).
As for who's actually favorites among the women, you've gotta start with defending champion Iga Swiatek. She's the best player in the world right now. It's as simple as that. Swiatek defended her French Open title, then had her best-ever result at Wimbledon, making the quarterfinals. She's the one to beat.
I also think this could be Jessica Pegula's chance for a Grand Slam breakthrough. At No. 3, she's the highest-ranked American player (man or woman). In the last eight Grand Slam tournaments, going back to the 2021 US Open, she's made the quarterfinals of five and lost in the third round at the other three. She's never reached a Grand Slam semi in singles. I can definitely see that changing here.
Pegula's quarterfinal opponent could very well be Caroline Garcia, who made the semis last year. That sort of came out of nowhere, so it'll be interesting to see if it was just a fluke. But, Garcia is seeded seventh here, so it's not crazy to think she could do it again. Same with fifth-seeded Ons Jabeur, last year's finalist and a finalist at Wimbledon in both 2022 and 2023. Her first Grand Slam title can't be too far away.
There have been eight different US Open women's champions in the last nine years. Due to a variety of reasons (retirement, injury, pregnancy), seven of those eight aren't in the field. In fact, the only former women's champions in this year's tournament are Iga Swiatek and Venus Williams (whose last US Open title came 22 years ago!). There hasn't been a repeat winner since Serena won three in a row from 2012-14. That'll change this year. Swiatek wins a second straight US Open title.
Friday, August 25, 2023
Sometimes There ARE Ties In Track
At the Tokyo Olympics, Mutaz Essa Barshim and Gianmarco Tamberi finished tied for first in the men's high jump. They were given two options--have a jump-off for the gold or share the medal. It was an easy decision for the good friends. They decided to share the gold medal.
The same thing happened earlier this week in the women's pole vault at the World Championships. Both Katie Moon and Nina Kennedy cleared 16'0 3/4 on their third attempt, then missed all three jumps at the next height. They each had one miss at the earlier heights, so they were dead even. They were given the same option that Barshim and Tamberi had in Tokyo. It wasn't a hard decision for Moon and Kennedy, either. Rather than having a jump-off, they shared the gold.
For the athletes, it's probably not that hard a decision at all. Why would they want to keep jumping when they just missed three times at what would've been the winning height, especially after having competed for several hours already? And why give up a guaranteed gold medal for the chance to potentially have to settle for silver? It's better to be a co-champion than finish second.
Both Moon and Kennedy have taken some criticism over the past couple days since the tie. Katie even took to Instagram to explain her side of the situation and how it was actually a no-brainer for her. That will hopefully relieve some of the heat. And, frankly, if I was in her shoes, I probably would've done the exact same thing. On the day, they were both the best and both deserved to be champions.
My problem is not with the tie itself. I don't blame the athletes for their decision one bit. Especially since Barshim and Tamberi are good friends (Tamberi was the best man in Barshim's wedding). So are Moon and Kennedy. Sharing a gold medal with a friend probably made the decision that much easier. No, my issue is with the fact that it was up to the athletes at all.
It's only in the high jump and pole vault where they even have an option. If there's a tie in the vertical jumps or throws, they go to the athlete's second-best mark. In the running events, there's a meticulous review of the photo finish to see whose body crossed the line first. Sometimes they'll even be given the same time, but won't be given the same place. (Although, there was a tie for the final time qualifier for the women's 100 final in Budapest, so they just advanced both of them since there are nine lanes on the track.)
There's a tiebreaking procedure in the high jump and pole vault, too. They jump a fourth time at the final height, then, if they both miss again, the bar moves down. If they both make it, the bar moves up. This continues until one makes and the other misses. Yes, it's sudden death. And, yes, it sounds very tiring. Especially when they're already spent from having already been jumping for several hours. But it's still the tiebreaker they have.
So, if they have the tiebreaker, why don't they use it? Why leave it up to the athletes? Especially when they'd be idiots not to opt for the tie. Beyond that, though, how come only high jumpers and pole vaulters get the option? In every other event, the tiebreaker is applied automatically. Why should it be any different in the two horizontal jumps? (Yes, you're taking your life in your hands in the pole vault, and, yes, the horizontal jumps are the only events where you deliberately attempt a certain mark, but that's not the point.)
