Australian Open 2026

My favorite thing about this year's Australian Open already happened.  After the US Open moved the mixed doubles tournament to the week before the tournament proper, you knew Australia would come up with something of its own.  What they came up with was a One-Point Tournament, where pros, celebrities, random amateurs, men, women all competed against each other in a single-elimination event.  It was exactly like it sounds.  Each match was one point.  You serve and hit an ace, you win.  You serve and hit an error, you lose.  Anyway, some local dude beat Jannik Sinner and went on to win the whole thing!

Sinner may not have won the One-Point Tournament, but don't expect it to have any impact on his pursuit of a third straight Australian Open title.  It was here in 2024 that he beat Novak Djokovic (badly) in the semifinals and started this new era in men's tennis where he and Carlos Alcaraz have split the last eight Grand Slam titles between them (four apiece).  Sinner has to come into the tournament as the favorite to make it three in a row.  Alcaraz, after all, has never been past the quarterfinals here.  But to say he's motivated would be an understatement.

Alcaraz has already done so much in his career, and he got back to No. 1 after winning the US Open last year.  And he hasn't been shy about how much he wants this title.  It's the only one he's missing for a career Grand Slam.  Alcaraz is still just 22.  If he wins, he'll become the youngest man to complete the career Grand Slam.  He's obviously got plenty of time to win the Australian Open, but he really wants it here.  (Sinner will look to finish off his career Grand Slam at the French Open.)

At the risk of sounding like a broken record, it sure looks like we're on a collision course for another Sinner vs. Alcaraz Grand Slam final.  Should it happen, that would make it four Grand Slams in a row where they've met for the title.  And, frankly, I'm not sure I see anybody getting in either of their way.  Well, except for maybe one guy.

We didn't know it at the time, but Sinner's win over Djokovic in the 2024 semifinals really was a changing of the guard.  Novak's still looking for that 25th Grand Slam title, which would leave him alone as the all-time leader.  Simply by playing in the tournament, he'll tie another all-time record.  This will be Djokovic's 81st appearance in a Grand Slam, matching Roger Federer and Feliciano Lopez.  Assuming he's healthy, he'll break that record in Paris.  (He's been to at least the semifinals in 53 of the previous 80, an insane percentage!)

Djokovic can reach two other milestones during the tournament.  A first-round victory would be his 100th at Melbourne Park, making this the third Grand Slam where he'll have 100 wins (which is kinda odd, considering he's a 10-time champion).  He needs three wins to become the first player ever with 400 career Grand Slam match victories.  If those numbers sound insane, it's because they are.  As are his 10 Australian Open titles.

Is Djokovic a favorite to make it 11?  No.  But a run wouldn't surprise anyone.  And, don't forget, he made the semifinals last year, but had to retire after losing the first set to Alexander Zverev.  If he wasn't injured, we very well might've seen a Djokovic vs. Sinner final in 2025.  This year, they'd face each other in the semifinals should they both get there.  Should that happen, you'd have to think it'd be Sinner's match to lose.

Zverev is worth mentioning, too.  He was the finalist last year and blew a two-set lead in the 2024 semifinals.  Zverev has the Olympic gold from Tokyo, but still hasn't gotten over the hump at a Slam.  Could this finally be his time?  Unfortunately, I don't think so.  Not when he'll have to be Alcaraz in the semis and either Sinner or Djokovic in the final.

There's also somebody looking to complete a career Grand Slam on the women's side--Iga Swiatek.  Last year, Swiatek reached the semifinals for the second time in her career, losing a third-set tiebreak to Madison Keys.  As fate would have it, that could be the semifinal matchup again this year.  After that great semifinal they played in 2025, you almost want to see the rematch.  Although, that's assuming Keys gets through the American gauntlet.

Last year, an American woman made the final at all four Grand Slams.  It's actually five in a row going back to Jessica Pegula at the 2024 US Open.  Pegula, Keys and Amanda Anisimova (who's been to the last two Grand Slam finals) are all in the same section of the draw, where they're joined by 2020 Australian Open champion Sofia Kenin.  The good news is it looks good for an American to reach the semifinals from that section of the draw.  The bad news is they'll likely have to take out each other to get there.

The other American woman who made a Grand Slam final last year was Coco Gauff, who won the French Open.  She's the No. 3 seed and on the opposite side of the draw.  Gauff followed up her 2023 US Open title by reaching the semifinals here, so a deep run wouldn't be a surprise at all.  Her second-round match could be the one worth watching, though.  Coco Gauff's big breakthrough was at Wimbledon in 2019, where she reached the fourth round.  In the first round, her first-ever Grand Slam match, the 15-year-old Gauff upset Venus Williams.  If they both win their opening matches here, Coco would play the now 45-year-old Venus in the second round.  A full-circle moment to be sure.

Of course, the one name I'm yet to mention is the best women's tennis player on the planet right now.  Not to mention the best hardcourt player.  That's World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka, the two-time champion who saw her 20-match Australian Open winning streak snapped by Keys in last year's final.  Sabalenka has been to the last six Grand Slam finals played on hardcourts.  There's no reason to think she won't make it seven.

Sabalenka is probably a bigger favorite than Sinner is.  Especially when you look at her draw and don't really see any names that should challenge her.  Even a potential semifinal matchup against Gauff she should easily handle.  And, if Sabalenka cruises into the final (which wouldn't be a surprise), a third title in four years could easily be on order.  In fact, I think the only one who can prevent that might be Swiatek.

So, yes, I'm being boring and going with the chalk.  But going with the chalk is sometimes the wise bet.  Because Jannik Sinner and Aryna Sabalenka have just been that dominant both on hardcourts and at the Australian Open over the past several years.  Expect that to continue in 2026.