The Storm Before the Calm

When Corey Seager indicated he wanted to sign before the lockout, you knew he wouldn't be the only one.  But I don't think anybody expected the crazy flurry of free agent signings we've seen over the past 72 hours.  Instead of the typical Hot Stove League, where we have to wait months for anything to happen, there's so much going on it's enough to give you whiplash.  The December 1 CBA expiration has suddenly turned the end of November into the trade deadline!

They're not all going to sign before the lockout, of course.  Kris Bryant has said he'll wait, and he won't be the only one.  Freddie Freeman, Anthony Rizzo, Carlos Correa and Trevor Story are also still out there, along with plenty of others.  So the Hot Stove will definitely heat up again once the labor situation is settled.  We just have no idea when that'll be!  (My guess is late January/early February.)

It isn't just the marquee free agents who've gotten the big contracts, either.  The Rays locked in Wander Franco to a mega deal, and the Twins made sure they got Byron Buxton paid before he hit free agency (remember when Buxton was hitting like .180 and got sent down a couple years ago?).  And Brandon Belt never even hit free agency, agreeing to the Giants' qualifying offer instead.

What's been surprising, though, is the teams that have been involved.  Or, more specifically, which teams haven't.  The Mets and Rangers have gone all-in (more on that in a second).  The Tigers have been big spenders for the first time in forever.  And the Blue Jays have shown they clearly were NOT happy about finishing fourth last season.  Meanwhile, not a peep from the Yankees, Red Sox or Dodgers.

While there's still plenty of time for the usual suspects to get involved after the transaction freeze is lifted, it's already clear that several teams will look drastically different in 2022.  Whether it's for better or worse remains to be seen.  But none of these teams can be accused of sitting on their hands and doing nothing.

Mets: The most obvious of those teams is the Mets.  In the span of about 12 hours over the weekend, they signed Starling Marte, Eduardo Escobar and Mark Canha.  That was just the warm-up act, though.  They landed the biggest fish out there in Max Scherzer, giving them the scariest 1-2 pitching combo in all of baseball.  Steve Cohen clearly isn't afraid of spending money to make his team better.  And he's shown it!

Rangers: Why sign one free agent shortstop when you can sign two?  Texas got Marcus Semien, then gave Corey Seager his megadeal.  Now Seager will get to play all of his home games in the stadium where he was both NLCS and World Series MVP in 2020.  Although, the Rangers signing a shortstop a 10-year deal immediately made me think "A-Rod!"  My prediction is that history repeats itself and Seager is traded long before then.

Tigers: Carlos Correa reuniting with A.J. Hinch in Detroit was evidently a done deal.  Until the Tigers went and got Javy Baez to play shortstop instead.  And they also enhanced their rotation by adding Eduardo Rodriguez.  The White Sox are still the best team in the AL Central, but the Tigers already look like they'll actually be competitive.  I have a feeling they aren't done, either.  (This is just me randomly throwing it out there, but how about a reunion with Nick Castellanos?)

Mariners: Seattle won 90 games last season and hasn't made the playoffs since 2001.  So the Mariners are obviously in win now mode.  That's why they traded for second baseman Adam Frazier.  But that's not all.  They got reigning AL Cy Young Award winner Robbie Ray from the Blue Jays.  Now, I'm not sure Ray can carry a rotation the way the Mariners are hoping, but I guess we'll find out.  Just like Detroit, I don't think we've heard the last from Seattle.  I curious to see what else the Mariners do after the lockout.  (Could Seattle be Bryant's landing spot?)

Angels: Can you tell the rest of the AL West is getting sick of seeing the Astros win all the time?  The Angels made the first real big splash of the winter with their one-year, $21 million deal with Noah Syndergaard.  They've since added Michael Lorenzen, who, like a certain other player on their roster, both hits and pitches (I guess the theory is, "We've already got one, so why not two?!")  And, hey, they finally addressed the pitching staff, which has been their glaring weakness for years!

Blue Jays: Toronto's chances of keeping Semien probably weren't that high, and they also lost a pair of starting pitchers in Ray and Steven Matz.  So what did they do to make up for those losses?  Re-sign Jose Berrios and go get Kevin Gausman for five years!  You've got a sense they aren't done, either.  While the aren't necessarily better, they've at the very least made sure that the AL East will once again be a four-team race.

Marlins: Believe it or not, Miami has been one of the most active teams in baseball so far this winter.  They've only made one big free agent singing in Avisail Garcia, but have made a couple significant trades.  They picked up catcher Jacob Stallings from the Pirates and Rays infielder Joey Wendle.  There's still a large talent gap in the NL East, but the Marlins have definitely improved.

Rays: Tampa Bay doesn't give out long-term contracts.  Which tells you all you need to know about what they think of Wander Franco!  Plus, they shored up their rotation by inking Corey Kluber to a one-year deal.  That, of course, comes with considerable risk because of Kluber's injury history.  But if he can stay healthy for the entire year and return to his old form, that could be a steal.  This is a team that won 100 games last season, mind you!