Granted, a jump-off isn't necessarily the perfect solution. But neither is the shootout in hockey or penalty kicks in soccer. And you can't possibly argue that the penalty kicks didn't produce all sorts of drama in the Australia-France and Sweden-USA games at the Women's World Cup, Australia-France especially! So, maybe instead of having them continue jumping, which they understandably won't want to do for a number of reasons, another type of tiebreaker could be implemented.
In the pole vault and high jump, they go back to the previous height. If they both cleared on the same attempt at that height, it goes to total misses throughout the competition. It doesn't matter when they occurred. So, a third-attempt clearance at a higher height counts the same as two second-attempt clearances at lower heights.
Because those early misses often come into play, we often see the "passing game," where athletes will forego their remaining attempts at a height they haven't cleared, move the bar up, and use them at the next height. That's usually a strategic ploy where they don't want to waste an attempt when clearing that height won't improve their position, while clearing the next height will potentially move them up while also putting the pressure on their competitors. Sometimes we'll also see early passes to either save their legs or because the better jumpers simply don't see the need to attempt the first few heights that they'll clear easily.
Passes don't hurt you, and they reduce the total number of attempts you take throughout the event. However, passing also means you didn't clear a particular height. Obviously, that's a risk they're willing to take, since they're only given credit for the heights they clear. I appreciate the strategy that goes into passing most of the time, so I don't think athletes should be penalized for them. But I do think there's something to be said about clearing each height in the progression. That's why I think that should be your tiebreaker.
If two athletes cleared the same height and are tied on countback, don't have a jump off and don't go to total attempts throughout the entire competition. Go to number of heights cleared. If there were seven total heights in the competition and one cleared six, but the other only cleared five, the jumper who had the six successful attempts gets the higher place. You can still pass, but that adds another element of risk to it if choosing to pass (and, thus, not clearing a particular height) is factored into the tiebreakers.
Is there a better way than the solution I just proposed? Perhaps. There's also nothing wrong with the jump off. But if you're gonna have a tiebreaker, use it! And don't leave it up to the athletes. Because, if you do, we all know exactly what decision they'll make. It'll be the same one Mutaz Essa Barshim and Gianmarco Tamberi made in Tokyo and Katie Moon and Nina Kennedy made in Budapest. We'll have co-champions in the only two events where that's even possible.
Tuesday, August 22, 2023
Atlanta & Charlotte
My sister who lives outside Charlotte had a barbecue over the weekend. Since the Yankees were in Atlanta and I'm a glutton for punishment, I took that as an opportunity to go to Atlanta first and turn it into a little mini vacation. Cross another ballpark off the list. Truist Park is now the fifth active visiting stadium in which I've seen the Yankees play. Only 24 to go.
In addition to the game, I went to the College Football Hall of Fame and Centennial Olympic Park, which also included a side trip to the 1996 Olympic cauldron (and the Hank Aaron 715 marker in the parking lot that used to be Fulton County Stadium). Then it was off to Charlotte, where I made a stop at the NASCAR Hall of Fame before heading to my sister's.
Inside was a very impressive Braves Hall of Fame/history area. The most significant part is the tribute to Hank Aaron. There's a Hank Aaron statue, and behind it is a "755" made out of 755 bats (obviously one for each home run). They also have all of their National League and World Series championship trophies on display, and I also liked the Braves' uniform evolution. Outside, there's a statue of Bobby Cox. (All of my photos from Truist Park are in a Facebook gallery here.)

They really did a good job of capturing the history, with plenty of footballs, jerseys, etc., from the 1800s and early 1900s. The equipment evolution exhibit is particularly interesting. They also have sections highlighting great rivalries and the three Division I service academies. My favorite part, though, (other than the helmets) was seeing all of the different annual trophies, including the Heisman and CFP National Championship trophy. And, of course, there's the Hall of Fame itself. (Here's the College Football Hall of Fame gallery on Facebook.)
Stop 4: Centennial Olympic Park-It should come as a surprise to absolutely no one that one of the things I wanted to make sure I visited while in Atlanta was Centennial Olympic Park. Can you believe it's been 27 years since Atlanta hosted the Olympics?! Well, Centennial Park is the legacy project of those Games, and it took me right back to the summer of 1996.
