NFL Picks, Super Bowl LX

We've finally made it!  After two weeks of analysis and every random stat under the sun, Super Bowl LX is upon us.  The Patriots will either be alone with the most wins in Super Bowl history or the most losses in Super Bowl history (that's what happens when you have four more appearances than anybody else).  The Seahawks will either get a small measure redemption for one of the worst play calls in Super Bowl history or lose to New England with the Lombardi Trophy on the line for the second time.

Also, a message to all of those "anybody but the Chiefs" people.  Congratulations, you got what you wanted!  Instead of the Chiefs, we're back to the Patriots (the team everybody hated and was sick of before Kansas City).  So, good job on that one!

The domination of those two teams really is incredible if you think about it.  Kansas City went to five out of six.  New England went to four out of five before that.  Now they've made it again.  So, it's been either the Patriots or Chiefs representing the AFC in 10 of the last 12 Super Bowls.  The only exceptions were Super Bowl 50 (when New England lost the AFC Championship Game) and Super Bowl LIV (when Kansas City lost the AFC Championship Game).  If those two AFC Championship Game results were reversed, it'd be 12 straight Super Bowls between them.

Is this the start of another dynasty era in New England?  It's too early to say.  Drake Maye will become the youngest quarterback to start a Super Bowl since Dan Marino, but Super Bowl XIX is the only one Marino ever played in.  At the time, it was just assumed the Dolphins would eventually make it back, but it never happened.  I'm not saying the same thing will happen to Maye.  I suspect it won't.  But you never know.  (People sure didn't think Super Bowl XXXVI would be the start of nearly two decades of Bradicheck domination.)

This is an incredibly important game for the Patriots franchise simply because of who's not here.  Tom Brady's in the broadcast booth and Bill Belichick's coaching college.  New England made it back here without them.  Their legacy cannot be taken away, and I don't think anyone wants to.  But the Patriots also needed to show that they could get to a Super Bowl without Bradicheck.  Which they have.

And how can you not feel incredible for Sam Darnold?  This is a guy who was passed around the league.  Even the bad teams decided he wasn't good enough.  That certainly wasn't the case (and further proof that maybe the Jets are the problem, not the quarterbacks).  After what he did last year in Minnesota, there was a question if he'd be able to follow it up.  He did and then some!  There's no question anymore about whether Sam Darnold is a viable NFL starter.

You know Seattle is relishing the opportunity to play New England again, too.  They were on the verge of repeating as Super Bowl champions until that fateful Malcolm Butler interception (which started the Bradicheck 2.0 run).  They've had to live with that for 11 years.  Beating the Patriots this time won't take that away or change the result, of course.  But it would be at least a small measure of revenge.

One of these teams will also be one of the more unlikely champions in recent memory.  Which is only fitting for this crazy season.  Both teams missed the playoffs last year.  At the start of the season, nobody had either one of them playing in the Super Bowl--let alone both!  They both lost in Week 1.  New England was 1-2.  Then they both went on massive winning streaks that got them to this point.  (They've lost a combined one game since mid-November!)

Seahawks (16-3) vs Patriots (17-3): Seattle-Both defenses have been dominant throughout the playoffs, so it would be wise to take the under.  New England has allowed a grand total of two touchdowns in three postseason games.  The Broncos scored on their second drive of the AFC Championship Game and not again.  And, yes, the Seahawks gave up 27 points in the NFC Championship Game.  But their defense came up big when it needed to in the fourth quarter, stopping the Rams on that final drive.

With that in mind, would it surprise anyone if a big defensive play impacts the game?  Whether it's a key stop or a big sack or a turnover, you know these defenses will make a difference.  Especially when the margin between the two teams is so small.  I'm not only expecting it to be low-scoring, I'm expecting field position to matter.  Neither offense is quick-strike.  They're both fine with long drives that eat a lot of clock.  And neither coach is afraid to kick a field goal.

Of course, the Seahawks aren't afraid to be aggressive when the situation calls for it, either.  Going for two against the Rams in the regular season played a big role in them getting here.  And, let's not forget, they have an All-Pro return man in Rashid Shaheed.  Mike Vrabel will have to take that into account with his decision making.  And Shaheed's presence could end up in his being a little more aggressive than he otherwise would've been.

Let's not forget, either, that neither quarterback has been here before.  Darnold has at least experienced the Super Bowl as a backup in San Francisco, but he didn't play a snap behind Brock Purdy.  Still, having gone through the routine and the two weeks of buildup will have to help.  As does the fact that he's a veteran.  It's the biggest game of Darnold's life.  Obviously.  But is the stage too big for him?  I don't think so.

Will the stage be too big for Maye?  So far, nothing has fazed him in his two-year NFL career.  This is the Super Bowl, though.  For New England to have any chance, Maye will need to play like the MVP runner-up he is.  If he can't or doesn't play up to the moment, that Seahawks defense might eat him alive.  I'm not saying the Patriots need him to win the game for them.  But he can't lose it.

Ultimately, though, I think the X factor will be the Seattle offense.  For all the talk about the Seahawks defense, it's easy to forget they've scored 72 points in two playoff games.  Jaxson Smith-Njigba is also the best player on either team.  Don't think the Offensive Player of the Year will just be silent.  Darnold, SJN and the Seahawks offense will do enough to claim an unlikely Super Bowl title and bring the Lombardi Trophy home to the 12s.

Conference Championships: 1-1
Playoffs: 8-4
Overall: 179-104-1