That's just what's happened so far.  Things will surely pick up again after the lockout.  And, I have a feeling, even though they've been quiet so far, the Yankees, Red Sox and Dodgers will enter the fray before all is said and done.  Because as frenetic as the past week has been, we're a long way from the end of this year's Hot Stove League.  Not by a long shot.

Back In the USFL

Feeling nostalgic for the mid-80s?  Never fear!  The USFL is back!  The spring football league that actually worked...until it decided to move to a fall schedule and attempt to go head-to-head against the NFL, with that famous $3 settlement in the anti-trust lawsuit.  Now, after the XFL, AAF and XFL 2.0, USFL 2.0 is our latest attempt at the spring pro football league America doesn't actually want yet for some reason people think it does.

Of course, XFL 2.0 isn't officially "dead."  The Rock bought it out of bankruptcy and plans to relaunch it in 2023.  So, assuming that actually happens and USFL 2.0 makes it that long, we'll once again have two second-rate spring football leagues.  But, even without the XFL, we're set for yet another relaunch in 2022--the USFL.

Unlike the original USFL, this one doesn't plan on being a competitor to the NFL.  They've said as much.  Rather, they want to be an NFL "feeder" league, much like The Spring League and the FXFL also tried.  (Let's not forget, that those two leagues are also a thing of the past.)  Only time will tell if they're actually able to succeed where all others have failed.

One thing USFL 2.0 has going for it, though, is brand recognition.  And I'm not just talking about the league   They did something very smart and acquired the trademarks for the team names, too.  In fact, all eight teams in the new version of the USFL have the same name as teams from the original league.  It's not just those eight, either.  They acquired some other names that they aren't currently using...just in case they want to expand in the future.

The original USFL holds a special place in football history.  It obviously didn't achieve its ultimate goal.  But, even if people don't know anything else about the league, they know that Donald Trump was one of the owners and that they "won" $3 in an antitrust lawsuit against the NFL.  And they also know that the original USFL had some damn good players, from Hall of Famers Jim Kelly, Steve Young and Reggie White to Heisman Trophy winner Herschel Walker.

That's why keeping the original branding made so much sense.  Jim Kelly played for the original Houston Gamblers.  Herschel Walker played for the original New Jersey Generals.  So why not bring those teams back?  Especially since they could!

USFL 2.0 will consist of the Generals, Philadelphia Stars, Pittsburgh Maulers and Michigan Panthers in the North Division, and the South Division will include the Gamblers, New Orleans Breakers, Tampa Bay Bandits and Birmingham Stallions.  What's interesting, too (and what sets USFL 2.0 apart from the other startup leagues) is that seven of those eight markets are already the home of at least one NFL team.  Playing in major cities that already have NFL teams was a big risk that paid off in the mid-80s.  And I can understand the thought process that you need to be in the big cities to be successful.  But that can also be a recipe for disaster.

Another thing that I found interesting beyond what cities were chosen is where those cities are.  The AAF also had eight teams, seven of which were located in the South.  The 2020 edition of the XFL had two on the West Coast and two in Texas.  Those were both split East/West.  USFL 2.0, meanwhile, is almost entirely based East of the Mississippi (with the exception of Houston and New Orleans) and split North/South.  I know from a TV perspective that doesn't make too much of a difference, but, should the league last more than a season or two, you'd have to think they'd want to expand beyond just the Eastern and Central time zones.

We won't get to see what type of attendance figures these USFL teams can attract in their home markets until 2023 at the earliest (if at all)!  Their plan for 2022 is to play the entire 10-game season in a bubble, using two stadiums in Birmingham (which may be why Birmingham was selected as one of the franchises).  When they do eventually go to their home markets, though, I'm curious to see what stadiums they end up playing in.  Because they won't fill the NFL stadiums in those cities.  Do they play in the MLS facilities (during soccer season)?

They've already got the TV partners, which is essential.  In this day and age, you'd better have at least one TV partner already lined up before you even think about starting to have any prayer of even getting off the ground.  (It's worth noting that USFL 1.0 was huge for the growth of ESPN.)  In USFL 2.0's case, it's FOX.  FOX is also a partner in the XFL, though, which could create a very interesting situation where they're broadcasting two competing leagues targeting the same audience at the same time in the Spring of 2023, with only so much airtime available.

I'm sure that's a problem FOX would love to have.  Because it would mean that the new USFL made it to a second season.  Which is by no means a guarantee.  COVID obviously hastened the demise of Vince McMahon's second attempt at the XFL, but, even if it does return, does anybody think it'll last?  USFL 2.0, unfortunately, seems destined to suffer that same fate.  Would simply making it to Year 2 qualify as a victory?

There's still a lot we don't know about USFL 2.0.  All we know is the league name and the team names.  From what I can tell, they won't have any quirky rules to make themselves stand out, but we won't know that officially until they publish the rules and other details of the league.   So, it's entirely possible that USFL 2.0 will look exactly like the football we're accustomed to seeing in the NFL.

Although, what the football looks like is only half the battle.  The AAF and XFL didn't even make it through an entire season before going bankrupt.  That's the other thing about all these failed attempts at a spring football league that blows my mind!  It's ridiculously expensive just to get it off the ground, with a virtual guarantee that you're going to lose more money than you make!  Yet people still keep trying to do it anyway!