There's so much in Centennial Park that I can't even begin to list it all or possibly pick a favorite. There's the fountains, the Olympic rings, the list of every medalist in Atlanta, the Pierre de Coubertin statue, the beautiful memorial where the bombing took place, the area dedicated to the 1996 Paralympics, and so much more (all of it's here). Not to mention the fact that it's also a beautiful public park right in the middle of downtown in a major city. You can see all of the other downtown Atlanta attractions from inside Centennial Park.


Upstairs is the Hall of Honor, the actual gallery honoring the Hall of Famers. I think I did spend at least an hour in that room alone, reading each individual plaque. Then, once I finally left, I checked out the wide variety artifacts from NASCAR's history going all the way back to racing on the hard sand of Daytona Beach. It's not just a history museum, though. I actually thought one of the coolest things was the side-by-side cars which show the differences between the racing version and the passenger version of the same model vehicle. If you haven't been, it's definitely worthwhile. Even if you're not the biggest NASCAR or racing fan, you'll enjoy it and appreciate the history.
While I'd been wanting to check out the NASCAR Hall of Fame pretty much since it opened, I didn't even know where the College Football Hall of Fame was until I was looking for something to do in Atlanta on that day between the Yankees-Braves game and leaving for Charlotte. I'm glad I was able to get to both. And, of course, I'll take any opportunity I can get to geek out about the Olympics! So, all in all, I'd say it was a pretty enjoyable trip, even if there was only one good team involved in the baseball game.
Saturday, August 19, 2023
Budapest Welcomes the World
After two consecutive major global championships that were delayed a year, track & field has gotten back on schedule. And, for the first time ever, we have World Championships in back-to-back years. Last year, they were in Oregon. World Athletics President Seb Coe lamented the choice of Oregon earlier this week, saying that the time zone affected their TV ratings in Europe (the evening sessions started at 5 pm Pacific, which is midnight in London and the middle of the night elsewhere in Europe...so, it was basically the same problem Americans have when events are in Asia or Australia).
Anyway, they'll have no such issues this time, as the World Championships return to the European heart of the sport for the first time since 2017. Budapest is the site, as the city will once again showcase itself as an Olympic-host-in-waiting. It's the first time Hungary is hosting the World Championships, and they built a brand-new national stadium for the occasion.
I'm actually surprised Lord Coe's biggest complaint about last year was the European TV ratings, which were unsurprisingly lower. I figured his regret about the location would be because of the attendance. Eugene's not the easiest place to get to if you're coming from elsewhere in the U.S., let alone overseas. And that "30,000-seat" Hayward Field that actually sat probably no more than 15,000 definitely had a lot of empty seats for a number of sessions.
Of course, empty seats at the World Championships weren't exclusive to Eugene. Moscow held Worlds in the 80,000-seat Luzhniki Stadium, which looked emptier than it was because of its size. And the only time they drew a crowd in Doha was on the two nights Mutaz Barshim was competing. I don't think attendance will be an issue this year, though. For one, it's a smaller stadium. More importantly, it's a centrally located national capital, so it'll be easy for fans from all over Europe to get there. I'm expecting to see a packed stadium for most of the nine days.
Unfortunately, Hungary won't have anywhere near the same type of showing the United States did as host country last year. You can count the number of Hungarian medal contenders on one hand. They'll have one right away with Xenia Krizsan in the heptathlon, but I think their only realistic shot at a medal is Anita Marton in the women's shot put.
Don't expect a repeat of that incredible performance the Americans put on in Eugene, either. The U.S. should once again easily win the team trophy, but the medal count should come down a little bit without the home field advantage. Nevertheless, I still expect plenty of Americans to leave Budapest with hardware. And it should set the U.S. team up well for next year's Olympics in Paris.
Eight of the 10 Americans who won individual gold in Eugene are back to defend, and I expect half of those eight to do just that. Noah Lyles has set an ambitious goal of breaking the world record in the 200 and medaling in the 100. While I'm not sure he gets that, the gold in the 200 is his to lose. Same thing with Ryan Crouser in the shot put. He does something spectacular every time he steps in the ring it seems. And I want to see what Grant Holloway can do for an encore after what he did last year!
