The Magnificent Seven

Barring any unforeseen entrants jumping into the race over the next three weeks, the competition to host the 2036 Olympics is down to seven contenders.  The deadline is Oct. 31, so it's conceivable that another country may submit a bid, but even if not, IOC members will have a quality and diverse selection of potential hosts to choose from.  That decision won't come until 2029, as the IOC is moving back to the old timeline of selecting an Olympic host seven years out (after LA 28 and Brisbane 32 were both awarded 11 years in advance).

What's great about the list of possibilities for 2036 is that they give the IOC just that.  Options.  This looks more like the bid race for 2012 that featured four European capitals and New York as the finalists than for recent Olympics, which were pretty much just given to the only cities willing to host them. 

The Paris Games went a long way towards changing that narrative and the opinion about hosting the Olympics.  They showed you how to do it without spending a massive amount of money building venues that won't be used again.  Use existing venues.  Use the city.  Be creative.  Now, not every city is Paris.  But they set the model for other cities (and countries) to follow.  More importantly, they made hosting the Olympics attractive again.  The clearest evidence of that is the list of cities in the running for the Olympics a decade from now.

That list of seven countries with confirmed interest: Germany, Hungary, India, Qatar, South Africa, South Korea, Turkiye.  Not all of them have announced their bid city (which is no longer required, but I think we're less likely to see for the Summer Olympics than the Winter Games), but some have.  Germany's bid is from Munich.  Istanbul has been bidding for the Olympics for years.  Doha and Budapest are obvious.  India, South Africa and South Korea, meanwhile, haven't declared their official candidate city.

There's one obvious point about that list that's really hard to miss.  Those seven countries are on three different continents.  One of those continents is Africa, the only one to have never hosted an Olympics.  Which is something that the IOC President (who's from Africa herself) would like to amend before her tenure is up.  There are also two Muslim-majority countries.  The Olympics have also never been held in the Arab world.  There's also the world's most populous country (India) and the country that's won the most Olympic medals to have never hosted (Hungary).  So, there's a good chance the 2036 Olympics will be historic no matter where they're held.

In the 130-year history of the Modern Olympics, there's never been more than 12 years between Games in Europe.  It was 12 years between London and Paris, and 2036 will be 12 years since Paris.  Which would lead you to believe Munich or Budapest might be considered an early favorite.  I'm not sure that's necessarily the case, though.  Not when you have Doha champing at the bit for its opportunity.  And not when history is very much not on Munich's side.

It's great that Germany has finally reentered the mix as a potential Olympic host.  Frankly, it's been far too long.  And they're committed.  They've expressed interest in hosting not just the 2036 Olympics, but 2040 and 2044, as well.  All of which are problematic years for a Munich bid.  None of which is Munich's fault.  But, still, do you want to celebrate the centennial of the 1936 Berlin Games (the Jesse Owens Gams that were phenomenal in so many respects, but problematic in so many others) or World War II by returning to Germany?

Munich also has its own Olympic history to overcome.  The 1972 terrorist attack was the darkest moment in Olympic history.  And it's, unfortunately, the first thing that comes to mind when anybody thinks about those Munich Games.  Munich is a great city.  I've been there.  They deserve a chance to rewrite their Olympic legacy.  But, whether it's fair or not, history isn't on their side.

Budapest, meanwhile, will make for a phenomenal Olympic city once it finally hosts.  They're ready, too.  Budapest has hosted so many World Championships in so many Olympic sports in recent years.  All of which were spectacular.  All of which were extremely well run.  It was Budapest backing out that led to the historic Paris-LA double awarding for 2024 & 2028.  In a way, they did the Olympic movement a solid with that move in 2017.  It's time for the Olympic movement to pay Budapest back.

Doha is another Olympic host-city-in-waiting.  For all the legitimate concerns about the summer heat in the Middle East and Qatar's human rights record, it does seem inevitable that Doha will host the first Olympics in the region (and possibly become the first Arab Olympic host).  It even seems probable that if they don't host in 2036, they'll get either 2040 or 2044, with South Africa getting the other.

Make no mistake, Africa WILL be awarded its first Olympics during Kirsty Coventry's IOC presidency.  The (final?) Youth Olympics will take place next month in Dakar, Senegal.  It will be the first Olympic event held on the continent.  The 2029 World Athletics Championships will be in Nairobi, Kenya.  The success of those two events (as well as the 2030 World Cup in Morocco) could determine when Africa's first Olympics is.

Although, awarding the 2036 Games to South Africa (the only African country with the finances and existing infrastructure to realistically host) would make for something pretty cool.  The 2016 Olympics were in South America.  In 2021, they were in Asia.  The 2024 Games were in Europe.  The next two will be in North America and Australia.  Going to Africa in 2036 would mean that six consecutive Olympics took place on all six inhabited continents.  That, and the first Olympics in Africa, are pretty compelling reasons to go to South Africa.

Likewise, there are compelling reasons to go to India.  For a country with such a large population to have never seriously been considered as a potential Olympic host really is pretty crazy.  And, to be fair, there are a lot of questions about India as a potential host.  So, I don't think 2036 is realistic.  However, the 2030 Commonwealth Games will be in India.  If successful, those Commonwealth Games (and the related infrastructure) could be a springboard towards a future Olympic bid.  Just like how the excellent 2007 Pan Am Games helped Rio land the 2016 Olympics two years later.

Then there's perennial Olympic bidder Istanbul.  Istanbul will bid for the Olympics until it's finally selected to host, which I do think is coming eventually.  Just not in 2036.  Not with these other heavy hitters in contention.  And Istanbul boasts one thing no other major city in the world can.  It's in two continents!  You could have the Olympics in both Europe AND Asia at the same time!  The Olympics need to go to Istanbul for that reason alone.

Our seventh and final confirmed candidate is South Korea.  I'd imagine it would be for a return to 1988 Olympic host Seoul.  People definitely got East Asia fatigue after those three Olympics in a row that started when South Korea hosted the 2018 Winter Games in PyeongChang.  I think seeing them host again 18 years later is a longshot, though.  If they do choose an Asian city, it'll be Doha.

We're still more than three years away from finding out the host of the 2036 Olympics, which will return to the previous format of actually voting among the different cities rather than just designating a preferred host and having the rest of the IOC members essentially rubber stamp it.  It'll be a great race heading into that vote in 2029.  There's no shortage of quality choices, either.  All seven options for the 2036 Olympics are great.  And we have Paris 2024 to thank for that.  Paris made hosting the Olympics cool again.  The 2036 race is proof of that.