Who knows what would've happened had the original USFL not tried to go head-to-head against the NFL?  This new version of the league won't make that same mistake, but still faces an uphill battle.  Because, no matter how much these various league-starters may want to deny it, there's only so much of an appetite for second-rate pro football played in the spring.

Picking Football Games, Week 12

Seriously, what is going on with this league?!  Is anybody actually good?  It's Thanksgiving, and there are still way too many "good" teams suffering inexplicable upset losses to opponents they should handle pretty easily.  Although, last year after losing on Thanksgiving weekend, the Bucs were 7-5, and they didn't lose again.  So maybe somebody will separate themselves with still six games left!

Bears (3-7) at Lions (0-9-1): Detroit-Detroit has a great chance to get its first win of the season here.  But, hey, they aren't 0-10 entering the game!  And the Bears have Andy Dalton starting at QB, which makes you like the Lions' chances even more.  In fact, I like the Lions' chances so much that they're my pick here.  We already knew they can't go 0-17.  It'll be a Happy Thanksgiving in Detroit, when the Lions make sure they won't finish 0-16-1 either!

Raiders (5-5) at Cowboys (7-3): Dallas-Sunday's game aside, I still think the Cowboys are one of the best teams in football.  Yes, they got completely shut down by the Chiefs' defense, but that says more about Kansas City than Dallas.  Their Thanksgiving opponent is a Raiders team that hasn't won a game in a month.  Las Vegas has gone from first to last in the AFC West during its three-game losing streak.  It should reach four straight in a game that has the potential to get ugly.

Bills (6-4) at Saints (5-5): Buffalo-It took a while.  Probably longer than it should have.  But I'm finally jumpign off the Saints bandwagon.  This team looks nothing like the offensive juggernaut we've come to expect.  They were 5-2 and had a golden opportunity to seize control in the NFC South.  They've lost three straight since then and looked worse in each successive game.  The Bills haven't looked much better, and now have to deal with the Patriots.  But Buffalo has also shown an ability to bounce back after a bad week.

Steelers (5-4-1) at Bengals (6-4): Pittsburgh-When they met in Week 3, the Bengals won 24-10, and it wasn't even really that close.  It was Cincinnati's second straight win over Pittsburgh, so you know the Steelers won't be taking them lightly.  In fact, if the playoffs were to start today, Cincinnati would be in and Pittsburgh (thanks to that tie) would be out.  The Steelers can flip that with a win on Sunday.  Which is something they typically tend to do in that type of situation.

Buccaneers (7-3) at Colts (6-5): Tampa Bay-Don't look now, but Indianapolis is suddenly one of the most dangerous teams in the AFC.  They've put on two offensive clinics in the last three weeks!  Of course, the chances of putting on an offensive clinic against the Tampa Bay defense aren't that great (although, I'm not sure how much of Monday night was the Bucs and how much was the Giants' lack of offense).  One crazy stat about this game is the fact that Brady's 4-1 all-time against Indianapolis in the postseason.  That's obviously not at all relevant to this game.  It just seems like the Patriots and Colts met in the playoffs a lot more than five times!

Panthers (5-6) at Dolphins (4-7): Carolina-The Panthers win in Arizona, then return home and lose to Washington?  As I said, it's a confusing league!  Now they go to Miami to face a Dolphins team that's won two straight.  I think that streak comes to an end, though.  The Panthers go back and forth between showing us what they can be and laying eggs.  This week, I think they once again show us what they're made of.

Titans (8-3) at Patriots (7-4): Tennessee-Last week, I was worried that the Texans could end up being a trap game for Tennessee.  They win all those games in a row against teams that made the playoffs last season, then get a "break" with one of the worst teams in the league before traveling to New England.  Turns out, that's exactly what it was.  It didn't cost them their 1-seed since they're the only AFC team with eight wins, but another loss this week would.  The Patriots are on quite a roll right now, but I see the Titans righting the ship and playing like they did against all of their other strong opponents.

Eagles (5-6) at Giants (3-7): Philadelphia-Talk about two teams going in opposite directions.  Joe Judge threw everyone under the bus after yet another listless offensive performance by the Giants on Monday night, and it cost Jason Garrett his job.  (Judge should be following him out the door at the end of the season.)  The Eagles, meanwhile, have won three out of four and looked good in all of them.  And they'll be right smack in the middle of the playoff race after improving to 6-6.

Falcons (4-6) at Jaguars (2-8): Atlanta-Isn't it crazy how sometimes there are those weeks when all the good teams play each other and all the bad teams play each other at the same time?  After the New Orleans game, I wouldn't have necessarily categorized the Falcons as "bad."  But that was before they scored a grand total of three points combined against Dallas and New England!  Fortunately, their opponent this week is the Jaguars.  And if they can't score against Jacksonville, they've got bigger problems.