The fourth American I have defending is Athing Mu, although that one won't be anywhere near as easy as I think it will for the three men. And that's because of Great Britain's Keely Hodgkinson. The silver medalist behind Mu at both the Tokyo Olympics and last year's Worlds, she's having a tremendous season and has a very realistic chance of standing on the top step of the podium for the first time.
There are three other American women I envision taking gold. When Nafi Thiam withdrew, Anna Hall became the gold medal favorite in the heptathlon. As crazy as that sounds. Maggie Ewen didn't make the team in the shot put last year, then went on to win the Diamond League title. This year, she has the best mark in the world, and I wouldn't be shocked if she wins gold. I also think/hope this is finally the time Sandi Morris moves up a step and doesn't add another silver to her collection. Defending champion Katie Moon has been great all year, though, so Sandi winning would actually be an upset. I also have Tokyo Olympic champ Valarie Allman turning her bronze last year in the discus to gold.
On the men's side, is this finally the year Rai Benjamin breaks through? He won silver behind Karsten Warholm's world record at the Olympics, then took silver again last year behind Alison Dos Santos. All three come in healthy, so the men's 400 hurdles should be quite the showdown.
Sydney McLaughlin hasn't raced the women's 400 hurdles all year, and she won't even be at Worlds, where she was only planning on running the open 400 anyway. Which is great news for Femke Bol, who stands to win her first World title. With McLaughlin now also out of the 400 (where she was a medal threat), Marileidy Paulino of the Dominican Republic becomes an even more overwhelming favorite.
Don't be surprised to see Marie-Josee Ta Lou of the Ivory Coast finally grab her first World title in the 100, either. Of all the women's 100-meter sprinters, she's been the most consistent this year. Of course, Sha'Carri Richardson might have something to say (probably obnoxiously) about that. And so will Shelly-Ann Fraser-Pryce, who looks to make history with her sixth gold medal in the same event at the World Championships.
Faith Kipyegon has set a world record seemingly every time she's stepped on the track this season. She'll go for 1500-5000 double gold in Budapest. What makes that interesting is the fact that she'll be doing it against Sifan Hassan, who's repeating her Tokyo triple. She won medals in all three events at the Olympics (gold in the 5000 and 10,000, bronze in the 1500), then left Eugene without a medal last year. I'm really looking forward to that showdown.
One of the biggest upsets in Eugene came in the men's 1500, where Norway's Olympic champion Jakob Ingebrigtsen was outkicked and settled for silver. He came back to win the 5000, but you know he wants to get that first World title in his signature event. It wouldn't shock me if he takes double gold, either.
And I'd be remiss if I didn't mention the utterly amazing Mondo Duplantis and Yulimar Rojas. While nobody is guaranteed a gold medal, they're two of the biggest favorites at the meet. Duplantis electrified the Hayward Field crowd last year with his gold medal in the pole vault concluding the entire meet. Rojas is nearly as dominant in the women's triple jump. Might we see a world record from her?
Those are just some of the names and events to look out for over the next nine days. The pre-Olympic Worlds often set the stage heading into the Olympic year. Track & field has always been one of the marquee sports of the Olympics, especially when they're held in Europe. So, some of the faces you see winning medals in Budapest will be headliners next year in Paris. Where they'll look to do it all again.
Thursday, August 17, 2023
Stars Skipping Worlds
We already knew that Sydney McLaughlin wouldn't be defending her World Championship in the 400 meter hurdles next week. She had a bye into Worlds as the defending champion, so she ran the open 400 at U.S. Nationals. It was always incredibly unlikely that she would double at Worlds, so once she made the team in the 400 (by winning), that pretty much guaranteed she wouldn't be running the hurdles.
As it turns out, she won't be running either. McLaughlin has what she's calling a "minor" knee injury and withdrew from the 400, as well. Should a "minor" injury be enough to keep her out of Worlds entirely? Probably not. But McLaughlin and her coach, Bobby Kersee, are clearly prioritizing next year's Olympics in Paris.