Jets (2-8) at Texans (2-8): Jets-Two Jets quarterbacks are in COVID protocols, so it's back to the top of the order and Zach Wilson.  The Texans, meanwhile, pulled off one of the shocks of the season by not just beating the Titans, but really outplaying them the entire game.  Now they square off, with the loser holding the edge for the No. 2 pick in the draft.  Just like last year when they randomly got two wins late in the season to cost them the No. 1 pick, it would be a very Jets thing to do for them to win here.

Chargers (6-4) at Broncos (5-5): Chargers-Just when we start losing faith in the Chargers, they go and have a performance like that one on Sunday night against the Steelers!  Maybe they are as good as we thought they were after all!  They're back in playoff position, and they'll actually technically take over first place with a win in Denver.

Rams (7-3) at Packers (8-3): Green Bay-Could this be a potential playoff preview?  In last season's playoffs, the Packers won 32-18, and they've generally dominated the Rams at Lambeau with Aaron Rodgers.  The Rams are approaching must-win territory since a loss would put them two full games behind Arizona, but Green Bay's thinking about the 1-seed, which is still very much there for the taking.  They'll go to 9-3 and make the Rams start thinking wild card.

Vikings (5-5) at 49ers (5-5): Minnesota-Vikings-49ers is suddenly a game that has a lot of relevance in the NFC playoff race.  Minnesota, which is much better than its record, finally jumped into a playoff spot after that big win over Green Bay (in one of the most entertaining games in the NFL this season).  San Francisco, meanwhile, is 3-1 since a four-game losing streak.  I have a feeling that there's only room for one of them in the playoffs.  Which means the winner of this game will have a huge advantage.  And I'd say that advantage will go to Minnesota.

Browns (6-5) at Ravens (7-3): Baltimore-Cleveland is the best last-place team in the NFL!  Which really speaks to the overall quality of the AFC North more than anything else.  The first-place Ravens are only a game and a half ahead of the Browns, and it could've been just a half-game had they not managed that late TD to beat the Bears last week!  But they did manage to win.  Which is what good teams do.  And they should again on Sunday night.

Seahawks (3-7) at Washington (4-6): Washington-You can't really blame the NFL for putting this one on a Monday night.  On paper, it wasn't a terrible matchup.  The Seahawks are always good and Washington made the playoffs last season.  Of course, the reality of the 2021 season is very different.  Seattle's having its worst year under Pete Carroll and Russell Wilson, Washington isn't good either, and they ended up with kind of a dud!  Well, that happens sometimes.  

Last Week: 8-7
Overall: 107-57-1

A Delicate Dance

The situation involving Peng Shuai is not good to say the least.  The Chinese tennis player went public two weeks ago with accusations of sexual assault against a government official.  Those accusations were, of course, denied, but that's not even the most disturbing part.  The most disturbing part is that Peng essentially disappeared from public view almost immediately afterwards, justifiably drawing concerns about her safety and wellness.

Peng finally resurfaced last week.  On Chinese state media.  Which showed videos of her smiling and claiming she was "doing fine" and "would like to have her privacy respected."  Then she appeared in a 30-minute video conference with the IOC, which left them feeling comfortable about her well-being.  That hasn't eased everyone's concerns, though.  In fact, it's made some people even more skeptical.

China is, of course, notoriously secretive.  As a Communist country, the government has almost complete control over people's lives.  You're only allowed to know or do what they want you to know or do.  Case in point, the images of Peng posted this weekend were released on Twitter, which most Chinese citizens don't have access to.  So it's pretty obvious that they're controlling the narrative.

What has people especially concerned is the fact that Peng did something that leaders of Communist countries especially do not like.  She spoke out against the government.  And people who speak out against the government are punished.  (Why do you think so many people fled Eastern Europe in the 60s and 70s?)  So, the worry is that the government retaliated against her in some way.  And those videos don't make anyone feel any better.  Because that could still very much be the case.

It's entirely possible that the photos and videos of Peng were staged.  They were released on state media as "proof" that she's OK, but that doesn't mean she is.  She could be a political prisoner who was forced to make those videos.  No one knows the truth.  Which is exactly the way the Chinese government wants it.

That video conference with the IOC was live, so we at least know she isn't a missing person.  Beyond that, we know nothing about her well-being.  The IOC evidently came away satisfied afterwards.  Which only made people more critical of the IOC.  At first, they were accused of "not doing enough" to ensure Peng's well-being.  Now they're being accused of "capitulating to China."

This isn't the first time the IOC has been accused of turning a blind eye when it comes to China, either.  The criticism amped up earlier this year because of the human rights violations being committed in the Xinjiang region of the country.  There have even been calls for nations to boycott the upcoming Winter Games or for the IOC to remove them from Beijing.  (Neither of which is going to happen, by the way.)

What both of these situations illustrate, however, is a much larger point.  As much as people in the West may want the IOC to punish China, they can't.  The IOC isn't a political organization.  And their policy has to be to stay out of it.  That may not be a satisfactory answer for some people.  But it's really the only position they can take.  Because they have to play nice with more than 200 countries.  It's a very delicate dance to be sure.

In a way, the situation with China is a similar to the one the IOC had to deal with after the Russian doping scandal.  There are some who think the IOC was way too soft on Russia.  There are those who think the sanctions were too harsh.   And there are others who think the punishment is just right.

Of course, there's also one big difference between Russia and China.  Russia's doping problem was very much within the IOC's jurisdiction.  The whole point of it was so that they'd perform well at the Olympics.  So it wasn't just that the IOC had the authority to punish them.  They had the responsibility to.  They have no authority when it comes to what's going on in China, though.  Any move the IOC makes would be a tremendous overstep.  Which they know.

Balancing the competing interests of 200-plus countries with vastly different ideologies isn't an easy task.  Any decision they make is gonna be supported in one part of the world and criticized in another.  The situation in China is a perfect example of that.  And, just when it seemed like that had been resolved, the Peng Shaui story breaks.  Once again putting the focus on the IOC and its attitude towards China.

Would they be dealing with things in China differently if they didn't have an Olympics in Beijing coming up in a few months?  Perhaps.  That's another element of this complicated dynamic.  Because the next Olympics ARE in China, so the IOC needs to be on good terms with the Chinese government.  Likewise, the Chinese government needs to be on good terms with the IOC.  So, even though the IOC isn't a political organization, it's a calculated political game that they must play.

Other organizations don't have those same considerations to worry about.  The WTA Tour has threatened to pull its tournaments from China, which is its prerogative.  Even the UN has chimed in, expressing concern for Peng Shuai.  The UN, unlike the IOC, IS a political organization and would be completely within its rights to issue some sort of sanctions against China.

I'm not saying any of this is good.  In fact, it's just the opposite.  And there are plenty of questions that still need to be answered.  The video of Peng Shuai released over the weekend didn't really answer any.  All it did, actually, was raise more.

Picking Football Games, Week 11

Maybe I spoke too soon about surviving the crazy week picks-wise.  Despite all the upsets, I made it through Week 9 in pretty good shape.  Then Week 10 hit.  The Dolphins beat the Ravens on Thursday night and it was all downhill from there, to the tune of 5-8-1.  Hopefully NOW it's out of my system!

What the last two weeks have shown us, too, is that there are apparently a lot of teams that don't actually want to make the playoffs.  Every team that had a chance to gain ground because somebody ahead of them lost didn't do so.  And, as a result, the standings are a huge mess.  Especially in the AFC, where the Patriots are suddenly a major player after their Thursday night shutout win.

Thursday Night: New England (Win)

Colts (5-5) at Bills (6-3): Buffalo-Last week, for the second time this season, the Bills took out a bad game on their next opponent.  Of course, they haven't played the Patriots yet, and those games are suddenly ultra-relevant in the division race.  That may actually be a good thing, since they know they can't take any more games off.  Especially this week's matchup with a Colts team that's 4-1 since a 1-4 start.  A Bills loss here would be really bad heading into that Thanksgiving night game in New Orleans.

Ravens (6-3) at Bears (3-6): Baltimore-Incredibly, even after that loss to the Dolphins, the Ravens are still in sole possession of first place.  Of course, that's mainly because they got lucky with the Steelers tying and the Browns losing.  They can't rely on Pittsburgh and Cleveland helping them out again, though.  They have to take care of business in Chicago themselves.  Which they should.

Lions (0-8-1) at Browns (5-5): Cleveland-Detroit won't go 0-17 this season!  As terrible as that game was, it was nice to see the Lions not lose (for the second week in a row!), since they're too good to go completely winless on the season.  Of course, they're still technically winless, but it's coming soon.  Perhaps against the Bears on Thanksgiving?  Because that first win won't come in Cleveland.

Texans (1-8) at Titans (8-2): Tennessee-The Titans more than navigated the most difficult part of their schedule.  They have the best record in the AFC and the tiebreaker on pretty much everybody!  They go to Foxboro next week, so this definitely has "trap game" written all over it.  Fortunately, the Texans aren't very good.  So, Tennessee can get away with a bad game and still probably win (although, they did lose to the Jets, which is the weirdest thing about their season).

Packers (8-2) at Vikings (4-5): Green Bay-Call me crazy, but I still like Minnesota for a playoff spot.  The Vikings are better than their record, as evidence last week with their win over the Chargers at SoFi Stadium.  They know their chances of winning the NFC North are all but nonexistent, though.  Green Bay will go into Thanksgiving with a 4.5 game lead in the division.

Dolphins (3-7) at Jets (2-7): Miami-I feel kind of bad for Jets fans.  I mean, only a little, since they bring it on themselves.  But the past few weeks have been particularly bad!  Do they even have a defense?  Or an offense for that matter?  it's not like the Dolphins are much better.  They just aren't nearly as dysfunctional as the Jets.  And, hey, they beat the Ravens last week!

Saints (5-4) at Eagles (4-6): New Orleans-Do the Saints actually want to make the playoffs?  Because they sure haven't played like it over the last two weeks!  The crazy thing is they had enough of a buffer and the bottom teams in the NFC are so bad that their playoff spot is still secure.  At least for now.  Things aren't gonna get any easier with back-to-back Thursday night games against Buffalo and Dallas coming up.  Which means if they don't win in Philly, a five-game losing streak is a real possibility for the Saints.