Athing Mu is also coached by Bobby Kersee. Athing Mu also had a bye into Worlds as defending champion in the 800. So, like McLaughlin, she raced a different event at U.S. Nationals (the 1500), and ended up making the team in that event, too. Mu did the opposite of McLaughlin and scratched the 1500 to focus on her primary event, the 800. Then the report came out that Mu, who isn't injured, might skip Worlds to focus on next year. Fortunately, it doesn't look like that will happen.
Michael Norman is another American who won a World title in Oregon last year. He's been wanting to move down from the 400 to the 100, so, since he had the bye in the 400, he only ran the 100 at U.S. Nationals. Norman was eliminated in the first round of the 100, then, when asked about racing the 400 at Worlds, said "We'll have to wait and see." However, citing "setback after setback" and frustration with his season, he decided to end his season early and not use his bye for Worlds.
Nafi Thiam, meanwhile, was a huge favorite to defend her title in the heptathlon. She, too, has withdrawn from Worlds. Thiam has an Achilles injury. She didn't indicate how serious the injury is. Just that she didn't want to aggravate it. So, she's sacrificing a major championship in order to be fully ready for the Olympics.
That's four defending World Champions, three of whom are American, two of whom have the same coach, who either are or were contemplating skipping this year's World Championships. Michael Johnson, who's been broadcasting track & field for the BBC pretty much since he retired competitively, was very critical of them for that decision. He thinks that athletes who aren't injured should be prioritizing the World Championships, which are obviously the marquee event of the year in the sport.
Under normal circumstances, I'd agree with him. However, we're in the midst of a very unique cycle. Because of the Tokyo Olympic postponement, there's an Olympics or World Championships five years in a row from 2021-25. That's great for the sport. Athletes are used to having one "off" year without a championship in the normal four-year cycle, though. In that "off" year, they'd get a chance to take things a little lighter or maybe try a different event. With no "off" year, though, they can't do that. Which completely changes their training cycle.
Last year would've been that "off" year had the Tokyo Olympics taken place in 2020 as scheduled. However, since those Olympics were delayed, the 2021 Worlds were moved to 2022. And those Worlds didn't just take place on U.S. soil. They took place on the very familiar track at Hayward Field. Combine that with the fact they were the first World Championships in three years and there's no chance any healthy American who made the team wasn't competing in Oregon.
Five major championships in five consecutive years is a lot to ask, though. And the cycle goes back to normal in 2026 (yes, there's still a European Championships and Commonwealth Games, but I'm only talking about Americans for a second here). So, they'll already get that off year after the 2025 Worlds. Which means the only year they realistically can skip a global meet in this abbreviated five-year cycle is this year.
I'm not saying I think they should've decided to skip this year's Worlds. What I am saying is that this is the only year where it made sense to do it. They had a bye, so they didn't take somebody else's spot. Likewise, that spot is theirs, so it couldn't be given to another American instead. And there are no byes for the Olympics. They've got to qualify at Olympic Trials like everybody else.
And, yes, the Olympics are the priority. They always have been. That's never been a secret. The Olympics are only once every four years. The World Championships are (ordinarily) every other year. While I'm sure nobody ever wants to sit out a major championship for any reason, Worlds are likely easier to miss. Especially if you think sacrificing a trip to Worlds might improve your chances of at the Olympics.
While not nearly as publicized, Courtney Frerichs made a similar decision at U.S. Nationals. She fell in the first round of the women's steeplechase, aggravating a nagging injury, and withdrew from the final. Frerichs gave up her chance to go to Worlds in 2023 so that she'd be 100 percent next year. Going to Worlds banged up would potentially impact her performance both this year AND next year! What Sydney McLaughlin and Michael Norman are doing really isn't much different.
This is also a situation that will be unique to 2023. This is the only time an edition of Worlds will be both the year after the previous Worlds and the year before the next Olympics. Other than an injury that actually prevents them from competing, there's no reason to skip the next Worlds in 2025. So, while it's obviously not a good thing that they've decided not to go to Worlds this year, it's a stretch to suggest it's the start of a trend. It's really nothing more than a result of the circumstances.
Would I prefer to see Sydney McLaughlin at the World Championships? Of course! She's one of the biggest names in the sport, and the sport could definitely use all the stars and exposure it can get. But I get why she's not going. I don't like her choice, but I get it.