Washington (3-6) at Panthers (5-5): Carolina-Suddenly, the Carolina Panthers are currently holding down the final playoff spot in the NFC.  And, with their remaining schedule, it's entirely possible.  Especially now that Cam Newton is back and looks like his old self.  It must be something about that Panther blue!  He should make it 2-for-2 since his return in his first home game back with Panthers.

49ers (4-5) at Jaguars (2-7): San Francisco-San Francisco has the Rams' number.  That's really the only way I can explain what happened on Monday night.  With that win, the 49ers have suddenly thrust themselves into the playoff conversation.  They'll be even more relevant in the playoff race after this week, when they take advantage of the gift they've been given in a trip to Jacksonville and move to .500.

Bengals (5-4) at Raiders (5-4): Las Vegas-For some reason, I don't think all hope is lost for the Raiders yet.  Even after losing to the Giants and getting their butts kicked by the Chiefs, they're still in good shape.  Of course, getting their butts kicked again in Dallas on Thanksgiving is a very strong possibility, which is why a win over Cincinnati is imperative.  It's actually imperative for both teams, seeing as the winner will have the tiebreaker and deal the loser's playoff chances a massive hit.

Cowboys (7-2) at Chiefs (6-4): Kansas City-America's Game of the Week is worthy of the title!  Could this potentially be a Super Bowl preview?  (For the record, I think Dallas is more likely to get there than Kansas City.)  The Chiefs seem to have finally found their mojo, while the Cowboys rebounded from their loss to Denver by absolutely thumping Atlanta.  This should be a great game.  It could be one of those "last possession wins" types.  But, since the game's in Kansas City, I'm going with the Chiefs.

Cardinals (8-2) at Seahawks (3-6): Arizona-It's a good thing that the Cardinals got off to such a good start and that the NFC is weak.  Because, as I suspected, once Arizona lost, teams were gonna watch tape and figure them out.  Which is exactly what happened against the Panthers!  The Seahawks, meanwhile, are in danger of seeing this become their first lost season in quite a while.  They didn't look good without Russell Wilson, and they didn't look good last week with him.  That's not a good sign for a second half turnaround.

Steelers (5-3-1) at Chargers (5-4): Pittsburgh-That tie may end up not hurting Pittsburgh too much in the long run.  It takes them out of all the tiebreakers, and considering how tight the AFC playoff race figures to be, I can see them getting in by a half-game over somebody.  That team could be the Chargers, who've been in a free fall since that great start.  And Pittsburgh always rebounds well after a bad game, which is why I'm going with the Steelers in this one.

Giants (3-6) at Buccaneers (6-3): Tampa Bay-How did the Giants swing it that they got two Monday night games this year?  And that both were on the road against last season's Super Bowl teams?!  They actually played pretty well in Kansas City, and, hey, they didn't lose last week (it was their bye)!  The Bucs, meanwhile, had a shocking loss in Washington.  We all know what Tom Brady is like after a loss.

This Week: 1-0
Last Week: 5-8-1
Overall: 100-50-1

MLB's Best Players, 2021

For the first time since 1987, we're guaranteed to have both MVP's come from teams that missed the playoffs.  In fact, none of the six finalists played for a playoff team.  Which means none of the top three players in either league made the playoffs.  Which doesn't mean they aren't deserving of being finalists.  It's just quite the switch in what the definition of "most valuable" is.

Although, who are we kidding?  No matter how good a season anyone else had, Shohei Ohtani was going to win AL MVP.  He didn't just have one of those special seasons.  He had a historic year we're gonna be talking about for a long time.  What Ohtani did in 2021 is on par with Joe DiMaggio's 1941 or Mark McGwire's 1998.  Actually, no it isn't.  Ohtani did something special this season that's unlikely to be repeated anytime soon (unless he does it again in 2022)!

I've been known to have my share of doubts about Ohtani and the lasting power of this hitting and pitching thing in the past.  But his 2021 season was simply remarkable!  And it really is mind-blowing to think someone could hit 46 home runs, drive in 100, steal 26 bases AND go 9-2 with 156 strikeouts as one of the best starting pitchers in the league!  You see that in Little League and high school, maybe even into college.  But in the Majors?  Incredible.

While I'm still skeptical about how long he'll be able to pull off this double-act (and, yes, I'm still mad about the Rookie of the Year vote in 2018), there's no denying that this season was something special.  And it really was an amazing thing to watch!

At the All-Star break, it looked like Ohtani would actually get some competition for MVP from Vladimir Guerrero Jr.  And, if not for Ohtani, Vladito would be the clear MVP!  (Heck, if he played in the National League, he'd be the clear MVP!)  But, despite Vladito's .311 average, 48 home runs and sheer dominance for a Blue Jays team that just missed the playoffs, Ohtani pulled away in the second half and everybody knows it.  So, Guerrero's only reward for his outstanding season will be a unanimous second-place finish.

Finishing third was Guerrero's Blue Jays teammate Marcus Semien.  Frankly, I'm not sure how.  Semien had a strong season.  I'm not denying that.  But where's Salvador Perez?  I was fully expecting his name to be announced as the third finalist.  Salvy led the league in both home runs and RBIs while playing 161 games.  At catcher!  (Granted, he DHed a bunch, but the thought of a catcher playing 161 games is simply mind-boggling!)

Also, let's give some love to guys whose teams actually made the playoffs.  Jose Abreu won last year and followed it up with a 30 HR-117 RBI season.  Rafael Devers had an absolutely absurd year in Boston.  And Carlos Correa might've been the Astros' best player this year.  I'd even say that the numbers put up by Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Staton are worthy of MVP consideration.  Let's not forget Teoscar Hernandez, either.  He could easily give the Blue Jays three top 10 finishers.

Since the vote is 10-deep, I'm sure they all earned down-ballot consideration.  But 1 and 2 will both be unanimous.  How it shakes out after that is the real question (although we know Semien was third).  My list looks like this: 1. Ohtani, 2. Guerrero, 3. Perez, 4. Devers, 5. Semien, 6. Judge, 7. Correa, 8. Hernandez, 9. Stanton, 10. Abreu.

Over in the National League, it's down to Bryce Harper, Fernando Tatis Jr., and Juan Soto.  Harper single-handedly kept the Phillies in contention in the second half.  Tatis missed 30 games and still dropped 40 and 100.  And Soto's the only player you've ever heard of who's still on the Nationals.

People don't like to admit it, but Harper is the best all-around player in the National League.  Sorry, but it's true.  His second half, especially, was incredible, which is how the Phillies were able to stay in the NL East race.  Harper hit .309 and crushed 35 homers.  He also had 42 doubles and slugged .615.  Would more people have noticed if the Phillies had made the playoffs?  Probably.  But, production-wise at least, he's giving them everything they expected with that monster contract.

Last year, when they finalists were announced and Manny Machado was on there, I was like, "they've got the wrong Padre."  This year Tatis IS a finalist after hitting 42 homers and tallying 97 RBIs in just 130 games.  He also stole 25 bases and was only caught four times.  He struggled a little bit at shortstop so they moved him to the outfield, which only increased his MVP case by showcasing his versatility.  And, had he not missed 30 games, maybe San Diego doesn't incredibly underachieve this season.

Finally we've got Juan Soto, the new Face of the Washington Nationals.  What makes Soto's numbers more impressive is the fact that, once everybody else got traded, he got the Barry Bonds treatment.  Soto walked 145 times!  He had nearly as many walks as hits (and was walked almost once per game)!  Yet, despite nobody actually pitching to him for the final two months of the season, he still managed to hit .313 with 29 homers and 95 RBIs.

How's this three-horse race gonna turn out?  Honestly, I don't know.  Because it's not like any of them have making the playoffs as a deciding factor.  Had Tatis played a full season and had a chance to add to his numbers, I'd say he has the edge, but he didn't.  Which is why I'm slightly leaning towards Harper picking up his second career MVP award.

As for the other contenders, there are two guys who really stand out to me: Austin Riley and Nick Castellanos.  We all know about all the moves the Braves made to get better at the trade deadline (acquiring an entirely new outfield, etc.), so it's easy to overlook Riley's season-long contributions.  All he did was hit .303 with 33 homers and 107 RBIs while playing 160 games.  Castellanos, meanwhile, went .309/34/100 for a surprisingly good Cincinnati team.

Brandon Crawford was the best player on a Giants team that won 107 games, while Pirates center fielder Bryan Reynolds is the subject of a lot of trade talk mainly because of his 2021 numbers.  Manny Machado and Paul Goldschmidt had their typically strong seasons.  So did Joey Votto and Nolan Arenado.  And his World Series struggles might've masked it, but Ozzie Albies had quite a year, too!

None of them won, obviously.  Either Harper, Tatis or Soto did.  Which one?  Your guess is as good as mine!  As for my choice, I think I'm going with Harper.  1. Harper, 2. Tatis, 3. Soto, 4. Castellanos, 5. Riley, 6. Crawford, 7. Machado, 8. Goldschmidt, 9. Reynolds, 10. Albies.

MLB's Best Pitchers, 2021

This is a very odd year when it comes to the Cy Young Awards.  Ordinarily there's one pitcher who's so dominant that he's not just a lock for the Cy Young, he gets some serious MVP consideration.  Last year, that was obviously Shane Bieber in the American League.  But there wasn't that dominant pitcher this season.  In either league.  Which means both Cy Young races are wide open!

Max Scherzer has had several of those seasons.  That's why he's won three of these things, and it would be more if not for Jacob deGrom.  He had another Max-like year in 2021, especially after he was traded to the Dodgers.  Scherzer went 7-0 with a sub-2.00 ERA in 11 starts for LA.  It's not exactly as if he was struggling in Washington before the trade, either.  Overall, Max ended up 15-4 with a 2.46 ERA and 236 strikeouts.

I'd like to say that makes Scherzer the obvious favorite, but it's really hard to put that label on any of the three finalists.  And it really speaks to the quality of pitching across the entire National League that Scherzer's Dodgers teammates Walker Buehler and Julio Urias aren't even finalists!  Urias was 20-3 with a sub-3.00 ERA for a playoff team.  In any other year, that would be a slam dunk.  Then you had Buehler going 16-4, striking out 212 and holding opponents to a .199 batting average.  Yet he, too, isn't a finalist.

Neither is Kevin Gausman of the Giants.  San Francisco took a chance on Gausman, signing him to a one-year deal.  I think it's safe to say that it worked out.  Gausman went 14-6 and finished fourth in the NL with 227 strikeouts.  More importantly, he didn't miss a start, pitching 192 innings.  Only four NL pitchers were on the mound for more innings than Gausman, including 40-year-old Adam Wainwright, who went 17-7 and threw three complete games.

An argument could also be made that maybe Josh Hader could've been a finalist.  For a closer to be in the Cy Young conversation, he has to have a downright historic year.  That's how Eric Gagne won.  Hader's 2021 wasn't anything like Gagne's 2003.  But it was still mighty impressive.  He went 34-for-35 in save opportunities and had a ridiculous 102 strikeouts in 58.2 innings.

Hader's Brewers teammate Corbin Burnes is viewed as the favorite by many, mainly on the strength of his 234 strikeouts and league-leading 2.43 ERA.  He only pitched 167 innings, though, 12 less than Scherzer and nearly 50 fewer than Zack Wheeler, who led the league with 213.3.  Wheeler also led the NL in strikeouts (247).  It's those two numbers that boosted his candidacy and pushed him to a top-three finish. 

Wheeler and Burnes are also examples of the new way of looking at starting pitchers.  Wheeler was 14-10 and Burnes, who made only 28 starts, had just 11 wins.  But, as we've seen more and more as the years have gone on, the voters don't care as much about wins anymore.  If they did, Urias would be a finalist.

Urias, of course, isn't a finalist.  And a Dodger 1-2 is also impossible.  But a Dodgers finishing No. 1 is a very realistic possibility.  I'd give Max the edge over Wheeler, with Burnes in third.  Here's how my whole ballot would look (remember, for Cy Young, they go five deep): 1. Scherzer, 2. Wheeler, 3. Burnes, 4. Urias, 5. Buehler.

Over in the American League, I have even less of an idea.  Gerrit Cole led the AL in wins, which is something I had no idea about.  Robbie Ray quietly put together a very solid season that had him as the clubhouse leader heading into September.  And Lance Lynn gave the White Sox the ace that they very much needed (even if their starting rotation is actually pretty solid).

So, which one of the three has the edge?  I honestly have no idea!  Because they all had their struggles down the stretch, which opened the door for the others.  Although, if you look at it, even though none of them stood out compared to the other two, all three stood out compared to the rest of the American League.  They were clearly the three best pitchers in the AL this season (not counting the guy who's gonna win MVP and is in a class by himself).

Although, if you look at just his pitching numbers, a case could actually be made for Ohtani to get some Cy Young support.  I'll talk plenty more about his spectacular 2021 season tomorrow, and the pitching numbers are easy to miss because of what he did with the bat.  But, don't forget, he was voted into the All-Star Game at both positions.  This was the first time he was able to do both for the entire year, and Ohtani made 23 starts on the mound.  He went 9-2, struck out 156, and led the Angels in innings pitched.

Houston's Lance McCullers had quite a season, too.  The Astros, of course, were hurting without him the World Series, which showed how important McCullers was to that team this season.  Verlander didn't pitch at all and Zack Greinke spent a good amount of time on the injured list.  Instead, it was McCullers making 28 starts, going 13-5, and striking out 185 for a Houston team that won yet another division title.

Then there are the three finalists.  I'll start with Cole, the former Astro.  Having seen most of his games, I was surprised to see his name among the finalists.  Frankly, I didn't think he was overly spectacular this season.  (But that might just be because of the contract!)  So, yes, I was surprised to see he led the AL in wins.  But, then again, he was the only starter the Yankees could consistently rely on in that Jekyll & Hyde rotation they had going on.

Lance Lynn went from that pitcher every team tried to get at the trade deadline to a genuine ace on a very strong White Sox staff.  Like Byrnes in the National League, his issue could be lack of innings.  Lynn only made 28 starts and didn't even throw enough innings to qualify for the ERA title.  Which helps explain why his record was just 11-6.  Although, he did strike out 176 and post a 2.69 ERA.

Which leaves us with Robbie Ray, who just may end up winning this thing.  Ray had a career year.  One in which he went from solid No. 2 or 3 starter to genuine No. 1 ace.  His 248 strikeouts were the most in baseball.  His 2.84 ERA was best in the American League.  He also threw a league-leading 193.1 innings.  That's what an ace does.  He takes the ball every five days and gives you six solid innings and a chance to win.  Which the Blue Jays did.  Ray was 13-7 this season.

That, for me, is the deciding factor.  Gerrit Cole did exactly what he was supposed to most of the time, but there were definitely games where he did not.  Ray didn't really have that one really bad game all season.  Which is why, amazingly enough, I give him the nod.  1. Ray, 2. Cole, 3. Lynn, 4. McCullers, 5. Ohtani.